rainz

Today im taking Fritz Cressy first set over 12.5 games at Unibet 2.4 odds. For me its more like 50% to see TieBreaker in first, pure Value.
 
 
 

Let's move to the other side of the Atlantic and specifically to the Challenger of Orlando. There are two matches I like a lot and hopefully there will be no drama in neither one.
Christopher Eubanks to beat Aleksandar Kovacevic at 1.44 with bet365
Christian Harrison to beat Gonzalo Villanueva at 1.35 with bet365
Eubanks and Harrison are superior players than their opponents and I don't think they will face many problems. I expect two easy wins.
Good luck.

I'm flying to Paris in a few hours! ????

Just realised I was looking at the UE's for one set not the whole match  

Come on Sascha, beat the young Spaniard ??

Tsitsipas had the air as he trudged off of a player that knew he was nowhere near the level required to compete at this tournament. Rune played very well regardless of what Tsitsipas was doing, but I'll be surprised if he goes much further and certainly his talk about winning the tournament is premature to say the least.

Might have been better for the handicap if she hadn't...

I can definitely see that happening if Tsitsipas has his usual drop, Rune is definitely better than both Ymer and Kolar.

What do you think guys about total games in Norrie - Kachanov match? Expecting a long one? I’d go with > 35.5 or > 36.5. Can’t see a straight match here. At least 1 7:5 or 7:6 is also very real.

His backhand is just a weak shot. He needs to do something about it, otherwise he's hit his peak. When you combine his backhand with his poor return game, he actually deserves a lot of credit for having got a far as he's got. His serve and forehand are able a lot of the time to compensate for those deficiencies, although I wouldn't say either were great just now and that combined with Kolar raising his level is probably why it ended up being such a close match. Tsitsipas definitely got away with one there, it should have gone to a final set and I don't know if Tsitsipas would have won that.

Goffin delivered

Fun fact: i only was able to watch first set. Eurosport in Serbia canceled rest of the match due to cycling. In 1st set Goffin was slow by every meaning of the word..like he didn't had breakfast in the morning. Obviosly,rest of the match was better for him.
As for the Djere - Medvedev match..thank God for dropping odds on Djere. It saved me from lost bet.   I've watched 2nd and 3rd set..i have to say that,no matter of result,Medvedev didn't impress me. He is lucky with the very soft draw he is given. Ramos Vinollas would beatin' him with ease..

I'm going with one bet for tomorrow since i feel that odds will drop.

G.Dimitrov to beat D.Schwartzmann @1,65 local bookie soccerbet

Dimitrov is in such a nice shape this spring..good run of results,while i couldn't say the same for Diego. I watched them both over this clay-court season..Schwartzmann i watched in Rome against Kecmanovic. With Kecmanovic it was a real thriller and Diego eventually came on top only because of better fitness..
And i have to mention that Dimitrov outplayed him easy recently in Madrid. Yes,i know,this is RG,but let me tell you - this Paris clay is not that slow and ball bounces lower which favors Dimitrov's game..i just don't see what changed since Madrid for Argentinian and expect another win for Grisha.

Rain delay is brutal. Laaksonen on a roll and stopped. Begu on a roll and stopped. Very annoying.

yeah went with gasquet today also , if torque trusts him I'll trust him too. Still a bit scared of how his physique will hold up, but you can t bet anything else than him winning with the insane french crowd behind him in RG. Plus the odds are more than juicy.

Sadly Thiem is right now a whipping boy

Sadly Thiem is right now a whipping boy

Alright, it's the French Open time!
Who Will Go Further - Novak Djokovic to beat Carlos Alcaraz at 1.90 with Bet365
Despite Alcaraz being such a great force recently, I think that Djokovic is the stronger player in the Bo5 format still and that he has an edge going into this tournament. His Rome performance was much better than in Madrid and I think that he's peaking for the occasion, while Alcaraz is bound to receive a setback at some point, it just happens that way more often than not. At 1.90, this looks worth a shot to me.
Ons Jabeur to win the 3rd quarter at 3.50 with Bet365
Jil Teichmann to win the 4th quarter at 8.00 with Bet365
Two in-form players and the withdrawal from Teichmann in Rome looked more like a precaution to me. Two wilder punts, of course, but I like the odds.
Aslan Karatsev to beat Camilo Ugo Carabelli at 1.75 with BetVictor
It's form against class here, and I'll go with class. Karatsev has to start caring finally and, honestly, many of the matches he's lost on clay so far were reasonably tight and against tougher opposition than Carabelli. With so much on the line, I think there's every chance he'll raise his level and show his class again. Wouldn't back below 1.57.
Donna Vekic to beat Mirjam Bjorklund at 1.57 with Pinnacle
While I'm not ecstatic to back Vekic, I think this is a good price for her to continue her resurgence against Bjorklund, who'll be making a GS debut and who should find this more challenging than Buzarnescu, who Bjorklund beat to qualify in a pretty wild match that could've gone either way despite the scoreline. 
Stanislas Warinka to beat Corentin Moutet at 1.70 with Pinnacle
Wawrinka was struggling and, to be fair, we still don't know if he can last 5 sets. Moutet has been pretty awful recently, though, and he can be all over the place when things stop going his way. I've seen some of Moutet's recent matches and the odds just seem to be too favorable for him to my liking.
Nuria Parrizas-Diaz (-1.5 sets) to beat Leolia Jeanjean at 1.67 with Pinnacle
This looks like one of the bigger WTA mismatches in the first round, Jeanjean has no results at all at this level and there's every chance that she'll just error herself out. NPD has made a lot of progress recently and has plenty of experience with these match-ups.
Christian Garin to beat Tommy Paul at 1.80 with Unibet
Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Maxime Cressy at 1.42 with Pinnacle
David Goffin (-1.5 sets) to beat Jiri Lehecka at 1.78 with Unibet
Not much to be said for these one honestly, I think that the odds are just about worth it, but wouldn't go much below, particularly on Garin. Lehecka was awful last time out and Goffin has already beaten him in this season, while Cressy just shouldn't do this unless Basilashvili breaks mentally.

Well, the most striking element is that we now have the ATP and the WTA odds turned around from what we had in so many previous years that I've already lost the count. We always had one big ATP favourite heading into Grand Slams and plenty of long shots, while the WTA was a right mess, only perhaps when Barty was in and in form (after Williams times). Now, the ATP is quite open, while the WTA has one big favorite in Swiatek. Hilarious.

If I look at my tennis betting over a year, there are a few weird patterns that you see;
1) It is almost impossible to find 3 winners in a treble at odds of 1.7+
2) 75% of a 128 draw field (96 players out of 128) have lost after 2 rounds, and the better players are doing the majority of the winning here. SO look at players who win a high percentage of 1st round matches, as well as those who are losing the majority of their matches in the 1st/2nd round. Obviously a nice matchup is somebody that wins a lot versus someone who loses a lot.
3) As you get to 3rd round and beyond, it becomes tricky. Average players who get this far are doing something right this week. So for me, later rounds are far more tricky than early rounds.
4) A question. Can you make money taking low priced doubles? Basically taking a tiny % of players and backing them almost every time they step one the court, in the early rounds of big tournaments. I think you can.  If you would back Djoko and Alcaraz as a double in every early round match they play, I think you win over a year. If you would take the top 10 (ATP), and take 5 doubles in the 1st and 2nd round of every big draw tournament, you would make money.
5) One of the biggest traps we face is something called the favorite longshot-bias. We tend to overvalue "longshots" and relatively undervalue favorites and it costs us in losses.
 
Lol I just saw that Tiechmann retired and Bonzi lost, so I turned a profit instead of laying an egg. 
 
I think Auger-Aliasimme gets demolished by Djoko. Sure, he's been working hard on clay. Physically he looks in brilliant shape, but his game is just so limited (when compared to really talented players), with no finesse or variety.  Perfect matchup for Djoko here.
 

In the ATP I see upsets. Ruud at 1.4 against Shapavalov is a joke. Will be going for Shapavalov here. He showed me something last night in 1st game of 2nd set, after having been demolished 1st set. I think it was a 12 minute game, where he didn't back down, went for his shots and played incredibly well, against the greatest clay court player of all time.
I think Djokovic and Zverev cruise through, will take them as a double, both to win in straight sets. Just too good for their opponents.  
I think Tsitsipas is vulnerable and Sinner will beat him. Full support of the Italian crowd, will make it hostile, and Tsitsipas doesn't seem to like it. Maybe with all the noise, he can't hear instructions from his dad?

I think WAW has the name, and Djere has the power these days. 

Goffin lost, Schwartzman lost, Carreno lost
Now I have seen everything
Tsitsipas was close too... Little break for me. This ATP Rome is crazy

Wawrinka must be given time to get back to his best on the circuit. 
His return is already a great victory for him. He almost lost in the first round, but he showed his will. 
Today, it seems even harder. Djere should win. 

Stan the man or also known as the running meatball...

Two totally inform players today. Jessica Pegula going up against Samsonova should be very comfortable.  Pegula making the final in Madrid, should have too much clay court prowess.
Second match is Alexandrova to beat Stephens. Stephens knocked out 1st round in Madrid,  Alexandrova with a great run in Madrid and with excellent form. My 3rd low priced match of the day is Jabeur to beat Cirstea. At this stage Jabeur and Swiatek are probably the best two woman's clay court players.
Will take these three as a treble.
If I had too go longer shot I do like Bronzetti to beat Osario. Nothing much between them in the rankings and results and I tend to go with the longer odds in these matches.
I think Andreescu beats Radacanu. Radacanu just so over hyphed after a US Open that was beyond anything imaginable. Yet her current form is lousy. Quite interesting her comments on Alcaraz, where she said his 'consistency' is amazing. It is something that seems very elusive for her at this moment. Radacanu probably guilty of overthinking it, but she really has no coaching base or real guidance. She won is the US but there was no real method to the madness.
One guy I would not touch with a bargepole is Casper Ruud. He has had a terrible clay court Summer so far. I think his record is 4-4 and he is up against Botic who beat him in straight sets at Bavarian open (7-5  6-1). Would def be going with van de Zandschulp here.
Also think Pedro Martinez is worth a shout against Sinner. That is a seriously good player, with excellent fitness and ball striking. Would be going over 20.5 games here, in what could be an upset or very close match.

I disagree. When you are an elite athlete, and in your teens you have energy to burn. Alcaraz will recover quickly, and will be ready. Playing a final in front of his own fans, will make him close to unbeatable.  I think Alcaraz will cover the -2.5 easily, while Zverev could go through another racquet bashing episode.
 
People were wondering where the future of tennis would go ..., but Alcaraz is it. Very hard to not like him. Infectious smile and great attitude, and has been handled exceptionally well by Juan Carlos Ferrero.