Tennis Tips - March 15 - March 21

[CzechPunter]

[darko08]

Ann Li to win the WTA Monterrey at 10.00 with bet365

I have been following Ann Li for a long time. She is one of the most improved players during the last year and she will be soon in the top 20. This year she has a 6-1 record. She won against Kudermetova, Cirstea and Brady in the Grampians Trophy. In the AO she destroyed Shuai Zhang and Cornet, before losing against Sabalenka (the only player who has defeat her in 2021). The main risk here will be her first matches cause she hasn't played since her match against Sabalenka, but if she wins them she will be a strong candidate to get the title. She's priced at 1.50 against Rus but the value is on her taking the title for the reasons I have explained. If she wins against Rus she will play against Zarazua/Zidansek and then Lin Zhu/Bouchard/Gracheva/Saisai in the QFs. I like the fact that she won't face a strong opponent in the first 3 matches and this is a good opportunity for her to get some rythmn after spent 1 month without playing.

[CzechPunter]

I'm thinking about a couple for tomorrow, but not sure yet. In any case, we all have plenty of stuff to dig into. For ATP, there's Dubai and Acapulco. For WTA, there's St. Petersburg and Monterrey. For Challengers, there's Cleveland, Santiago and...Biella 5!

[CzechPunter]

Katie Boulter to beat Anna Karolina Schmiedlova at 2.52 with Pinnacle

Not quite sure what makes Schmiedlova such a favorite in this one. Boulter is having a decent comeback and showed that she can play against anyone in Australia. She's still a bit away from where she once was, but she crushed Schmiedlova in their only previous meeting and I think this is more of a coin-flip than a 2.52 shot.

[darko08]

WTA Saint Petersburg

Tauson to win the 4th quarter at 4.50 with bet365

Tauson will play against Kasatkina in the 1st round, Sasnovich/Bogdan in the 2nd round and Kudermetova/Rakhimova/Mishina in the QFs. The favorite players to win this quarter are Kudermetova (2.00), Tauson and Kasatkina (4.50). Tauson has an advantage respect these 2 players, she's the only player who has played on indoors this year. She has played 18 matches on this surface in 2021 with a 16-2 record. She comes here after winning the WTA Lyon without dropping a single set (Fayard, Hesse, Alexandrova, Babos, Giorgi, Badosa and Golubic) and she has already played 2 matches here (Shalimova and Kerkhove), both won also in 2 sets. Kasatkina lost in the 1st round against Cornet in Dubai after winning the Philipp Island Trophy, both played on outdoors. Kudermetova did really in Abu Dhabi but after that her results have been really disappointing (4-5). I saw the last match she played, it was in Dubai against Bencic and it shocked me how bad she played. Tauson is priced at 1.80 against Kasatkina. If she wins this match she will be a massive favorite in her 2nd match. Bogdan has not played on indoors this year and the last time she won a match on this surface it was in 2019. Sasnovich played in Lyon but she suffered a big loss against Burel (including a 6-0 in the 3rd set) in her 2nd round there after a tight match against Bouchard.

Edited March 14, 2021 by darko08

[Torque]

I'm starting off this week with two WTA matches. In Monterrey, I like the look of Sherif against Davis. The Egyptian has some momentum having come through the qualification rounds and although Davis is a player I like as she always gives best effort, I make her only a marginal favourite to win this. In Russia, I'm having a small stake on Rodionova to beat Zvonareva. Like Sherif, Rodionova has a couple of wins in qualifying which I always think is a bonus and also it's not as though Zvonareva is in particularly good form. She's not the player she used to be and the price on Rodionova is too high.

35pts Sherif to beat Davis @ 2.30 Bet365

5pts Rodionova to beat Zvonareva @ 9.00 Betfair Sportsbook

[ElPrincipito007]

https://au.sports.yahoo.com/tennis-damir-dzumhur-disqualified-shocking-meltdown-054620052.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAC8nLz9t3ev-32oGwafZdcu7VyO7IXEX78wr_EeD3bkJbtOG1Rc8tgXu_zVCXTiORxku5Q90dvvY1B34wxbdCwS6Za3LRt5LljIbCIsVAhEFvh6y2FKiNH2DHxWCGVvotjuDm4QCgOju2qJIp56B1RCAfrUqvFOm90AuaHn_N6vY

[ElPrincipito007]

Bedene AH -1.5 sets @2,15 (Unibet)

Bhambri is making a comeback after 3 years and has never been a world beater. He won in qualification against Gunneswaran in 2 and Ramanathan in 3 sets.  Bedene won against Sinner in Montpellier and and lost to Gerasimov afterwards. I think Bedene can have this job done in 2 sets.

[darko08]

8 hours ago, Torque said:

I'm starting off this week with two WTA matches. In Monterrey, I like the look of Sherif against Davis. The Egyptian has some momentum having come through the qualification rounds and although Davis is a player I like as she always gives best effort, I make her only a marginal favourite to win this. In Russia, I'm having a small stake on Rodionova to beat Zvonareva. Like Sherif, Rodionova has a couple of wins in qualifying which I always think is a bonus and also it's not as though Zvonareva is in particularly good form. She's not the player she used to be and the price on Rodionova is too high.

35pts Sherif to beat Davis @ 2.30 Bet365

5pts Rodionova to beat Zvonareva @ 9.00 Betfair Sportsbook

Zvonareva holds a 4-4 record this year and her defeats have been against Svitolina (6-4, 6-1), Vondrousova (7-6, 6-7, 6-4), Rybakina (4-6, 6-4, 6-4) and Kanepi (6-3, 6-7, 6-3). As you can see, she could have won any of the last 3 matches she has lost despite playing against very good players. Rodionova's record before playing the qualy was 0-4. Garcia (6-3, 6-4), Brengle (6-1, 6-2), Doi (7-5, 6-1) and Trevisan (5-7, 6-1, 6-3). Besides, you have a very recent precedent between these players. It's not particularly important cause it was played in a different surface (RG 2020) but Rodionova was unable to win more than 4 games (6-0, 6-4) against her. I would not give too much importance to the fact that she had played 2 matches here cause they have been against very low ranked players. IMO, I would say that Zvonareva perfectly could reach the SFs here (4.00) cause I can see her winning against Ferro (2.75) and Pavlyuchenkova (2.87). Not particularly convinced about the other one either as Davis had a decent run in Guadalajara (QFs) while Sherif lost in the 1st round against Olmos in straight sets.

Edited March 15, 2021 by darko08

[AgaRadwanska]

I like the price of Jeremy Chardy vs. Alex De Minaur, at around 3.0-3.1. 

Chardy is a big server/big hitter and has been on fire this year, beating Goffin (2-0) and Humbert (2-1) in Rotterdam, before losing to Rublev in 3 sets in the QF.

He also made the semi-finals of Melbourne, defeating Fritz, Simon and Cilic along the way. De Minaur was drummed by Fognini 3-0 at the AO, and beaten by Nishikori 2-1 recently in Rotterdam. 

[DrO]

 

[darko08]

20 minutes ago, DrO said:

 

I think we all know what happened here... Dzumhur, allegedly, bet some money on himself and he was going to lose the first set so he quit and he made a show to justify his action. I always have thought that the best thing to do in these situations is faking an injury, though.

[CzechPunter]

Well, not sure about that at all. In any case, he's not going to win any fair play prizes for this!

[darko08]

MC Osorio Serrano vs. Juvan Over 19.5 Games at 1.84 with Pinnacle

Both players comes from the qualy. Camila has won against Xiyu Wang (7-6, 4-6, 6-2) and Dart (6-4, 7-5). Juvan has won against Govortsova (6-2, 4-6, 6-2) and Nara (6-1, 6-1). I don't think the difference between them is as big as the odds suggest. There is only 1 year difference between them and Camila is a GS girl champion (USO 2019). In Guadalajara Juvan won against Bolsova in a tight match (7-6, 7-5) at similar odds. Then, she was beat by Bouchard in 2 sets (6-4, 6-3). I expect Camila to fight this match more than the odds suggest.

Edited March 15, 2021 by darko08

[CzechPunter]

Filip Krajinovic to beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at 2.10 with William Hill

This looks priced on ADF's exploits indoors against Gerasimov and RBA, etc. He was good back then, but I saw his match against Albot and he was very erratic. Krajinovic has had some time off and is slightly better overall in my opinion, should be fresher as well. Not saying that he's a big fav in this one, but I'd make him a marginal favorite in all honesty. 

[Torque]

Sherif couldn't build on winning the opening set against Davis and Rodionova got ahead in the second set against Zvonareva but couldn't hold on. Anyway, it's impossible to win them all and today is another day.

With that in mind, I'll be starting in Dubai where I'm backing Popyrin to beat Khachanov. The young Aussie is on a streak of wins right now and has beaten some good players. He's also beaten Ebden during this run, who Khachanov lost to last week in disappointing fashion. I'd much rather back the form horse at odds against rather than the favourite who has been inconsistent so far this season. 

I'm also going to back Carreno-Busta to beat Fucsovics. He's not played since the AO so there's some uncertainty about his level but at the same time he'll be fresh. That can't be said for Fucsovics, who has played a lot of tennis recently. He pulled out of his match against Rublev last week and he played a gruelling match against Pospisil yesterday that went the distance. Carreno-Busta plays well on hard but also has the clay mentality of long rallies and keeping the ball in play. If nothing else, there's a good chance the Spaniard will outlast his opponent and get the win here.

Next up I'll be backing Basilashvili against Fritz, as I can't have him as the underdog given how well he played last week - which included a win over this same opponent. The risky part of backing the Georgian in this one is will he be able to continue keeping the unforced errors down, or will he regress and start spraying the ball all over the place like he'd been doing prior to arriving in Doha. Personally, I prefer backing hot players to stay hot even if there is a risk of a comedown so I'll cross my fingers that Basilashvili is motivated to continue his run of good form.

Last up is my only WTA pick, which is in St. Petersburg. Tomova plays Wang Xinyu, and after giving such a good account of herself last week against Mertens she should have a good chance to win this. They've played each other once before a couple of years ago and Tomova won, and although that's not necessarily relevant given that Xinyu is still a teenager, it never hurts to look across the net and see a player you know you've beaten.

15pts Popyrin to beat Khachanov @ 2.62 Bet365

50pts Carreno-Busta to beat Fucsovics @ 2.25 Betfair Sportsbook

35pts Basilashvili to beat Fritz @ 2.50 Bet365

35pts Tomova to beat Wang Xinyu @ 2.20 Bet365

[DrO]

Krajinovic was in lockdown in Doha until last night. Last five days he even couldn't leave his room. So,no practice of whatsoever. He even joined a show on Serbian television via Zoom,complaining about the treatment and the situation with the quarantine rules. He said that all this does make sense and that upon his return to Belgrade ,he will sit down with his team and see what next.
He flew last nihgt to Dubai,and already today he's playing a match. I wouldn't be too optimistic about his performance.

https://www.b92.net/sport/tenis/vesti.php?yyyy=2021&mm=03&dd=15&nav_id=1827084

[CzechPunter]

Oh, crap, I didn't know that! Thanks for letting us all know! He keeps shortening in the markets, which is rather strange as well. I think the rational thing to do here is lay the bet off. So, I'm going with Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to beat Filip Krajinovic at 1.89 with Pinnacle. Staking the usual 10 points, so that I either win one point if Krajinovic wins or lose 1.1 points if ADF wins. 

Aslan Karatsev to beat Daniel Evans at 1.87 with Pinnacle

Taking this one instead, as I liked Karatsev against Thiem. He was going for his shots as per usual and Evans won't be drawing errors from him like Thiem did, he doesn't have the defensive abilities to do that. Instead, I think Karatsev will be able to find the passing shots he needs to in order to win this. The price looks decent in any case.

[darko08]

WTA Saint Petersburg

Alexandrova to win the 1st quarter at 1.90 with bet365

Yesterday it was paid at 1.80 but now it has raised to 1.90 so I go for it. 2 matches. Her first opponent will be Voegele/Martincova. She leads the h2h against both. The bookies favor Martincova to advance but she had to retire due to back problems in her last match played in Lyon against Ferro (6-2, 4-1), so we will see what happens today. Alexandrova leads the h2h against her (3-1). 2 of them were played in 2016 and the most recent one is the match they played here in 2019 in which Alexandrova won in 2 sets (7-5, 6-2). In relation to Voegele they have played only once and it was in Shenzhen 2019 (6-4, 6-1). Alexandrova should win against any of these 2 players. Her QFs match will be against Siniakova/Flipkens/Gasparyan/Mladenovic. Flipkens will play her first match here since her first round loss in the AO. She had to deal with an ankle injury there. Gasparyan had to deal with a lot of injuries during 2020 and she barely played matches. She won recently some matches in the WTA Lyon against low ranked players but she lost against Mladenovic in the 2nd round (6-4, 6-2). Siniakova is in a very bad moment. She has a 1-4 record this year (her only victory was against Niculescu in 3 sets) and she has no matches played on indoors this year. Mladenovic is the 2nd favorite to win this quarter (6.50). Alexandrova leads the h2h against her (2-0). Linz 2019 (6-2, 6-4) and Palermo 2020 (5-7, 6-0, 6-1). Mladenovic lost against Badosa in Lyon in a 3 set match after winning against Gasparyan. She comes here after a big loss against Pegula in Dubai (6-1, 6-2). Alexandrova is in 3 losing streak. She lost easily against Barty in the 3rd round of the AO. She lost in 2 sets against Tauson in Lyon (6-3, 6-4). Her last match was against Gauff in Dubai, and it was a thriller (6-7, 6-2, 6-7). Despite her last 3 loses, Alexandrova is incredibly good on indoors and she plays home. The last year here, she won against Kasatkina, Vekic and Kvitova, and lost in the SFs in a 3 set match against Bertens. In 2019 she reached the QFs (coming from the qualy), losing against Sabalenka. I expect her to win, at least, 2 matches here.

Edited March 16, 2021 by darko08

[ElPrincipito007]

Lapko @2,28 (Marathonbet)

She hasn't play much tis and last year, that's why she is ranked so low, but she took a set against Golubic and Martic recently. So I give her definitely a chance against Garin who is  below the level of her recent opponents. Garin won 2 qualy's here, but against weak opponents.

[CzechPunter]

Karatsev led *4-3 *40-0 in the second set ?.

[AgaRadwanska]

9 hours ago, DrO said:

Krajinovic was in lockdown in Doha until last night. Last five days he even couldn't leave his room. So,no practice of whatsoever. He even joined a show on Serbian television via Zoom,complaining about the treatment and the situation with the quarantine rules. He said that all this does make sense and that upon his return to Belgrade ,he will sit down with his team and see what next.
He flew last nihgt to Dubai,and already today he's playing a match. I wouldn't be too optimistic about his performance.

https://www.b92.net/sport/tenis/vesti.php?yyyy=2021&mm=03&dd=15&nav_id=1827084

oh, balls. Well I need ADF to have an absolute stinker. 

[Torque]

2 minutes ago, Olymp said:

 

What currency are you using? According to your bets in past and todays performance I really hope for you your pts system is based on iranian rial.

 

I'm doing fine for the season thanks @Olymp

[Torque]

I'm struggling to think of a more unlucky day. All four of my picks lost in three, two of those were final set tie-breaks and Carreno-Busta blew a set and a break lead. Then on top of that having to deal with people crowing over the losing bets when you never hear a word from them when there's a winner. That's it from me on this thread.

[CzechPunter]

No worries @Torque, you're a good tipster and a good guy! Olymp has now been banned, never posted anything himself and plenty of bad blood.

[darko08]

Feliciano Lopez to beat Kecmanovic at 3.10 with William Hill
Feliciano Lopez (+1,5 Sets) to beat Kecmanovic at 1.82 with Pinnacle

Kecmanovic has been playing the south american clay season. His results have been disappointing. He was destroyed in his last match by Schwartzman in Buenos Aires (6-0, 6-4). Besides, it starts soon the spring clay season. I also like the fact that he was destroyed by Mannarino in his second match of the AO (6-1, 6-2, 6-4). Feliciano did well in the AO. He won against Li Tu in the 1st round and then he achieved an incredible comeback against Sonego (5-7, 3-6, 6-3, 7-5, 6-4). After that, he lost against Rublev (7-5, 6-2, 6-3). He's very selective with the tournaments in which he decides to put his effort and I have seen photos of him walking with his family in Acapulco, so I guess he will try hard on this one.

[DrO]

Just how pathetic player is Davidovich-Fokina,incredible. Krajinovic was literally locked in his hotel room for 5,6 days..no words to explain. On plus side,he's serving ridiculously good. 

Obviously,I have to apologize to everyone here,especially to Czech. I wanted to put some good,quality information on thread,but sometimes in terms of betting is better to know less. 

[AgaRadwanska]

2 minutes ago, DrO said:

Just how pathetic player is Davidovich-Fokina,incredible. Krajinovic was literally locked in his hotel room for 5,6 days..no words to explain. On plus side,he's serving ridiculously good. 

Obviously,I have to apologize to everyone here,especially to Czech. I wanted to put some good,quality information on thread,but sometimes in terms of betting is better to know less. 

Krajinovic is imo the better player, and wins a lot of points on his huge first serve. All you/any of us can do is make bets/take positions based on the info and prior knowledge we have. We can't control outcomes (unless maybe we're close friends with Dzumhur), so don't sweat it. 

[888888]

i also took Davidovich-Fokina (without reading your pick) and i agree it's shocking how bad this bum is playing and unfortunately at the same time how Krajinovic is playing well

[Torque]

22 minutes ago, DrO said:

Obviously,I have to apologize to everyone here,especially to Czech. I wanted to put some good,quality information on thread,but sometimes in terms of betting is better to know less. 

There's no need to apologize @DrO the information was useful regardless of the result. Also, there's no doubt you provided it in good faith. You can have all the info, place a bet that's a good bet and still see it lose. That's the way it goes sometimes.