MCLARKE

Great news @StevieDay1983
A warm welcome from me to the new PL staff, LONG LIVE THE LOUNGE!!!
You will find your fellow punters lounge members to be kind, compassionate and lovely but just remember:
 

That is all.
For now.

1-43 DONCASTER CONSTANCIO
Donald McCain has his string in good form and this seven-year-old has maintained his consistency all season. He bumped into an a very unexposed Wild Max at Huntingdon last time and the pair pulled some half a dozen lengths clear of the third placed Rowland Ward. Tom Bellamy takes over in the saddle from Brian Hughes (who rides at Newcastle instead) and has ridden a few winners around here in the past. Constancio is the only course and distance winner in the line-up and he can make the most of that experience.
2-53 DONCASTER BYRON FLYER
Byron Flyer won this race as a five-year-old back in 2016 and returns to attempt to regain his crown. He is certainly well handicapped on the best of his old form now that he is five pounds below his last winning mark. This is a significant drop in grade for the now nine-year-old and a return to genuine good ground will also be in his favour. He ran well in a listed handicap hurdle last time out so is certainly more than capable of making his presence felt here. Ian Williams has his string in decent form and it would come as no surprise if Byron Flyer bounced right back to his best here.
3-00 NEWBURY - LA BAGUE AU ROI
Warren Greatrex’s mare could well be the forgotten horse here. It wasn’t too long ago that she was winning Grade One Novice Chases for fun. She will most definitely have needed her first run of the season where she finished fourth to Amalfi Doug at Perth back in September. She subsequently had wind surgery and was then raised in grade again to contest the Charlie Hall at Wetherby last month. She ran a fair enough race to finish fifth behind the re-opposing Vinndication and Aye Right. She is undefeated in three previous runs at Newbury, so her running style clearly lends itself well to this track and a return here could well rejuvenate her. Richard Johnson has ridden her to numerous wins in the past and it good to see him back on board this afternoon. As a mare she receives plenty of weight from some of her male counterparts, but definitely looks overpriced on the best of her old form. 

Phantasmal couldn't follow up but fieldsman wins 9/1 taken / 11.5 BSP.

Hi fader , thanks for all the work you do ,you have me having a placed horse in the latest table - i think it finished fourth and out of the places cheers

A nice 10/1 treble today for the PL tips !

How boring would that be though

A nice 10/1 treble today for the PL tips !

I'll stick with my trends analysis as this has worked well the past couple of weeks with the winner coming from the shortlist of 3 in each of the 3 races.
The main stats are :-
89 at forecast odds higher than 10/1, all have lost. This reduces the field to 6.
78 have carried 11st or less and only 2 have won. This reduces the field to 3.
23 have carried 11st 6 lbs or more, all have lost. This reduces the field to 2, KILDISART and COPPERHEAD.
Maybe worth an each way punt on these, especially with bookies paying up to 6 places.
If I had to choose I would probably go with COPPERHEAD as it is a 6 year old although the fact it was pulled up last time is a bit off-putting.

Yes, you're right, my 'system' is for the Flat
I have thought about trying to adapt my system for the jumps but haven't been able to get a handle on it ...... I suppose logically handicap hurdles would be the place to start as most horses start their jumps career over hurdles
Might take another look at that !
What I have found is that there is often a big age range over jumps as some horses start off as juvenile hurdlers, others as novices, others in bumpers, others in point to points ...... it might be worth thinking along the lines of 'number of races run in' rather than just age. Concentrate on the runners who haven't run many times regardless of what age they are

My system relates to NH rather than the flat. I think it may relate to the fact that in NH older horses are perhaps more well known and therefore potentially over-bet.
I have found that this system is not very effective in March and April, perhaps the same logic appears here as in your flat example.
I suppose a horse reaches it's peak at a certain age, I think this is 5 on the flat, not sure what it is for hurdlers and jumpers.

0/5 today -5 total -0.35
tomorrow
12.50 weth funambule sivola
2.25 weth so easy way
3.40 ling saucy encore

1220 southwell phantasmal e/w 9-1 bet365
Changing from Newcastle I can see this one improving today didn't look like jockey got it moving early enough and lost for room last race.

A bit of a losing run at the moment for my young handicappers system but that is the downside with a low strike rate system. 
There is a selection in the 3.41 at Taunton, which is a BET365 feature race. 
MEMPHIS BLEEK 12/1

A bit of a losing run at the moment for my young handicappers system but that is the downside with a low strike rate system. 
There is a selection in the 3.41 at Taunton, which is a BET365 feature race. 
MEMPHIS BLEEK 12/1

I was in a dodgy pub in Sheffield when he scored the "hand of God" goal, all hell broke out after the match, running battles with the boys in blue, the folly of youth !

At this sort of strike rate you are likely at some stage to encounter a losing run of about 40 so at £15 you would need a bank of £600. This is based on 1,000 bets.
 

I suppose it depends how widely known it becomes. The one that seems to defy this is horses returning quickly, I think Ralphie's been running his system successfully for about 18 years !

sorry about that you are only a youngster, not an old b****r like me

I image you are an elderly person like myself, all this new technology, got a I phone recently had to take a blood pressure tablet and a lie down, found a use for it though excellent as a weight for keeping the racing pages open

My picks are either system based or watching how horse ran last several races and ones I follow after some misfortune I pick up on in race like that I'm available today value seems to come from that long term. Heavily backed favourites can also be market manipulation false favourites so hard to judge sometimes ?

Won by half a length

Won

Less favoured are probably the better value... Problem with RPR and time form is everyone had that information... Need information not everyone has or looks at for value.

One Trixie so far today
12.30 Lin Plantadream 85/40
1.40 Her Princess Midnight 2/1 (Hopefully no quarter given, ha ha)
2.00 Lin Nelson Gay 2/1
One £1.50 Trixie = £6 poss return of £83.81
One single bet:
2.25 Weth Joke Dancer £1.20 win at 5/1
Total stakes = £7.20
==========================================================================================
Once again I had no winners in my Trixie so a loss of £6.00.  The balance c/fwd is now £607.69 (£800 Bank).  The second tally is at -£16 c/fwd
The singles bet won by a short head so a £6 profit to pay for the Trixie today.  The balance c/fwd on singles is £150.68 (£400 Bank)
Four meetings tomorrow so lots to look at

Back to my young handicappers tomorrow.
Hereford 1.40 NO QUARTER ASKED 9/2 BET365.
5yo, last ran 29 days ago.