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Best Lay Staking Plan?


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I recently got into a system that lays horses (yeah, I know, exciting), and the system has an expected strike rate of 86%, with odds varying between 3.00 and 16.0, and I am wondering what the best approach or staking plan would be for this kind of system. I was thinking of doing either the Lay 1-4 or the 1% daily compounding, my worry would be that during the 1-4 sequence I would lose while in recovery mode things could go south fast, as for the 1% stake landing 2-3 winning horses in a row could kill 4-5 days of work.

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:welcometo PL mate

Not sure we have many layers on here but have a look at the thread regarding staking plans:ok

Staking Plans 

First and foremost thank you. :ok

 

And I will have a look into that thread, I use laying because I am terrible with selecting winners and laying just tickles my fancy because I like having the odds on my side, in this case having 5, 6, 10 horses racing for me.

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On 5/4/2019 at 9:10 AM, Bumpy said:

I recently got into a system that lays horses (yeah, I know, exciting), and the system has an expected strike rate of 86%, with odds varying between 3.00 and 16.0, and I am wondering what the best approach or staking plan would be for this kind of system. I was thinking of doing either the Lay 1-4 or the 1% daily compounding, my worry would be that during the 1-4 sequence I would lose while in recovery mode things could go south fast, as for the 1% stake landing 2-3 winning horses in a row could kill 4-5 days of work.

If I was into laying, I wouldn't even contemplate horses priced in the region of 16.00. It's far better to back at these odds because they regularly win on a daily basis. If you do decide to lay them, expect a few nasty visits  from the devil at some point. By that I mean, randomization - and randomization regularly upsets the formbook.

Actually, I wouldn't lay over 4.00 on horses. That's because the corridor between.4.00 and 16.00 (approx.), in my opinion, favours the backer.

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I would go with level stakes also because one can never know when the rot may set in and then gradually increase as the year's tick by on method or system that has stayed constant with fair profits. I myself do up my stakes on single bets occasionally ew or place mainly if all the factors I use are very high in my favor, and is a good value price maybe around 10 times each year.

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  • 1 year later...

 

Escaping captivity is correct.

Never lay anything at odds as high as 16.00 (its financial suicide). Two winners could wipe out 30+ successful lays, just not worth it.

Here's the plan I use. Lay at no more than 5.00 before SP or in-play, lower odds if you can get them of course!  Then back the same horse for double the odds in-play and halve the stake to reduce your liability to about one point. I have been laying for 14 years and use racing stats/my betting guides to make selections. I make a profit most days.

Here's and example (stakes can be reduced or increased)

Lay first at 5.00 @ £10 either at SP time or in-play (Selecting KEEP bets in play radio button on the Betfair bet slip) if you don't the bet will be cancelled in play!

Once they lay is matched fire the back bet in for double the odds e.g.

Back bet at odds of 10.00 with a stake of £4. 

 

The 4 outcomes...

  1. If the horse loses you win £5.70 and protect your bank
  2. If it wins you lose £4.00 (less than one point) If you'd laid it at a straight 5.00 for £10 and it won you'd lose - £40
  3. Increase the back stake to £5 and you have a risk free bet/trade which will net you £4.75 profit win or lose and protect your bank
  4. If the lay is backed and the horse runs very well and leads all the way, you may not get the back matched and still loose £40. But you have set up a contingency to protect your bank. I see horses matched  late on (for the back bets some days)

 

The reason 90% all layers fail is they ignore this....

LAYING, unlike backing, is all about BANK PROTECTION. That's the golden rule! I have worked with pro gamblers/layers and the only guys who make a long term profit are those who PROTECT their bank on EVERY SINGLE BET THEY MAKE.

Its pure maths. However, for all of this to work you need a rock solid selections method that identifies horse with little chance of winning.

Jon Burgess

blog@false-favourites.co.uk

 

 

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1 hour ago, J.F.Burgess said:

 

Escaping captivity is correct.

Never lay anything at odds as high as 16.00 (its financial suicide). Two winners could wipe out 30+ successful lays, just not worth it.

Here's the plan I use. Lay at no more than 5.00 before SP or in-play, lower odds if you can get them of course!  Then back the same horse for double the odds in-play and halve the stake to reduce your liability to about one point. I have been laying for 14 years and use racing stats/my betting guides to make selections. I make a profit most days.

Here's and example (stakes can be reduced or increased)

Lay first at 5.00 @ £10 either at SP time or in-play (Selecting KEEP bets in play radio button on the Betfair bet slip) if you don't the bet will be cancelled in play!

Once they lay is matched fire the back bet in for double the odds e.g.

Back bet at odds of 10.00 with a stake of £4. 

 

The 4 outcomes...

  1. If the horse loses you win £5.70 and protect your bank
  2. If it wins you lose £4.00 (less than one point) If you'd laid it at a straight 5.00 for £10 and it won you'd lose - £40
  3. Increase the back stake to £5 and you have a risk free bet/trade which will net you £4.75 profit win or lose and protect your bank
  4. If the lay is backed and the horse runs very well and leads all the way, you may not get the back matched and still loose £40. But you have set up a contingency to protect your bank. I see horses matched  late on (for the back bets some days)

 

The reason 90% all layers fail is they ignore this....

LAYING, unlike backing, is all about BANK PROTECTION. That's the golden rule! I have worked with pro gamblers/layers and the only guys who make a long term profit are those who PROTECT their bank on EVERY SINGLE BET THEY MAKE.

Its pure maths. However, for all of this to work you need a rock solid selections method that identifies horse with little chance of winning.

Jon Burgess

blog@false-favourites.co.uk

 

 

Put some selections up on daily racing not enough layers there - I lay Inplay too with some success overall watching race or putting on before hand and thanks for posting. I'd say lay Inplay at 10s is okay if u see the horse isn't right.

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I very rarely lay on the win market, however I have certain criteria for laying at the head of the market for a place(Especially maiden races )where your liability is small and horses are priced purely on reputation, hype etc. 

It's not a system however as everything depends on the makeup of the field. And there are certain jockeys and trainers that invariably will just fail to get their horse placed if it can't win. (no names on a public forum!) which are in my little black book. However it does req patience as waiting is often needed for an appropriate opportunity. 

It is most def not a get rich quick system. 

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5 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

Oh agree btw with flat staking plan at the percentage your on about. Remember a system only lasts usually 5 years I only look back on 5 years data seems to work for me.

I suppose it depends how widely known it becomes. The one that seems to defy this is horses returning quickly, I think Ralphie's been running his system successfully for about 18 years !

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