MCLARKE

A welcome winner after a run of 8 losers for a profit of £54 (10p R4). Just crept into profit for the month of £2.
Tomorrow's selection.
WETHERBY 1.15
MIAH GRACE 9/2
BET365 £20 WIN

A welcome winner after a run of 8 losers for a profit of £54 (10p R4). Just crept into profit for the month of £2.
Tomorrow's selection.
WETHERBY 1.15
MIAH GRACE 9/2
BET365 £20 WIN

both Favs won so not much of a return but chipping away at the deficit !
return 35.94, profit 14.94
monthly total - minus 75.68

The first ‘big handicap’ of the season and one with a few very strong trends associated with it, starting with a nod to experience. All of the last 12 winners of this race have had at least two runs at this venue and all but one of those have had at least five chase runs. That’s a massive black mark in the column of ante-post favourite, Saint Sonnet, who would not only become the first five-year-old to win the race since Caid Du Berlais in 2014, but has only had three runs over fences in his life so far. Combine that with the abysmal record of favourites over the past decade (0/10) and this well-fancied, unexposed sort comes out as one of the worst value horses you could think of in terms of ticking the trends boxes.

His yard, however, is without doubt the best source of winners and placed horses in the past decade. Nicholls has not only saddled two of the last eight winners, but he’s also trained a placed horse in four of the last six years that he hasn’t won the race. Saint Sonnet still has to be respected as a result, as does the stable’s other runner, Brelan D’As, who was an agonisingly close second in the race last year. Two other yards have tasted success more than once in recent history, they are Jonjo O’Neill (2013 & 2016) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (2008, 2010 & 2017). The first named saddles Sky Pirate and the latter has Al Dancer representing his local yard this year.

When we consider the age of recent winners it is clear that seven-year-olds come out on top, having been successful in six of the last 12 renewals. No runner aged older than nine has won this since 1975, so the ten-year-old Aso is well up against it on the trends, while the record of five-year-olds is poor, with only one winner since the turn of the millennium. Six-year-olds have won the race four times since 2000, but recently, it’s seven, eight or nine-year-olds who have dominated – 15 of the 20 winners have come from that age band.

The next trend is related to official ratings and the desired bracket is between 139 and 148. This accounts for nine of the last twelve winners, with only Al Ferof, Taquin Du Seuil and Splash Of Ginge having defied this stat, the first two higher and the last named lower. In terms of this year’s field it’s a negative for the top seven horses in racecard order and the bottom three – interestingly, only seven horses fall into this bracket this year: Spiritofthegames, Saint Sonnet, Domaine De L’Isle, Brelan D’As, Kauto Riko, Fidux and Pinson Du Rheu.

Even though the weights can depend on the quality of those entered, it can often play a big part in the outcome of competitive races such as this. Since 2000 only Our Vic, Al Ferof and Taquin Du Seuil have carried more than 11st 3lb to victory, so combined with the likely soft ground, this suggests that all the horses above Spiritofthegames could have that count against them. 

The final factor worthy of mention is the betting and even though favourites aren’t the ones to be with historically, this is not a race in which it is worth taking a punt on one at a really big price. In fact, eight of the last ten winners were sent off at an SP of 14/1 or less with Splash Of Ginge (25/1) the biggest priced winner in the last decade. The likes of Simply the Betts, Mister Fisher, Siruh Du Lac, Al Dancer, Slate House and Spiritofthegames are currently available at odds between five and ten to one.
Shortlist:

BRELAN D’AS – 8/8
Sky Pirate – 7/8
Al Dancer – 6/8

Conclusion

Taking all things into account, only one of the contenders match all eight of the key trends and it’s no surprise that he’s trained by Paul Nicholls, who has a sensational record in this. However, what is the surprise is that it’s not his 4/1 favourite, Saint Sonnet, but his 14/1 chance, BRELAN D’AS. He was an agonisingly close second in the race last year from a 5lb lower mark but even though he’s a bit higher in the weights this year, he’ll actually carry 1lb less in physical weight. This 2m4f trip and the likely soft ground combine to form his ideal conditions and his best efforts have come at this track in big handicaps previously, so there’s no reason why he wouldn’t put in another big run here. He was still going well off this mark in the Caspian Caviar when a bad error three out ended his challenge, so given some solid jumping and the brilliant form of his stable, he could go close.
Sky Pirate misses out on the full house of trends by just one, spookily reminiscent of his racing career, where second place, more often than not, is the order of the day. He often travels sweetly into his races, looking all over the winner, only to find absolutely nothing when push comes to shove – again the case on his latest outing when second at Wetherby behind the well-handicapped Cool Mix – so don’t be surprised to see his jockey motionless turning for home, before getting very animated for a short time with little response from the horse. However, even though we can bash the horse, he’s usually a good jumper, is very consistent and with just 10st 2lb on his back, could certainly place.

With six contenders level on six out of eight trends boxes ticked, we have to make a choice on who is the best of those to complete our shortlist and it’s a close race between Spiritofthegames, who is one of the most consistent handicappers at this level that you will ever see, and Al Dancer, who spent most of his novice season over fences running crackers at Graded level and embarks on his second season chasing with a first run in a handicap over the larger obstacles. While Spiritofthegames is a proven commodity in races like this and often goes well fresh, he was pulled up in this last year, so I’ll go with the potential of Al Dancer, who beat a good horse in Master Tommytucker at newton Abbot over 2m5f, while giving 6lb to that rival, who won in serious style at Huntingdon on Tuesday. On that evidence, a mark of 154 given to Al Dancer could well be lenient and if Nigel Twiston-Davies’ charge can avoid jumping errors, his class should take him a long way with race fitness assured.

Thanks. I must admit I don't normally look at trends like these with such little data but I thought I'd give it a bash. Normally I like to have several hundred winners in my selection criteria before using it live.

I got in to racing many years ago one Saturday when the pubs used to shut between 3 and 5 so for something to pass the time we went in to the bookies. My mate insisted that at every race meeting a favourite wins one of the races so all you need to do is back the favourites at each meeting to make a set amount and once the favourite wins then you stop betting.
So if you wanted to make £10 and the favourite was 2/1 then you bet £5. If it loses then you need to make £15 on the next race so if it was 2/1 you would bet £7.50.
That 1st Saturday we made £40 between us which in those days was a lot of money (I think beer was about 40p a pint).
Even in those days I had quite an analytical mind so I spent an afternoon in the library going through old newspapers and looking at the racing results.
I found one sequence where there were 33 losing favourites in a row and to make my £10 I would have had to bet something like £40 million on the eventual winning favourite !

Interesting stats in this race for the last 7 years includes :-
There have been 60 runners that have carried more than 11 stone and only 1 has won. This reduces the field from 17 to 8.
There have been 48 runners whose last run was over 35 days ago and only 2 won. This reduces the field to 5.
There have been 75 runners that have not won over the course or distance before and only 3 have won. 
This leaves just the 1 horse, COOLE CODY, currently available at 20/1.

I got in to racing many years ago one Saturday when the pubs used to shut between 3 and 5 so for something to pass the time we went in to the bookies. My mate insisted that at every race meeting a favourite wins one of the races so all you need to do is back the favourites at each meeting to make a set amount and once the favourite wins then you stop betting.
So if you wanted to make £10 and the favourite was 2/1 then you bet £5. If it loses then you need to make £15 on the next race so if it was 2/1 you would bet £7.50.
That 1st Saturday we made £40 between us which in those days was a lot of money (I think beer was about 40p a pint).
Even in those days I had quite an analytical mind so I spent an afternoon in the library going through old newspapers and looking at the racing results.
I found one sequence where there were 33 losing favourites in a row and to make my £10 I would have had to bet something like £40 million on the eventual winning favourite !

Interesting stats in this race for the last 7 years includes :-
There have been 60 runners that have carried more than 11 stone and only 1 has won. This reduces the field from 17 to 8.
There have been 48 runners whose last run was over 35 days ago and only 2 won. This reduces the field to 5.
There have been 75 runners that have not won over the course or distance before and only 3 have won. 
This leaves just the 1 horse, COOLE CODY, currently available at 20/1.

I got in to racing many years ago one Saturday when the pubs used to shut between 3 and 5 so for something to pass the time we went in to the bookies. My mate insisted that at every race meeting a favourite wins one of the races so all you need to do is back the favourites at each meeting to make a set amount and once the favourite wins then you stop betting.
So if you wanted to make £10 and the favourite was 2/1 then you bet £5. If it loses then you need to make £15 on the next race so if it was 2/1 you would bet £7.50.
That 1st Saturday we made £40 between us which in those days was a lot of money (I think beer was about 40p a pint).
Even in those days I had quite an analytical mind so I spent an afternoon in the library going through old newspapers and looking at the racing results.
I found one sequence where there were 33 losing favourites in a row and to make my £10 I would have had to bet something like £40 million on the eventual winning favourite !

decent result for short priced selections .. the two biggest priced ones won and they both drifted ! ....... can't ask for more if you're picking shorties !
return 44.69, profit 24.69
this month minus 90.62

The data I use is the basic data that you can find on the PL race-card (form, age, weight etc.)
I have several years worth of data which I have analysed and developed various strategies from. I then download the current day's data and apply the strategies to this to arrive at the day's selections. 

I am always dubious of such statistics. If you just blindly followed the top 2 in the betting you would get about 60% winners so in this context 30% is nothing special.
Strike rate is pretty meaningless, it is the profit figure that is key.
 

It is difficult to quantify value as we will never know the true chance of a horse winning. There are so many variables involved in racing that it is impossible to take account of every one of them.
Some of these variables we don't even have information about. I used to have a profitable system at the greyhounds based on the dog's weight, this probably applies to horses as well but it is information that we do not have.
To me the only way we know that we are getting value is if over the long term we are making a profit.
 

It is difficult to quantify value as we will never know the true chance of a horse winning. There are so many variables involved in racing that it is impossible to take account of every one of them.
Some of these variables we don't even have information about. I used to have a profitable system at the greyhounds based on the dog's weight, this probably applies to horses as well but it is information that we do not have.
To me the only way we know that we are getting value is if over the long term we are making a profit.
 

They are few and far between, over jumps there have been 89 over the last 7 years.
You are right to go for the outsider, although as expected they have only won 26 of them you would have made a profit of 9% by backing them.
It is also profitable to back the lower weighted of the 2.
Having said that the stats are influenced by Duel at Dawn (10/1) beating Blue Rambler (1/16) in 2016.

Good luck, hope you are successful. I must admit I haven't used these ratings as part of my analysis because they are not part of the data that I automatically download.

You're actually better off with the N/R   I've updated that and it will be on next table. 
In future could you do new selections for non-runners as a new post please, mate. Thanks

return 44.69, profit 24.69
this month - minus 75.31

I've had a fair bit of success when the going is heavy by backing those horses that have performed well on this going, you may need to dig deep in to the form book to uncover this.

Yeah I was gonna but betfair was 40 against bookies 33 so I rushed it....then its drifted to 50 !!! With bookies ...I'm gutted but super happy that the  computer is spotting these big prices so its bitter sweet ....note to self ...ew 
....lol

returns 60.00, profit 40.00, this month minus 100.00
not a big win but both horses drifted a bit which was handy ...... and after 13 successive losers any win is welcome !

All prices Bet365:
12.40 Wincanton - 2pts win Keep Moving @ 13/2
Won this race well last year off just 2lbs lower and has had excuses since. Ran okay when shaping as if needing the run at Exeter last time but ought to be a different proposition this afternoon and there's market support suggesting he can land this for the second year running. 
12.55 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Firmament @ 25/1
Backed this one last time over c&d and he went well for a long way on heavy ground and the slightly better conditions today will suit. Enjoys this track and with a slightly more conservative ride looks capable of getting involved here at a big price.
1.00 Aintree - 1pt e/w General Custard @ 10/1
Jumped a bit novicey on chasing debut after a long absence at Wetherby last time but could be a different proposition now with that under his belt. Needs to avoid the dreaded bounce but hopefully he can be ridden handier today as he gets the trip well. Mark looks appealing on novice hurdling form and if attacking his fences today, should hold sound claims.
1.30 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Ostilio @ 13/2
Dakota Gold will find this harder to dominate and I think the all round pace of Ostilio can see him prevail this afternoon. Plenty of form over 7f and a mile but has the speed to lie up with these and I can see him outstaying them late on so long as holding an early pitch. Good chance at the weights and ought to give a good account of himself.
1.35 Aintree - 2pts win Golan Fortune @ 11/2
Market support is there after this one ran a very promising race over a trip shorter than ideal on his reappearance at Cheltenham a couple of weeks back. Has ideal conditions here, is on a winnable mark and ought to go very well indeed.
1.50 Wincanton - 1pt e/w The White Mouse @ 12/1
Very interesting runner for Lucy Wadham as it looks well handicapped on novice form - winning a dual with Oscar Rose which reads well and was in the process of running a big race when clipping heels and coming down in a hot handicap when last seen. That was a while ago now but won its hurdling debut after a break and early market signals are quite promising. 
2.05 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Born With Pride @ 12/1
Still lightly raced and has a big chance on any of her form over this sort of trip. Hasn't finished off her races over further and it may just be that she doesn't stay and these conditions look spot on for her. Won on debut on heavy, ran okay despite having things go wrong in the hot Berlin Tango race at Kempton and ran a solid race over 1m4f behind Wonderful Tonight in France a couple of starts back. 1m2f on soft looks ideal and has a solid chance on ratings if bouncing back.

1255 donc 
Tomfre   312 
Kynren   310
These 2 are a bit clear .....kynren has been quiet for a while but conditions suit today and he usually picks up a race like this .....
Tomfre won a,shade cosily last time so could be more left in tank 
Tomfre 10pt win 5/1 sky 
Kynren 10pt win 9/1 b365 

Aintree 1.35 , Unowhatimeanharry  16/1 won
Wincanton 1.50, Cill Anna 5/1 lost 
Aintree 2.10 , Modus 6/1 Won 
Aintree 2.40, Call Me Lord 3/1 Lost 
Wincanton  3.35, Danny Whizzbang 9/2/ Some Chaos 14/1 lost