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Racing chat-thurs 24th August (york day 2)


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York 1.50
The Skybet Lowther may be fought out by William Haggas’s Relief Rally and Aiden O’Brien’s Cherry Blossom. Preference is for the latter who looked a smart filly when winning a 6f Curragh maiden twelve days ago. This is a step up in grade but she can prove up to it with her main rival Relief Rally stepping up to 6F for the first time and maybe preferring some more ease in the ground.
 
CHERRY BLOSSOM 2 points win @ 5/2 bet365
 
York 2.25
A big field for the Goffs Harry Beeby Yearling Stakes over 6F. This year’s renewal has a very open look about it and although the Richard Hannon four runners have to be taken seriously as he’s won this race five out of the last 7 years its the Archie Watson runner Ambushed that may be the each way value in the contest at a big price each way with additional places. He showed much improved form at Newcastle in June in first time cheek pieces when beating Ballymount Boy a neck at level weights. That one has gone on to chase home Vandeek at Goodwood in the Group 2 Richmond and runs in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes on Wednesday afternoon. Taking that run at face value puts Ambushed in with every chance though the draw of 20 is a bit concerning.
 
AMBUSHED 1 point each way @ 20/1 bet365 1/5th 12345
 
York 3.00
A maximum turnout of twenty here for the Clipper Handicap, a Heritage Handicap run over 1M. Roger Varian holds an excellent chance with his 2.7 million guineas yearling Akhu Najla who is a half brother to 2000 Guineas winner Galileo Gold. His re-appearance run after 308 days off was an eye-catching one when finishing strongly in fourth to Ghaly at Ascot on King George day. With that run behind him now and a decent draw in four he looks worthy of a good each way bet with David Egan on board.
 
AKHU NAJLA 2 points each way @ 11/2 William Hill 1/5th 123456
 
York 3.35
The 1m 4F Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks is the feature race of the afternoon and with the ground tightening up I want to be against the likely favourite Savethelastdance who needed all of the 12F last time in the Irish Oaks to wear down Bluestocking who re-opposes here and could turn the tables. The better value however may well be Al Husn who is already a Group one winner and is stepping up in trip today. Her dam stayed 10F and her half sister’s best run was actually over 14F so there are clues in the breeding that she can see out the trip and if this was over 10F I feel she would be pushing for favouritism. In the hope she sees out the trip she’s the selection each way.
 
AL HUSN 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 123
 
York 4.10
The 1m 4F listed Galtres Stakes features thirteen fillies and mares and has an open look about it. William Haggas saddles a brace in the William Buick ridden Market Value and the Tom Marquand ridden Sea Theme who looks the pick each way. The lightest raced of the thirteen she impressed when winning a 1M 4F novice stakes at Doncaster on soft ground four weeks ago by 3L from Cherry. It’ll be different ground today but her breeding line suggests that shouldn’t be an issue and with further improvement likely can score here.
 
SEA THEME 1 point each way @ 9/2 bet365 1/5th 1234
 
York 4.45
A twenty runner 7F nursery is up next and one again the race has an open look about it. The one that catches my eye here however is the Richard Hannon trained, Andrea Atzeni ridden Blue Collar who enters handicaps off of a mark of 77, which looks lenient to my eyes. He was an eye-catcher at Newmarket last time over an inadequate 6F trip when staying on well to finish fourth of 14 in a maiden that is likely to work out well. In a wide open handicap he looks a spot of value each way.
 
BLUE COLLAR 1 point each way @ 12/1 Coral 1/5th 12345
 
York 5.20
Three year old’s have won seven out of the last ten renewals of this 7F class 2 fillies handicap and this year’s renewal can once again go to the classic generation in the shape of William Haggas’s improving Unequal Love. She’s won her last three starts including when in handicap company for the first time at Haydock 13 days ago when always looking in control when defeating her two rivals by 1 3/4L. A rise of just 5lb looks fair enough and with Tom Marquand on board and a decent draw in stall 3 can take this valuable contest.
 
UNEQUAL LOVE 2 points win @ 4/1 BetVictor
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The quality racing at York continues on Thursday with another 2 heritage handicaps.

The first is the Clipper Handicap at 3.00. This is open to 3-year-olds or older. The off time is 15.00.

There are 20 runners and with some bookmakers offering 6 places it makes it an excellent betting proposition.

I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.

Horses at the top of the betting have not performed well. The top 3 in the forecast have produced just 1 win 34 attempts with a loss of 27 points. The remainder have 8 wins from 115 runs with a profit of 28 points.

Horses bred in the UK have a good record with 6 wins from 61 runs and a profit of 59 points.

Horses drawn 1 to 4 have the best record with 4 wins from 33 runs with a profit of 2 points.

Just 1 horse matches these criteria, MASTER RICHARD, available at 20/1.

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The 2nd big handicap on day 2 of the Ebor Festival is the EBF Fillies Handicap. This is open to 3-year-olds or older. The off time is 17.20.

There are 20 runners and with most bookmakers offering 5 places it makes it a good betting proposition.

Again I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.

Horses that last ran between 6 and 20 days ago have a good record with 6 wins from 47 runs with a profit of 10 points.

Horses that finished 1st or 2nd last time have 7 wins from 52 runs with a profit of 13 points.

Horses carrying between 9st 1lb and 9st 10lbs have 5 wins from 39 runs with a profit of 9 points. 

2 horses match these criteria, UNEQUAL LOVE at 10/3 and INTERNATIONAL GIRL at 22/1.

 

 

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Dapperling                                       2 25 Yrk /         1/40th of a pt ew    18/1

Stay Alert                                          3 35 Yrk/          1/40th of a pt win   15/1        - 2nd

Moracana                                         4 10 Yrk/          1/40th of a pt win   10/1

Outbreak                                          3 00 Yrk/          1/40th of a pt ew     80/1        - N/R

Rock Melody                                    5 20 Yrk/          1/40th of a pt ew     40/1

 

 

 

 

 

P/L   +169.10 pts

 

Edited by black rabbit
selections
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Hi all, well its Ladies Day 💃 and not just at York, but on here to. We had great day with winners on Day 1 thread, far better than we hoped! So when Forza Orta won @14/1 we were delighted and settled for over 3 figure profit...... however, we then had winner in last as well from the 'Day 1 selections comp' as we back all of those to........soooo see how today goes 🤞 and give my husband nice surprise, after what is looking like for him, most of afternoon at Airport waiting for daughter / family to arrive back in UK 😱 .........

 

R Moore 1 winner at York @ EVS  ( max £10 betfair)    WIN     R Moore  2 winners at York  3/1      R Moore top 4 finish all 6 rides  33/1  ( so close with 5!) 

1.50  Relief Rally  2/1    WIN    ( b365 boost )                 Star of Mystery   11/2

2.25  We never stop   18/1 EW      (b365)              Grey Cuban  28/1 EW     (betfair)                    5 places

3.00  Terwada  14/1 EW      (betfair)                    Darkness  20/1 EW         (b365)                     The Gatekeeper    12/1 EW   (b365)             6 places

3.35  Bluestocking  6/1                             Al Husn     9/2

4.10  Modaara  7/1 EW  NR  (b365)        Sea Theme   9/4   WON  5/2          Moracana   11/1 EW         One Evening  6/1 EW   2nd  7/1    (b365) 4 places

 

        3 WINS 🏆 🏆🏆 and 1 EW place........just in profit, won enough for bottle of wine 😂

Edited by Brahmin
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Stratford 

FRANZ KLAMMER

Each way

off his Feed for shy of 450 days.

Figures

8-9P65U8-0P7P506P-430492-P031112-P- 
misleading form figures as the pulled up is preceeded by a second and three straight course wins. Course and distance wins all of them save for the little matter of about 15 yards all of them chase wins but hope springs eternal although 0-21 in this sphere…..

Edited by Sporting Sam
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York 3pm
Blue for you
Each way
The chief recipient of all the physics in a race won multiple times by David O’Meara. Add Danny Tudhope and the top weight has an intoxicating cocktail.
The Gatekeeper
Each way
For Charlie Johnston has similar claims and ran a blinder when last seen. The bottom weight carrying a penalty is a significant factor and should impact on both of the selections hopefully positively.

Edited by Sporting Sam
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5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Had a 2pt win L15 and Acca on the daily

3.00 Yk Darkness 0.50 ew at 20/1 6p and Master Richard 0.50 ew at 14/1 6p (backed Northern Express in the L15)

Had 5 pts win on @richard-westwood's selection Unequal Love at 5.3 in the 5.20; also recommended by @The Brigadierthough win or lose it doesn't count towards my RC P/L

I laid Savethelastdance I/R for a couple of quid profit.  One must always have a saver on Aiden O'Briens second string mustn't one.  Doesn't count in my figures though

4.10 Yk Scenic 1 pt win at 9.6

4.45 Yk Blue Collar 1 pt ew at 12.63b on Betfair

Total stakes 7 points today

I keep telling myself not to back singles bets and just get 4 horses and put them in a L15, much more fun and less costly

Where's @Zilzalian, let's hope that he was entertaining a Ropey Guest with Tom Queally aboard

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RESULTS UPDATE

Just 1 winner in the L15 returned 1.15, hence a loss of 5.85 today, MTD  -40.51 YTD -27.15.  L15 -29.33 MTD +63.71 YTD, RW fund still +27.93 after a 6 points loss today

 

 

Edited by The Equaliser
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25 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I laid Savethelastdance I/R for a couple of quid profit.  One must always have a saver on Aiden O'Briens second string mustn't one.  Doesn't count in my figures though

4.10 Yk Scenic 1 pt win at 9.6

4.45 Yk Blue Collar 1 pt ew at 12.63b on Betfair

Total stakes 7 points today

I keep telling myself not to back singles bets and just get 4 horses and put them in a L15, much more fun and less costly

Where's @Zilzalian, let's hope that he was entertaining a Ropey Guest with Tom Queally aboard

I think SAVETHELASTDANCE similar to stable mate PADDINGTON prefer the term ' soft ' somewhere in the going to be at their best .

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Stratford
5:00

I LOOK HOW I LOOK
Win
The skeltons introduce this full sister to Nuba Negre grade two listed winner and nothing comes near this one on breeding.
If they have schooled her and have her ready will be hard to beat.
Lots of questions on that score especially if they intend a patient approach leading to fences but the price factors that and worth a go.

Edited by Sporting Sam
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