Non-League Ante-Post 23/24

[Darran]

After making such a huge profit last season from the ante-post bets the pressure is on to try and replicate it. Clearly that will be very tough, but only once have I not made a profit an the ante-post markets so confidence is high that will be the case again this season. 

National League

After one of the most dramatic title battles we will ever see, we will no doubt move back to normality without the Hollywood duo around. Chesterfield no doubt will be glad to see the back of Wrexham and Notts County given they finished a distant 3^rd and only just lost out to County at Wembley in the play-off final. In some ways they really ought to have won that game, but again I felt Paul Cook's tactics left a lot to be desired and they should have pushed harder for a 2^nd goal as they really had County on the ropes. Instead they dropped off and give County enough of the ball and they will punish you in the end. I think the other thing to point out is they ought to have finished 3^rd fairly comfortably, but they dropped some really silly points and only just edged ahead of Woking late on. Will Cook finally have learnt how to play the division? I'm not so sure myself and the way he decided to go to the dressing room whilst the penalty shootout was going on in the final wasn't a good look for me. How are the players expected to cope if the manager can't? He's meant to be the leader and as soon as the going got tough he was nowhere to be seen. They lacked goals at certain times last season and playing Quigley by himself upfront was never going to bring you goals. This season Will Grigg will be the man expected to get the goals and Cook has managed him before so that is a plus, but he's the type of striker who relies on the quality of ball that he gets and if that is lacking then he might not get as many goals as expected. Also it has been a few years since he was prolific in front of goal and whilst clearly down in level will help, it isn't something I like to see. Take Paul Mullin for example he was top scorer in League 2 when Wrexham signed him so he was at his peak. It isn't hard to think that Grigg might be on the way down. Having said all that, I do think they have just about the best squad in the division and I would also make them favourites. 6/1 was available in a couple of places when the league was priced up and that would have appealed e/w because they really ought to be in the top 3 at least, but they are now no bigger than 9/4 and quite frankly that price stinks. I just don't have them anywhere near as far clear as those odds suggest and I am more than happy to look elsewhere. The final point I want to make is that losing play-off finalists have a rotten record the following season. They remind me a lot like Tranmere when they lost the title to Macclesfield because they easily had the best side in the division that season, yet a slow start meant they blew the title and ended up going up via the play-offs. I can easily see them having to rely on the play-off route again to get out of the division.

 

The only other team in single figures are Oldham and again I am concerned about the manager. I was an Everton fan back in the 90s and I remember David Unsworth doing a great job at the back for them, but he didn't always convince me last season when he took over at Oldham. I watched a few of their games towards the back end and whilst they did finish the season well, I wasn't really taken by the performances. They clearly have money to spend though and they have really improved the squad so they really ought to be challenging for the title this time around. Fans are already split on Unsworth so if they do get off to a slow start then I fully expect them to get on his back and we would likely see a change at the top. Stockport proved a couple of seasons ago that a slow start and a change of manager isn't a hindrance to winning the league so whatever happens they really ought to be bang in contention.

 

Rochdale and Hartlepool were the two relegated sides from last season and they are both next in the betting. It has been proven time and time again how hard it is to go back up at the first time of asking and neither side look like they are going to challenge that rule. At the same time I would be surprised if either did a Scunthorpe and went down again, but the both look mid-table to fringe play-off contenders to me.

 

We then get to Woking who really ought to have punished Chesterfield for their slip-ups and finished 3^rd (and land my e/w bet at 66/1 in the process), but I think at their first chance of being properly in play-off contention they were just found wanting late on. I think it was the same in the play-offs themselves as well as they blew a 1-0 lead to lose 2-1 to Bromley. On the plus side last season should have given them plenty of experience of being contenders and I think they will improve this season. I'm a big fan of Darren Sarll and I think he realised he didn't need to do too much to the squad, but what he has done ought to improve them and given they were only just behind Chesterfield last season, I just don't see how one can be 9/4 and the other 14/1.

 

Not that is lasted long, but York were put into 100/1 by BetVictor when prices opened up and the odds compiler is a York fan as well.! Clearly he didn't see the input of money that was about to happen after the takeover by the Uggla family. They had tried to take over at Yeovil last season only for it to fall through. Not surprisingly they have been very well backed at big prices on the back of the signings especially spending 6 figures to buy Tyler Cordner and Dipo Akinyemi. I have a few issues with them though. First of all any value in the price has long gone for me. I'm not really sure I trust Uggla either. Something seemed off to me when he came in at Yeovil and I don't trust him to get things right at York. I'm also not sure they have the right man in place as manager to get the job done either. They have a huge squad at the moment and the Uggla has brought players with him from Yeovil who didn't look great for them this season. They could be a side I might look to back once the season starts depending on how they do, but I suspect they might need a season at least to get things right.

 

AFC Fylde are next in the betting which I find a little surprising. I think Adam Murray came in and did a really good job last season after the mistake of hiring James Rowe and keeping hold of Nick Haughton is a big boost for them. I can see them being possible play-off contenders, but I'd be surprised if they were title contenders.

 

We then come to Barnet and I think they have a massive chance. As much as I think xG stats can be a helpful tool now I also think you have to be very careful how you use them. Barnet on the stats massively over achieved, but I don't think they did at all. I'm a huge fan of Dean Brennan and I just think he got the very best out of his team. He made them very hard to beat and also they were so clinical in taking their chances when they came their way. Losing Ryan De Havilland is clearly a blow, but they have kept Nicke Kabamba and Zak Brunt should be a very good signing. Like Sarll at Woking, I think Brennan knows that he didn't need to do too much to the squad to keep them improving and the signings that he has made have improved the squad in my view. I think they have the potential to be title contenders this season.

 

Southend are next in the betting and they have been allowed to start the season, but I just don't know how anyone can back them given we still don't know if Ron Martin will actually sell the club and then how much money they will have to spend. They still have a transfer embargo against them at the time of writing so chances are they are only going to have a bare squad to start the season. They also have a huge threat of receiving a 10 point deduction if they haven't paid HRMC when they next go to court in just under a month. Amazingly they still have talented players at the club so if they can get things sorted and avoid a point deduction they might become a bet, but they should be double the price they are as things stand.

 

With Stewart Donald going back to Eastleigh they were on my radar when the season ended as a team I would be looking to back for the title this season. They really should have finished in the play-offs, but blew up massively in the final month of the season. Paul McCallum made his name at Eastleigh and he is back after ending up at Chesterfield last season. They need him to be scoring 20+ goals this season if they are to challenge. I was also quite surprised that some of the players who left were solid first teamers and I'm not sure they have made the sort of signings I expected them to make back when the season ended. I'm leaving them for now and will wait and see how they start the season.

 

Luke Garrard continues to do a great job at Boreham Wood, but I just wonder if he is going to be capable of getting them promotion. Fair play he has been very loyal, but I just get the sense that a change could do both manager and club a world of good. No doubt they will be in and around the play-offs again though, but I can't see them turning into title contenders. Bromley did well to get into the play-offs last season and again have a good manager in the shape of Andy Woodman. I'm not sure they look any better than last season though so can't see much progression if any. Dagenham lost a lot of key players over the summer and I'm not sure Strevens has done enough to replace them.

 

Two more sides worth mention for me at big prices. Gateshead ended the season in really good form and Mike Williamson has rightly earned rave reviews. It is a big jump though from where they finished last season to be title contenders and I think they might need another season to build up to that sort of level. It could be argued that Altrincham might need that as well. They really struggled after turning professional at the start of last season, but then some shrewd signings and it all clicked and at their best they looked very good. I think they have the squad to build on that first season as a professional team and for them to be outsiders and as big as 150/1 is just daft. At the very least I think they can finish in the top half and I would have them around the 33-40/1 mark. Therefore they have to be worth a very small punt at 3 figure price.

 

Sadly we don't have any relegation betting again, but I would be all over Solihull if it was available. They have lost their best players, Neil Ardley mysteriously left, but given he hasn't got another job it can only be because they have no money and replacement Andy Whing just strikes me as the cheap option. I expect them to struggle. I would be amazed if Oxford City didn't go down as they look way below the standard needed to survive. 

 

So for the bets. I was toying about including Oldham based on Unsworth, but I do think they are slightly bigger than they should be so I will include them. Woking don't have much to find on Chesterfield at all and for me they are too big a price as I think they can improve again. The main bet though for me is Barnet. I rate Brennan as one of the best managers in the league and I think he has improved his squad again from last season. 22/1 is a crazy price in my view and I personally would have them shorter than a few teams above them in the betting. As mentioned above I will also be having a small, likely value loser, bet on Altrincham at huge odds.

 

National League North

This division is all about Scunthorpe and I honestly thought they wouldn't be far off even money when the prices opened up. I'm amazed that 2/1 is still available and they really should win the league with ease. It took me by surprise the level of player they started buying in May and the squad Jimmy Dean has built is seriously impressive, indeed it is one that would be a play-off contender in the National League in my opinion. I've been told they have a League 1 budget and that doesn't surprise me. I must admit I'm not a big Jimmy Dean fan, but I'd fancy my chances of managing this team to win the title this season they have that much in hand on paper. Also there is the off the field issue of what is going to happen with the ground between the ex owner and the new owner, but I'm not sure that will hinder their progress although they do have a groundshare agreement in place should it be needed. This league looks really weak this season and quite frankly if they don't win the title I'm not sure they will ever get a better chance.

 

Chester drew too many games last season, but clearly they were very hard to beat and it wouldn't surprise me if they were the main rivals to Scunthorpe. I've seen people suggest Hereford are players, but they wouldn't be for me. Their manager says they have a bottom 8 budget and he's also unproven. I'm not sure their squad is anything special. Kings Lynn look weaker than last season to me so I can't see them being title contenders again. No doubt Brackley will be in and around the play-offs as usual, but hard to see this being the season when they finally get automatic promotion and I'm not sure on the choice of manager either. Boston look possible improvers after a tough season last time around and they have place claims. Buxton had a superb 2^nd half of the season and if they can build on that then they can get into the play-offs this time around. I am not expecting my own side Gloucester to repeat their play-off spot this season, indeed I fear we may be in a relegation battle.

 

To be honest I completely understand if you only back Scunthorpe here, but I am going to have a small e/w play on Spennymoor who look over priced at 33/1. They were one of a whole host of sides who were in play-off contention last season and they have signed well over the summer and look to have a better side for the season ahead. A top 3 finish is a strong possibility for me so I will add a small e/w bet on them.

 

National League South

Usually the National League North is stronger than the South and whilst Scunthorpe have the best side at either level, the NLS has way more depth to it this season and looks the strongest it ever has. As boring as it sounds I have to be with the relegated sides again here though in the shape of Torquay and Yeovil. I was really surprised at some of the players that Gary Johnson has been able to keep and they weren't far away from surviving last season. In fact I will go as far to say they really ought to have done. Gary Johnson has won this league with them before and I think he can do so again.

 

Yeovil stunk the place out last season and weren't helped at all from what was happening off the pitch. A takeover has now happened and it looks like the club are finally in a good place again. I'm a bit surprised Mark Cooper has stayed, but clearly he thinks they have a good chance of going back up and he has recruited well as well as keeping some of the better players from last season.

 

Eastbourne have been the movers in the betting after they were taken over during the summer and have now gone full time. I must admit though I haven't been wowed by the signings made so far and they certainly don't look as strong as the two relegated sides on paper so they wouldn't be for me at this stage. Dartford finished a distant 2^nd to Ebbsfleet last season and whilst they are likely play-off contenders I can't have them as a title contender. Farnborough weren't far away from the play-offs last season and they have recruited well so if they sneaked into the top 3 I wouldn't be shocked. I can't have the other relegated side, Maidstone, at all. George Elokobi did a terrible job when he took over as manager last season and whilst they were always likely to go down, I just didn't see anything that would suggest he would be capable of getting them back up. My guess is he won't see the season out. Hampton have got interesting new owners and I can see them improving on what they did last season based on their squad.

 

If Havant went and won the league I would be very frustrated after being on them last season and them seemingly set for at least a top 3 finish, only for them to have a terrible 2023 and not even reach the play-offs. I can't be backing them again. I did back Worthing last season and they scored a huge 92 goals last term, but conceded 72 which stopped them from getting into the top 3. I am going to have a small e/w bet on them again though because I think they can build on that first season at this level and for me they might be the side who can take advantage if the ex League clubs don't deliver. 

 

Isthmian League

Not surprisingly Hornchurch have been put in as favourites and really they would have won the league if the lino at Horsham hadn't given the worst offside in the history of football. Mark Stimson leaving as manager was a big surprise and an even bigger surprise was getting Steve Morison in as manager. He clearly wont have been cheap and they look to have a very strong squad. I'm not sure they are much value at the prices though and I am going to look elsewhere.

 

Hands up, I don't like what Hashtag United stand for at all and I am also not sure their squad is near the required standard for this level either. They look way under priced as 2^nd favs for me. I'm surprised Concord are so short in the betting as well because they were pretty rubbish last season in the league above and I can't see them challenging to go back up.

 

For me the main value is with Billericay and Dulwich. These two battled it out for the title a few years ago when a certain person was in charge at Billericay. Not surprisingly he left them in the mire and they ended up coming back down again. I'm not surprised they didn't make a play-off bid last season as the squad didn't look capable of doing so, but this time around they seem to be really going for it. Getting Gary McCann as manager was a good move and he has made plenty of good signings. I would have them clear 2^nd in the betting just behind Hornchurch so they look a really good e/w price at 8/1. Dulwich should never got relegated last season, but they made a poor choice of manager after sacking Gavin Rose and they conceded way too many goals. Hakan Hayrettin came in too late to keep them up as the squad was way too soft for the battle as they showed on the final day of the season when they lost to Chippenham. He has got rid of the dead wood and recruited really well and given the level of support they have they really ought to be in title contention so again look a good e/w bet.

 

Out of the promoted sides I can see Chatham going well and possibly getting into the play-offs, but at the same price as them I am going to have small e/w bets on a couple of other sides. Cray did really well to reach the play-offs last season and I am a big fan of Neil Smith. He looks to have improved the squad over the summer so I am surprised they are 25/1. I am also going to back Lewes who ended the season in superb form. In their last 20 games only the two promoted sides and Canvey Island won more points than they did and it was a poor start to the season which hindered. They look well placed to build on that strong finish.

 

Southern Premier Central

This doesn't look the strongest of leagues this season and I think Coalville look well placed to finally win promotion. I'm still not sure how they blew the title in the end as they had gained the upper-hand over Tamworth, but I wonder if the Cup runs just caught up with them late on. They look the best side in the division and at 6/1 I am happy to have a solid e/w bet on them as I can't see them finishing out of the top 3 at the very least.

 

Relegated AFC Telford, Kettering and Leamington don't make a huge amount of appeal at this stage, but given how weak the league is they might end up being contenders. Leiston did well last season but have lost all their best players and look way too short. I thought Mickleover could progress from their finish just outside the play-offs, but I want a double figure price so will leave them alone for now. Nuneaton were tempting and promoted Halesowen could go well also, but for now I will just stick with Coalville.

 

Southern Premier South

Walton & Hersham are a pretty short price to win the league especially given they were promoted via the play-offs last season. They have a heavy social media presence which might have something to do with it, but they look to be relying very heavily on last seasons squad and that could be a mistake so I am more than happy to oppose at the prices. Bracknell also look poor 2^nd favs as they lost their best players and look weaker than last season. 

 

The main bet has to be AFC Totton although annoyingly the 66/1 they were put in at has long gone, but that was just a stupid price anyway. They were promoted as champions last season and have got a lot of experience in the side including Scott Rendell. They have signed well and have a decent budget on the back of decent average size crowds. They really strike me as a club on the up and clearly I'm not the only one who thinks so.

 

Chesham are on of the other bets. They are always either near the title race or in it and I think they can be again this season. Having Taskmaster as shirt sponsors isn't going to do any harm either as I suspect they will sell plenty on the back of that. The final bet is Salisbury who have under performed for a few seasons now. The signings over the summer though suggests they are going to give it a good go this time around and I'd fancy them to do better than some of those ahead of them in the betting so look a value bet.

 

National League

Barnet 1pt e/w @ 22/1 with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair 

Oldham 1pt @ 9/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power and Betfair

Woking 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1 with Bet365

Altrincham 0.1pt e/w @ 100/1 with Bet365, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (Skybet are 150/1) 

 

National League North

Scunthorpe 4pts @ 2/1 with Bet365 

Spennymoor 0.5pts e/w @ 33/1 with Skybet, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes

 

National League South

Torquay 2pts @ 4/1 with Bet365 done

Yeovil 1pt @ 5/1 with Bet365, William Hill, Coral and Ladbrokes

Worthing 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with Coral, Betfred and Ladbrokes (Skybet are 18/1)

 

Isthmian Premier

Billericay 1.5pts e/w @ 8/1 with Bet365 and William Hill

Dulwich 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with William Hill 

Lewes 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with Bet365 and William Hill 

Cray 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with Bet365

 

Southern Premier Central

Coalville 2pts e/w @ 6/1 with Bet365 and William Hill

 

Southern Premier South

AFC Totton 1.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with William Hill and Bet365

Chesham 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365 

Salisbury 0.5pts e/w @ 33/1 with William Hill 

NB all prices were taken on Sunday (July 30th morning)

[DynamoDresden]

Hi Darran, 

 

You are really the King of non-league football I must say  I have a question about the Northern Premier League. You did an antepost last year but this year you did not include the Northern and I am just curios why ?

Have a great season !

[Darran]

When I posted this it hadn't been priced up and the price on my selection went quite quickly and I was on holiday at the time so didn't get chance to post anything on here. The pick is Radcliffe e/w though

[yossa6133]

@Darran Any concern about all the ground stuff with Scnuthorpe? Looking at their forum, some seem to think it's all going to go pear shaped fast (court case trying to get them kicked out of their ground tomorrow). CCJ for £1,500 against them this week isn't a good sign.

 

Also, 888Sport have them 7/4 (13/8 general) at the weekend against Curzon, seems a good price given their decent run of form and they should appreciate the decent pitch there.

[Darran]

2 hours ago, yossa6133 said:

@Darran Any concern about all the ground stuff with Scnuthorpe? Looking at their forum, some seem to think it's all going to go pear shaped fast (court case trying to get them kicked out of their ground tomorrow). CCJ for £1,500 against them this week isn't a good sign.

 

Also, 888Sport have them 7/4 (13/8 general) at the weekend against Curzon, seems a good price given their decent run of form and they should appreciate the decent pitch there.

I don't think the ground issue will make a difference although it is a small worry obviously. The players are all on 2 year contracts. I think the fans are probably nervy given what a nightmare time of things they have had in recent years.

[Tommy100]

Is that the same Stewart Donald who filled he's pockets at Sunderland football club

Hartlepool EW for me

I like John Askey has a manager

All the signs are positive

They don't look like a easy team to play against,from there recent results,they don't know when to give in,there attitude seems fantastic to me and they got there team spirit going

All of that can take you a long way

Hopefully

 

[Tommy100]

You got a good looking price on Spennymoor there Darren

Me brother was at Spenny's home game against southport and he said they were at it from minute one

Scored 5 but could of scored more

There intensity was first class

Show the same intensity tommorrow Should hopefully get another win on the board

You mentioned South Shields

A team who matches I go to regularly and even thou Shields won the title last season

The best news was manager Kevin Philips leaving

Why they got rid of Graeme Fenton previous boss,I don't know,he done all the hard work and Philips gets the glory (shields did have the league's biggest buget)

No football this weekend 

I'm off racing

 

[yossa6133]

I cashed out most of my Scnuthorpe bets. The owner has taken to banning people from the ground (a ground you could argue he is squatting in!) for discussing him on a forum. Apparently the club have multiple CCJ's and winding up orders against them. There's also a screen grab of him calling the fans idiots and that he won't put another penny into the club (that's in the Daily Mail so might not be true).

Shame as they have made a decent start to the season on the whole and showed their potential against Scarborough, but it's all looking a bit too dicey for my liking!

[Darran]

I’m holding fire for the moment as I want to wait and see what happens regarding wages paid or not at the end of the month. It’s a very bizarre set of circumstances though.

[yossa6133]

 They just released a statement saying Hilton is withdrawing funding and they are playing their home games at Gainsborough after the Brackley game. The club have no money so I'd imagine paying the players is going to be a major issue unless a buyer is found sharpish.

[Darran]

I have been monitoring the situation at Scunthorpe very closely and as much as I wanted to give the bet every chance I do think with the latest update the best advice now has to be to cash out of our bets. Here is a link to the latest update if you want to read it for yourselves https://t.co/F0BXSDv8lf. The fact the owner is not putting anymore money in worries me given the huge wage bill they have and as much as it mentions they don't want the playing staff to be affected I'm not sure how it can't not be. The fact they are moving to Gainsborough to play their games is going to make this worse as crowd numbers are going to drop massively. I also don't like the mention of bringing in an outside company to run the club as that could mean administrators and if that happens they will be docked 10 points straight away. To be honest it just looks like one huge mess and I just can't be certain they will see out the season let alone win the league anymore. Given we can cash out for a profit I would rather do that now than be worrying what is going to happen especially as it is a 4pt bet. We still have the Spennymoor bet and that looks a huge player at this stage. Apart from Scunthorpe's game against Buxton on Saturday there are no more games until the following Saturday so I will give it some thought about who if anyone I want to add to the bets as there is time to do so. This isn't something I like doing, but I just think it has got to the stage where it is the best thing to do.