K8a

It is definitely not random by any means. Beating in 2017 confirmed again in 2020 masters. They both play similar styles where I believe Agut will always have a decent chance against him on a good day. However I will be sticking to Medvedev with Agut carrying a handicap of number of games already played including the last 6sets in 2 matches.

Medvedev does not look 100% good physically. Previously, Agut defeated him in both matches. Today I think Agut has his chance to win. What are you thinking?

@CzechPunter
I'm picking three sets in Sabalenka-Barty and Svitolina-Sevastova, best odds at b365.

Well, I also really like Sinner (vs Kachanov). I don't know which are the current odds but Sinner has really impressed me lately while Kachanov has been tremendously pathetic in his last tournaments (Marseille and Dubai).
1.57 at bet365, not bad all. I think is value.

I guess right thinking would suggest Rybakina on the basis that Sorribes Tormo should finally be running out of steam having played all those matches. Rybakina herself has questionable form and it remains to be seen whether her victory over Kanepi was as good as the score suggested. I think Kanepi imploded from too many matches played as opposed to the thrashing. -2.5 will be deemed a sensible pick if Sorribes Turbo does not turn up. I strongly believe that Sorribes will ram up the turbo and really make this one messy for Rybakina even if she is to end up winning. I have been pondering over the clash of styles all day, Tormo hitting up and Rybakina hitting  flat and hard....and missing a few too. I would want to think that Sorribes has already beaten a mixture of players that would already cater for this type of player in Rybakina. Its so very close. Sorribes Turbo for me here!!

trying Harris to beat Augusta @3 , Harris had a pretty good run lately beating good players, has a rather strong serve, so @3 i feel is more than decent
 
Ymer @2.4 to beat Basilshvili , prior to his very good run in Doha he was very poor and a (big) dog in all his matches , if it was 2 weeks ago Ymer would probably have been a small fav, so i am taking the risk here, may be Doha was just some kind of lucky streak so for me 2.4 is good enough

I've been confidently taking Fernandez and Ann Li in all of my multiples throughout WTA Monterrey (every round), and unsurprisingly I will be going for them again - vs. Kuzmova and Zheng - respectively. 
Fernandez has impressed me so much and without looking I imagine she must be the clear tournament favorite.
Li plays a very fast style but has a really solid game and is on a great run since October - her only defeat in 14 came against Sabalenka at the AO. I can't see her losing to Saisai.
I'm tempted to include Sorribes Tormo considering the fact she's played a match less and that she drummed Schmiedlova in 2019 (6-4, 6-0) - but I haven't watched any of her Monterrey matches. That being said, I know what to expect from her. 
Li - 1.44 (B365)
Fernandez - 1.22 (B365)
The Double - 1.76

Paolini to beat Schmiedlova at 2.60 with William Hill
Paolini leads the h2h 3-0. Shenzhen 2017 (6-3, 6-4), Budapest 2018 (6-2, 6-2) and Praha 2018 (6-4, 6-1). I have seen Schmiedlova against Boulter (6-4, 6-0) and the result did not reflect how the match really was. Boulter wasted 2 BP when the 1st set was 4-4. If she had converted them, I'm almost sure she would have won the set and probably the match. Paolini has won against Hibino in her 1st match here and she did quite well in the australian season. In the Gippsland Trophy she won against Marino and Qiang Wang, and she took a set from Muchova. In the AO she was destroyed by Karolina Pliskova (6-0, 6-2). In Adelaide she beat Muhammad and Sharma and lost against Gauff in a 3 set match.

If I had a list of “ do not get again” for 1-2 performances or chokes... I don’t think there would be anyone else to bet on...

If I had a list of “ do not get again” for 1-2 performances or chokes... I don’t think there would be anyone else to bet on...

If I had a list of “ do not get again” for 1-2 performances or chokes... I don’t think there would be anyone else to bet on...

If I had a list of “ do not get again” for 1-2 performances or chokes... I don’t think there would be anyone else to bet on...

I totally agree here . Bencic has been playing real good and has yet to drop a set.  IMO Gauff shouldn’t have won yesterday I think it was more of a meltdown from Rogers even up a break on the second set until she went gassed out.  I know Gauff is 16 but so many minutes and sets played will cost her. Not sure if her father is the right way for her to continue and I’m sure good things we can expect from her on the future but I believe this is the end of the road on this tournament.

I totally agree here . Bencic has been playing real good and has yet to drop a set.  IMO Gauff shouldn’t have won yesterday I think it was more of a meltdown from Rogers even up a break on the second set until she went gassed out.  I know Gauff is 16 but so many minutes and sets played will cost her. Not sure if her father is the right way for her to continue and I’m sure good things we can expect from her on the future but I believe this is the end of the road on this tournament.

Gauff vs Bencic
I am going to keep this simple because I do not want my chain of thoughts to be derailed by trying to think of a reason for this pick. This pick is for those who have been on the journey of this tournament from the start and who should be thinking like me here. Bencic to win here large. Gauff has already played four 3 setters in a row. I dare her a win here. Large stakes recommended. 9/10

In the "ball-bashing" match, if it is tied at 1-1, think Osaka would have the decider easier than the first 2 sets as she is in a "better" shape - fitness and stamina wise - to tackle a 3rd set which will be too much for Williams to handle with a very hard-hitting opponent.  And of course everyone knows that this match is also very likely to decide the winner of the AO WTA 2021.
  

Personally I don’t agree . karatsev seems to be very aggressive . Not saying he has a shot of winning this but IMO is n that Dimitrov played well  it was more of Thiem having an horrendous day and lack of energy or sleep. Something was definitely not right with him. Dimitrov’s game didn’t impress me much to be quite honest. 

Personally I don’t agree . karatsev seems to be very aggressive . Not saying he has a shot of winning this but IMO is n that Dimitrov played well  it was more of Thiem having an horrendous day and lack of energy or sleep. Something was definitely not right with him. Dimitrov’s game didn’t impress me much to be quite honest. 

Personally I don’t agree . karatsev seems to be very aggressive . Not saying he has a shot of winning this but IMO is n that Dimitrov played well  it was more of Thiem having an horrendous day and lack of energy or sleep. Something was definitely not right with him. Dimitrov’s game didn’t impress me much to be quite honest. 

Agree !! I think Australia got cocky. I was reading they have an average of 2-3 cases a day on the whole country! They obviously doing pretty good regarding the pandemic but then again, we all have seen the games and they are in huge attendance  of fans with no masks and I’m guessing AO would be even more attendees.

Well, it's shocking honestly. It's not even a player who tested positive. What's going to happen if this comes up during the Grand Slam? Just have no spectators and let the thing run ffs.

Ann Li to beat Ellen Perez at 1.53 with betfair
I know I'm posting a lot of bets but we have 3 WTA events and 3 ATP events so what do you expect...? Tomorrow begin the Grampians Trophy, a tournament for the players who have been under a hard quarantine. I like Ann Li chances for this match. She did really well in 2020, ending with a 18-10 record on hard courts. She won an ITF tournament she played in November in Tyler, Texas. It was an ITF tournament but she beat good players there as Clara Tauson, Greet Minen and Kostyuk in the Final. She even won a couple of matches in the US Open. She won against Arantxa Rus and then she destroyed Alison Riske (6-0, 6-3). I watched the whole match and she was impressive... After that she lost in the 3rd round against Kerber (6-3, 6-4). I also watched that match and IMO the result did not reflect how the match really was. Li did not play as good as she did against Riske but she put Kerber in troubles. In Cincinnati she won against Diyas and Kuzmova, both in straight sets, but lost against Muchova (4-6, 4-6). She also played the AO, winning the qualy against Sherif, Wickmayer and Bogdan. After that she won against Cabrera in the 1st round but then lost against Kenin (6-3, 6-1). Perez did nothing remarkable in 2020. She lost in the 1st match of the qualy of the AO against Wickmayer (7-6, 6-1), a player that then was beat by Ann Li, easily (6-3, 6-2). IMO, there is a big difference between these players right now and the only concern I have is that Li has not played any match this year while Perez has played 2 matches. She won against Dolehide in a 3 set match but then lost against Lepchenko, also in 3 sets. That was in the qualy of the AO, played in Dubai. Anyway, Ann Li has progressed a lot during the last year and IMO there is a big difference right now between her and Perez.

Vasek Pospisil (-2,5 Games) to beat Thiago Monteiro at 1.72 with bet365
At first I have to say that Pospisil is one of the players that has been under a strict quarantine and this is one of the reasons why he's priced at these odds against Monteiro. IMO, even under these circunstances, Pospisil should win this one without problems. Pospisil had an impressive 2020. He reached the Final in Montpellier, beating Bedene, Shapovalov, Gasquet and Goffin. In the US Open he won against Raonic and Bautista and he reached the Final in his last tournament (Sofia), beating Marchenko, Struff, Millman and Gasquet, and losing the Final against Sinner (4-6, 6-3, 6-7). Monteiro has played 2 matches on this surface this year. He won against another clay court player, Bellucci, and lost against Isner, in Delray Beach. In 2020 he played 14 matches on hard with a 7-7 record but all those victories were against clay court players (Mayer, Coria and Clezar), low ranked players (Kozlov and Rai Ajeet) and a 15 years player (Nawaf). His only remarkable victory was against Norrie. I just can't imagine Pospisil losing this one, despite his lockdown.

Aryna Sabalenka to win the 2nd quarter at 2.10 with bet365
Taking a look at this market this is the one i like the most for this tournament.
In the 1st quarter Halep is priced at 1.66 but she will have to face Swiatek or Alexandrova and she can lose against them, especially against the pole, who already beat her in the Final of RG by a 6-1, 6-2, so IMO there is no value on her at all at 1.66.
The 3rd quarter is the most unpredicatble because we have Svitolina (2.30) and Mertens (2.62), or even Ostapenko (6.50) and Garcia (8.00), who IMO can beat the first 2 players if they have a good day.
In the 4th quarter we have Naomi Osaka as the most favorite player (1.90) but I see some players there that can beat her, as Gauff (4.00), the player who pulled her off the AO in 2020 in 2 sets, or Konta (6.00).
In the 2nd quarter we have 2 big favorite players, Sabalenka (2.10) and Muchova (2.30), and then we have Kasatkina (8.50). Sabalenka is currently in a 15 winning streak. That winning streak started in Ostrava (Gauff, Sorribes, Brady and Azarenka). Then was Linz (Paolini, Voegle, Dodin, Krejcikova and Mertens) and finally Abu Dhabi (Hercog, Tomjlanovic, Jabeur, Rybakina, Sakkari and Kudermetova), where only Rybakina was capable of taking a set from her. Tomorrow she will play against Kanepi, the giant killer. Kanepi ended the last year winning a lot of matches but that was because she played ITF tournaments. If we take a look at how she did in big tournaments we'll see first round loses in Brisbane (vs Bouzkova), AO (vs Krejcikova) and two second round loses in the US Open (vs Jabeur) and RG (vs Mertens). She has struggled against Sharma in her first round here so I expect Sabalenka to beat her. In her second match she will face Kasatkina or Hercog. To be honest, I'm more afraid of Kanepi than these 2 players. Hercog was one of the players she beat in Abu Dhabi (7-6, 6-2) and Kasatkina lacks the power and the serve that is needed to beat the current version of Sabalenka. The final player she will face is Paolini or Muchova, most likely Muchova. I don't think Muchova is in a good form right now... She did nothing remarkable in 2020 and even she was very poor in Australia, losing in Brisbane in the first round against Riske (2-6, 4-6) and in the second round in the AO, against Bellis (4-6, 4-6). She has destroyed McNally (6-1, 6-1) in her first round here. Let's see if that winning streak can last at least for 3 more matches... 
@K8a It's very important to do well in these preparation tournaments to have a good run in the big one. 

I agree 1000% with your point of view. My only concern would be how much is she really Into the Yarra Valley for I would think she has her mind set at AO.