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March 20 - March 26

CzechPunter
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four-leaf

four-leaf

Posted
Posted

Ahead of the qualies in about 60min

Marius Copil to beat Reilly Opelka at 1.74 with Pinnaclesports

Two big servers where one is in form and one out of form. Marius is the one in quite a good form and it's hard to go against him with out of form Reilly on the other side. Doesn't matter that Reilly has home advantage, I have to go for Marius anyway.

Ernesto Escobedo to beat (-1.5) Denis Kudla at 2.05 with Pinnaclesports

Head to head reads Ernesto has one win against Denis in straight sets 6-4 6-4 as he won in a challenger final in Monterrey on hardcourt last season. Ernesto can defenitely cover this handicap again.

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CzechPunter

CzechPunter

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Too bad there aren't any streams. I really would've liked to see how Hibino is performing poorly against someone as choky as Abanda. And I would've also liked to see Kecmanovic - Laaksonen, shocking scoreline but the Serb is a talented lad apparently. Yet to see him play though.

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tomagio

tomagio

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Posted
45 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Too bad there aren't any streams. I really would've liked to see how Hibino is performing poorly against someone as choky as Abanda. And I would've also liked to see Kecmanovic - Laaksonen, shocking scoreline but the Serb is a talented lad apparently. Yet to see him play though.

He was junior world no.1. Watch him. Today I didn't saw that he played which pissed me. 

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DrO

DrO

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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Too bad there aren't any streams. I really would've liked to see how Hibino is performing poorly against someone as choky as Abanda. And I would've also liked to see Kecmanovic - Laaksonen, shocking scoreline but the Serb is a talented lad apparently. Yet to see him play though.

Kecman probably took advantage of playing in conditions that suit him. He resides in Florida,he's almost constantly there,living and training. Nevertheless - quite a surprising result for me as well. 

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liquidglass

liquidglass

Posted
Posted

HMB VS LESYA TSURENKO

We move into the second premier mandatory tournament of the year and again we are perplexed and mesmerized with a jigsaw of a draw that is capable of throwing winners from anywhere. Over the years this competition has been known for offering opportunities to the new youngsters to have a go with proving themselves among the very best. The 2017 edition of the tournament has proved to be no different with wild cards given to  Beatriz Haddad Maia, Ashleigh Barty, Natalia Vikhlyantseva, Paula Badosa Gibert and Amanda Anisimova, The two I really have been following with interest is Haddad Maia and Anisimova. The latter with serious huge potential.

I am not going to say anything about Tsurenko because there is nothing to say. On the other hand Haddad Maia just won an ITF tournament at Clare and comes to Miami in threatening form. You might ask what is so threatening about winning an ITF event. A win is a win and it gives birth to confidence. But more importantly it is the trend of the market force that interests me here. I have always said that regardless of form, the odds always determines the outcome of any event, if you can translate it. Tsurenko opened yesterday at 1/4 with Haddad at 11/4, then overnight Tsurenko doubles her opening odds at 1/8 with Haddad at 5/1. This in my translation is a clear positive for Haddad propelled by market forces. As one who sees his reputation most important, I always aim to offer my followers with the safest option to ensure there is a smile on their faces at the end of play. I personally fancy Haddad to even have a decent chance at the out right win. however I will go Haddad to win with a 5.5 games start. 9/10

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)

"My gurl" is playing today :)

Beatriz Haddad Maia to beat Lesia Tsurenko @5,00 bet365

I am keeping an eye closely for last half of the year when she won 3 ITF tournaments on hard courts. I watched her play and she is outstanding player, she will not make an unforced error, if she preforms like she can. I hope the big occasion will not be an issue for her...

I like the next bet even more...

Miomor Kecmanovic to beat Lukas Lacko @3,25 bet365

I love to go against Lacko who is in my eyes very poor player and struggled yesterday against much much poorer opponent than Kecmanovic who apparently (thx @DrO) knows these conditions and courts well.

Two more bets that I like...

Renzo Olivo to beat Ernesto Escobedo @3,25 (and growing, you can wait for 3,4, I like the fact that majority is playing on Escobedo) bet365

Olivo crushed Bublik yesterday (juddging by the scoreline and stats of course, because there was no livestream), I don't see any reason why he shouldn't do the same to antoher yougnster who dissapeared after the AO.

Risa Ozaki to beat Julia Boserup @1,72 bet365

Ozaki dealt with Swan perfectly yesterday and she was unlucky to play Osaka in the first round of the IW. Swan was a dangerous opponent for the first round of qualies, she is young and very mich in form... Boserup? Nothing special really :)

Good luck to everyone! :)

Edited by Guest
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janekda

janekda

Posted
Posted

Flipkens - Konjuh 2.90

Great odd as for me.

* They have played once, this year in Auckland. Konjuh won in tight match with 1.9 odd for Flipkens. And now is 2.9? As for me, Flipkens is not in so bad form like odds show.

* Konjuh is horrible in Miami 1:2 (Urzsula Radw. and Bertens defeated her)

* Flipkens can play in Miami very well. She won with Kvitova. Defeated by Sharapova and A.Radwanska in three sets and has positive history there.

* Flipkens won with Brady from Brady's MP. That' great for positive attitude.

Fair odd is 2.0 for Kirsten imo.

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janekda

janekda

Posted
Posted (edited)

Parmentier - Babos 2.62

Another nice odd. I understand Babos is favourite because of ranking, good performance in Miami, H2H 2:0 for Babos. But Parmentier(edited) is performance of her life. She won 4 of last 5 matches as underdog! She plays great tennis right now. On the other side Babos has very bad last results on hard court. Last 9 of 10 she has lost. She won indoor title in Budapest and she can be too satisfied with that for longer time.

Edited by janekda
wrong name
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LePapo

LePapo

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Posted

Incredible how betting is, I was struggling last week but suddenly that Sock run gave me a massive winner and I'm almost even for this season. 

Forecast for this week is hot at around 27-28 degrees but it's way less hot than it was at Indian Wells.

For this week outrights I fancy Nishikori. He lives in Miami and trains here so he's completely used to these conditions. He has a good record here and he reached the final last year. His quarter is really poor in terms of opposition. Cilic out of form, I don't rate Pouille I think he's massively overrated, Fognini who goes missing sometimes. I think the main problem is in his side of the quarter. Simon and the in-form PCB who trades at 24! Nishikori is at slightly over 2.00 to win his quarter and this seems a bit short to me so I would take him to reach the final. The other quarter of the half doesn't look particularly strong. Nadal Dimitrov Raonic and Sock being possibly his Kei's opponent in the semis but I think Nishikori is just better than them in these conditions. I like his chance to be champion as well. In the top half of the draw the finalist should be someone between Kyrgios Thiem Wawrinka and Federer maybe Goffin. Stan has a terrible record here, RF won Indian Wells last week and he might start feeling fatigue if he goes deep in this tournament. Kyrgios seems the big treat in that half IMO. Thiem and Goffin are good players too but I think Nishikori is better.

Then I also like Dimitrov chances to win his quarter. Nadal Raonic and Sock are the main threats. But the spanish was swept away by Federer last week and hasn't showed anything great since the Aus Open. To be honest Dimitrov was a bit unlucky to lose against Sock last week and Raonic is a big question mark after his injury. Dimitrov is in form this season and I hope this continues in Miami. So to me 5 is a good price for him to reach the semis.

I think Thiem has also a good chance to reach the last 4. His quarter main players are Federer RBA Delpo and Berdych. Just Berdych is on his side of the quarter and he's another player out of form. Thiem had a good tournament in Indian Wells and he was really close to reach the semis  . He has the level he just needs a slight push. Fed doesn't convince here in Miami I think it's the Master where he has the worst record same can be said for Delpo. RBA seems an interesting option to me but he withdrew last week so that gives me some doubts.

Finally in the first quarter this is more speculation. Stan has a dismal record here and tbh you just don't know with Kyrgios. Goffin is having a good year and he reached the semis here last year so I'm happy to back him at 7.50. The Dog does well here in Miami and he trades at 24 I think he's a good chance. Only problem is he's 0-1* down against Jaziri.

For the outrights I'm on

Nishikori to reach the final at 4.30

Nishikori to win the tournament at 7.50

Goffin to win his quarter at 7.50

Thiem to win his quarter at 6.00

Dimitrov to win his quarter at 5.00

Carreno Busta to win his quarter at 24.00

I think that 2.60 on seppi to beat Muller is massive value. Miami conditions definitely don't suit Muller as he has a terrible record here (1-10 , 1-8 in Main draw) and his losses were against really mediocre opposition... His hold+break stats are better than Seppi's but I'd say is because he's taken part in tournaments where conditions are quick which obviously helps his serve. However in Miami the surface is slow for a hard courd and for what I've seen I have the impression rebounds are not too high (correct me if I'm wrong) This might explain why Muller has such a terrible record in Miami. On the other hand, Seppi has a 9-11 record here (7-11 in MD) nothing great but his defeats have come against decent players with the exception of Zeballos in 2010 and his first two appearances. Then head to head between these two stands at 4-1 for Seppi (3-1 on hard) the last match was won by Muller in rotterdam last year. Also Seppi won comfortably in R1 even if it was against Albot, he was solid on serve and with that level it should be enough to keep it to tiebreaks in the worst case. (muller barely breaks his opponents serve)

All in all I think 2.60 is a good price. 

Seppi to beat Muller at 2.60

 

Good luck for this week

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