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Racing chat -Sunday 20th August


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Not very often you get a  60000 race on a Sunday!!....so I've gotta play !

Gale force maya  9.0 3/1 84 62 98 

Another romance  8.6 88 35 54 

Funny story  8.6  28 52 41 

Nothing at all between 2nd and 3rd rated so either could be ew material but top rated is quite a bit in front and has very consistent high class ratings .....at 3/1 looks worth a bet 

Top rated 10pt win 3/1 

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Deauville 1600......Sober 11-4 generally  . The Good Man will probably start fav he shows a good turn of foot , but tomorrows race is over 1m 6f 1100yds on heavy ground and Sober takes forever to get into gear . Just hope M.Guyon makes his move earlier and drags the finish out of the others and doesn`t give first run to something else and finishes too late again .

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415 sand 

Get it   8.2  11/2  86 27 

Arecibo   8.0 16/1  66 90 88 

Swayze   7.7  53 30 44 

Difficult race because the fav is coming back after 3 day layoff ....is that too short ???....arecibo has high class figures but ran a bit of a stinker lto but is capable on his day and Swayze isn't out of it but this looks a,step up for him ....I'll try 5pt ew top 2 and hope arecibos stinker was a blip and he bounces back to form 

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Craft Irish                                           3 25 Pon/             1/40th of a pt ew    25/1

Arecibo                                               4 15 San/              1/40th of a pt ew   20/1

Alrehb                                                 5 45 San               1/40th of a pt ew   16/1

Ice Cold In Alex                                  3 00 Cra/              1/40th of a pt ew   18/1

 

 

 

 

P/L  +169. PTS

Edited by black rabbit
selections
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some early bets of your NAPs and our choices, so 1 nice EW win to pay for our Al Fresco lunch ( outside in sunshine guys 🌞 ) in Cambridge by the river as 'Thank you' with our friends 🥂🍱

Curr 2.00     Barley Cove   33/1 EW        &          Grand City Hall    16/1 EW      3rd                   4 places       bet365

South 2.35    Suntory Star   22/1 EW     &        Sir Arthurs Boy    100/1 EW           betfair

Curr 3.00       Blairmaine    14/1 EW               4 places   bet365

South 4.10    Eagle Prince   16/1 EW               4 places     betfair

South  5.10    Brandy Station  22/1 EW            betfair

Ponte 5.00    Rhythm   25/1 EW                      4 places   bet365

 

Few selections in France..........to pay for dessert 🍎 🍨 

2.15   Eliyass   11/4     WON       bet365 boost    

2.50   Above the Curve   4/1    bet365 boost  &       Trevaunance   28/1 EW     bet365        

3.25   River Tiber     11/4    bet365 boost     &      Elite Status   11/1    EW     bet365      

4.00   The Good Man   11/4    bet365

 

1 win 🏆 and 1 EW place sooo not a complete no return! no profit tho 😱  ......on plus side, have £10 bonus credited to play with 💷 and had great weekend 😎

Edited by Brahmin
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Best racing is in Deauville France today and is as usual very competitive. so a few thoughts from this chair.

i will be stunned if Fabre doesn't have at least 2 winners which 2 is a conundrum in itself.

Hate to say it but River Tiber comes out best on speed figures for the 2yo (325) race followed by thunder blue (dodgy) the play may well be Elite Status at a very generous 11/1.

Not sure about via sistina in the 250 but it is defo too short, Trevanaunce beat masque de sevigne fair and square last year but is 4 times the price of that horse in this, at 28/1 might be worth a sheckle or two. I quite like one for bobby but i don't like the price, if you fancy it i would play/risk the PM.

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Agree with @Zilzalian on couple of these

Deauville 

250 - One For Bobby @ 8/1 ew bet365 

Ran career best last time on first start in France, the 2nd franked it when 2nd to a top class filly the other day. Ground should suit.

325 - Elite Status @ 10/1 ew Hills |  Sajir @ 20/1 ew bet365 

Elite Status was strong at the finish to see off Sajir 3 weeks ago here a Deauville but it wouldn't be a suprise if Sajir were to find more improvement on only its 3rd start.

400 - Measure Of Time @ 10/1 ew betfair 

Ran eyecatching race here 3 weeks ago after a year off. Got messed around in midfield and shuffled back to last, then finished strong for 3rd, should have more to give. 

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Aidan O’Brien is making lots of negative noise about his runner in the 3:25 Deauville: Prix Morny river Tiber.

he made similar noises before Newmarket in may about disrupted travel plans and the going and both of his runners ran terribly. He at least sends out some signals rather than the usual trainer gumph of “he’s never been better, has a great chance “

He says the colt who is unbeaten will be better for this run and has lost ten days of preparation. He hasn’t sited the ground as an issue but is at least “warning  people off” not to over expect great things. Before Paddington reappeared He stated that he had made “ ABNORMAL IMPROVEMENT “ and so it proved in the Sussex with inspiral the only runner to attempt to force anything on the wrong ground before tailing off, improving for the run to win in France soon after.

with all that in mind I’d be after laying river Tiber even at his generous odds today. 
the progressive french filly stepping up to group 1 along with Valliant force are my two to side with.

The french runner has been out every month since April going down just the once to a colt in may when forcing the issue from the front. Has settled before asserting upped in grade each time and scored by over four lengths in group three and two the last twice.

AMO’s Valliant Force could be anything but was most impressive at Ascot and not seen since, can get amongst them at rewarding each way odds stepping up in trip. Kevin Stott is on board so you won’t die wondering.

It  would be no suprise to see River Tiber run well under Ryan Moore but I’m expecting him not to be knocked about, but tested to see what’s what. But O’Brien himself advises “caution “

In the end, I’ve gone for Valliant force to place, may regret it  if he wins but I’m with the french horse here who is by justify.
 

RAMATUELLE

win

VALLIANT FORCE

To place ( five places)

 

 

 

Edited by Sporting Sam
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8 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

race times suggest that there is no way that it is heavy ground at deauville still cant work out why masque de sevine has been backed to 10/3 and trevaunance is 40/1 memories are short. but we will see.

well i dont think Fabre will be too chuffed with Pouchin if Masque got beat in this race seems the market got it about right

Lucky boy Pouchin.

Edited by Zilzalian
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5 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Best racing is in Deauville France today and is as usual very competitive. so a few thoughts from this chair.

i will be stunned if Fabre doesn't have at least 2 winners which 2 is a conundrum in itself.

Hate to say it but River Tiber comes out best on speed figures for the 2yo (325) race followed by thunder blue (dodgy) the play may well be Elite Status at a very generous 11/1.

Not sure about via sistina in the 250 but it is defo too short, Trevanaunce beat masque de sevigne fair and square last year but is 4 times the price of that horse in this, at 28/1 might be worth a sheckle or two. I quite like one for bobby but i don't like the price, if you fancy it i would play/risk the PM.

Well fabre got his two winners and was beaten a nose in another a snidge of profit if you had backed them all at early prices, tiber river is probably better than that (se @Sporting Sam notes) trevenaunce a bit disappointing to me thought it may well get placed but shit happens 🤣

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On 8/19/2023 at 4:38 PM, ivans82 said:

Deauville 1600......Sober 11-4 generally  . The Good Man will probably start fav he shows a good turn of foot , but tomorrows race is over 1m 6f 1100yds on heavy ground and Sober takes forever to get into gear . Just hope M.Guyon makes his move earlier and drags the finish out of the others and doesn`t give first run to something else and finishes too late again .

Thank you Maxime for reading this post    !

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Valiant force a tasty place 

back in fifth.

nearly got the winner but well done to vandeek backers.

sandown 6:45

saratogo gold

crescent lake 

Rhythmic intent

all small win

no point doing these each way. They all have claims in a wide open race.

 

Edited by Sporting Sam
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On 8/19/2023 at 7:09 PM, richard-westwood said:

415 sand 

Get it   8.2  11/2  86 27 

Arecibo   8.0 16/1  66 90 88 

Swayze   7.7  53 30 44 

Difficult race because the fav is coming back after 3 day layoff ....is that too short ???....arecibo has high class figures but ran a bit of a stinker lto but is capable on his day and Swayze isn't out of it but this looks a,step up for him ....I'll try 5pt ew top 2 and hope arecibos stinker was a blip and he bounces back to form 

Both placed ....+10.00

Edited by richard-westwood
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