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Tennis - March 11 - March 17


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Philipp Kohlschreiber (+1.5 sets) to beat Novak Djokovic at 4.21 with Pinnacle I was deciding between the games handicap and the sets handicap for this one and decided to play it risky for once,

Felix Auger-Aliassime + Ivo Karlovic at 2.43 with SportingBet @darko08 has already explained why FAA should win. With regards to Karlovic, I'm very impressed on how he beat Coric - the slower con

Dominic Thiem to beat Gael Monfils @ 2.25 with SportingBet So I believe the price is clearly based on Monfils' recent excellent form, however, I still regard this game as a 50/50. Furthermore, Th

Philipp Kohlschreiber (+1.5 sets) to beat Novak Djokovic at 4.21 with Pinnacle

I was deciding between the games handicap and the sets handicap for this one and decided to play it risky for once, hope it pays off. Djokovic was clearly rusty in his first match and that was hardly surprising given that he hasn't played since the Australian Open. He was in no danger of losing, but he could've dropped the first set with a bad shot or two and he's likely to give some chances to Kohli in the second round. The German has an absolutely dreadful record against Novak, but he's taken a few sets off him before and he's in good nick at the moment after crushing Herbert and playing really clutch against Kyrgios. The most crucial aspect of this bet, however, are the odds, as we're getting 4.21 for Djokovic to have a bad set or Kohli to have a really good one, which just looks too good to me.

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Marin Cilic (-1.5 sets) to beat Dusan Lajovic @1.70  local bookie

I'm aware of the fact that Cilic isn't in the best shape,but neither is Lajovic. I've seen Lajovic's match agaist Daniel and i can tell you that he was pretty poor and very lucky to win. He won't stand a chance with that kind of performance against Cilic. Also i think he will struggle with Cilic's agressive shots.

Garbine Muguruza Blanco (+4.5 games) to beat Serena Williams @1.72  local bookie

A little risky bet i admit,but i think that somehow Garbine was always a bad matchup for Serena. Serena won over Azaranka but Vika is not a shadow of a player she was. I'm not sure that Muguruza has what it takes to win the match,but i hope she can cover this line.

Andreescu (vs.Voegele) + Schwartzmann (vs.Carballes Baena) @1,69  local bookie 
Canadian girl Andreescu is still flying high while Voegele is real "blast from the past" in IW this week. Still..i think her run ends here...DIego should be too strong for Spaniard even he also had couple strange results lately 

:hope

Edited by DrO
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Felix Auger to beat Nishioka at 1.65 with Marathonbet

Going with Alex again. 2 very convincing wins here against Norrie (6-3, 6-2) and Tsitsipas (6-4, 6-2). Nishioka has win here against Kudla in a 3 set match and Bautista (7-6, 6-4). Not impressed with his win against Bautista because he had some health problems recently. I think Felix is the right favorite and I expect him taking advantage of Nishioka weak serve.

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Felix Auger-Aliassime + Ivo Karlovic at 2.43 with SportingBet

@darko08 has already explained why FAA should win. With regards to Karlovic, I'm very impressed on how he beat Coric - the slower conditions, somewhat oddly for a big server, seems to be helping Dr. Ivo. His opponent can usually be found on the Challenger circuit, so don't think Dr. Ivo should encounter too many problems today.

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Jan-Lennard Struff (+4.5 handicap) v Sascha Zverev at 1.72 with SportingBet

I actually think Struff can upset Zverev today, however the 5-0 H2H in favour of Zverev means that I will back the safer option of the +4.5 handicap. I think that Sascha is not 100% fit, and we can't draw too many conclusions from him winning against Klizan, as Klizan retired. 

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Mona Barthel to beat Julia Goerges @ 4.09 with Pinnacle - 10 units 

Barthel likes this tournament.. She is playing healthy, and having a great time here relaxed.. Julia Goerges maybe is the more talented player, but she could use some more rest, and playing deep into this tournament is quite a bit dangerous because she's unlikely to beat Pliskova/Osaka/Williams/Sevastova .. any of these players on her side of the draw.. I do think Mona is completely fit, and will desire greatly to see the next round.. We both Barthel last time because Keys was not trustworthy.. It seems as tho Keys played a decent enough match, but once again in form Mona Barthel got the victory.. I expect more of the same today, and goerges may matchup better than Keys because her forehand and serve are not as strong as Keys on this surface. 

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Denis Istomin (-2.5 games) to beat Jozef Kovalik @1.65 Local bookie

I've recently wrote about Jozef Kovalik and his issues trying to come back after a long abstinence. He lost against Popyrin quite easily and i see something similiar happening against Istomin as well. This is Pxoenix challenger and i hope that Denis will be motivated enough to claim a victory.

Ivo Karlovic vs. Prajnesh Gunneswaran over 23.5 games @1.70 Local bookie

Ivo is probably a rightful favourite here,but to be honest i don't like betting on him neither against him. I always like overs though. This line isn't that big and the odds are decent enough. Line can be covered even in two sets - something like 75 75/76 75/76 76

And..yes..i also like Felix to beat Nishioka

:hope

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@money44 that match could have won by both players. A lot of upsets in this tournament so I'm gonna try some ones.

Struff to beat Alexander Zverev at 5.00 with 888

Zverev had some health problems in his last match. 

Lesia Tsurenko to beat Sabalenka at 3.40 with 888

I know Sabalenka is the favorite but giving her these odds against a player like Tsurenko? I know Tsurenko recent form is not the best but she has a lot of tennis and she can win against Sabalenka if she show that tennis. 

Gilles Simon to beat Dominic Thiem at 3.05 with 888

Thiem recent form is horrible. Simon is a hard player to beat and if Thiem is not accurate with his shots we could see him doing a lot of UE. 

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Darko pick rankings 3/11

1. Struff  2. Simon 3. Tsurenko

Hopefully Struff comes through for us... Also.. I think I just made a bad bet on that one with Ostapenko.. She was completely outclassed by Vondrousova.  You were very right about that match... Ostapenko really needs to work on her serve.. It has to be one of the worst, if not the absolute worst serve in the top 100 players. 

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Also yes, I agree with the analysis that Zverev does not look 100% healthy from you and South African Punter.. I wonder if that will affect his motivation to win the match.. If Struff can take the lead in the match .. He is a good frontrunner, and will put alot of pressure on Alexander to come back and win.. Not an easy task if you have some injuries in important areas

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@darko08 I will re-emphasize.. I am surprised that Barthel isn't on your list... I see it as a gift from the bookmakers.. Even though the odds are somewhat fair... They actually are not factoring that Julia is not in her top form, and barthel is.. So I think these odds are just based on paper rankings and reputation.  Barthel has been a banker bet so far this tournament, and I also think its possible that she wins in straight sets although I didn't take that option. 

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3 minutes ago, money44 said:

@darko08 I will re-emphasize.. I am surprised that Barthel isn't on your list... I see it as a gift from the bookmakers.. Even though the odds are somewhat fair... They actually are not factoring that Julia is not in her top form, and barthel is.. So I think these odds are just based on paper rankings and reputation.  Barthel has been a banker bet so far this tournament, and I also think its possible that she wins in straight sets although I didn't take that option. 

I bet against Gorges when she played against Kanepi. I rarely bet more than 1 time against the same player. She could have been on my list, probably is better bet than betting for Tsurenko against Sabalenka. 

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You could make an exception that rule when that players is facing your best bet of the entire tournament in the next match tho.. seems like a good rule , but that exception to the rule might be crucial for profit in the future if Barthel does indeed win today. Or Tsurenko wins, and I'm wrong again. Because honestly I did consider Tsurenko .. I just preferred the German. 

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Kei Nishikori v Hubert Hurkacz over 22,5 games at 2.00 with Bet365

Both players met in Dubai 2 weeks ago and Hurkacz won with 2-1 sets. Nishikori didn't convince in hist 1st match here against Mannarino and won difficulty in the 3rd set with tiebreak. On the other hand Hubert already won 2 matches here and before that he reached the quarterfinals in Dubai, where he lost against Tsitsipas in match with 2 tiebreaks. I expect long game and i think this line will be covered.

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Wang - Andreescu

I don't know why Andreescu is considered the favorite in this match. Yes, she plays pretty well but most of her opponent in last matches were mediocre players: Voegele, Begu, Cibulkova (out of form)...

On the other side Wang has been playing a very good tennis the last half of the year, beating such players as Muguruza, Mertens, Pliskova, Svitolina...

Of course the game may go either way but I think the odds should be more equilibratet than ±1.66 for Andreescu and ±2.20 for Wang (local bookmaker).

 

Other ideas on this? I would give a better chance to Wang than to Andreescu in this game.

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When youngsters like Andreescu hit a patch of form, they're usually really hard to stop and they usually give up only once they run out of mental stamina, which Andreescu seems to have plenty of. Wang is going to beat her if she doesn't show up, but I don't fancy her chances if she does. If I had to choose who to bet on, I'd probably say Wang at the odds, but, if there's value, it's probably only very slight.

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55-131 +131.55 units

5dimes

Parlay: Ashleigh Barty/Hubert Hurkacz +3 games @ 4.5 odds  - 2 units

I was against Nishikori in Dubai.. I think Hurkacz is still serving well, and should be able to hold his own. Barty is also doing well, and Svitolina has some tape on her leg, and maybe a bit tired .. so its a risky bet.. but in combination with the odds... I think its a decent price. 

 

 

Edited by money44
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2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

When youngsters like Andreescu hit a patch of form, they're usually really hard to stop and they usually give up only once they run out of mental stamina, which Andreescu seems to have plenty of. Wang is going to beat her if she doesn't show up, but I don't fancy her chances if she does. If I had to choose who to bet on, I'd probably say Wang at the odds, but, if there's value, it's probably only very slight.

I also have doubts about how good is Wang against players with a strong shot (as Andreescu is). I just remember a past year game of Wang against Yastremska and the chinese just could not do much against those strong shots.

Edited by vvararu
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Today was the most profitable tennis betting day of the year for underdogs.. It was a ghost town in here for the forum which is unusual.. 

I almost posted about 5 plays including Hurkacz, Shapovalov, Kohl outright to win, and wawrinka i guess... so maybe only 4 , but the vondrousova line looked fishy, and I also believed Krajinovic had a chance.. it was a really crazy day of betting.. 

just placed a live bet on Barthel, and she is probably going to win also... This is the type of craziness that I thrive in but unfortunately ... I decided to remain silent today when I would have massive profit with the proper aggression... @CzechPunter @darko08 @South_African_Punter @four-leaf @ogii55 remember this day next year, because there will be many underdogs again .. its a good day to bet ... second week of indian wells. 

I won't name the entire forum right now , but there is alot of new people here doing a good job... just dropped a few. ok guys - :cheers

Edited by money44
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Muguruza - Andreescu

My call for today is Muguruza to win @ ~1.7 (unibet).

Spaniard looks to be on fire now. First of all, she finally succeeded to beat, 5-6 games ago, her frightening opponent with big serve - Yastremska (a type of player with powerful shot but not very good on long rallies). Yesterday she won over Bertens (a type of player with not very powerful shot but very good on rallies). I think her morale is up and healthy and she can fight any type of player right now.

A very important thing is that Muguruza is a very good returner. That should work great against Andreescu's mediocre serves.

If Muguruza does not have a new morale breakdown for some reason, I think she can easily dispatch the Canadian.

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