Racing Chat - Tuesday 10th November

[Villa Chris]

1.45 Huntington, Rowland Ward 7/1

Beat Thyme White at the back end of last year with that horse going on to show strong  form after and now rated 141. It also got badly hampered when travelling well in a grade 2 earlier this year . Nice price for a horse that has the potential to be better than this mark of 129. 

2.07 Hereford , Garde La Victoire 4/1

Old boy who drops down in grade and has ran well in much stronger races than this earlier on in the year. Has ran well fresh in the past . 
 

Two singles and the double 

Edited November 9, 2020 by Villa Chris

[yossa6133]

1:45 Huntingdon, Namib Dancer (3/1). Competitive race but this one looks a really nice sort and should be well handicapped off 120. Won a penalty kick on his reappearance but did it nicely enough. Still looks awkward at the hurdles so will need to avoid big errors but looks to have a good engine. I'd prefer a bit further and a more galloping track but still backing.

 

Struggling and looked to go wrong and fell 2 out and fatally injured, very sad to see ?

Edited November 10, 2020 by yossa6133

[Darran]

3 hunter chases on the Fairyhouse card tomorrow, but the last of them at 1.30 is one hell of a way to start the hunter chase season. Not only do we have the 1st and 2nd from the Cheltenham Foxhunter making their seasonal return, but we have a very promising 6yo, a promising Gordon Elliott trained runner and that's before I mention Auvergant who was 2nd off 143 in a Killarney National 3 starts back.

First of all I have to mention Aloneamongmillions ran on Sunday in a point as the form isn't mentioned in the press. It was a very impressive performance as well as he beat Staker Wallace who finished 4th at Cheltenham. You would have to think he wont run though so I am working on the basis he wont be running. He clearly is a very interesting horse with the future in mind though.

It Came To Pass put in a hell of a performance to win at Cheltneham and was clearly the best horse on the day winning by 10L. He actually gets 5lbs from Billaway here due to his jockey claiming 5lbs. That was also the 2nd time he had finished in front of Billaway having beaten him at Cork last April. It was interesting to read what Willie Mullins said about Billaway in the Racing Post yesterday as he agreed with me that he lacked the experience needed to win at Cheltenham last season. That run was only his 11th run of his career and there should be more to come from him this season. The big question is how fit either horse will be 1st up given both obviously have one target in March. This race isn't easy either and on testing ground you can't imagine either set of connections will want to bottom out their horse in November. There has been some money for Billaway already and I do prefer him out of the two. Given the yard if the support continues then that would be noteworthy.

Mighty Stowaway was purchased last season by Presenting Percy's owner and was going to be aimed at Cheltenham until it became apparent he wasn't eligible for the race. He then disappointing at Thurles in February. He made his first start for his new yard at the Galway Festival, but disappointed in a handicap. Last month he returned in a point and was hugely impressive beating his former stablemate Rewritetherules by 30L. If he puts that sort of performance here I think he is a player as we know he is fit.

Winged Leader is the progressive 6yo in the line-up. He won his first hunter chase in really good style and his trainer David Christie said after the race that they think a lot of the horse, but have wanted to take small steps at a time with him. Who knows if he would have gone to Aintree or Punchestown with him, but you can be certain the big races will surely be the target this season. He has already run in two points this term and last month he beat Jury Duty, a horse who was sent off 10/1 for the 2019 Grand National. Clearly he is regressing, but even so it was a good effort. We know he handles testing ground and he has fitness on his side.

Auvergnat goes for Bolger and O'Connor, but he was only 3rd in a point last month. Granted it was his first run since the 2019 Galway Plate, but this is no ordinary hunter chase to make his debut in. His stablemate Stand Up And Fight also runs, but he looks a shadow of the horse he promised to be. Granted he won a point on a banks course in March, but that is someway below the required level for this and he didn't show much in a handicap in August. Given Derek chooses Auvergnat he looks to be the second string.

It obviously would be no surprise if the top two in the betting won, but I think there could be value in taking them on with those with proven fitness on their side. Winged Leader looks a very promising horse and has carried on his progression from last season so he is the main bet in the race. You couldn't not be impressed with Mighty Stowaway last time and he could be up to this so I also want him onside.

Winged Leader e/w @ 8/1 with Bet365

Mighty Stowaway e/w @ 10/1 with Betfair

Up to you if you wait for Alonealongmillions to come out or not

[Darran]

The 1.00 at Fairyhouse is a maiden hunters chase and Wrong Direction looks the one to beat. He looked set to win a similar contest at Limerick in December 2018 only to fall 2 out and then a year ago he was beaten a head by It Came To Pass at Cork. That obviously is a strong piece of form and as much as the winner clearly improved from that run to his Cheltenham run that easily sets the standard here. His last run was in a handicap when he finished 2nd at Thurles just before lock down off a mark of 114.

Funnily enough I think his main danger is a stablemate of It Came To Pass in the shape of Super Citizen. He ran in two hunter chases in 2019 finishing 2nd at Tramore in May and then 3rd at Limerick in the same race Winged Leader was 2nd in. He didn't really go on from that in 2 more runs, but clearly he is more than capable of running a big race in a race like this.

Saint Benedict was 5th in that Limerick race, but is shorter in the betting although he has had a recent start when 3rd in a point last month. Black Samurai has only had 2 starts being well beaten by Templebredin 1st up and then winning by 8L in March. Derek was on that day and is on again today. Templebredin has had two starts this season and won the last of them. He was 4th in the Limerick contest last Christmas.

Wrong Direction @ 5/2 with most bookies

Super Citizen @ 13/2 with Bet365

[richard-westwood]

525 Newcastle

Tefnut    255

Vive la difference  254 

Al ozzdi    253 

These 3 are quite bit clear at the top .....I could try and squeeze a couple points profit out at 4/1 13/2 10/1 ...backing all 3 but it's only 5 or 6 points so I'll take the riskier forecast route and hope for a bit of luck 

6x1pt forecasts all three 

[Mindfulness]

7 hours ago, Darran said:

Up to you if you wait for Alonealongmillions to come out or not

It appears he is running as he is priced across many vendors now (currently 7/1 with Bet365)

Do you think I should avoid said race now or back all 3 horses you've mentioned e/w?

[Ratty]

No recommended stakes this season Darran as in seasons past?

 

[Darran]

5 minutes ago, Ratty said:

No recommended stakes this season Darran as in seasons past?

 

The Irish races are separate from the UK ones so I don't put points on them, but I have had 1pt e/w, 0.5pt e/w, 1pt and 0.5pt on them

[Darran]

2 hours ago, Mindfulness said:

It appears he is running as he is priced across many vendors now (currently 7/1 with Bet365)

Do you think I should avoid said race now or back all 3 horses you've mentioned e/w?

He has come out now. I think it is because Irish do their NRs differently, but was told this morning it was definitely coming out. 

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365:

1.07 Hereford - 1pt e/w Alberto's Dream @ 8/1

Fairly consistent type who stays well and handles conditions so looks a live player here off a fair mark. A few of these have bits and pieces to prove in terms of trip, jumping and potentially give in the ground so this one looks solid and ought to go close.

1.37 Hereford - 1pt e/w Numitor @ 9/1

Shaped as if in need of the run when last seen but should be spot on now for this afternoon and looks very fairly handicapped on her novice run at Kempton two starts back. Wasn't beaten that far by some really smart types and with conditions to suit, looks a big price off a handy looking mark.

1.45 Huntingdon - 2pts win Rowland Ward @ 15/2

Really surprised by the price of this one as he looks well handicapped on his victory over a horse who has gone on to win well twice since last season and had an obvious excuse at Cheltenham when last seen in another hot contest. This mark looks lenient on those runs and if fit enough on seasonal reappearance, ought to go very close.

2.45 Huntingdon - 1pt e/w Candy Lou @ 14/1

Has fitness to prove after a break but was a promising 3rd on handicap debut when last seen and can be ridden handier now she confirmed she stays the trip well on that occasion. Was previously running okay in decent novice races she was never going to threaten in but now handicapping under suitable conditions she looks a big price.

3.15 Huntingdon - 1pt e/w Caro Des Flos @ 16/1

Another one that I think is comfortably overpriced today as you can write off its last run when returning from a break over a trip he doesn't stay. Fitness on his side now and wasn't beaten far two runs ago despite the ground being on the soft side for him. Conditions are spot on now, he's down to a good mark and surely will offer more today than he did under less than ideal conditions last time.

3.37 Hereford - 1pt e/w Giga White @ 9/1

Already been money for this one which is a shame as I'd like to be on at bigger prices but I backed it last time and it ran much better than the losing margin suggests. Is a character who can sulk in races but made eyecatching progress down the back straight at Ffos Las last time but couldn't go on in what was a real test over 2m4f on that occasion. Very much shaped like a 2 miler that day and these conditions are spot on. Has had various excuses this season and if on a going day I think can land the spoils here at a decent price.

[yossa6133]

Can get 10/1 Rowland Ward, might have to have a saver on it at that price, still fancy Namib Dancer though!

[The Equaliser]

One Trixie today

2.07 Her Town Parks (STD) 3/1
3.15 Hunt Ragamuffin £2 win at 4/1
3.37 Her Drewmain Legend 7/2

One £1 win trixie = £4 v Poss return of £150.50

Other bets:

1.45 Hunt Constancio (BH) £1.20 5/1
1.45 Hunt Namib Dancer 50p win at 5/2 (ins bet)

4.12 Her To Fly Free £2.08 at 10/3 = £9.01

Total multiples = £4

Total singles bets = £5.78

Total stakes = £9.78

================================================================================================

Trust me not to back the two runners that won for in a double.  I was trying to avoid backing anything less than 7/2 (apart from my wasted insurance bet).

Anyway the singles bets lost £5.78 so the balance c/fwd is now £151.48 (£400 Bank)

With the doubles I was lucky that Drewmain was luckless in the market but won at 13/2.  This returned a double for £30 which produced a £26 profit on the day. What a pity that Ragamuffin lost, I would have been back at around the £800 mark.  Anyway, the balance c/fwd is now £633.69 (£800 bank)

Three over the jumps and one All Weather flat meeting tomorrow in the UK.  I will do some analysis tonight

 

Edited November 10, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[Trotter]

I'm fascinated by these occasional 2 horse races ...... last time I picked the outsider of the two and lost

but I fancy the outsider of the two again today in the race at Huntingdon (12.45)

There's not much between the two...... bet365 prices

Master Tommytucker 4/5
Precious Cargo 11/10

The favourite is 2 lbs higher in ORs and they're running at level weights. The favourite has had a run this season, my selection hasn't

Nicholls v Henderson

Basically I'm going off the favourite's jumping ..... he's fallen in 3 of his 5 chases. Even on his seasonal reappearance over the easy fences at Newton Abbott he managed to hit the 9th, blundered 10th and not fluent 2 out. The fences at Huntingdon are more difficult than Newton Abbott...... they're more on a par with Kempton and he's fallen twice there

My horse did fall on his last outing but that was in a competitive handicap at the Cheltenham Festival where he tired and fell near the finish. I'm also not worried by lack of a recent run as he's won on seasonal debut every campaign so far

Obviously not very sexy picking an 11/10 shot but I'm looking at it as an interesting puzzle !

[yossa6133]

Master Tommytucker is very capable but just always makes one massive error, as shown by all the F's in his form! Made another one at Newton Abbott but managed to stay upright. I'd very much favour him with a clear round though, no bet for me but interesting as you say.

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, Trotter said:

I'm fascinated by these occasional 2 horse races ...... last time I picked the outsider of the two and lost

but I fancy the outsider of the two again today in the race at Huntingdon (12.45)

There's not much between the two...... bet365 prices

Master Tommytucker 4/5
Precious Cargo 11/10

The favourite is 2 lbs higher in ORs and they're running at level weights. The favourite has had a run this season, my selection hasn't

Nicholls v Henderson

Basically I'm going off the favourite's jumping ..... he's fallen in 3 of his 5 chases. Even on his seasonal reappearance over the easy fences at Newton Abbott he managed to hit the 9th, blundered 10th and not fluent 2 out. The fences at Huntingdon are more difficult than Newton Abbott...... they're more on a par with Kempton and he's fallen twice there

My horse did fall on his last outing but that was in a competitive handicap at the Cheltenham Festival where he tired and fell near the finish. I'm also not worried by lack of a recent run as he's won on seasonal debut every campaign so far

Obviously not very sexy picking an 11/10 shot but I'm looking at it as an interesting puzzle !

Lovely to see you posting again Trotter, pity about your selection but always good to hear from you

[Villa Chris]

2 hours ago, yossa6133 said:

Master Tommytucker is very capable but just always makes one massive error, as shown by all the F's in his form! Made another one at Newton Abbott but managed to stay upright. I'd very much favour him with a clear round though, no bet for me but interesting as you say.

I’ve always thought if he stays on his feet he’d be hard to beat. Wasn’t impressed with his  run the other week though. There’s a good chaser in there somewhere , but he’s far too unreliable for me. 

Edited November 10, 2020 by Villa Chris

[MCLARKE]

On 11/10/2020 at 11:51 AM, Trotter said:

I'm fascinated by these occasional 2 horse races ...... last time I picked the outsider of the two and lost

 

They are few and far between, over jumps there have been 89 over the last 7 years.

You are right to go for the outsider, although as expected they have only won 26 of them you would have made a profit of 9% by backing them.

It is also profitable to back the lower weighted of the 2.

Having said that the stats are influenced by Duel at Dawn (10/1) beating Blue Rambler (1/16) in 2016.