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Australian Grand Prix


BillyHills
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First GP of the season. I fancy Carlos Sainz to finish in the top 10 in this race. He's finished ninth the two times he's run here. Toro Rosso will use a new engine this season, the same as Renault and RB. This is a massive improvement given that last season they used a ferrari from 2015. Odds on him to finish top 10 are around 1.90 in some bookies you can get up to 2.00. I have some doubts about Massa and I can't believe Lance Stroll (WILLIAMS) is odds on to finish top 10 in his first F1 race ever... Then Honda seems to be in a big trouble with an engine that apparently is not working as expected... 

I also like one of RB drivers to be top 3, I have my doubts about Raikonen, I think he's considerably behind the other 5 drivers but curiously bookies price him as fourth favourite to win the race and in some cases as the third. Since he returned to the F1, he's finished in the podium in Australia just once (First in 2013) then he has two seventh places and two retirements. So I don't have too much confidence on him prior to this race. That's why I think RD drivers have a good chance to finish in the podium. Both are priced at around 2.90 which I think is good value. Question is to know which driver to choose. Only thing that worries me a bit is that engineers say the car has some reliability issues but according to them it's nothing important.

I'll wait tomorrow's practices but I think my main bet will be "Sainz to finish in the top 10/Sainz to score points" at 1.90

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Cracking write-up @LePapo

I think its mainly going to be about reliability in the first couple of races. Whatever has gone by in testing or practice you can be sure Mercedes will turn up on the day and will be hard to beat.

Bottas is the key here for the podium places, if he fits straight in he will obviously be close to Hamilton, i dont think we should under estimate his ability and that could leave just one spot up for garbs between Vettel, Ricciardo and Verstappen.

Qualifying will be most interesting.

Good luck with Sainz, he should go well:ok

Pole Position Betting

58d4f26a5111c_ScreenShot2017-03-24at10.1

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Well the first pole position has been decided and although the result was fairly predictable we did learn a few things going forward.

First of all Mercedes are still the team to beat and Valtteri Bottas will provide enough of a challenge to keep Hamilton on his toes. We all know Lewis just switches off if there is nothing to play for. Bottas is being a little under estimated by the bookies I think.

Ferrari will provide the main opposition from the pack, although i'm not sure if that actually includes Raikkonen at this stage. Sebastian Vettel looks as far in front of him than Hamilton does from Bottas just now. Still a good Vettel set up should give us a decent fight for the title if it stays this way.

Red Bull are disappointingly half a second off the pace and that was confirmed when Ricciardo pushed just too hard and ended up in the barriers, all but ruining his first race of the season. If he can escape a grid penalty he could be a fair bet to make the top 6. Verstappen was very inconsistent and looks booked for fourth/fifth at best this weekend.

Further down the grid I thought Massa did well in the Williams, Lance Stroll is miles away in the other car at the moment. Toro Rosso will be happy with their work so far and should get some decent points from 8th and 9th on the grid. Kyvat is a much better price than Sainz at the minute to make the points so is the value there. Most impressive driver of the others was Romain Grosjean who did a great job in putting his Haas 6th on the grid.

We often get a lot of retirements in the first race of the year so its usually wise to bet on the 'unders' on the finishers market. A safety car is pretty much certain at some stage but is a 1/3 shot with Corals so you wont get rich backing that.

 

Bets 

D.Kvyat 4/5 Points Finish (Bet365)

D.Ricciardo 10/11 Top 6 Finish (W.Hill)

Under 15.5 Finishers 4/6 (Paddy Power/ WHill)

Value Bet - Longshot

V.Bottas EW 10/1 Bet365

 

 

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I think it could well be carnage at the first corner with the new wider cars. All the drivers may well still be in last season frame of mind and having to allow for the extra width, well that's gonna be interesting!

Lots of small parts on the new cars too, so the safety car does look absolutely nailed on. Agree with @BillyHillsabout finishers, especially as the new cars look almost impossible to retrieve once the back end goes. :loon 

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yeah , it was a disappointing session for Red Bull, their car was almost 1 second slower than Mercedes and Vettel. Car is not ready yet. Then Ferrari was a good surprise, Vettel got the second place. Both Toro Rosso gave good impressions and my bookie offers 3 for them to finish in the top 10, I think there might be some value given the condition of the other cars. Main threats are Perez, who said today his car had some hesitations when accelerating, Alonso whose car has still some problems and today he couldn't get into the Q3. And Hulkenberg who has a good chance to get into the top 10 IMO. Both TR to finish top 10 is an it risky but at 3 it seems value isn't it? Then I like a lot that Bottas longshot, not much separates him and Vettel and I Agree he's a bit underrated by the bookies. Raikkonen is way behind these three and RB car is almost 1 second slower so the battle will be between Bottas HMailton and Vettel. I think the british driver will probably end up winning the race but odds of 10 on Bottas are just too high to ignore, especially for the EW 1/3 which should pay 4... 

And finally I have no idea how Stroll was priced as the 9th-10th favourite early in the week ....

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On 24/03/2017, 12:15:50, Sir Puntalot said:

Really looking forward to this new season with all the changes. :beer I think Bottas will challenge Hamilton hard and seems a stronger character than Rosberg, so Hamilton might have more on his plate than last season. :ok 

I agree. I can see a Mercedes one-two in the drivers championship. Vettel can never be ruled out but I still think he is a driver that needs a perfect-running car to deliver results. If Mercedes continue to avoid having issues with their car then it's going to be very difficult to beat them.

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