South_African_Punter

Kyle Edmund to beat Milos Raonic at 2.25 with SportingBet
I think Milos Raonic was fortunate to get to the SFs of Indian Wells last week, especially given that he nearly lost to a player outside of the Top 200. He hasn't yet played a match here, as he got a bye in R2 after his opponent withdrew. Kyle Edmund is getting quite a few wins under his belt now having come back from injury. He's in a run of good form here. Also the somewhat slow-ish surface should dent Raonic's most powerful weapon.

Kyle Edmund to beat Milos Raonic at 2.25 with SportingBet
I think Milos Raonic was fortunate to get to the SFs of Indian Wells last week, especially given that he nearly lost to a player outside of the Top 200. He hasn't yet played a match here, as he got a bye in R2 after his opponent withdrew. Kyle Edmund is getting quite a few wins under his belt now having come back from injury. He's in a run of good form here. Also the somewhat slow-ish surface should dent Raonic's most powerful weapon.

Kyle Edmund to beat Milos Raonic at 2.25 with SportingBet
I think Milos Raonic was fortunate to get to the SFs of Indian Wells last week, especially given that he nearly lost to a player outside of the Top 200. He hasn't yet played a match here, as he got a bye in R2 after his opponent withdrew. Kyle Edmund is getting quite a few wins under his belt now having come back from injury. He's in a run of good form here. Also the somewhat slow-ish surface should dent Raonic's most powerful weapon.

Kyle Edmund to beat Milos Raonic at 2.25 with SportingBet
I think Milos Raonic was fortunate to get to the SFs of Indian Wells last week, especially given that he nearly lost to a player outside of the Top 200. He hasn't yet played a match here, as he got a bye in R2 after his opponent withdrew. Kyle Edmund is getting quite a few wins under his belt now having come back from injury. He's in a run of good form here. Also the somewhat slow-ish surface should dent Raonic's most powerful weapon.

Angelique Kerber (-2.5) to beat Bianca V. Andreescu @1.90  Local bookie

I already wrote about Andreescu and some of you may have noticed that I bet on her on several occasions, but this time I will go against her, as situational factors are not on her side. I still consider the Canadian as the greatest surprise of the season, but I think she has played too many tennis lately and that her "tank is empty",really no fuel for the final. I watched her match against Svitolina. At the end of the match it seemed to me that she's going to almost start crying as tired as she was. Also this will be the most important match in her career so far and nerves and lack of experience will play a role for sure.
Kerber did have some difficulties in couple of rounds but then she raised her level of play against Venus and against Bencic. Unlike the opponent, she is fresh, she has played a lot of such matches and will know what to do.

Dominic Thiem to beat Milos Raonic at 2.35 with SportingBet
Raonic owns a 2-0 H2H record against Thiem (I'm including that silly exhibition game), however, these were both played in 2016. I think two factors here are crucial. Firstly, and perhaps most importantly, Raonic was very nearly knocked out by a player ranked just outside the top 200 and was also down a break in the 3rd. Struff also had his chances against Raonic but he mentally broke down. Secondly, Thiem has become a better player since 2016 and the fact that two players who love clay court (Thiem and Nadal) are in the SFs here suggest that this is one of the slower hard court surfaces (a point I made in another post I think). He also cruised past another big server in Karlovic earlier in the tournament, so he should not struggle with Raonic's serve.

Dominic Thiem to beat Gael Monfils @ 2.25 with SportingBet
So I believe the price is clearly based on Monfils' recent excellent form, however, I still regard this game as a 50/50. Furthermore, Thiem owns the H2H 4-1 (and not all matches have been on clay). So I will take what I think is the value play here, and pick Thiem.

Dominic Thiem to beat Gael Monfils @ 2.25 with SportingBet
So I believe the price is clearly based on Monfils' recent excellent form, however, I still regard this game as a 50/50. Furthermore, Thiem owns the H2H 4-1 (and not all matches have been on clay). So I will take what I think is the value play here, and pick Thiem.

Dominic Thiem to beat Gael Monfils @ 2.25 with SportingBet
So I believe the price is clearly based on Monfils' recent excellent form, however, I still regard this game as a 50/50. Furthermore, Thiem owns the H2H 4-1 (and not all matches have been on clay). So I will take what I think is the value play here, and pick Thiem.

Dominic Thiem to beat Gael Monfils @ 2.25 with SportingBet
So I believe the price is clearly based on Monfils' recent excellent form, however, I still regard this game as a 50/50. Furthermore, Thiem owns the H2H 4-1 (and not all matches have been on clay). So I will take what I think is the value play here, and pick Thiem.

Just put a small amount on Hurcakz at beginning of TB @2.50 or so. He's playing really well. I'm impressed with the young lad.

Philipp Kohlschreiber (+3.5) to beat Gael Monfils at 1.86 with Pinnacle
Just have to play this after yesterday's result. The German is on fire.

@money44 @South_African_Punter the most comfortable high priced bet ever. Zverev was absolutely far from his form

Jan-Lennard Struff (+4.5 handicap) v Sascha Zverev at 1.72 with SportingBet

I actually think Struff can upset Zverev today, however the 5-0 H2H in favour of Zverev means that I will back the safer option of the +4.5 handicap. I think that Sascha is not 100% fit, and we can't draw too many conclusions from him winning against Klizan, as Klizan retired. 

Felix Auger-Aliassime + Ivo Karlovic at 2.43 with SportingBet
@darko08 has already explained why FAA should win. With regards to Karlovic, I'm very impressed on how he beat Coric - the slower conditions, somewhat oddly for a big server, seems to be helping Dr. Ivo. His opponent can usually be found on the Challenger circuit, so don't think Dr. Ivo should encounter too many problems today.

Jan-Lennard Struff (+4.5 handicap) v Sascha Zverev at 1.72 with SportingBet

I actually think Struff can upset Zverev today, however the 5-0 H2H in favour of Zverev means that I will back the safer option of the +4.5 handicap. I think that Sascha is not 100% fit, and we can't draw too many conclusions from him winning against Klizan, as Klizan retired. 

Felix Auger-Aliassime + Ivo Karlovic at 2.43 with SportingBet
@darko08 has already explained why FAA should win. With regards to Karlovic, I'm very impressed on how he beat Coric - the slower conditions, somewhat oddly for a big server, seems to be helping Dr. Ivo. His opponent can usually be found on the Challenger circuit, so don't think Dr. Ivo should encounter too many problems today.

Felix Auger-Aliassime + Ivo Karlovic at 2.43 with SportingBet
@darko08 has already explained why FAA should win. With regards to Karlovic, I'm very impressed on how he beat Coric - the slower conditions, somewhat oddly for a big server, seems to be helping Dr. Ivo. His opponent can usually be found on the Challenger circuit, so don't think Dr. Ivo should encounter too many problems today.

Felix Auger-Aliassime + Ivo Karlovic at 2.43 with SportingBet
@darko08 has already explained why FAA should win. With regards to Karlovic, I'm very impressed on how he beat Coric - the slower conditions, somewhat oddly for a big server, seems to be helping Dr. Ivo. His opponent can usually be found on the Challenger circuit, so don't think Dr. Ivo should encounter too many problems today.

The problem with backing Ostapenko is similar to that of backing Fognini. So wildly unpredictable that it's impossible to have any degree of confidence in backing her. She can as easily lose 6-0, 6-0 as win 6-0, 6-0. She doesn't have that "fighter spirit" of someone like Halep.

Wow, so many big upsets yesterday - and I haven't looked at the WTA side, which generally has more upsets than the men's game - well in my experience anyway.

Tsitipas, De Minaur, Bautista-Agut, Coric - all out. Wonder what today has in store for us.

It's a good point and I'll expand on it, in a general way.

Let's say Nadal is 1.01 to beat a player ranked 20 in the world - would you back him? Probably not, because it's 1.01 right? What about 1.20? 1.30? 1.50? There comes a time when every bet is backable because the odds are in your opinion, larger than they should be. The real skill in betting is bank management and discipline.  

Same applies to backing underdogs. Of course you have to think they will win, but again, would you back the player ranked 20 at 5000/1? There is always a line and it's actually the odds that dictate whether you should bet or not.

Guys, Andujar is very classy player on clay. When he is in form, he is capable to beat Top 20 players with offensive display, not waiting them to make mistakes or not to have a day. Wu is a fighter, but I don't think he will be capable to beat Pablo, which career was almost destroyed with so many injuries and surgeries. I would skip this match. Yeah, Wu always has a chance to take the match, but there is a syndrome that I am trying to heal in myself. To bet once again on a player that brought you money in his next match.

Jaume Munar to beat Alexei Popyrin at 1.85 with SportingBet
So growing up in Spain, Munar probably has a preference for the "dirty stuff" (clay) over hard courts and grass. However, having read multiple tournament previews of Indian Wells, the surface, although hard, seems to be on the slower side, benefiting Munar. Also from watching yesterday, the wind seems to be causing some problems for some of the players. I feel that Popyrin, with his serve, has a strong preference for faster courts, and thus it won't be such an advantage in today's match.
 

Jaume Munar to beat Alexei Popyrin at 1.85 with SportingBet
So growing up in Spain, Munar probably has a preference for the "dirty stuff" (clay) over hard courts and grass. However, having read multiple tournament previews of Indian Wells, the surface, although hard, seems to be on the slower side, benefiting Munar. Also from watching yesterday, the wind seems to be causing some problems for some of the players. I feel that Popyrin, with his serve, has a strong preference for faster courts, and thus it won't be such an advantage in today's match.