yossa6133

520 york low draws 
Easy one this ....Just 1 horse has a high rating 8.9 in low draws ....unequal love ......so I'll try 10pt win at 4/1 ....😃

York 1.50 The Skybet Lowther may be fought out by William Haggas’s Relief Rally and Aiden O’Brien’s Cherry Blossom. Preference is for the latter who looked a smart filly when winning a 6f Curragh maiden twelve days ago. This is a step up in grade but she can prove up to it with her main rival Relief Rally stepping up to 6F for the first time and maybe preferring some more ease in the ground.   CHERRY BLOSSOM 2 points win @ 5/2 bet365   York 2.25 A big field for the Goffs Harry Beeby Yearling Stakes over 6F. This year’s renewal has a very open look about it and although the Richard Hannon four runners have to be taken seriously as he’s won this race five out of the last 7 years its the Archie Watson runner Ambushed that may be the each way value in the contest at a big price each way with additional places. He showed much improved form at Newcastle in June in first time cheek pieces when beating Ballymount Boy a neck at level weights. That one has gone on to chase home Vandeek at Goodwood in the Group 2 Richmond and runs in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes on Wednesday afternoon. Taking that run at face value puts Ambushed in with every chance though the draw of 20 is a bit concerning.   AMBUSHED 1 point each way @ 20/1 bet365 1/5th 12345   York 3.00 A maximum turnout of twenty here for the Clipper Handicap, a Heritage Handicap run over 1M. Roger Varian holds an excellent chance with his 2.7 million guineas yearling Akhu Najla who is a half brother to 2000 Guineas winner Galileo Gold. His re-appearance run after 308 days off was an eye-catching one when finishing strongly in fourth to Ghaly at Ascot on King George day. With that run behind him now and a decent draw in four he looks worthy of a good each way bet with David Egan on board.   AKHU NAJLA 2 points each way @ 11/2 William Hill 1/5th 123456   York 3.35 The 1m 4F Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks is the feature race of the afternoon and with the ground tightening up I want to be against the likely favourite Savethelastdance who needed all of the 12F last time in the Irish Oaks to wear down Bluestocking who re-opposes here and could turn the tables. The better value however may well be Al Husn who is already a Group one winner and is stepping up in trip today. Her dam stayed 10F and her half sister’s best run was actually over 14F so there are clues in the breeding that she can see out the trip and if this was over 10F I feel she would be pushing for favouritism. In the hope she sees out the trip she’s the selection each way.   AL HUSN 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 123   York 4.10 The 1m 4F listed Galtres Stakes features thirteen fillies and mares and has an open look about it. William Haggas saddles a brace in the William Buick ridden Market Value and the Tom Marquand ridden Sea Theme who looks the pick each way. The lightest raced of the thirteen she impressed when winning a 1M 4F novice stakes at Doncaster on soft ground four weeks ago by 3L from Cherry. It’ll be different ground today but her breeding line suggests that shouldn’t be an issue and with further improvement likely can score here.   SEA THEME 1 point each way @ 9/2 bet365 1/5th 1234   York 4.45 A twenty runner 7F nursery is up next and one again the race has an open look about it. The one that catches my eye here however is the Richard Hannon trained, Andrea Atzeni ridden Blue Collar who enters handicaps off of a mark of 77, which looks lenient to my eyes. He was an eye-catcher at Newmarket last time over an inadequate 6F trip when staying on well to finish fourth of 14 in a maiden that is likely to work out well. In a wide open handicap he looks a spot of value each way.   BLUE COLLAR 1 point each way @ 12/1 Coral 1/5th 12345   York 5.20 Three year old’s have won seven out of the last ten renewals of this 7F class 2 fillies handicap and this year’s renewal can once again go to the classic generation in the shape of William Haggas’s improving Unequal Love. She’s won her last three starts including when in handicap company for the first time at Haydock 13 days ago when always looking in control when defeating her two rivals by 1 3/4L. A rise of just 5lb looks fair enough and with Tom Marquand on board and a decent draw in stall 3 can take this valuable contest.   UNEQUAL LOVE 2 points win @ 4/1 BetVictor

The opening race at the York Ebor meeting is a 5 furlongs heritage handicap with a field of 20 runners.
Some bookmakers offer 6 places which makes this an excellent betting proposition.
I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.
Horses that finished 1st or 2nd last time have an excellent record with 6 winners from 34 runners and a profit of 86 points at BSP. The remainder have 3 wins from  143 runs with a loss of 91 points.
There were 63 horses that ran more than 22 days ago and all lost.
7 out of 79 were bred in Ireland with a profit of 73 points.
This leaves just one horse, the favourite JM JUNGLE, available at 8/1
The only downside is the draw in stall 19, as has already been mentioned elsewhere low draws have a better record at this meeting. However El Astronaute did win this from stall 18 in 2018 and King Of Stars was 2nd last year from stall 22 so it's not impossible.

I don't think the ground issue will make a difference although it is a small worry obviously. The players are all on 2 year contracts. I think the fans are probably nervy given what a nightmare time of things they have had in recent years.

York 1.50 He may be eight years old but surprisingly this is only the second handicap of his 37 run career that Charlie Hills’s smart sprinter has run in, with the previous run coming at Meydan in February 2021 when winning by half a length off of the same mark as he races off today. The slow ground was against him last time at Goodwood but a reproduction of any of previous three starts this season in pattern company could be good enough to win this valuable 5 1/2F class 2 handicap with Jamie Spencer riding him for the first time. Stall 12 may not be ideal but his class may tell.   EQUILATERAL 1 point each way @ 10/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345   York 2.25 Adrian Paul Keatley is not renowned for training decent juveniles but he may have one on his hands here in the shape of his Camacho colt who’s stand out piece of form came in the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood earlier this month when pushing the subsequent Prix Morny winner Vandeek to a length in the mud. He had won his maiden on a less taxing surface previously at Hamilton and can fend off the maiden winners Cogitate and Edwardian.   BALLYMOUNT BOY 1 point win @ 9/4 bet365   York 3.00 The unbeaten John & Thady Gosden trained Gregory can cement his position at the head of the St Leger with victory in the Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes despite a 3lb penalty for his Group 2 Queen’s Vase success at Royal Ascot in June. The Wathnan Racing owned Golden Horn colt is unbeaten in three starts and may have most to fear from the Aiden O’Brien trained Continuous. Frankie Dettori rode him at Ascot and retains the ride today.   GREGORY 1 point win @ 11/8 William Hill   York 3.35 Only four line up for the Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes with Aiden O’Brien’s Paddington a warm favourite. A winner of his last seven races including the Group one’s Irish 2000 Guineas, St James Palace Stakes, Coral-Eclipse and Sussex Stakes. He appears to have an iron resolution and acts on any ground. He’ll be hard to beat even if the Gosden runner Mostahdaf will be no pushover if reproducing his Prince Of Wales’ Stakes win at Royal Ascot. An intriguing contest with Paddington the one to be with.   YORK 4.10 An Intriguing 2M class two handicap where it may well be worth taking a chance on the Tony Martin trained ex- French performer Zanndabad with the eye catching jockey booking of Ryan Moore. A four time winner for his previous trainer F-H Graffard, he’s had just the one run for Martin on the flat when down the field in a 14F handicap in May when easy to back. He’s yet to race on good fast ground but his four half brothers all won on fast ground in good company so we may even see an improved horse on today’s better ground.   ZANNDABAD 1 point each way 6/1 Ladbrokes 1/5th 1234   York 4.45 John Butler’s four year old chestnut filly won this very race quite comfortably last year by 2 1/2L and is back to try to win it again off of a 5lb higher handicap mark. He was a big eye-catcher last time out when failing to get any sort of run between the two and one furlong marker at Goodwood eventually finishing fourth of 12 looking like he’s ready to strike soon. William Buick gets the call up today and looks to have an excellent chance as long as he can cope with his wing draw of fourteen of 14.   DESIGNER 2 points win @ 9/2 William Hill   York 5.20 Day one of York’s Ebor meeting concludes with a twenty runner nursery. Ryan Moore could, hopefully, be in for a good day and can take the finale with the in form Ralph Beckett trained Starlust who beat Saturday’s easy Newmarket winner Array at Newbury prior to an excellent second of 12 in a valuable Goodwood nursery beaten 1 1/2L by Serried Ranks, a neck ahead of Dapper Valley who re-opposes on 1lb better terms today. The colt holds a Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes next month and can reward each way backers today.   STARLUST 1 point each way @ 11/2 bet365 1/5th 12345

Newtown Abbot. 
5.00. Saxon Queen     6/1  unpll
3.30. The Geogie Ginge       3/1 unpl
singles & double 
stk 6.00     rtn 78.00
Good luck all. 

It’s how we roll, Galileo gold, junoesque and borough all second!
all on the nose selections.

I wasn't going to back at york namely because the form seems to go out the window there ....but ivevbeen doing some research and I think I may have found the reason why .....there seems to be a very prominent low draw development at york ....in fact in one sprint race I looked at 5 of the first 6 home were all drawn low ......so I'm going to try and use that as a weapon this time by rating the bottom 1/3 draw only and seeing whether that improves things this time ....worth a try as last couple of meets there it was chucking money down toilet....results were a joke but this might explain why ......only 2 qualifiers in 1st race ...these 2 way ahead in low draws 
150 york 
Korker   8.7 10/1  
Intrinsic bond   8.6 11.5 
10pt wins both 

Yep I do keep an eye out for good debutants who have run well at Newcastle, because they transfer really well to turf. Gave 9lbs away there so handicap debut will be interesting. The added bonus was a ready winner before going in to turf.

Catterick 
335
Harappan
win
big sales purchase after good third at Newcastle. Won  comfortably on  yard debut at Wolverhampton. Gives half a stone away here but may be just good enough on turf debut at this trip.

10/1 is definitely too big for Dubois. However, for me, it's Usyk. Just hard to find some value with Usyk winning at the moment lol

Should be a good heavyweight scrap.
Usyk correctly the strong favourite but i can't resist a nibble at the 10/1 on Dubois by stoppage (bet365).
He's young and can bang and is saying the right things about landing punches anywhere he can. Chisora did better than AJ against Usyk and Dubois has a similar seek and destroy style to Del Boy, only he's younger, fresher and hits harder...if he can land then Usyk will not have a comfortable night.
Obviously Usyk might bamboozle and outclass him, but the price is right for a speculative play, especially as Usyk is now 36.
 
 
888 Sport have Dubois by stoppage at 11/1 so I cashed out bet365 and took that.

Catterick 2:25
sameen
each way
the dancing poet
win
a winner at this time in August the last two years under this pilot.
Brighton
4:20
Galileo Glass
win
yards only runner and Hollie Doyle booked. 

£22.90 back from the double on the two "S-S" horses. Gone went and finished second in the last leg to deny me the treble, but beaten by 4 lengths so I can't grumble too much.
My ROI from the 12 L15s so far is 126.56% (£45.56 profit from the £36 outlay). You'd be £50 up if you'd had a quid on all of my 43 runners with an ROI of 116.3%. Just be thankful I don't enter the naps competition! 
I assume it goes without saying but I wouldn't recommend following my selections just yet. We'd have to be living in a parallel universe for me to be getting those sort of returns from horses in the long run. All good fun though so belated thanks to @Zilzalian for being the preacher man when it comes to the joys of this bet!

Best racing is in Deauville France today and is as usual very competitive. so a few thoughts from this chair.
i will be stunned if Fabre doesn't have at least 2 winners which 2 is a conundrum in itself.
Hate to say it but River Tiber comes out best on speed figures for the 2yo (325) race followed by thunder blue (dodgy) the play may well be Elite Status at a very generous 11/1.
Not sure about via sistina in the 250 but it is defo too short, Trevanaunce beat masque de sevigne fair and square last year but is 4 times the price of that horse in this, at 28/1 might be worth a sheckle or two. I quite like one for bobby but i don't like the price, if you fancy it i would play/risk the PM.

Deauville 1600......Sober 11-4 generally  . The Good Man will probably start fav he shows a good turn of foot , but tomorrows race is over 1m 6f 1100yds on heavy ground and Sober takes forever to get into gear . Just hope M.Guyon makes his move earlier and drags the finish out of the others and doesn`t give first run to something else and finishes too late again .

Not very often you get a  60000 race on a Sunday!!....so I've gotta play !
Gale force maya  9.0 3/1 84 62 98 
Another romance  8.6 88 35 54 
Funny story  8.6  28 52 41 
Nothing at all between 2nd and 3rd rated so either could be ew material but top rated is quite a bit in front and has very consistent high class ratings .....at 3/1 looks worth a bet 
Top rated 10pt win 3/1 

silver samuria  delivers and  wobwobwob for place money  so football at the duck + pints,curry, and fur to finish off the evening 😃

6 of the last 9 winners have carried between 8st 12lbs and 9st 1lb, 6 from 39, LSP 77 points. Remainder 3 from 122, LSP - 85.
This gives RAATEA at 22/1 and HYPERFOCUS at 10/1 ( 6 places BET365).
 

Morning all from Newmarket 🐎 looking forward to day at races and some of you guys / gals increasing our accounts with your NAPS  / tips 🤞 while we watching the racing at HQ in the sunshine looks like 😎 🌞....so here is what we have chosen to back online after the NRs ......
Newbury 2.25    Katey Kontent    10/1 EW      3rd
Ripon 2.40  American star  15/2 EW    &      Cooperation  17/2 EW...........   5 places
Don 3.05    Come Together  11/1 EW  
Ripon 3.15   Twelfth Knight  25/1 EW    &     Bay Breeze     20/1 EW        6 places
Curr 3.27   Spanish Flame  7/1 EW 
Newb 3.35    Marbaan  8/1 EW
Curr 4.00     Snellen  5/1   
Newb 4.40    Clever Relation   28/1 EW       4 places
 
😱 oh dear guys/ gals, 'must do better' my old form teacher would say......10 selections / 100pts invested......not that bad as 50pts down from each account....hope some of you had good day and 'we' will continue to follow / select from you guys/gals after this week alone, as Mrs Brahmin hit twice with 2 big EW wins from NAP leaderboard top 10 👍  
 

Some half interesting stuff.....
327 Curr     Henry Longfellow 4/11 might be the best thing since sliced bread but Spanish flame at 6/1 has the better numbers.
400 Curr     Pearls and Rubies 9/4? Snellen 9/2 beat it fair and square at Ascot you work that one out coz i can't.
225 Newb  One from last years 2yolds Katey Kontent big price at 16/1 assuming it trained on.
335 newb Marbaan is no forlorn hope in this.

Good luck with Saturday's bets if you're going in early , loads of rain forecast ( again ) I bet they'll be lots of non runners & another Saturday for the mudlarks the sons & daughters of Pivotals , Wooton Bassett's etc... 

Newbury 1.50 Eight line up for the Group 3 BetVictor Geoffrey Freer Stakes. As long as the ground doesn’t dry up too much this looks a good opportunity for the John & Thady Gosden trained Arrest who was very impressive when bolting up in the Chester Vase Stakes at Chester in May on soft ground, for which he carries a 3lb penalty here. He has flopped twice since in the Derby and King Edward VI at Royal Ascot but they both came on lightning fast ground and is worth another chance to prove he can have a fruitful autumn campaign. Frankie Dettori is here just for the one ride which is a tip in itself. Any rain will obviously suit him.   ARREST 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365   Newmarket 2.05 This unique 6F class 4 handicap is only eligible for horses registered as grey and has a wide open look about it this year. We have four three year olds in the field of 16 and its one of them, the Andrew Balding trained Celtic Champion that catches my eye. Quite highly regarded as a two year old when winning at Salisbury, he impressed when winning at Lingfield on the all-weather in February but has not been seen since, an absence of 189 days. In the hope that the David Probert ridden son of Adaay is straight enough he looks the pick her each way with additional places.   CELTIC CHAMPION 1 point each way @ 6/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345   Newbury 2.25 A competitive eleven runner 5F handicap is up next and it’s the top weight Whenthedealisdone that catches my eye. His last success came at around this time last year when an easy 3L winner at Ascot off of a handicap mark of 90. He’s shown bits and pieces of form this season dropping 11lb to a mark of 87 and his shrewd trainer Roger Teal has booked champion jockey William Buick to ride him today. Jack Channon’s three year old Desperate Hero is another with claims as his latest run at Goodwood can be marked up as he was badly drawn but I’ll give Whenthedealisdone another chance at a track where he’s won before.   WHENTHEDEALISDONE 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Ripon 2.40 A highly competitive 6F handicap which may give us some clues as to where you want to be drawn for the Great St Wilfrid in 35 minutes time. Adrian Nicholls’s Thornaby Pearl has a good record here of two wins from three starts and may be the one to be with each way with Barry McHugh in the saddle. He was an easy winner by 4 1/4L over course and distance on soft ground last month and got bogged down on even softer ground twelve days later at Nottingham. Back at a track that obviously suits he can reward an each way bet with additional places.   THORNABY PEARL 1 point each way @ 10/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234   Newbury 3.00 Only four three year old’s take on their elders in this fourteen runner class 2 7F handicap and it’s one of them, the Richard Hannon trained Classic that stands out to me here. His recent win at Sandown has been boosted since by the runner up Novus running an unlucky second and then winning at Goodwood and with that one now 6lb higher it’s Classic who may now be well in following just a 2lb rise. The lightly raced son of Dubawi will be ridden by Pat Dobbs again and looks good each way value with additional places.   CLASSIC 1 point each way @ 8/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 1234   Ripon 3.15 A competitive renewal of the 6F Great St Wilfrid Handicap which has over the years favoured those drawn high (though last year the field was smaller than usual and the front three were drawn low). The horse I like here is the very much in form Kevin Philippart De Foy trained Cairn Gorm who’s nicely berthed in stall 14. A Group 3 winner as a juvenile for Mick Channon he’s been rated as high 103 in the past and is favourably weighted off of 84 here. A York winner by 1/2L from Asadjumeirah with the subsequent dual winner Manila Scouse a length and three quarters back in fourth, he will be ridden today by the more than capable Laura Pearson. He can be backed each way with additional places.   CAIRN GORM 1 point each way @ 16/1 bet365 1/5th 123456   Newbury 3.35 The 7F Class 2 Hungerford Stakes doesn’t have the same quality as previous year’s with ten going to post. Bar the two outsiders the remaining eight are separated officially by only 9lb with the current front pair in the betting Chindit and Jumby not likely to be suited by the current soft ground conditions it maybe worth chancing the John & Thady Gosden runner Mostabshir, who is dropped in trip and sports first time blinkers today. He’s yet to race on an easy surface although his half brothers Mostahdaf and Nayef have both won on soft so is worth chancing with William Buick on board.   MOSTABSHIR 1 point each way @ 7/1 BetVictor 1/5th 123     A tough day with no real stand out bet.    

4.20 Nb Zouky 1 pt ew at 10.  Did this before I saw Richard's ratings so had 4 pts each to win on his top 2 as well.

15:15 Newbury - Invincible Tiger
18:35 Thirsk - Abate