Racing Chat - Monday July 8th

[BillyHills]

5 meetings on Monday

Pretty ordinary stuff as usual, Windsor and Ripon look the best opportunities although the Nap runs at Ayr.
3.00 Ayr: Warning Fire 11/10 bet365

I have a terrible record at Ayr so beware, a few Irish raiders running with a chance.

 

Been looking at how many beaten favourites are running and was surprised to see 22 of them on Monday
I always think if a beaten favourite is made the jolly again it must have been tad unlucky last time??

Here are the ones being made early fav for tomorrow:

215 W: Legal Ok
245 W: Al Shahir
500 A: Dreamseller
850 W: Alnadir
910 R: Morning Duel
 

 

[Darran]

A lot of 2nds at the moment which is frustrating although at least a couple of them were e/w to get some cash back. The opener at Worcester on Monday features Master Sunrise who of course was a massive gamble when I put him up at Bangor last time going from 25/1 to a SP of 9/2 only for him to unseat at the first. Sadly we aren't getting 25s about him, but he does have Richard Johnson on top and he rode him to victory at Southwell last summer and he was also placed on him over course and distance off a mark of 107. I think it is a big plus he is back on top and although he always comes attached with risks he is worth backing e/w at 15/2. Legal OK is a horse I put up at Fontwell and Earth Leader beat him fair and square although it wasn't helped by the fact he was taken on for the lead, but at the end of the day Earth Leader is a much better horse than he is. However that run still makes him look well handicapped off 88 here. I have just watched back his run at Fontwell last month and you would be worried about the step up in trip, but I wonder if It might help him as he will be going too quick for plenty and get them off the bridle and they might just struggle to peg him back if he gets an easy lead. The one concern I do have is maybe a small field that he could do it to might be more up his street, but I still have to have him onside at 9/2. Moreece is actually the best handicapped based on pointing ratings, but I don't really fancy him. He was well beaten at Ffos Las and the first two home that day haven't done much for the form since. I think the bigger dangers are the two horses who were 1st and 4th at Warwick last time. That was a Class 4 so both are dropping down in grade. The Manuscript won and his jockey takes off the weight he was put up for the win. Strictly speaking Tanrudy shouldn't reverse the form, but he has had a wind op and it might well see him see out the race better.

 

The next race sees Asockastar back in handicap company. He did us a couple of nice turns when winning at Leicester and especially at Fakenham earlier in the year and hopefully he can land the hat-trick for us. Now he isn't chucked in off 125, but if you remember my Stratford preview I said that they had chosen the wrong race for him and they should have run him in the handicap hunter chase as he looked well handicapped off 117. In hindsight he wouldn't have won that because Risk A Fine would have outclassed him and to be fair he ran as well as could have been expected in the big race when 3rd to Wonderful Charm. The handicapper put him up 8lbs for that effort, but crucially his jockey can claim 7lbs so he is essentially back to his old mark. He is dropping down in trip to 2m4f, but that doesn't concern me at all as he has plenty of pace and I think he can cope with that. I also don't think this is a strong race for the grade. Al Shahir is an obvious danger, but he fell last time and has burst before so both those things have to be a concern and as much as he might win he makes the market given his price. Cillian's Well was running well when hampered and unseating at Ffos Las last month, but that wasn't a strong race. Forever My Friend won a hunter chase at Fontwell last year and was then 2nd in the handicap hunter chase at Stratford off 115. He then went back into handicap company, but ran poorly. That Fontwell win was in a bad race although if he is strong in the betting then that has to be respected given his trainer. Having said that I that Asockastar is the better horse and he only has to carry 1lbs more. It is a shame there aren't 8 runners but I am still going to back him e/w at 7/1 because the Skelton horse does concern me.

[richard-westwood]

230 ayr 

Hello girl   233

Vallarta    230

These 2 are a few points ahead of the rest....interesting race .....hello girl won a conditions race in what looks a very fast time for this grade so could be a class above but james sullivan has wonnthis race for ruth carr the past 3 years and they team up again with vallarta .....got to play in interesting race 

Hello girl 10pt win 9/2 bet365 

Vallarta 10pt win 7/1 b365 

[Darran]

First 4 home in the opener at Worcester all been running in points or hunter chases this year. Thankfully on the winner although just a shame he wasn't the price he was at Bangor! Still nice to get the horse right as he had been on my radar after his hunter chase runs which weren't all as bad as the form figures suggested.

[yossa6133]

Nice tipping Darran! I definitely chose the wrong day not to follow, big drift on Asockastar too 12/1!

[Darran]

20 minutes ago, yossa6133 said:

Nice tipping Darran! I definitely chose the wrong day not to follow, big drift on Asockastar too 12/1!

If I didn't have BOG I would have gone in again as the more I looked at the race the more I fancied him. Great when it all falls into line like that.