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RACING CHAT - Thursday 26th November

MCLARKE

By MCLARKE
in At The Races - Racing Forum

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Trotter

Trotter

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

A bit of a losing run at the moment for my young handicappers system but that is the downside with a low strike rate system. 

There is a selection in the 3.41 at Taunton, which is a BET365 feature race. 

MEMPHIS BLEEK 12/1

I have a bit of a system for handicaps in which the first race card filter is 'select the two youngest age groups in the field' so usually 3 and 4 year olds in all aged handicaps, the second filter being 'distance win' then draw ....... I posted a month's worth earlier in the year and managed to finish the month with a small profit after 100 plus selections

However ........that system is for early to mid season when the younger horses are more likely to be less exposed and still improving relative to the older horses ......... and of course they're getting decent weight for age allowances

By this time of year the handicapper has probably got a grip of most 3 and 4 year olds and they've found their level in the handicap and the WFA has disappeared

 

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The Brigadier

The Brigadier

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Wildgarden said:

1220 southwell phantasmal e/w 9-1 bet365

Changing from Newcastle I can see this one improving today didn't look like jockey got it moving early enough and lost for room last race.

Such a specialist track Wildgarden and his only run here back in 2018 was his best RPR - must have a solid chance and just been smashed in the market ? 

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yossa6133

yossa6133

Posted
Posted (edited)

Farne been backed in the 3:03 at Lingfield, apparently opened 16/1 last night now as short as 5/2, but you can still get 4/1 with bet365 so I've just had a small bet.

 

Won well, travelled like a dream, probably didn't find as much as expected but the first 2 were miles clear.

Edited by yossa6133
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DanV89

DanV89

Posted
Posted

1.20 Southwell - Split Down South - 8/1

Should be plenty of pace on here for this hold up performer to aim at. Course form reads 2142 and seems to really relish this fibresand surface. Won off 81 here in Feb this year under todays jockey. Was then 4th off 87 but was beaten by Wasntexpectingthat who at the time was in sparkling form and had won 4 of his last 7 races at the time. The geldings last run here was in March again off 87 when 2nd only beaten 1.5 lengths. Then had a break between March and August, where he has since been running at other AW courses without really threatening to win again. Is back off 81 again here today though so with that and a return to this venue as well as the pace angle he should run well.

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Bathtime For Rupert

Bathtime For Rupert

Posted
Posted

All prices Bet365:

11.50 Southwell - 1pt e/w Esspeegee @ 28/1

Market's saying not today and has to bounce back from a couple of poor efforts but had excuses last time and was too bad to be true at Newcastle when sent off with a favourite's chance the time before. Was previously in decent nick and conditions ought to suit today. Stays this far no problem and was a comfortable winner earlier in the year off a slightly lower mark. Wouldn't be involved at a short price but at 28s can be chanced.

12.20 Southwell - 1pt e/w Wots The Wifi Code @ 17/2

Ran a poor race last time but it was horrible ground and was given a lot to do. This test promises to suit, the long straight should help, stays strongly at the finish and if handling the surface looks a live player at a decent price with a bounce back to form very plausible.

12.41 Taunton - 3pts win Dorking Lad @ 3/1

Short price but I think he wins today. Was keen at Sandown when last seen but still came there cantering and looking the likely winner before fading into a 9 length 3rd in a decent race. If recovered now, this sharper track and better ground looks likely to suit and I think he wins here.

1.11 Taunton - 1pt e/w Vinnie's Getaway @ 9/1

Simply putting a line through last time out. I don't think there were excuses or the trip was an issue going right up to three miles, I just don't think he was on a going day. The fact he was consistent before that outing gives me the impression he can bounce back quickly and on pedigree he looks a sure fire 3 mile horse so worth another go under these conditions at a nice price.

1.50 Southwell - 1pt e/w Groupie @ 20/1

Shaped okay but in need of the run after a year off last time and ending up in midfield here but is right down the weights now and was in good form when seen before the absence, twice finishing strongly over 6f including on a visit here. Should strip fitter now and if not bouncing, looks a big price.

2.33 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Mongol Emperor @ 12/1

Has shown promise under rules after a wide margin point success but needed the run first time out and shaped encouragingly behind a smart type last time. Given his soft ground pedigree and the fact his point win came on deep ground, the surface today can eek out some more with his stamina needing testing further when staying on without threatening when last seen. Looks a live each-way prospect.

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The Equaliser

The Equaliser

Posted
Posted (edited)

One Trixie today for £1 = £4 with a possible return of £114.25

1.11 Taun Nobel Joshua 4/1
1.50 Sou Young John 9/4
2.50 Geography Teacher (£1.50 win at 3/1)

Total multiples £4.00

Total win bets £1.50

= Total stakes £5.50

===============================================================================

The horse I felt most confident about ran a stinker.  Anyway, two winners paid a double of £16.25. Hence the profit was £12.25.  My Multiples balance c/fwd is now £619.94 (Bank £800).  The second multiples tally after the win double is now - £3.75 c/fwd

The singles balance after a £1.50 loss is £149.18 (Bank £400)

Some quality racing at Newbury tomorrow, I will focus on these for my Trixie tomorrow.  Who knows, the better class beasts may out perform my class 6 animals I picked today.  The problem with the higher class animals is that the races tend to be more competitive which means that there are quite often surprise results.

 

Edited by The Equaliser
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MCLARKE

MCLARKE

Posted
  • Author
Posted
3 hours ago, Trotter said:

By this time of year the handicapper has probably got a grip of most 3 and 4 year olds and they've found their level in the handicap and the WFA has disappeared

My system relates to NH rather than the flat. I think it may relate to the fact that in NH older horses are perhaps more well known and therefore potentially over-bet.

I have found that this system is not very effective in March and April, perhaps the same logic appears here as in your flat example.

I suppose a horse reaches it's peak at a certain age, I think this is 5 on the flat, not sure what it is for hurdlers and jumpers.

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Trotter

Trotter

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

My system relates to NH rather than the flat. I think it may relate to the fact that in NH older horses are perhaps more well known and therefore potentially over-bet.

I have found that this system is not very effective in March and April, perhaps the same logic appears here as in your flat example.

I suppose a horse reaches it's peak at a certain age, I think this is 5 on the flat, not sure what it is for hurdlers and jumpers.

Yes, you're right, my 'system' is for the Flat

I have thought about trying to adapt my system for the jumps but haven't been able to get a handle on it ...... I suppose logically handicap hurdles would be the place to start as most horses start their jumps career over hurdles

Might take another look at that !

What I have found is that there is often a big age range over jumps as some horses start off as juvenile hurdlers, others as novices, others in bumpers, others in point to points ...... it might be worth thinking along the lines of 'number of races run in' rather than just age. Concentrate on the runners who haven't run many times regardless of what age they are

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DanV89

DanV89

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, DanV89 said:

1.20 Southwell - Split Down South - 8/1

Should be plenty of pace on here for this hold up performer to aim at. Course form reads 2142 and seems to really relish this fibresand surface. Won off 81 here in Feb this year under todays jockey. Was then 4th off 87 but was beaten by Wasntexpectingthat who at the time was in sparkling form and had won 4 of his last 7 races at the time. The geldings last run here was in March again off 87 when 2nd only beaten 1.5 lengths. Then had a break between March and August, where he has since been running at other AW courses without really threatening to win again. Is back off 81 again here today though so with that and a return to this venue as well as the pace angle he should run well.

4th ran pretty well.

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roger2256

roger2256

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, yossa6133 said:

Farne been backed in the 3:03 at Lingfield, apparently opened 16/1 last night now as short as 5/2, but you can still get 4/1 with bet365 so I've just had a small bet.

 

Won well, travelled like a dream, probably didn't find as much as expected but the first 2 were miles clear.

I backed it last night at 21.39 and @ 6/1 b365   biggest available on oddschecker was 13/2 . 

Dont know when or if  it was 16's 

20201126_200427.jpg

Edited by roger2256
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roger2256

roger2256

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

You can check on odds-checker, it was 16/1 with most bookies, not sure how long it lasted.

Thank you , obviously the stable connections knew she was fit and ready for her first run for them , putting paddy brennan up was probably the clue too. That price was long gone before I was ready to place mine .

Interestingly only 4 from the 20 that ran in that aintree bumper have yet to win 

Edited by roger2256
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