yossa6133

5 meetings on Tuesday
315 P: Billesdon Brook 11/4 bet365
Won last time out when she was dropped in class and this doesnt look that much tougher to me. She is very useful on her day and will take all the beating here.
345 P: Tommy Taylor 5/2 bet365
Back to form last time out and a repeat of that effort will be good enough here.
640 B: Kachumba 11/4 betvic
No show last time but may have just needed it, C/D winner and must go close.
 

A lot of 2nds at the moment which is frustrating although at least a couple of them were e/w to get some cash back. The opener at Worcester on Monday features Master Sunrise who of course was a massive gamble when I put him up at Bangor last time going from 25/1 to a SP of 9/2 only for him to unseat at the first. Sadly we aren't getting 25s about him, but he does have Richard Johnson on top and he rode him to victory at Southwell last summer and he was also placed on him over course and distance off a mark of 107. I think it is a big plus he is back on top and although he always comes attached with risks he is worth backing e/w at 15/2. Legal OK is a horse I put up at Fontwell and Earth Leader beat him fair and square although it wasn't helped by the fact he was taken on for the lead, but at the end of the day Earth Leader is a much better horse than he is. However that run still makes him look well handicapped off 88 here. I have just watched back his run at Fontwell last month and you would be worried about the step up in trip, but I wonder if It might help him as he will be going too quick for plenty and get them off the bridle and they might just struggle to peg him back if he gets an easy lead. The one concern I do have is maybe a small field that he could do it to might be more up his street, but I still have to have him onside at 9/2. Moreece is actually the best handicapped based on pointing ratings, but I don't really fancy him. He was well beaten at Ffos Las and the first two home that day haven't done much for the form since. I think the bigger dangers are the two horses who were 1st and 4th at Warwick last time. That was a Class 4 so both are dropping down in grade. The Manuscript won and his jockey takes off the weight he was put up for the win. Strictly speaking Tanrudy shouldn't reverse the form, but he has had a wind op and it might well see him see out the race better.
 
The next race sees Asockastar back in handicap company. He did us a couple of nice turns when winning at Leicester and especially at Fakenham earlier in the year and hopefully he can land the hat-trick for us. Now he isn't chucked in off 125, but if you remember my Stratford preview I said that they had chosen the wrong race for him and they should have run him in the handicap hunter chase as he looked well handicapped off 117. In hindsight he wouldn't have won that because Risk A Fine would have outclassed him and to be fair he ran as well as could have been expected in the big race when 3rd to Wonderful Charm. The handicapper put him up 8lbs for that effort, but crucially his jockey can claim 7lbs so he is essentially back to his old mark. He is dropping down in trip to 2m4f, but that doesn't concern me at all as he has plenty of pace and I think he can cope with that. I also don't think this is a strong race for the grade. Al Shahir is an obvious danger, but he fell last time and has burst before so both those things have to be a concern and as much as he might win he makes the market given his price. Cillian's Well was running well when hampered and unseating at Ffos Las last month, but that wasn't a strong race. Forever My Friend won a hunter chase at Fontwell last year and was then 2nd in the handicap hunter chase at Stratford off 115. He then went back into handicap company, but ran poorly. That Fontwell win was in a bad race although if he is strong in the betting then that has to be respected given his trainer. Having said that I that Asockastar is the better horse and he only has to carry 1lbs more. It is a shame there aren't 8 runners but I am still going to back him e/w at 7/1 because the Skelton horse does concern me.

Just 3 meetings on Sunday
3.35 Ayr Nibras Again 6/5
Trainer Paul Midgley reckons Nibra Again will take some beating here.

Richard Newland has the chance of a double at Market Rasen
3.45 MR: Nikki Steel 9/4
5.25 MR: Jimmy Rabbitte 2/1

Wish I'd seen the 3/1! Took 6/4 last night, shame about the R4

Opening odds of 3-1...Won @ 4-6 [10p R4]?

2 2nds tonight at Stratford and fair to say one of them was more frustrating than the other. E/W money won on Hidden Charmer, but it felt like I got the race spot on and yet still didn't get the jackpot. Suspect they might look for a similar race here next time as he is clearly in form at the moment.
 
Onto Worcester on Wednesday and 3 horses worth backing who were all 2nd last time out. In race 2 I put Border Breaker up as a bet at Hexham last time and he ran really well at a big price to finish 2nd to a clearly much improved Ronava. This extra trip should see a bit of improvement as well and he looks a decent e/w bet to me again with 9/1 the biggest price currently available as he runs here of the same mark as he did at Hexham. I certainly respect the claims of Out For Justice and Bramble Brook, but it could be worth having a small e/w saver on Old Pride as well. I didn't fancy him at Bangor (in the race I put up stablemate Master Sunrise who was a massive gamble) because I have always thought he needed a shorter trip than 3m, but he was only just denied that day and they were miles clear of the rest. As his form figures suggest he is pretty consistent and Alex Edwards claim means he essentially runs off the same mark as he did at Bangor. He's as big as 17/2 with Betfair and Paddy's although the shorter prices elsewhere are acceptable as well. I don't think he's as well handicapped as Border Breaker, but now we know he stays 3m he certainly should run his race.
 
I'm always wary of a horse having its first start for Dr Newland so Brave Helios has to be respected and Poetic Presence has been running well in Irish points so might be capable of better than he was when he last ran under rules, but Skinflint has to be backed after his run behind Midnight Folie at Newton Abbot last week. I was worried about the trip so I'm not worried about the big drop in trip here and we all know how well handicapped Midnight Folie was. Quite why bookies put him in at 13/2 I don't know and not surprisingly that has long gone although as I type 11/2 is available with Paddy's. For me though on paper he should be heading the betting so the shorter prices are fine and we just have to hope the Newland horse isn't a handicap blot.

Job done 

I put up Hidden Charmer as a bet when he ran at Fontwell two starts back and he faded very tamely after leading. That run meant I didn't fancy him much at Newton Abbot last week when he ran in the same race as Ballyknock Cloud. Coming to two out I thought Hidden Charmer was going to win the race, but he blundered and that was his chance over. It is interesting they are running him so soon and not waiting to see if the handicapper dropped him anything for his run. He is dropping slightly in trip and looks on paper like he will get an easy lead at a track that suits front runners. I think the Newton Abbot race was stronger than this as well so at 9/1 it looks worth having a small e/w bet on him. Damut Im Out won well at Bangor and the 2nd has won since although he has been put up 9lbs for that win and it is basically 1st as his jockey claimed 5lbs at Bangor. That looks plenty enough for me. Starlight Court ran better than I thought he would here last time behind a horse who was clearly very well handicapped. I'm not sure there was much depth to that race though. Still the step up in trip looks in his favour and he could be the main danger.   That comes in race 5 and race 6 is the bumper where Durouyn makes his rules debut. I put him up as one of the bets in the Aintree point-to-point bumper, but he was a non-runner. He then went unsold at the sales which was slightly surprising given he looked good winning his point bumper at Hereford. He clocked a time a second faster than the other division and the winner of that carried less weight. Granted that horse ran way below expectations in that Aintree race, but I'd be amazed if that was her true running. Durouyn did it well and looked like he would benefit from the experience as well. Vinnie's Gataway is odds on at the moment and was odds on over course and distance a month ago when a one paced 2nd. The slow pace might not have suited that day, but then chances are this race won't be a strong gallop either and he doesn't look like he should be an odds on shot to me. Nomountainhienough doesn't really look the part on paper, but his trainer has a 31% strike-rate in bumpers and has sent him down from Scotland. He has also only sent 1 horse to Stratford before and that won. Now given the time of year there won't be that many options if a trainer in Scotland wants to run one in the bumper, but even so those stats suggest he has to be a danger. 11/4 about Durouyn looks a fair price to me though and hopefully he can add to the Hereford win.

Thanks DARRAN.
Off to Stratford tomorrow so will have a score on each of these. Part of my plan to visit every racecourse in the UK, really just an excuse for me and a couple of mates to have a day / night out.

No certainties in this sport, but if I was looking for a parlay around Evs, I'd go with
a treble of Wawrinka / Monfils / Edmund   (pays around 10/11) 
 

Very unfortunate with Fateh at Ffos Las last week when he was backed as if he couldn't lose. Obviously not as big as he was last time as the secret is out, but worth backing again in the 3.40 at Cartmel tomorrow in the hope we can get the money back we lost at Ffos Las. It looks a very winnable race with little depth to it and if he runs as they expected to him the last day then he is the most likely winner.

For the first time this season I've been looking at the 2 year old maiden and novice races over the last couple of days ....... basically looking for some big priced EW shots
Typically once raced horses who ran at a top track on debut and are now dropping to a lower level track for their second outing. I think it's pretty well established that horses can improve a lot from first to second run and I like to take on short priced newcomers running against 'class dropping second time outers'........ obviouly I need a nickname for these horses ! .............. ?
One weapon I have in my armoury is that I've tended to keep notes on trainers methods with two year olds ......... whioh trainers have them ready on debut (unlikely to improve as much 2nd time) ...... which trainers runners come on a lot, which trainers send their good ones to particular tracks etc. ....... there do seem to be a lot of new trainers in the last 4 or 5 years since I kept these records so maybe I'll to update my list as the season progresses
Unfortunately I can't find any suitable big priced EW shots on Saturday ...... but her's a few shorter priced ones
1.40 Windsor - Good Earth - 10/1 Paddypower - ran 3rd on debut at Goodwood, winner finished a close up 3rd in the Coventry, 5th has won since. 
3.45 Chester - Upstate New York - 9/4 all round - not really dropping in class from Nottingham to Chester but is the only horse in the race having it's second run and I'm hoping will improve past the favourite (Seldom) who's had two goes and is drawn in the outside lane
5.55 Donc - Little Bird - 7/4 most firms - made debut in a Newmarket novice race, finished 6th. now drops down to a class 5 on an evening card at Donny. 

Into listed class tomorrow [8pm, Naas]
 
Small win bet at 11-4 Ladbrokes

Great to get paid out on Buck Dancing at last. Obviously at Stratford we were on e/w, but I really fancied him at Hexham when he ran his only poor race of the year. We got that back and more though on Monday so that was good.   Onto Tuesday and there are plenty of runners from points and hunter chases running at Newton Abbot.   In the first race I am keen on Ardview Boy. In Ireland he didn't win in 28 starts and he then failed to win his first 4 points for new connections this year. The last of those he slipped up when in front and as 11/10 fav. He finally got his head in front last month when clocking a winning time of 5.26 so clearly the track at Llwyn Ddu is not 3m which is important given the trip here is 2m2f. He followed that up 5 days later winning his restricted and then on Derby Day he won an Intermediate. He is clearly in the form of his life at the moment and connections have found a very winnable race for. Ben Jones keeps the ride from points which is no bad thing as he takes another 7lbs off. The only horse I am really concerned about is Lapford Lad who is clearly in very good form himself and although he has gone up 11lbs since the first win last month the fact he is bang in form in this low grade is more important. Hopefully Ardview Boy can beat him to get the evening off to a good start.   It could be a big night for Ben as in the next race he gets to ride Midnight Foile who of course won last week for us when he was on top. Obviously there are more runners in this race, but it looks another good opportunity and he didn't look to take too much out of himself last week. Skinflint has been pointing this year, but in my view what he has achieved isn't up to what Midnight Foile has done. He fell on his last start when in every chance 2 out and he had won his restricted and intermediate on the two previous starts. I do think he is a danger, but given the times of the races he has won and the fact he won his maiden over 2m4f suggests the trip could be an issue. He does though look in the best form he has been in so far in his short career.   If This Breac can get close to his 3rd at Fontwell last year then he wouldn't be out of this on his first start for Jimmy Frost and the fact his daughter takes over for the first time is a pretty significant jockey switch. His form this season would need improving on, but I think he is worth a small cover bet e/w at 16/1 given he has the form to be competitive in this and he does stay this far.   Ballycahane was a horse I thought had a chance at Cheltenham in the Intermediate Final, but he never got involved. On the back of that and his point run after that he can be passed for me. Like I say it's a race that does have more depth than the Ffos Las one, but given how much I think Midnight Folie has in hand of the handicapper the only thing that can get him beat is if the race comes too soon, but given he had short times between his races in points this year that shouldn't be an issue. A small e/w bet on This Breac is the other play.   Moving onto the 7.55 and I think Robin Des People and Ballyknock Cloud are worth backing. I thought Robin Des People was a little high in the weights when he ran at Bangor, but although he was 6th of 8 he was only beaten 3 and a half lengths so it was a decent enough effort on his first start for the yard. Clearly they thought he wind was an issue as he has had a wind op and the tongue-tie is back on. The win at Stratford last year was a decent effort and he is worth backing. The main bet though is Ballyknock Cloud who has looked very good in a couple of point wins last month (his first win was a walkover). Those two efforts suggest he is in much better form than he was in under rules earlier in the year and late last year. On those handicap chase efforts you wouldn't fancy him at all, but going pointing could well be the key to him and now he's in form he could be about to show what he can do over rules fences. At 8/1 Ballyknock Cloud can still be backed e/w and Robin Des People is 5/1.

Most of those horses couldn’t win a point. Once you get into class 5 company if you have shown ability in points then you will have a big chance. It’s great that people want to rubbish point and hunter chase form because it helps the price. I know it was fav but it really should have been shorter as it’s form was really strong. The 2nd is clearly well handicapped over hurdles as well

Thanks Darran!! They go faster than that in most points which probably wasn't ideal! But always thought he was going to win. 

Keane just left us apparently to return to management, but I can't really see them going for him.
I don't follow Scottish football but Gerrard seems to have started well so he could be a possibility. 

Mondays are seldom the high point of the racing week and today is no different. My preference is to look for successful yards sending out runners with some recent form - any rated 20+ are usually OK.
Chepstow
2.30 Dilmun Destiny 23 (M Stoute)
3.00 Soft Cover 22 (W Haggas)
Windsor
6.40 Revolutionise 22 (R Varian)
7.40 Asian Angel 28 (M Johnston)
8.15 Albert Finney 25 (J Gosden)

Shimla Dawn's race wasn't helped by the fact he was pestered for the lead, but Border Breaker ran well to finish 2nd and the winner has clearly massively improved from his pointing form this season as he was an easy winner again. Bletchley Castle did it well though and his jumping seems to be improving as much as he looked like he wanted to go the other way round. He was given a good ride as well as he allowed Ballina Girl to get on with it in the early stages and then was able to keep enough in reserve to beat a poor bunch. He might be capable of winning again though as he surely can't go up that much for this. 
 
Hopefully what Bletchley Castle did at Southwell on Sunday Buck Dancing can do at Southwell on Monday in the 4.15. Another horse I put up at Stratford as well and he finally showed under rules what he had done in points and ran a cracking 2nd to Earth Leader. For me Earth Leader could easily be a 130 horse although amazingly the BHA handicapper rated his win that night at only 109 (still rated 117 based on the Fontwell win), but that does mean that the handicapper has only put Buck Dancing at 103 for his chase mark and his hurdle mark is still on 98. That to me looks an absolute gift of a handicap mark and he has at least 20lbs in hand. Obviously he has to go and prove it over hurdles, but brush hurdles are a bit like point fences anyway so it could be why they have targeted Southwell. The main worry is he has had a lot of racing this year with 8 runs from the end of February to Stratford last time. As long as it's not 1 run too many I think he will be very hard to beat with For Jim the main danger, who Brian Hughes has chosen to ride over Buck Dancing, but I think he has made the wrong move. 100/30 looks a good price even in a big field.

A couple of races to look at today and although I wouldn't be going overboard about them I think they are a big enough price to have an investment. Bletchley Castle was one of my bets at Stratford and although he didn't make his usual blunder, he couldn't get to the lead after a standing start and a blistering early pace. This (2.00 Southwell) is a really weak contest and I can see him setting such a strong gallop that he could get plenty of these into trouble. Obviously his jumping is a concern as he showed at Huntingdon, but Southwell is an easier jumping test. Ballina Girl is out again quickly after Tuesday's poor effort and she will obviously try and make the running as well. Their is a concern they might cut each others throats, but I think they might just keep going. Maybe the ground was the reason behind Ballina Girl's poor effort on Tuesday and she is obviously going back up in trip. It's interesting she is back out again so quickly so connections must think she is capable of better. I am going to have a very small cover bet on her as she is 18/20-1.
 
In the 4.55 at Hexham Ronava is a short price to back up his Stratford win. He might well do and I was obviously wrong to take him on that day. Shimla Dawn is interesting though. He is probably better going the other way round, but as he showed at Musselburgh if he gets an easy lead he is tough to pass. He also ran well until his stamina ran out at Kelso last time and 2m4f round Hexham looks the ideal test for him. Like Shimla Dawn Border Breaker has also been beaten by Racing Pulse this year in a point when he was 3rd beaten 9L. He then slipped up in a point here before winning a point at Sedgefield last month where he beat two good horses. If he is in the same form here then he should be capable of going well at 16/1.
I have backed all 4 e/w.

After Aintree didn't think i could fluke another win
many thank's to all who run the competitions
and also to?Hayley Turner? without whom i wouldn't have won mind you have been following the girls at Ascot for the last 32 years had to happen sometime hence the fluke 

Pretty sure a star was born today at Newbury called: Logician
Trained by John Gosden I knew he was well regarded but did not think he would on debut beat High Commissioner of whom connections think he is a group horse
But he did and in some style, and will be gobsmacked if this Frankel colt does not go on to greater things

Tonight at Ffos Las Midnight Foile looks chucked in on his pointing form in race 2. He has won his last 5 races by at least 20L and although they haven't always been the most competitive heats in the world this doesn't exactly look a great race and he looks to have 25lbs-30lbs in hand based on pointing form. The concern would be if he drifted and I must admit it is hard to see why he is 11/10 as he should be odds on. Gowell has been backed at big prices, but on pointing and hunter chase form he has no chance of beating Midnight Foile. Silent Steps is also being backed, but he hardly convinces and looks a weak finisher. As long as Midnight Foile shows his pointing form I don't see how he doesn't win this.
 
In the following race Fateh who has run well at Chepstow and Cartmel in hunter chases it does look like this drop in trip will suit him as well and I am surprised the handicapper has only given him a mark of 89 as he probably deserves one around the 100 mark. He travelled well at Chepstow until his stamina ran out and he was up against two decent horses and then Cartmel he again travelled well into the race when his jockey made a strange mid race move. In the end he again didn't quite see it out so as I say this trip should suit and he has been backed already, but I think there is still juice in the price.

King George V Stakes - 5:35pm Ascot
Majestic Dawn didn't look all that impressive last time out but the shorter trip was never going to suit, and it didn't. Also, unseen by everyone, he lost his footing at the start nearly unseating his rider (see images). 
He showed good form in the race prior running on well past the finish line.
The softer ground and longer trip should suit and with Probert back on board, has a jockey who knows the horse well.
EW - 25/1 marathon bet

Can pass on from decent sources these three colts who should be making their debuts soon, and have natural ability
Man Of The Night....trained by Richard Hannon
King's Command...Charlie Appleby
Plymouth Rock..John Quinn