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Zilzalian

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Posts posted by Zilzalian

    Racing Chat - Saturday 31st October

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Darran said:

    Yes Ashrun does get in for winning that race as it was a win and your in race. He only ran today because it was the only way of getting into Tuesday's race. Going was a Good4 today and the weather is looking hot for Monday and Tuesday so it will be good to firm and maybe even quicker on Tuesday.

    Good news is that he escaped a penalty, bad news is he is drawn 24/24 and will need a very special ride to win from there.

    Not sure that ground will suit but bets were  already on anyway so at least i get a run for my money, like u say will have to be a very good performance to win but i think it was expected to win last week but came up short thats why i wondered about the win and ur in bit. I first saw it last year when he took it to france it was a big price and won a decent race quite well so alls not lost and will have a saver on Finche.

    Racing Chat - Saturday 31st October

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    18 hours ago, Darran said:

    It is day 1 of the Melbourne Cup Carnival at Flemington and there are 4 G1's on the card as well as the Hotham which will see the winner get a place in the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday. Meanwhile at Rosehill it is the Golden Eagle where the winner gets £2.7m! I have bets in 7 races on the two cards.

    Flemington R1 (12.40am)

    With the clocks changing it means the 1st race is at a watchable time here in the UK and I like the look of the favourite Aysar. He was 2nd in the Caulfield Guineas last time which for me is easily the best form in the contest especially as the 1st two pulled clear of the rest. If he repeats that then he should be winning this.

    Aysar 11/10 with William Hill

    Flemington R3 (2am)

    I thought Banquo looked the value here. He ran well over course and distance last month when finishing 2nd and then up to G1 company over 1400m he ran a good enough 7th behind Behemoth. He was also 5th in the G1 Newmarket over course and distance in March so is well suited by the straight 1200m and he has the form to win this.

    Banquo @ 5/1 with Betfair

    Flemington R4 (2.40am)

    The final chance for a horse to get into the Melbourne Cup and I think Future Score can be the one to get that spot. He did us a good turn at 20/1 when winning the Cranbourne Cup last time and he was impressive in victory. Up to 2500m will suit and 3rd up he should come on again. He looks progressive still based on the Cranbourne win and he holds decent claims for me.

    Future Score @ 6/1 with Bet365

    Flemington R6 (4am)

    I like two in the G1 Cooolmore Stud Stakes. September Run has been flying this prep and has looked really good winning over 1100m here the last twice. She won her maiden over this trip so that shouldn't be a concern and although she is up in class from Listed company to a G1 I think she is up to it.

    Anders is the other one I like as he looked to be a possible superstar up in Sydney back in August. Things didn't go to plan at Caulfield, but it was in a 3 runner race so that was easily forgivable. If he bounces back to the form he showed in Sydney he is a massive player.

    September Run 3/1 with Bet365

    Anders @ 9/1 with Betfair

    Rosehill R6 (4.25am)

    It looks set to be testing ground in Sydney as it has been very wet up there this week. That means Wu Gok is a player in the Rosehill Gold Cup. He grows a leg on heavy ground as he showed last prep. He has been running OK in races above his class so far this prep and this looks much more suitable. The Candy Man is 4/4 in heavy ground and he suffered a messy race last time.so we can forgive him that. Some of the leading fancies are unproven on a heavy track so I am happy to take those two against the field.

    Wu Gok @ 9/2 with William Hill

    The Candy Man @ 7/1 with Bet365

    Rosehill R7 (5.10am)

    This race is named after last year's Everest winner and Gytrash is a warm order having finished a good 3rd in that contest this year. The problem is he hasn't been over 1300m before and in testing ground I wonder if it might just be too far for him. I thought Haut Brion Her ran really well at a big price in the Everest and she has won a G2 over 1400m so the trip is fine. She is unraced on heavy ground, but is 2/2 on soft ground. She is trained by Chris Waller who trained Yes Yes Yes and he also runs Star Of The Seas who looks over priced to me. He didn't look to stay 2000m last time and although he is coming back to 1300m he actually has really good stats having not finished out of the frame in 5 starts over the trip. He is 4/6 at the track and is 3/4 on heavy ground, finishing 2nd on the other starts. I reckon he has solid place claims at the very least and looks a big price.

    Haut Brion Her @ 9/2 with Bet365

    Star Of The Seas e/w @ 14/1 with William Hill

    Rosehill R9 (6.25am)

    A competitive race to close the card, but I am going to have a big e/w on Greek Hero. He went into my notebook last time when he finished 4th at Randwick in June. He race on the worst part of the track that day as he stayed on the inside rail whereas the place to be was on the stand side rail that day. The former UK horse won on his first start here and although he has never won over a trip this short I think he could especially on a heavy track.

    Greek Hero e/w @ 8/1 with William Hill

     

    I have been backing Ashrun for the MC for a couple of months, do i assume it has got to win this race (Holthem) to get in? must admit to being a bit lacking in knowledge on Australian racing and how they qualify. also do you know what the going is like at the moment?

    Naps - Wednesday 28th October

    in NAP of the Day Competition

    Posted

    12 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    I love the way you keep going with long shots even though way ahead of everyone else this month.  Possibly you could aim to get the most profit since 2016 tables began?  Different tactics though apply to the KO Cup in my opinion.  Good luck 

    Well to be honest im a bit foolish if i had backed my last 6 top rated i would have won five of them but short prices, the nap "shall we go now" today was schooling in public which was a bit annoying (watch the race see if u agree) but for this competition i would rather stand or fall on a decent size SP its more fun and more profitable over all, I back all my naps and have them in lucky 15's and do quite well mixing the prices, your right about the KO cup i will have to behave.

    Racing chat - Thursday 22nd October

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    17 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

    The 4:05 at Wolves tomorrow is a class 2 handicap 11 runners over 5F.

    Now here's the thing, put all these horses in a race with Battash, now consider this, how far would Battash beat this lot by?

    If Ornate comes last in this race it will still rank in my book as one of the best bets I have ever come across in all my years of betting.

    14/1 bet365 is an unbelievable price so i'm getting my wheel barrow out shovelling a pile of money in it and tipping it up in bet365's lobby.

    I might suggest that Ornate was beaten by a better drawn horse. Hope the ew players on here were on.

    Racing chat - Thursday 22nd October

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    1 hour ago, yossa6133 said:

    Wonder if Tiger Roll can win? Only beaten in that legend's race by one with a fancy flat rating, obviously taking on some much younger legs today though.

    Its made the Willie Mullins horse's price bigger, 10/1 last time i looked but Jessie has 2 in it as well so its a dodgy bet for me. I keep looking at that 10/1 though and my finger is getting itchy.

    BOG

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, Darran said:

    Not a naive comment at all. If you are betting on the exotics then tote bets can be the way to go. The other option is bet365 where you can take a price on a forecast and tricast.

    Every pound you put into the tote pool affects the prices be it win place or "exotics" for example bet £50 into the fc/tc pool and that is fifty divisions bet one hundred and you are spending twice as much to actually win less. but that wasn't my point it was your suggestion not mine to use tote.  I was merely stating facts that without on course bookies and crowds the online firms can return what they like to a large degree and that is exactly what they are doing shaving shaving shaving and like i said u shorten a horse it also affects f/c and tricasts. are you suggesting i am wrong? i bet 365 99% of the time btw. Correct me if i am wrong but i do not think you can take a price on FC or TC i see an advisory/example price if thats what you are referring to, if i am wrong i would like to know how you can take a fc price on bet 365 that would be quite helpful.

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