Prediction - Performance ELO difference

[ercan3985]

Hi everyone. I’m trying to find a pattern based on past elo values for a few weeks. Just noticed something that prediction and performance elo values are different. I bet on Burton, Lincoln and Oldham yesterday because elo values were on their side. But now it shows different sides and different values. Got some screencaps for you to understand easily. Sorry for resloution, had to take a photo.

 

Regards and best of luck. 

 

 

[Sir Puntalot]

@ercan3985  to Punters Lounge.  

You're initially looking at Prediction ratings, but the 2nd screenshot is performance ratings which are after the match, that's why.  

Please read here to understand the difference https://www.punterslounge.com/elo-football-ratings   

[ercan3985]

1 hour ago, Sir Puntalot said:

@ercan3985  to Punters Lounge.  

You're initially looking at Prediction ratings, but the 2nd screenshot is performance ratings which are after the match, that's why.  

Please read here to understand the difference https://www.punterslounge.com/elo-football-ratings   

I learnt it after posting, sorry for that. But there is also something i can't understand. Burton was favorite before the match and won the match. But mk dons got more elo points. Does calculation include shot on goal, ball possesion etc.? And is there any source we can find pre-match elo values? In my opinion those values might be more helpful to see a pattern or building a betting strategy.

 

Thanks a lot for your answer. Best regards. 

[Grumbledog]

Have read the forum and followed this site for quite some time. Very beneficial and informative for sure. One of the best!

This however is the first time I've ever asked or posted anything.

My question concerns the ELO rating. On the face of it they seem very good indeed. I've used the ratings as a guide and have been rewarded.

But how can we check performance? Where can we get the predictions ratings for say the 19th October 2019 or the 2nd November 2019, etc?

There's a performance tab one can click and check but it doesn't seem to bear any relation to what was originally predicted.

I mean, prior to kick off you can see the 4 game and 2 game rating for United, and you can compare United's rating against City's 4 game and 2 game rating.

But then when results are in you see a different rating (which I believe is the rating for the actual game they've just played).

Surely it'd be more useful, helpful and productive if we could see the original rating so we can examine how it good a rating it really was?

We get some sort of performance check, sure, but it could be better, in my view, for as I say checking the original rating and seeing for ourselves has got to be a better more valid performance check, don't you think?

Or am I missing something? Maybe a full proper performance with the original ratings for the games in question is available somewhere or somehow?

If so I'd be very grateful if you could point me to where I can find such. If not then is it maybe something that can be sorted?

Also, am I the only one to ever ask this question? Surely not: can't believe I am. That said I haven't seen anyone else raise the matter in this forum.

Anyway and either way thanks again in advance for your attention to this matter. 

 

 

 

[Sir Puntalot]

39 minutes ago, Grumbledog said:

Have read the forum and followed this site for quite some time. Very beneficial and informative for sure. One of the best!

This however is the first time I've ever asked or posted anything.

My question concerns the ELO rating. On the face of it they seem very good indeed. I've used the ratings as a guide and have been rewarded.

But how can we check performance? Where can we get the predictions ratings for say the 19th October 2019 or the 2nd November 2019, etc?

There's a performance tab one can click and check but it doesn't seem to bear any relation to what was originally predicted.

I mean, prior to kick off you can see the 4 game and 2 game rating for United, and you can compare United's rating against City's 4 game and 2 game rating.

But then when results are in you see a different rating (which I believe is the rating for the actual game they've just played).

Surely it'd be more useful, helpful and productive if we could see the original rating so we can examine how it good a rating it really was?

We get some sort of performance check, sure, but it could be better, in my view, for as I say checking the original rating and seeing for ourselves has got to be a better more valid performance check, don't you think?

Or am I missing something? Maybe a full proper performance with the original ratings for the games in question is available somewhere or somehow?

If so I'd be very grateful if you could point me to where I can find such. If not then is it maybe something that can be sorted?

Also, am I the only one to ever ask this question? Surely not: can't believe I am. That said I haven't seen anyone else raise the matter in this forum.

Anyway and either way thanks again in advance for your attention to this matter. 

 

 

 

Please read here to understand the difference https://www.punterslounge.com/elo-football-ratings   

Happy to answer queries after.