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Zilzalian
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Posts
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Posts posted by Zilzalian
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13 hours ago, Zilzalian said:
150 Pleasant Man
225 Valeria Messalina
300 Swayze
335 Tilsit
410 Canonised
445
520 Epic Endeavour.
225 res Lullaby moon
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300 Goodwood Swayze 25/1 betfred
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150 Pleasant Man
225 Valeria Messalina
300 Swayze
335 Tilsit
410 Canonised
445
520 Epic Endeavour.
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2yo speed figures for the 3:00 Goodwood
I am going to stick with the raw figures here because i am uncertain about the "acting on the ground" angle.
1 Swayze 129+ 25/1
2 Amour 128 8/1
3 Chipotle 127 4/1
I would not put anyone off Fearby because it has the best figures on the soft, most of the runners we have to speculate
but the price is far too short for me for what it has done so far. And I am sure Martyn Meade would not run
Swayze if he didn't think it could handle the ground.
4:10 Goodwood, Opinion based on not enough data is that canonised is the bet in this race i think experience may well get it home.
- Offramp, The Brigadier, gbettle and 4 others
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Just now, Zilzalian said:
Angel Blue Available at 33/1 early yesterday but now Lusail is a non runner will be a short price added to the market move.
most interesting piece of form on heavy ground is Escobar, Currently 40/1. Beating Lord north on said heavy ground.
- The Equaliser and Tedthewolf
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13 hours ago, The Brigadier said:
Lot of love for Angel Bleu here tonight - fingers crossed
Angel Blue Available at 33/1 early yesterday but now Lusail is a non runner will be a short price added to the market move.
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14 hours ago, Zilzalian said:
3:00 Goodwood Real Appeal 20/1 bet365
Real Appeal NR so Mia Mento 20/1 bet365 at galway
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13 hours ago, Zilzalian said:
150 johnny drama
225 angel blue
300 real appeal
335 trueshan
410 ishvara
445 olivetti
real appeal a NR so Escobar
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12 hours ago, The Brigadier said:
Lot of love for Angel Bleu here tonight - fingers crossed
Angel Blue Available at 33/1 early yesterday but now Lusail is a non runner will be a short price added to the market move.
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150 johnny drama
225 angel blue
300 real appeal
335 trueshan
410 ishvara
445 olivetti
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3:00 Goodwood Real Appeal 20/1 bet365
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Speed figures for the 225 2yo G2 at Goodwood.
1 Angel Blue 123++
2 lusail 125
3 Birkshire Royal 124
The top rated is Angel Blue due to its soft ground win and defeat of Lusail in soft ground.
the win and Forecast (7.5/1) will pay for the day
- The Brigadier, Minterdan, The Equaliser and 1 other
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13 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
That appears to be a subjective view rather than one based on facts.
All my betting is based on logic and maths and this shows that EW betting on 16+ handicaps is logical.
As regards odds on shots these can sometimes represent excellent value so I wouldn't dismiss them completely.
Yes you are indeed correct, what i wrote was my view based on the way i bet which i tried to emphasise, i fully accept that there are people that make good money betting odds on and or ew
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200 dieppe lilas de france 14/1 betvictor
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3 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:
Thanks @Zilzalian!
I guess my habit of EW betting is from when I first started betting, about 20 years ago. I was in my early 20s and a friend of mine, who I would go to the local Sean Graham bookies at lunch with, said something along the lines of "you should always bet each way, as that way you always get something back." I suppose that this way of thinking is indeed ingrained!
Tomorrow, I will make all my best win bets!
Thanks again everyone for your thoughts and advice.
just use ew wisely is the best advice set yourself a minimum say if ur horse is say 8/1 or above use ew. depends a lot on ur stake to be honest if its a few quid it doesnt hurt much but if u get into tenners and upwards then give it some thought.
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My opinion on ew bets which is probably different than most is simple. They are the worst "Horse racing" bets on the planet next to odds on shots and i even struggle to force myself to do a 100/1 shot ew which is an act of stupidity on my part i concede. I avoid short priced horses like the plague so my betting theoretically should all be ew, i did an analysis on my betting book and ew cost me money simply because if i want to invest say £10 i would have had to split that in half to go ew. my analysis showed that the places i got would not beat the win. In other words the £10 win beat the £5ew win and place hands down over the season. So basically the problem for me is highlighted when the horse wins as opposed to being placed. Don't get me wrong here when a horse places at say 33/1 i say to myself i should have backed that ew, but i know from my analysis that is wrong "think" for the way i bet. @alexcaruso808 i think most would advise ew is best when it returns your whole stake for a place ie greater than11/2 @1/4 the odds, anything less and you lose money. I have mentioned elsewhere that if you are "scared of losing money" then that becomes prohibitive when your thinking about a race. Just to contradict myself here i often put ew lucky 15's on but only if the shortest price of the 4 horses is greater than 10/1.
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6:15 Muss. Eton College 9/1 bet365
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1 minute ago, The Brigadier said:
Difficult day !! Just the one return and a loss today of 15 1/2 points
Same here, very frustrating day, 1 winner 5 seconds 3 thirds 5 losers for me and capped of with my decision to not back Bangkok at 20/1 when I had the chance and then left the race alone. An observation though, Rain or no rain was irrelevant for both of us in the end. Do we put too much importance on "ground"? personally i always suspect its a convenient excuse for me being wrong in my selection. I would rather blame a jockey like the ride Mohaafeth was given by Crowley who does that far too often for me, don't know about you but i would have been livid had i backed it.
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4 hours ago, Zilzalian said:
Speed figures for the 2yo listed and g3 races at ascot,
115 ascot
1 angel blue 123
2 Mr McGann 119
150 Ascot
1 El Hadeeyah 121 (aw)
2 delmona 118
system 118
zain claudette 118
Comment- they seem poor races to me but there you go, I don't use caution but i might recommend others do on these two races.
use the kiddies piggy bank you got plenty of time to pay that back before they grow up and slap you back if you don't.
MMM bit of profit on the win bets on those but the forecasts soo wiped that out....Anyone else on here think Mishrif (8/1) is too big a price? you will if it wins.
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150 ascot El Hadeeyah 14/1 bet365
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Speed figures for the 2yo listed and g3 races at ascot,
115 ascot
1 angel blue 123
2 Mr McGann 119
150 Ascot
1 El Hadeeyah 121 (aw)
2 delmona 118
system 118
zain claudette 118
Comment- they seem poor races to me but there you go, I don't use caution but i might recommend others do on these two races.
use the kiddies piggy bank you got plenty of time to pay that back before they grow up and slap you back if you don't.
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16 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said:
@Zilzalian how do you compile your own speed figures? Are you rewatching old races or something like this?
all the race times are published in the Racing Post or on the website results for each race or alternatively buy the RP weekender they have a pullout with all the results for that week. to tell you how i use them would be to shoot myself in the foot. published speed figures affect the price, the bookies factor the successful ones in to the price.
- MCLARKE, alexcaruso808 and gbettle
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230ascot speedo boy 17/2 betvictor
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4 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said:
@Zilzalian are there any races in which speed is the most important factor? I mean a race in which speed would be more important than jockey skill, or a top trainer?
Well thats quite contentious for me to be honest its been my experience that jockeys and trainers are over rated, jockeys can never get a horse to run faster and neither can trainers, all horses have optimal limits which basically means jockeys can only get a horse beaten (how many times have you seen even "top" jockeys cock up?) i concede some trainers appear to be better than others but at the top level they can only train what they have, now there are some very good trainers that are very good handicappers so are expert at choosing "the right race" but then again they also know the races to get horses beaten in to get the handicap marks down and you and i are never privy to that information. that is why theoretically you/me should only back in listed/group races where they are primarily running for Breeding/prestige not prize money. So the answer to your question is yes speed is as in most sports the most primary/important factor. all other considerations are secondary. Again for me the worst killer of "banks" is the fear of losing money so punters stick to short price horses when all the evidence suggests thats the wrong thing to do, if i remember correctly only 30% of favs win (oddly similar for flat and jumps) which basically stating the obvious means that 70% don't win. (sideways tip-july is the most productive month for flat favs winning). So here is the hierarchy of my considerations , 1 Speed, 2 distance, 3 course, 4 going. 5 draw. look what happened to henry cecil when the arabs took their horses away, he was still a brilliant trainer but couldnt get bad horses to win, this was proofed by what he did with the only owner that stuck by him Kalid Abdulla, Frankel et al. without Abdulla he would have been down to rag horses running round the flapping tracks (Cecils own words). Tom Queally has suffered the same fate, without Cecil, he is still a very good jockey but who uses him now? hope that helps Alex. these are just my opinions, you may like to ask @The Brigadier for his opinions and get a more balanced or different perspective all the evidence i have seen is that he knows the time of day when it comes to GG's
Racing chat - Wednesday 28 th July
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
The winner is in there. So a bit of profit after covering the 15 bets it takes for the permutations. Swayze will be better than that, it suffered a good bump coming out of the stalls