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Sir Puntalot

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  1. Like
  2. Haha
    Sir Puntalot got a reaction from heniek31 in ** PL Meet Up and Poker Champs - 1st February 2020 - Resorts World Birmingham** *****£500 Added*****   
    @aliando confirmed for No Limit - anything could happen now!  
  3. Like
    Sir Puntalot got a reaction from heniek31 in ** PL Meet Up and Poker Champs - 1st February 2020 - Resorts World Birmingham** *****£500 Added*****   
    List of runners updated, added value split now confirmed and trophies have been ordered.   
  4. Thanks
    Sir Puntalot got a reaction from Mike O’D in Road to the Cheltenham Foxhunters   
    to Punters Lounge @Mike O’D   
  5. Like
    Sir Puntalot got a reaction from avongirl in ** PL Meet Up and Poker Champs - 1st February 2020 - Resorts World Birmingham** *****£500 Added*****   
    @aliando confirmed for No Limit - anything could happen now!  
  6. Like
    Sir Puntalot reacted to runadrum in ** PL Meet Up and Poker Champs - 1st February 2020 - Resorts World Birmingham** *****£500 Added*****   
    Will be there for both tournaments and looking forward to it
    ?
  7. Like
    Sir Puntalot reacted to cdasteer in ** PL Meet Up and Poker Champs - 1st February 2020 - Resorts World Birmingham** *****£500 Added*****   
    Hi all,
    I’m Teaulc’s son, looking forward to seeing you all again & hopefully the old man doesn’t win this time!
    I’ll be playing the no limit holdem. 
  8. Like
    Sir Puntalot reacted to froment in Betting exchange question   
    Hello, Hurco; welcome to the forum!
    Your question is not silly; while they say that people are born with natural ability to swim, and then they lose that ability within first weeks of life, I highly doubt we are born with natural knowledge of betting exchanges, so some of us have to ask it sooner or later. I mean, all of us in this forum had such a question.
    With your example, there is indeed not difference between exchange and "normal bet platform". However, betting exchnage offers you a possibility to trade your bets: to place the opposite bet before the event ended, so you lock in a profit - or, more usually, in a loss - regardless of final outcomeof the match.
    Let's see how; in your example, you laid 0-0 at odds of 4.00 (insanely good odds for laying 0-0, if you ask me) with stake of 10 units, and liability of 30 units.
    Odds for 0-0 tend to shorten during the match, untill they reach 1.01 in closing moment. After quarter of an hour of play, you're dissapointed with performance of your team, so you decide to trade out. By that time, odds have shortened to 3.50.
    You place the opposite bet now: you back 0-0, with stake of 11.43. So, you're risking 11.43 units to win 28.58 units.
    If they manage to find their way to net, you win 10 units from lay bet, and you lose 11.43 units from back bet; net loss 1.43 units. If, however, no goal is scored by the end of the match, you lose 30 units from lay bet, and you win 28.58 units from back bet; again, 1.42 units net loss. So, you were able to trade out when you saw that match does not develop as you expected, and instead of losing 30 units, you lost only 1.24 units.
    Let's say that you laid the draw, at odds of 3.00, with stake of 10 units, so liability is 20 units. The goalkeeper has bad day, so there is a goal minutes into the match, and it sends draw odds to 8.00. Now, you back the draw, with stake of 3.75 units, for possible profit of 26.25 units.
    If match does not end in draw, you win 10 units from lay bet, and lose 3.75 units from back bet; net profit 6.25 units. If bad keep team manages to claw back to the draw, you lose 20 units from lay bet, and you win 26.25 units from back bet; net profit again 6.25 units. Thus, you were able to lock in profit after first goal, regardless of how the match will develop further.
    That example is known as "lay the draw" strategy; once profitable, it is worn out nowadays, and it is not easy to take profit from that.
    This works the same way if you first place the back bet - you need subsequently to place lay bet, or you can trade more than once during the same match - place more than one back bet or lay bet at different odds; if back odds are higher than lay odds, you make profit, otherwise, you make loss.
    Stakes above are calculated using formula:
    Back stake * Back odds = Lay stake * Lay odds
    and it does not incorporate comission at betting exchange, you need to deduct it from your winnings; Betfair has 7% basic commission.
    Now, bookmakers started offering "cash out" option, which is very similar to this trading, as long as your bet still has the ability to win. Once it is losing, of course they won't offer you possibility to decrease your losing stake.
    Hope it was understandable... Good luck with your trading!
  9. Like
    Sir Puntalot got a reaction from Gazza61 in Non-League Predictions > January 18th   
    to Punters Lounge @Gazza61   
  10. Thanks
    Sir Puntalot got a reaction from Matty1290 in £100 to £10,000 Hunt (40% Complete)   
    to Punters Lounge @Matty1290   
  11. Like
    Sir Puntalot reacted to Torque in £100 to £10,000 Hunt (40% Complete)   
    Hi @Matty1290, and as @Sir Puntalot said, welcome. I probably should do what you suggest, but where's the glory in that! I might take my initial stake out at some point - that way I'm not losing 'my' money, but other than that I'll probably carry on until I hit a loser. Most likely the next bet for this thread will come from the Australian Open which starts in a few days - I'll be hoping there aren't any big upsets and that the conditions improve as poor air quality could lead to some strange results.
  12. Like
    Sir Puntalot got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Prediction - Performance ELO difference   
    @ercan3985  to Punters Lounge.  
    You're initially looking at Prediction ratings, but the 2nd screenshot is performance ratings which are after the match, that's why.  
    Please read here to understand the difference https://www.punterslounge.com/elo-football-ratings   
  13. Haha
    Sir Puntalot got a reaction from heniek31 in ** PL Meet Up and Poker Champs - 1st February 2020 - Resorts World Birmingham** *****£500 Added*****   
    Remember this dealer from the 2018 Event?   
  14. Haha
    Sir Puntalot got a reaction from Bart(UK) in ** PL Meet Up and Poker Champs - 1st February 2020 - Resorts World Birmingham** *****£500 Added*****   
    Finally got his trousers back.  
  15. Haha
  16. Like
    Sir Puntalot got a reaction from LIKE2FISH in ** PL Meet Up and Poker Champs - 1st February 2020 - Resorts World Birmingham** *****£500 Added*****   
    List of runners updated, added value split now confirmed and trophies have been ordered.   
  17. Like
    Sir Puntalot reacted to swampster in ** PL Meet Up and Poker Champs - 1st February 2020 - Resorts World Birmingham** *****£500 Added*****   
    I'm a definite now for this. Will come up for the PLO and NLHE and stay over. 
  18. Thanks
    Sir Puntalot got a reaction from Villa Chris in Racing Chat - Wed Jan 1st   
    to Punters Lounge @Villa Chris   
  19. Like
    Sir Puntalot reacted to Fader in PDC World Championship   
    ooh, Price got abit lucky last night. None of the top dogs have really come out flying yet. Another full day of darts today, which is comforting in this awful bloody weather. Darren Webster gets the matches underway against Yuki Yamada. Webster in his last 5 years here has an average of 91.14 and that is including his 85 last year in a round 1 exit to Van Der Voort. In general, he gets 90s scores. He faces Yamada who managed 85 in beating a very awful Meikle.
    Next up I'm taking Clayton to beat Dekker (-1.5) Dekker managed just an 84 average when falling over the line against Joyce. The 16th seed Clayton should be able to win this one no worse off than 3-1. Into the evening and I'll take my outright tip Asp to beat Baggish 3-0. Baggish managed just 84.94 against Boulton and you'd expect Aspinall to want to impress tonight.
    I'll take Hopp to beat Van Der Pas next. Van Der Pas still doesn't look right and should not be here really. How he managed to win that match against Clemens I don't know. I think Hopp beats him tonight.
    6.5pts D.Webster (-1.5 sets) to beat Y.Yamada 8/13 betfred
    4pts J.Clayton (-1.5 sets) to beat J.Dekker evens blacktype
    4pts N.Aspinall to beat D.Baggish 3-0 11/8 betfair
    1pt accy - Webster (-1.5 sets) Clayton (-1.5) King, Evans 7/1 blacktype
    0.5pt accy - all of the above + Hopp and Kurz 32/1 blacktype
  20. Like
    Sir Puntalot reacted to RC90 in PDC World Championship   
    Top stuff today Fader. Nice one! Ton up for me on your tips the last few days. Keep em coming laaayyydd
     
  21. Thanks
    Sir Puntalot got a reaction from LIKE2FISH in ** PL Meet Up and Poker Champs - 1st February 2020 - Resorts World Birmingham** *****£500 Added*****   
    Added Value & Trophies announced in post 1, AV split to be announced later.  
  22. Haha
    Sir Puntalot got a reaction from LIKE2FISH in ** PL Meet Up and Poker Champs - 1st February 2020 - Resorts World Birmingham** *****£500 Added*****   
    Nobody wants anything to do with your pole!   
  23. Like
    Sir Puntalot reacted to StevieDay1983 in ** PL Meet Up and Poker Champs - 1st February 2020 - Resorts World Birmingham** *****£500 Added*****   
    Punters Lounge Poker Meet-Up virgin here! Go easy on me! I bruise easily!
  24. Like
    Sir Puntalot got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in ** PL Meet Up and Poker Champs - 1st February 2020 - Resorts World Birmingham** *****£500 Added*****   
    Ok, I've been holding this info back for a while and this PL Poker Championships has been hastily arranged because of it. I held this info back because I didn't want it to appear to be attention seeking, but here it is...
    I got diagnosed with advanced Cancer a while back which is now terminal and nobody knows how many more of these I'll see. However, knowing the stubborn twat I am, I'll still be around in 10+ years annoying everyone going all in with 26o!  
    I'd REALLY LOVE it if everyone turned up and left APAT until 2021. I don't look ill and strangely don't feel ill and I know this will be shocking news to a number of people who have known me years, but I'm every bit the same sarcastic twat you've all met previously and in great form!  

    Let's make this one to remember, no morbid stuff, just poker, alcohol, shits and giggles.  
  25. Like
    Sir Puntalot got a reaction from LIKE2FISH in ** PL Meet Up and Poker Champs - 1st February 2020 - Resorts World Birmingham** *****£500 Added*****   
    Ok, I've been holding this info back for a while and this PL Poker Championships has been hastily arranged because of it. I held this info back because I didn't want it to appear to be attention seeking, but here it is...
    I got diagnosed with advanced Cancer a while back which is now terminal and nobody knows how many more of these I'll see. However, knowing the stubborn twat I am, I'll still be around in 10+ years annoying everyone going all in with 26o!  
    I'd REALLY LOVE it if everyone turned up and left APAT until 2021. I don't look ill and strangely don't feel ill and I know this will be shocking news to a number of people who have known me years, but I'm every bit the same sarcastic twat you've all met previously and in great form!  

    Let's make this one to remember, no morbid stuff, just poker, alcohol, shits and giggles.  
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