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Tennis Tips - February 22 - February 28


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  • 2 weeks later...

Plenty of tournaments this week. For ATP, there's Cordoba, Singapore, Montpellier. For WTA, there's Adelaide. For Challengers, there's Nur-Sultan and Gran Canaria.

Yoshihito Nishioka to beat Michael Mmoh at 1.80 with Bet365

I still like Nishioka, even though he let me down big time against Martinez. He was pretty decent though in that match, as he was in the match against Pella. I also managed to see Mmoh against Giron and he was awful. He now has a win against Troicki, but I think that Nishioka deserves to be a bigger fav in this match. Asian soil and he's the better player as well.

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ATP Montpellier (Open Sud de France)

Sebastian Korda to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at 1.53 with bet365

Tsonga will play his first match after a long absence. His last match played was against Popyrin, in the AO 2020, where he had to retire due to an injury. Korda comes in a real good form after winning the Quimper Challenger, played also on indoors.  

Benjamin Bonzi to beat Lucas Pouille at 1.66 with bet365

Pouille has returned after a long absence but his results and his game during his first 3 matches has been bad. He has won against Maden but lost against Horansky and Kamke, all of them in 3 sets. I watched him against Horansky and Kamke and I did not like what I saw. Bonzi is a good player on indoors and he comes in a good form. He reached the Final in the Istanbul Challenger and the SFs in the Quimper Challenger, both in played on indoors. In the Final of Istanbul he lost against Rinderknech in 3 sets. The match he lost in the SFs of the Quimper Challenger was also tight, as he lost in 2 TBs against Korda.

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WTA Adelaide

Caroline García to beat Anastasija Sevastova at 1.76 with Pinnacle

I don't understand these odds and it's possible that I'm missing something but I think García has showed more than Sevastova in the last matches. Sevastova ended 2020 with a 6-13 record and she only has won 1 match in 2021. She lost against Badosa in 3 sets in the 1st round of Abu Dhabi. She was destroyed by Pavlyuchenkova (6-0, 6-3) after beating Brengle in 2 sets. After that she was destroyed by Kanepi in the AO (6-3, 6-1) and lost in the Philipp Island Trophy against Bogdan in 3 sets. García won against Babos and Rodionova, both in 2 sets, before losing against Mertens in 2 tight sets. In the AO she lost in 2 sets in the 2nd round against the winner of the tournament, Osaka. Before that, she won against Hercog in 2 tight sets. In the Philipp Island Trophy she lost in 2 sets in the first round against Doi. As I said, García has been better than Sevastova, who is clearly in a bad shape. Maybe there's something that I'm missing but I like García at these odds.

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2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Plenty of tournaments this week. For ATP, there's Cordoba, Singapore, Montpellier. For WTA, there's Adelaide. For Challengers, there's Nur-Sultan and Gran Canaria.

Yoshihito Nishioka to beat Michael Mmoh at 1.80 with Bet365

I still like Nishioka, even though he let me down big time against Martinez. He was pretty decent though in that match, as he was in the match against Pella. I also managed to see Mmoh against Giron and he was awful. He now has a win against Troicki, but I think that Nishioka deserves to be a bigger fav in this match. Asian soil and he's the better player as well.

Good luck czech I still dont like nishioka because of his inconsistency. michael mmoh is an improving player

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1 hour ago, darko08 said:

ATP Montpellier (Open Sud de France)

Sebastian Korda to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at 1.53 with bet365

Tsonga will play his first match after a long absence. His last match played was against Popyrin, in the AO 2020, where he had to retire due to an injury. Korda comes in a real good form after winning the Quimper Challenger, played also on indoors.  

Benjamin Bonzi to beat Lucas Pouille at 1.66 with bet365

Pouille has returned after a long absence but his results and his game during his first 3 matches has been bad. He has won against Maden but lost against Horansky and Kamke, all of them in 3 sets. I watched him against Horansky and Kamke and I did not like what I saw. Bonzi is a good player on indoors and he comes in a good form. He reached the Final in the Istanbul Challenger and the SFs in the Quimper Challenger, both in played on indoors. In the Final of Istanbul he lost against Rinderknech in 3 sets. The match he lost in the SFs of the Quimper Challenger was also tight, as he lost in 2 TBs against Korda.

I like both of these selections.

If Rinderknech was somehow also playing someone who hadn't played in a year, that would be my perfect treble. 😍

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5 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Plenty of tournaments this week. For ATP, there's Cordoba, Singapore, Montpellier. For WTA, there's Adelaide. For Challengers, there's Nur-Sultan and Gran Canaria.

Yoshihito Nishioka to beat Michael Mmoh at 1.80 with Bet365

I still like Nishioka, even though he let me down big time against Martinez. He was pretty decent though in that match, as he was in the match against Pella. I also managed to see Mmoh against Giron and he was awful. He now has a win against Troicki, but I think that Nishioka deserves to be a bigger fav in this match. Asian soil and he's the better player as well.

If Nishioka was decent against Martinez, then I don't want to see him play badly. I thought he was terrible.

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On 2/21/2021 at 11:22 AM, darko08 said:

WTA Adelaide

Caroline García to beat Anastasija Sevastova at 1.76 with Pinnacle

I don't understand these odds and it's possible that I'm missing something but I think García has showed more than Sevastova in the last matches. Sevastova ended 2020 with a 6-13 record and she only has won 1 match in 2021. She lost against Badosa in 3 sets in the 1st round of Abu Dhabi. She was destroyed by Pavlyuchenkova (6-0, 6-3) after beating Brengle in 2 sets. After that she was destroyed by Kanepi in the AO (6-3, 6-1) and lost in the Philipp Island Trophy against Bogdan in 3 sets. García won against Babos and Rodionova, both in 2 sets, before losing against Mertens in 2 tight sets. In the AO she lost in 2 sets in the 2nd round against the winner of the tournament, Osaka. Before that, she won against Hercog in 2 tight sets. In the Philipp Island Trophy she lost in 2 sets in the first round against Doi. As I said, García has been better than Sevastova, who is clearly in a bad shape. Maybe there's something that I'm missing but I like García at these odds.

The less said about Garcia's performance in this match, the better. 

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Jozef Kovalik to beat Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera at 1.61 with Pinnacle

Not a great deal I like for tomorrow either, but this one looks good enough to pass the line for me. Put simply, I think that Kovalik is a level above Barrios Vera and he did well to beat Galan in the first round. That was a bigger challenge than any of three players Barrios Vera beat to qualify. On a good day, Kovalik is an ATP-level player. As for Barrios Vera, he hasn't put such a performance in for quite a while now.

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I like two today in Adelaide. Martic is too big against Gauff, bearing in mind that the American has had two tough three-set wins in a row and also hasn't had much consistency in recent times. I'm also taking a punt on Inglis to beat Swiatek, as I've liked how she's played in the last few weeks and she's had some decent results. I always like to look at fading the top players in the weeks after a Slam, as I always think motivation levels suffer. Swiatek should win, and she should win comfortably, but if she's not entirely focussed then the home player might spring a surprise.

20pts Martic to beat Gauff @ 2.50 Bet365

10pts Inglis to beat Swiatek @ 10.50 Betfair Exchange

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2 hours ago, Torque said:

I like two today in Adelaide. Martic is too big against Gauff, bearing in mind that the American has had two tough three-set wins in a row and also hasn't had much consistency in recent times. I'm also taking a punt on Inglis to beat Swiatek, as I've liked how she's played in the last few weeks and she's had some decent results. I always like to look at fading the top players in the weeks after a Slam, as I always think motivation levels suffer. Swiatek should win, and she should win comfortably, but if she's not entirely focussed then the home player might spring a surprise.

20pts Martic to beat Gauff @ 2.50 Bet365

10pts Inglis to beat Swiatek @ 10.50 Betfair Exchange

Nothing wrong with your thinking. It is the right way to go - fading top seeds just after a slam. It may not always work, but the thinking is right. You do not back players because you know that they are better. You back them because you think that they have the better chance of winning based on the situation and circumstance. Well......unless the player is named  Djokovic who can switch to any one of his 9 lives.

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Can someone here that's more experienced with tennis betting and even playing tennis please explain me how did the korda-sonego match go so wrong for korda ? This is one of those matches that frustrates me alot, because no matter how I look at it I don't get it how sonego won so easily. I've watched the match and overall yes sonego was simply better, but did anyone else think beforehand that it would be this disbalanced ? 

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3 hours ago, vladisimo2 said:

Can someone here that's more experienced with tennis betting and even playing tennis please explain me how did the korda-sonego match go so wrong for korda ? This is one of those matches that frustrates me alot, because no matter how I look at it I don't get it how sonego won so easily. I've watched the match and overall yes sonego was simply better, but did anyone else think beforehand that it would be this disbalanced ? 

A player like Sonego can always return his way to victory and that's just what happened today. Sonego is a player with an outstanding return of serve and that's where he outplayed Korda.

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21 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Jozef Kovalik to beat Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera at 1.61 with Pinnacle

Not a great deal I like for tomorrow either, but this one looks good enough to pass the line for me. Put simply, I think that Kovalik is a level above Barrios Vera and he did well to beat Galan in the first round. That was a bigger challenge than any of three players Barrios Vera beat to qualify. On a good day, Kovalik is an ATP-level player. As for Barrios Vera, he hasn't put such a performance in for quite a while now.

Interesting first set.

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My view beforehand of the match that Korda played today was that I did not see anything of interest and I had a thought of the risk that Sonego would bring Korda down to earth with his far more amount of experience. He knew what to do to win and executed his gameplan just as well as he has been doing during the last 3 years. 

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1 hour ago, AgaRadwanska said:

What do we think of the Storm Sanders price (3.2) on home soil against Bencic? I watched some of Storm vs. Putinseva and she looked impressive. She's also beaten big serving Pera and McNally in qualifying - and defeated Tomljanovic comfortably en route to the QF. I smell an upset

I think it's one step to far for her but I would take Storm on the handicap.

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Jil Teichman to beat (-1.5 sets) Anastasia Sevastova at 2.55 with Unibet

If I remember correctly Sevastova has been in decline for some time now and doesn't seem to get back to where she once was. She will be on the way down until she eventually wins a tournament and goes on a long winning streak. She isn't there now though so I feel more comfortable picking a player like Jil who seldom loses matches when on a run to an eventual semi. Teichman is for me a player on the rise while as mentioned Sevastova is on the way down. So I pick the favourite to win this in straight sets. Same thing happened to Sevastova when she played Alison Riske in the Mallorca final (her latest final). Riske won easily in two and after that Sevastova hasn't been able to replicate her best form or highest ranking.

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Martic couldn't get it done for me despite taking the first set and Inglis was a blowout as expected, but I'll try again with another player who is too big a price in my book and that's Uchiyama. He plays Kwon Soonwoo who's a decent player who started to emerge last year before lockdown, but like Gauff he isn't the most consistent despite stringing a few wins together ahead of this match. For his part, Uchiyama is also inconsistent but is also a decent enough player which is reflected in his ranking. He's played Kwon Soonwoo before and although he's never won, the matches have been close. This is a match where both players are of a similar rank, both are inconsistent and neither player has dominated in previous meetings and so Uchiyama is preferred based on the odds.

10pts Uchiyama to beat Kwon Soonwoo @ 3.50 Bet365

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