LePapo

Agree agree.
 

I took Bolivia DnB just before KO at 2.30 as that's where the value lay.

also they are playing in altitude, it's never easy for teams that are used to play at sea level to go and perform well in bolivia, even if there's messi in the team. i remember years ago they lost 6-1 in bolivia... and to be honest argentina are playing really bad.. they beat chile 1-0 with a dodgy penalty and they ended up wasting time. if they were criticised by the press after losing three finals in a row now it's worse... coach says they are playing some good football but reality tells a different thing. 

Incredible how betting is, I was struggling last week but suddenly that Sock run gave me a massive winner and I'm almost even for this season. 
Forecast for this week is hot at around 27-28 degrees but it's way less hot than it was at Indian Wells.
For this week outrights I fancy Nishikori. He lives in Miami and trains here so he's completely used to these conditions. He has a good record here and he reached the final last year. His quarter is really poor in terms of opposition. Cilic out of form, I don't rate Pouille I think he's massively overrated, Fognini who goes missing sometimes. I think the main problem is in his side of the quarter. Simon and the in-form PCB who trades at 24! Nishikori is at slightly over 2.00 to win his quarter and this seems a bit short to me so I would take him to reach the final. The other quarter of the half doesn't look particularly strong. Nadal Dimitrov Raonic and Sock being possibly his Kei's opponent in the semis but I think Nishikori is just better than them in these conditions. I like his chance to be champion as well. In the top half of the draw the finalist should be someone between Kyrgios Thiem Wawrinka and Federer maybe Goffin. Stan has a terrible record here, RF won Indian Wells last week and he might start feeling fatigue if he goes deep in this tournament. Kyrgios seems the big treat in that half IMO. Thiem and Goffin are good players too but I think Nishikori is better.
Then I also like Dimitrov chances to win his quarter. Nadal Raonic and Sock are the main threats. But the spanish was swept away by Federer last week and hasn't showed anything great since the Aus Open. To be honest Dimitrov was a bit unlucky to lose against Sock last week and Raonic is a big question mark after his injury. Dimitrov is in form this season and I hope this continues in Miami. So to me 5 is a good price for him to reach the semis.
I think Thiem has also a good chance to reach the last 4. His quarter main players are Federer RBA Delpo and Berdych. Just Berdych is on his side of the quarter and he's another player out of form. Thiem had a good tournament in Indian Wells and he was really close to reach the semis  . He has the level he just needs a slight push. Fed doesn't convince here in Miami I think it's the Master where he has the worst record same can be said for Delpo. RBA seems an interesting option to me but he withdrew last week so that gives me some doubts.
Finally in the first quarter this is more speculation. Stan has a dismal record here and tbh you just don't know with Kyrgios. Goffin is having a good year and he reached the semis here last year so I'm happy to back him at 7.50. The Dog does well here in Miami and he trades at 24 I think he's a good chance. Only problem is he's 0-1* down against Jaziri.
For the outrights I'm on
Nishikori to reach the final at 4.30
Nishikori to win the tournament at 7.50
Goffin to win his quarter at 7.50
Thiem to win his quarter at 6.00
Dimitrov to win his quarter at 5.00
Carreno Busta to win his quarter at 24.00
I think that 2.60 on seppi to beat Muller is massive value. Miami conditions definitely don't suit Muller as he has a terrible record here (1-10 , 1-8 in Main draw) and his losses were against really mediocre opposition... His hold+break stats are better than Seppi's but I'd say is because he's taken part in tournaments where conditions are quick which obviously helps his serve. However in Miami the surface is slow for a hard courd and for what I've seen I have the impression rebounds are not too high (correct me if I'm wrong) This might explain why Muller has such a terrible record in Miami. On the other hand, Seppi has a 9-11 record here (7-11 in MD) nothing great but his defeats have come against decent players with the exception of Zeballos in 2010 and his first two appearances. Then head to head between these two stands at 4-1 for Seppi (3-1 on hard) the last match was won by Muller in rotterdam last year. Also Seppi won comfortably in R1 even if it was against Albot, he was solid on serve and with that level it should be enough to keep it to tiebreaks in the worst case. (muller barely breaks his opponents serve)
All in all I think 2.60 is a good price. 
Seppi to beat Muller at 2.60
 
Good luck for this week

Diego Schwartzman to beat David Ferrer at 2.25 with Bet365
Going against former top players like Tomas Berdych and David Ferrer nowadays provides us with good prices and from time to time some good profit. Diego hasn't had any of his better performances in IW as he choked big time against Joao Sousa in third set holding serve only once but he showed he could be something to watch out for in Miami after beating the struggling Karen Khachanov. He's about to face another struggling opponent now and he can win this one also. David being the favourite is mostly about his reputation but he isn't any good anymore. He hasn't beaten anyone inside top 50 this season except a struggling Bernard Tomic in Brisbane. Last season David lost in third round of Miami to Lucas Pouille after beating Taylor Fritz in straights but I don't think he'll beat Diego in straights and if it comes down to three sets it's really hard to see David coming out on top with his physics not being the greatest anymore.

Well the first pole position has been decided and although the result was fairly predictable we did learn a few things going forward.
First of all Mercedes are still the team to beat and Valtteri Bottas will provide enough of a challenge to keep Hamilton on his toes. We all know Lewis just switches off if there is nothing to play for. Bottas is being a little under estimated by the bookies I think.
Ferrari will provide the main opposition from the pack, although i'm not sure if that actually includes Raikkonen at this stage. Sebastian Vettel looks as far in front of him than Hamilton does from Bottas just now. Still a good Vettel set up should give us a decent fight for the title if it stays this way.
Red Bull are disappointingly half a second off the pace and that was confirmed when Ricciardo pushed just too hard and ended up in the barriers, all but ruining his first race of the season. If he can escape a grid penalty he could be a fair bet to make the top 6. Verstappen was very inconsistent and looks booked for fourth/fifth at best this weekend.
Further down the grid I thought Massa did well in the Williams, Lance Stroll is miles away in the other car at the moment. Toro Rosso will be happy with their work so far and should get some decent points from 8th and 9th on the grid. Kyvat is a much better price than Sainz at the minute to make the points so is the value there. Most impressive driver of the others was Romain Grosjean who did a great job in putting his Haas 6th on the grid.
We often get a lot of retirements in the first race of the year so its usually wise to bet on the 'unders' on the finishers market. A safety car is pretty much certain at some stage but is a 1/3 shot with Corals so you wont get rich backing that.
 
Bets 
D.Kvyat 4/5 Points Finish (Bet365)
D.Ricciardo 10/11 Top 6 Finish (W.Hill)
Under 15.5 Finishers 4/6 (Paddy Power/ WHill)
Value Bet - Longshot
V.Bottas EW 10/1 Bet365
 
 

Incredible how betting is, I was struggling last week but suddenly that Sock run gave me a massive winner and I'm almost even for this season. 
Forecast for this week is hot at around 27-28 degrees but it's way less hot than it was at Indian Wells.
For this week outrights I fancy Nishikori. He lives in Miami and trains here so he's completely used to these conditions. He has a good record here and he reached the final last year. His quarter is really poor in terms of opposition. Cilic out of form, I don't rate Pouille I think he's massively overrated, Fognini who goes missing sometimes. I think the main problem is in his side of the quarter. Simon and the in-form PCB who trades at 24! Nishikori is at slightly over 2.00 to win his quarter and this seems a bit short to me so I would take him to reach the final. The other quarter of the half doesn't look particularly strong. Nadal Dimitrov Raonic and Sock being possibly his Kei's opponent in the semis but I think Nishikori is just better than them in these conditions. I like his chance to be champion as well. In the top half of the draw the finalist should be someone between Kyrgios Thiem Wawrinka and Federer maybe Goffin. Stan has a terrible record here, RF won Indian Wells last week and he might start feeling fatigue if he goes deep in this tournament. Kyrgios seems the big treat in that half IMO. Thiem and Goffin are good players too but I think Nishikori is better.
Then I also like Dimitrov chances to win his quarter. Nadal Raonic and Sock are the main threats. But the spanish was swept away by Federer last week and hasn't showed anything great since the Aus Open. To be honest Dimitrov was a bit unlucky to lose against Sock last week and Raonic is a big question mark after his injury. Dimitrov is in form this season and I hope this continues in Miami. So to me 5 is a good price for him to reach the semis.
I think Thiem has also a good chance to reach the last 4. His quarter main players are Federer RBA Delpo and Berdych. Just Berdych is on his side of the quarter and he's another player out of form. Thiem had a good tournament in Indian Wells and he was really close to reach the semis  . He has the level he just needs a slight push. Fed doesn't convince here in Miami I think it's the Master where he has the worst record same can be said for Delpo. RBA seems an interesting option to me but he withdrew last week so that gives me some doubts.
Finally in the first quarter this is more speculation. Stan has a dismal record here and tbh you just don't know with Kyrgios. Goffin is having a good year and he reached the semis here last year so I'm happy to back him at 7.50. The Dog does well here in Miami and he trades at 24 I think he's a good chance. Only problem is he's 0-1* down against Jaziri.
For the outrights I'm on
Nishikori to reach the final at 4.30
Nishikori to win the tournament at 7.50
Goffin to win his quarter at 7.50
Thiem to win his quarter at 6.00
Dimitrov to win his quarter at 5.00
Carreno Busta to win his quarter at 24.00
I think that 2.60 on seppi to beat Muller is massive value. Miami conditions definitely don't suit Muller as he has a terrible record here (1-10 , 1-8 in Main draw) and his losses were against really mediocre opposition... His hold+break stats are better than Seppi's but I'd say is because he's taken part in tournaments where conditions are quick which obviously helps his serve. However in Miami the surface is slow for a hard courd and for what I've seen I have the impression rebounds are not too high (correct me if I'm wrong) This might explain why Muller has such a terrible record in Miami. On the other hand, Seppi has a 9-11 record here (7-11 in MD) nothing great but his defeats have come against decent players with the exception of Zeballos in 2010 and his first two appearances. Then head to head between these two stands at 4-1 for Seppi (3-1 on hard) the last match was won by Muller in rotterdam last year. Also Seppi won comfortably in R1 even if it was against Albot, he was solid on serve and with that level it should be enough to keep it to tiebreaks in the worst case. (muller barely breaks his opponents serve)
All in all I think 2.60 is a good price. 
Seppi to beat Muller at 2.60
 
Good luck for this week

Incredible how betting is, I was struggling last week but suddenly that Sock run gave me a massive winner and I'm almost even for this season. 
Forecast for this week is hot at around 27-28 degrees but it's way less hot than it was at Indian Wells.
For this week outrights I fancy Nishikori. He lives in Miami and trains here so he's completely used to these conditions. He has a good record here and he reached the final last year. His quarter is really poor in terms of opposition. Cilic out of form, I don't rate Pouille I think he's massively overrated, Fognini who goes missing sometimes. I think the main problem is in his side of the quarter. Simon and the in-form PCB who trades at 24! Nishikori is at slightly over 2.00 to win his quarter and this seems a bit short to me so I would take him to reach the final. The other quarter of the half doesn't look particularly strong. Nadal Dimitrov Raonic and Sock being possibly his Kei's opponent in the semis but I think Nishikori is just better than them in these conditions. I like his chance to be champion as well. In the top half of the draw the finalist should be someone between Kyrgios Thiem Wawrinka and Federer maybe Goffin. Stan has a terrible record here, RF won Indian Wells last week and he might start feeling fatigue if he goes deep in this tournament. Kyrgios seems the big treat in that half IMO. Thiem and Goffin are good players too but I think Nishikori is better.
Then I also like Dimitrov chances to win his quarter. Nadal Raonic and Sock are the main threats. But the spanish was swept away by Federer last week and hasn't showed anything great since the Aus Open. To be honest Dimitrov was a bit unlucky to lose against Sock last week and Raonic is a big question mark after his injury. Dimitrov is in form this season and I hope this continues in Miami. So to me 5 is a good price for him to reach the semis.
I think Thiem has also a good chance to reach the last 4. His quarter main players are Federer RBA Delpo and Berdych. Just Berdych is on his side of the quarter and he's another player out of form. Thiem had a good tournament in Indian Wells and he was really close to reach the semis  . He has the level he just needs a slight push. Fed doesn't convince here in Miami I think it's the Master where he has the worst record same can be said for Delpo. RBA seems an interesting option to me but he withdrew last week so that gives me some doubts.
Finally in the first quarter this is more speculation. Stan has a dismal record here and tbh you just don't know with Kyrgios. Goffin is having a good year and he reached the semis here last year so I'm happy to back him at 7.50. The Dog does well here in Miami and he trades at 24 I think he's a good chance. Only problem is he's 0-1* down against Jaziri.
For the outrights I'm on
Nishikori to reach the final at 4.30
Nishikori to win the tournament at 7.50
Goffin to win his quarter at 7.50
Thiem to win his quarter at 6.00
Dimitrov to win his quarter at 5.00
Carreno Busta to win his quarter at 24.00
I think that 2.60 on seppi to beat Muller is massive value. Miami conditions definitely don't suit Muller as he has a terrible record here (1-10 , 1-8 in Main draw) and his losses were against really mediocre opposition... His hold+break stats are better than Seppi's but I'd say is because he's taken part in tournaments where conditions are quick which obviously helps his serve. However in Miami the surface is slow for a hard courd and for what I've seen I have the impression rebounds are not too high (correct me if I'm wrong) This might explain why Muller has such a terrible record in Miami. On the other hand, Seppi has a 9-11 record here (7-11 in MD) nothing great but his defeats have come against decent players with the exception of Zeballos in 2010 and his first two appearances. Then head to head between these two stands at 4-1 for Seppi (3-1 on hard) the last match was won by Muller in rotterdam last year. Also Seppi won comfortably in R1 even if it was against Albot, he was solid on serve and with that level it should be enough to keep it to tiebreaks in the worst case. (muller barely breaks his opponents serve)
All in all I think 2.60 is a good price. 
Seppi to beat Muller at 2.60
 
Good luck for this week

Incredible how betting is, I was struggling last week but suddenly that Sock run gave me a massive winner and I'm almost even for this season. 
Forecast for this week is hot at around 27-28 degrees but it's way less hot than it was at Indian Wells.
For this week outrights I fancy Nishikori. He lives in Miami and trains here so he's completely used to these conditions. He has a good record here and he reached the final last year. His quarter is really poor in terms of opposition. Cilic out of form, I don't rate Pouille I think he's massively overrated, Fognini who goes missing sometimes. I think the main problem is in his side of the quarter. Simon and the in-form PCB who trades at 24! Nishikori is at slightly over 2.00 to win his quarter and this seems a bit short to me so I would take him to reach the final. The other quarter of the half doesn't look particularly strong. Nadal Dimitrov Raonic and Sock being possibly his Kei's opponent in the semis but I think Nishikori is just better than them in these conditions. I like his chance to be champion as well. In the top half of the draw the finalist should be someone between Kyrgios Thiem Wawrinka and Federer maybe Goffin. Stan has a terrible record here, RF won Indian Wells last week and he might start feeling fatigue if he goes deep in this tournament. Kyrgios seems the big treat in that half IMO. Thiem and Goffin are good players too but I think Nishikori is better.
Then I also like Dimitrov chances to win his quarter. Nadal Raonic and Sock are the main threats. But the spanish was swept away by Federer last week and hasn't showed anything great since the Aus Open. To be honest Dimitrov was a bit unlucky to lose against Sock last week and Raonic is a big question mark after his injury. Dimitrov is in form this season and I hope this continues in Miami. So to me 5 is a good price for him to reach the semis.
I think Thiem has also a good chance to reach the last 4. His quarter main players are Federer RBA Delpo and Berdych. Just Berdych is on his side of the quarter and he's another player out of form. Thiem had a good tournament in Indian Wells and he was really close to reach the semis  . He has the level he just needs a slight push. Fed doesn't convince here in Miami I think it's the Master where he has the worst record same can be said for Delpo. RBA seems an interesting option to me but he withdrew last week so that gives me some doubts.
Finally in the first quarter this is more speculation. Stan has a dismal record here and tbh you just don't know with Kyrgios. Goffin is having a good year and he reached the semis here last year so I'm happy to back him at 7.50. The Dog does well here in Miami and he trades at 24 I think he's a good chance. Only problem is he's 0-1* down against Jaziri.
For the outrights I'm on
Nishikori to reach the final at 4.30
Nishikori to win the tournament at 7.50
Goffin to win his quarter at 7.50
Thiem to win his quarter at 6.00
Dimitrov to win his quarter at 5.00
Carreno Busta to win his quarter at 24.00
I think that 2.60 on seppi to beat Muller is massive value. Miami conditions definitely don't suit Muller as he has a terrible record here (1-10 , 1-8 in Main draw) and his losses were against really mediocre opposition... His hold+break stats are better than Seppi's but I'd say is because he's taken part in tournaments where conditions are quick which obviously helps his serve. However in Miami the surface is slow for a hard courd and for what I've seen I have the impression rebounds are not too high (correct me if I'm wrong) This might explain why Muller has such a terrible record in Miami. On the other hand, Seppi has a 9-11 record here (7-11 in MD) nothing great but his defeats have come against decent players with the exception of Zeballos in 2010 and his first two appearances. Then head to head between these two stands at 4-1 for Seppi (3-1 on hard) the last match was won by Muller in rotterdam last year. Also Seppi won comfortably in R1 even if it was against Albot, he was solid on serve and with that level it should be enough to keep it to tiebreaks in the worst case. (muller barely breaks his opponents serve)
All in all I think 2.60 is a good price. 
Seppi to beat Muller at 2.60
 
Good luck for this week

First GP of the season. I fancy Carlos Sainz to finish in the top 10 in this race. He's finished ninth the two times he's run here. Toro Rosso will use a new engine this season, the same as Renault and RB. This is a massive improvement given that last season they used a ferrari from 2015. Odds on him to finish top 10 are around 1.90 in some bookies you can get up to 2.00. I have some doubts about Massa and I can't believe Lance Stroll (WILLIAMS) is odds on to finish top 10 in his first F1 race ever... Then Honda seems to be in a big trouble with an engine that apparently is not working as expected... 
I also like one of RB drivers to be top 3, I have my doubts about Raikonen, I think he's considerably behind the other 5 drivers but curiously bookies price him as fourth favourite to win the race and in some cases as the third. Since he returned to the F1, he's finished in the podium in Australia just once (First in 2013) then he has two seventh places and two retirements. So I don't have too much confidence on him prior to this race. That's why I think RD drivers have a good chance to finish in the podium. Both are priced at around 2.90 which I think is good value. Question is to know which driver to choose. Only thing that worries me a bit is that engineers say the car has some reliability issues but according to them it's nothing important.
I'll wait tomorrow's practices but I think my main bet will be "Sainz to finish in the top 10/Sainz to score points" at 1.90

Cracking write-up @LePapo
I think its mainly going to be about reliability in the first couple of races. Whatever has gone by in testing or practice you can be sure Mercedes will turn up on the day and will be hard to beat.
Bottas is the key here for the podium places, if he fits straight in he will obviously be close to Hamilton, i dont think we should under estimate his ability and that could leave just one spot up for garbs between Vettel, Ricciardo and Verstappen.
Qualifying will be most interesting.
Good luck with Sainz, he should go well
Pole Position Betting

New season, just hope all rumours about ferrari's engine improvement are true because if not it'll be again another boring season with Mercedes winning the constructor championship and Hamilton the drivers championship. Bottas is now part of Mercedes and I'm curious to see how he does in a top team. Then all of Ferrari's hopes are on Vettel. Raikkonen had a good start of the season last year but his second half was bad, it was really mediocre and he ended up finishing 6 in the championship.... Given there are 3 teams who are arguably much better than the rest, I wouldn't say sixth place is something to be proud of... Now with 37 years old I think his times as F1 driver are reaching its end. 
This season I have expectations on Toro Rosso. They will use the same engine as Red Bull and Renault and not anymore the one they used the last year (a ferrari engine from 2015) They have good drivers and I think they will improve this year with all the modifications. I think Sainz has a good chance of finishing in the top 10 this season. 
 

First GP of the season. I fancy Carlos Sainz to finish in the top 10 in this race. He's finished ninth the two times he's run here. Toro Rosso will use a new engine this season, the same as Renault and RB. This is a massive improvement given that last season they used a ferrari from 2015. Odds on him to finish top 10 are around 1.90 in some bookies you can get up to 2.00. I have some doubts about Massa and I can't believe Lance Stroll (WILLIAMS) is odds on to finish top 10 in his first F1 race ever... Then Honda seems to be in a big trouble with an engine that apparently is not working as expected... 
I also like one of RB drivers to be top 3, I have my doubts about Raikonen, I think he's considerably behind the other 5 drivers but curiously bookies price him as fourth favourite to win the race and in some cases as the third. Since he returned to the F1, he's finished in the podium in Australia just once (First in 2013) then he has two seventh places and two retirements. So I don't have too much confidence on him prior to this race. That's why I think RD drivers have a good chance to finish in the podium. Both are priced at around 2.90 which I think is good value. Question is to know which driver to choose. Only thing that worries me a bit is that engineers say the car has some reliability issues but according to them it's nothing important.
I'll wait tomorrow's practices but I think my main bet will be "Sainz to finish in the top 10/Sainz to score points" at 1.90

This are the kind of matchdays that are difficult to analyse. Last matches were played back in November and in 5 months a lot can change. Brazil who were struggling in March last year, changed their coach and are currently on a 6 match winning streak, Argentina was struggling in the last matches but they beat Colombia at home 3-0. Peru in August had absolutely no chance to qualify to the WC but some luck and a massive win away against Paraguay have given them a minuscule chance to go to Russia. The table is quite tight in the middle; just 6 points between the third and the eight so if some teams (Peru Paraguay) don't get the results they need in these two matches they will probably be saying goodbye to Russia. Brazil is virtually qualified to the WC given that 27 points would have been enough to qualify directly in the past quaifiers and they still have 6 matches to play... The same could be said for Uruguay, 23 points 6 games to play and 3 of them against Peru Bolivia and Venezuela... just a disaster would eliminate them...
Regardind this round,
Colombia-Bolivia
Colombia should beat Bolivia with relatively ease, Bolivia have been terrible during the qualifiers winning just 3 matches and one of them was given as a 3-0 defeat afterwards because they fielded a player that wasn't allowed to play!!!!!! So things are definitely not going well for them, also their record away is a disgrace. Losing 5 and drawing 1, a match they would lose as they field the same player... Bolivia have just scored 1 goal away in 6 matches and have conceded 16 goals (not counting those 3 against Chile) On the other hand Colombia have just won 5 of the last 15 points and that have made them lose some ground in the race to russia. They have to win this match in order to regain the 4-5 place. The match will be played in Baranquilla where it's extremely hot and humid and they always schedule their matches between 15-17 local time when the sun is stronger. It seems Falcao will miss these matches but Colombia have a strong team and when they're in the mood they play good football. Also their goal difference stands at 0 and in case of tie, it's the GD that determines who goes ahead.
I think the more sensible bet in this match is Colombia -2. Odds are around 1.85 but I still think there's some value, if they confirm Falcao is out, odds might drift a bit. A riskier option is Columbia -2.5 at around 2.30.
Paraguay-Ecuador 
I have little to say here, this is a win or die match for Paraguay. If they lose or draw they are virtually out. I don't fancy Ecuador when they play away and I have some doubts about Paraguay, 1 match won and 4 defeats in the last 5 doesn't give me confindence.
Uruguay-Brazil
The match of the round to me. The first and second will face each other. Brazil have reborn under Tite, they have won all their matches and they play good football. Uruguay have a flawless record at home and quality players like Cavani Suarez Godin. I like odds here because bookmakers have made Brazil favourites for this match. I just don't think they're. Uruguay is one of the best in South America, excellent players who always give everything in the matches. Now they are playing at home and to me this is an important factor. Given that bookies offer more than 2.00 on Uruguay DNB, I'll happily back it. A riskier option is to go on Uruguay to win at over 3. 
EDIT: suárez is suspended for this match, i had totally forgotten. this changes things, i might sit out of this match in terms of betting.
Argentina-Chili
Not much to say here, Argentina might have the best player in the world and some unreal strikers but they just don't give me confidence. They have lost against Ecuador and Paraguay at home....Chile won't have Vidal and Diaz so their midfield is weakened. It seems also that Alexis is having fitness issues... I don't think Chile can win but I'm not sure if Argentina can win this... If I have to pick a team, I'd side with Argentina but odds of 1.5 offer no value at all to me.
Venezuela-PeruAnother team with a win or die match. Peru is forced to win this match if they don't want to say goodbye to Russia. They have a terrible record away winning just one match since 2004. Last year they beat Paraguay away 4-1 playing a fantastic match, true is Peru have a decent team. Despite some shocking results in the qualifiers, they have managed to finish third in two of the last three Copa America and in the last one they were eliminated after a penalty shootout. This Peru team is mainly composed by young players that have some quality but they lack one big player that can turn things around. Regarding Venezuela, they showed an improvement lately, drawing at home against Argentina and obliterating Bolivia 5-0. They have 5 points so the only thing they fight for is to avoid being the last. To me it depends on what Peru turn up, if it's the same that faced Bolivia Uruguay and Chile first half, I think this will be an easy win for Venezuela if it's the same that played Paraguay current odds on Peru represent some value, I see this as an even match so if I had to pick a side it would be Peru.
If nothing big happens my main pick pick should be:
2 units on Colombia -2.5 at 2.30 (i'm still thinking bout this, would have prefered -2 but my bookie doesn't offer that option)
Good luck to you all

This are the kind of matchdays that are difficult to analyse. Last matches were played back in November and in 5 months a lot can change. Brazil who were struggling in March last year, changed their coach and are currently on a 6 match winning streak, Argentina was struggling in the last matches but they beat Colombia at home 3-0. Peru in August had absolutely no chance to qualify to the WC but some luck and a massive win away against Paraguay have given them a minuscule chance to go to Russia. The table is quite tight in the middle; just 6 points between the third and the eight so if some teams (Peru Paraguay) don't get the results they need in these two matches they will probably be saying goodbye to Russia. Brazil is virtually qualified to the WC given that 27 points would have been enough to qualify directly in the past quaifiers and they still have 6 matches to play... The same could be said for Uruguay, 23 points 6 games to play and 3 of them against Peru Bolivia and Venezuela... just a disaster would eliminate them...
Regardind this round,
Colombia-Bolivia
Colombia should beat Bolivia with relatively ease, Bolivia have been terrible during the qualifiers winning just 3 matches and one of them was given as a 3-0 defeat afterwards because they fielded a player that wasn't allowed to play!!!!!! So things are definitely not going well for them, also their record away is a disgrace. Losing 5 and drawing 1, a match they would lose as they field the same player... Bolivia have just scored 1 goal away in 6 matches and have conceded 16 goals (not counting those 3 against Chile) On the other hand Colombia have just won 5 of the last 15 points and that have made them lose some ground in the race to russia. They have to win this match in order to regain the 4-5 place. The match will be played in Baranquilla where it's extremely hot and humid and they always schedule their matches between 15-17 local time when the sun is stronger. It seems Falcao will miss these matches but Colombia have a strong team and when they're in the mood they play good football. Also their goal difference stands at 0 and in case of tie, it's the GD that determines who goes ahead.
I think the more sensible bet in this match is Colombia -2. Odds are around 1.85 but I still think there's some value, if they confirm Falcao is out, odds might drift a bit. A riskier option is Columbia -2.5 at around 2.30.
Paraguay-Ecuador 
I have little to say here, this is a win or die match for Paraguay. If they lose or draw they are virtually out. I don't fancy Ecuador when they play away and I have some doubts about Paraguay, 1 match won and 4 defeats in the last 5 doesn't give me confindence.
Uruguay-Brazil
The match of the round to me. The first and second will face each other. Brazil have reborn under Tite, they have won all their matches and they play good football. Uruguay have a flawless record at home and quality players like Cavani Suarez Godin. I like odds here because bookmakers have made Brazil favourites for this match. I just don't think they're. Uruguay is one of the best in South America, excellent players who always give everything in the matches. Now they are playing at home and to me this is an important factor. Given that bookies offer more than 2.00 on Uruguay DNB, I'll happily back it. A riskier option is to go on Uruguay to win at over 3. 
EDIT: suárez is suspended for this match, i had totally forgotten. this changes things, i might sit out of this match in terms of betting.
Argentina-Chili
Not much to say here, Argentina might have the best player in the world and some unreal strikers but they just don't give me confidence. They have lost against Ecuador and Paraguay at home....Chile won't have Vidal and Diaz so their midfield is weakened. It seems also that Alexis is having fitness issues... I don't think Chile can win but I'm not sure if Argentina can win this... If I have to pick a team, I'd side with Argentina but odds of 1.5 offer no value at all to me.
Venezuela-PeruAnother team with a win or die match. Peru is forced to win this match if they don't want to say goodbye to Russia. They have a terrible record away winning just one match since 2004. Last year they beat Paraguay away 4-1 playing a fantastic match, true is Peru have a decent team. Despite some shocking results in the qualifiers, they have managed to finish third in two of the last three Copa America and in the last one they were eliminated after a penalty shootout. This Peru team is mainly composed by young players that have some quality but they lack one big player that can turn things around. Regarding Venezuela, they showed an improvement lately, drawing at home against Argentina and obliterating Bolivia 5-0. They have 5 points so the only thing they fight for is to avoid being the last. To me it depends on what Peru turn up, if it's the same that faced Bolivia Uruguay and Chile first half, I think this will be an easy win for Venezuela if it's the same that played Paraguay current odds on Peru represent some value, I see this as an even match so if I had to pick a side it would be Peru.
If nothing big happens my main pick pick should be:
2 units on Colombia -2.5 at 2.30 (i'm still thinking bout this, would have prefered -2 but my bookie doesn't offer that option)
Good luck to you all

Monaco will find it easier to score goals v Dortmund than City. I'll take Moncao to qualify at 2.50 right now.

I am having a great year in terms of tennis betting so farand you guys are the main reason for that. The AO started awfully with 1 out of 6, but after that I had one of my best runs ever with 12/13. ROI this year is 13,89%. Normally I have more profit when betting on the womens, but this year my ROI on women's tennis is negative and I am doing really fine on men's tennis and that is, I think, because everyone can beat each other nowadays. Despite of this, football betting is not going well so far
Mladenovic @3,49
Two players who have a fantastic year so far, but I don't get why a player (Mladenovic) who has a 14-4 record so far can be such an underdog, despite the H2H.

yes mónaco wasnt there until sane's goal but a city reaction was expected, they were playing terrible in the first half and they had to attack in the second to stay in the competition and they have quality players. also i had the impression mónacos plan was to defend the 2-0 rather than search the 3-0. city took advantage of this and they started attacking, they scored and mónaco seemed to be ready for another frenchoke. at the end they managed to score and hold the result and i'm happy as they play such beautiful football and i think they have good chances of going deep in this tournament. personally i'm on them to reach the final so hope they don't draw bayern or juve in the next round.

as czech mentioned, i also find this year a bit difficult in terms of betting. i'm personally on around -20 units on tennis. not the best deciding set record this season for my bets...
for tomorrow my bookie offers 2.10 on PCB to win and i'll be on that, massive value imo,  not writing a preview as i usually do as my confidence is a bit gone these days. i saw four leaf followed me on schwartz man. sorry mate, seemed to be an easy winner after the first set ...
as i wrote earlier this week im on sock to reach the semis , he'll face kei for a place in the last four. has anyone seen kei this week? i'd appreciate if someone can write some info about him, haven't had much time to watch the games this week...
isner never had a chance against monfils, and tsonga lost to the fog!!! so no luck for my other outrights
ps: don't know if it's my impression but it seems that more people are writing their previews and thoughts here!

as czech mentioned, i also find this year a bit difficult in terms of betting. i'm personally on around -20 units on tennis. not the best deciding set record this season for my bets...
for tomorrow my bookie offers 2.10 on PCB to win and i'll be on that, massive value imo,  not writing a preview as i usually do as my confidence is a bit gone these days. i saw four leaf followed me on schwartz man. sorry mate, seemed to be an easy winner after the first set ...
as i wrote earlier this week im on sock to reach the semis , he'll face kei for a place in the last four. has anyone seen kei this week? i'd appreciate if someone can write some info about him, haven't had much time to watch the games this week...
isner never had a chance against monfils, and tsonga lost to the fog!!! so no luck for my other outrights
ps: don't know if it's my impression but it seems that more people are writing their previews and thoughts here!

Wanted to write a longer post at some point, so here we go, feel free to skip if you care about tips only .
We're somewhere at the end of the first quarter of the season/start of the second one and I think it's been a fairly tough going for most punters really. Certainly not all, as we're seeing on this forum, and I myself am sitting somewhere in a very tiny plus at the moment, which is probably good given the big pre-AO slump, but also bad given that I had a tremendous run a few weeks a go.
Anyway, what I think is that we're now really going through some sort of a transition period, with many of the big names slowly falling away. Djokovic isn't a beast anymore, Nadal is beatable even by the likes of Querrey, Berdych and Isner have dipped big time, etc. Meanwhile, the new big names like Thiem, Zverev, etc. are yet to become very consistent. This is exciting on one hand, but it also muddies the waters big time in terms of betting, so one has to adapt somewhat. I'm certainly going to hunt for more value in the long shots department from now one if the opportunities arise, perhaps more Challengers as well. I wish there was some sort of a silver bullet, but there isn't - more research and more tough work awaits everyone who wants to bet on tennis now I'm afraid.
The one thing, for example, that I have strong feelings about now is that short-odds accumulators aren't viable in the current climate. When you have guys like Cilic and Berdych losing from massive leads nearly every single day, it's not "investing" (as some are calling short-odds betting), but walking through a minefield. In fact, perhaps the opposite could be a much better approach, throwing two underdogs together for nice returns, although that's obviously nothing for the faint of heart.
Am I just rambling or does anyone else have similar thoughts about the current tennis "climate"? Who do you think the next strong-but-not-best layer could be - I'm talking the next Berdychs/Isners/Tsongas? Personally, I'm thinking Pouille, Kyrgios, Nishioka, Goffin, Sock, with Zverev and Thiem perhaps rising above them.

2.75 on Sock to beat Dimtirov,looks value to me for today.Dimitrov was lucky to beat Youzhny last round.That win was all about the veteran being...a veteran.The Russian felt totally apart in the 2nd set because of the heat.Dimitrov already stated that it is impossible for him to stay focused and even to think clearly due to the high temperature.Sock was feeling awkward too in his previous match but somehow managed to hold his serve and won it.Indian Wells is a competition which is new for the Bulgarian and he doesn't have a good record there at all.I think that this is another game where chances are equal and odds of well above evs for Sock,screams value to me.I am sure that if Youzhny was able to win the 2nd set,he would've won the decider and Grigor would be the one who would be falling apart.I am on Sock.

Thanks Czech, had totally forgotten Nishikori tends to struggle in these hot conditions maybe thats why his record here is not the greatest. My bookie offers just 2.40 on him to win so no value to me even if he's got an easy draw IMO. I'll wait the update with the qualifiers but if nothing changes I'll be on Sock(17), Tsonga(5), Isner(30) and maybe Thiem with the intention to lay both americans if they go deep.
Regarding first round matches, my only play will be Schwartzman to beat Sousa. This is on hard yes, but really slow and hot conditions. Stats on hard in the last 52 weeks favour Schwartzman slightly as he holds his serve 75.6% and breaks 28.7% which makes a total of 104.3 while Sousa holds 74.6% and breaks 24.9% making a total of 99.5. Purely based on this, its the argentinian who should have an edge in this match. Sousa's main hard court results have come in indoors tournaments. He's reached the final in 5 hard court tournaments and 4 of them were indoors where conditions are way quicker than those in Indian Wells. Sousa record in Indian Wells stands at 1-4, with defeats against Delbonis, Gulbis, Dodig and Munoz de la Nava. Also I found interesting that he's a career record of 6-16 against players under 5'10.... IMO Schwartzman should start this match as favourite so given he's an underdog I'll be backing him to beat Sousa
3 units on Sch.. to beat Sousa at 2.00

Thanks Czech, had totally forgotten Nishikori tends to struggle in these hot conditions maybe thats why his record here is not the greatest. My bookie offers just 2.40 on him to win so no value to me even if he's got an easy draw IMO. I'll wait the update with the qualifiers but if nothing changes I'll be on Sock(17), Tsonga(5), Isner(30) and maybe Thiem with the intention to lay both americans if they go deep.
Regarding first round matches, my only play will be Schwartzman to beat Sousa. This is on hard yes, but really slow and hot conditions. Stats on hard in the last 52 weeks favour Schwartzman slightly as he holds his serve 75.6% and breaks 28.7% which makes a total of 104.3 while Sousa holds 74.6% and breaks 24.9% making a total of 99.5. Purely based on this, its the argentinian who should have an edge in this match. Sousa's main hard court results have come in indoors tournaments. He's reached the final in 5 hard court tournaments and 4 of them were indoors where conditions are way quicker than those in Indian Wells. Sousa record in Indian Wells stands at 1-4, with defeats against Delbonis, Gulbis, Dodig and Munoz de la Nava. Also I found interesting that he's a career record of 6-16 against players under 5'10.... IMO Schwartzman should start this match as favourite so given he's an underdog I'll be backing him to beat Sousa
3 units on Sch.. to beat Sousa at 2.00