March 13 - March 19

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

[WinningTipster]

1 PICK FOR TODAY:

INDIAN WELLS: KERBER over VESNINA @ 1.37 pinnacle

Good match-up of styles for the favorite Kerber. She should be too consistent for attacking and sometimes erratic Vesnina.

[Simeon Borisof]

2.75 on Sock to beat Dimtirov,looks value to me for today.Dimitrov was lucky to beat Youzhny last round.That win was all about the veteran being...a veteran.The Russian felt totally apart in the 2nd set because of the heat.Dimitrov already stated that it is impossible for him to stay focused and even to think clearly due to the high temperature.Sock was feeling awkward too in his previous match but somehow managed to hold his serve and won it.Indian Wells is a competition which is new for the Bulgarian and he doesn't have a good record there at all.I think that this is another game where chances are equal and odds of well above evs for Sock,screams value to me.I am sure that if Youzhny was able to win the 2nd set,he would've won the decider and Grigor would be the one who would be falling apart.I am on Sock.

Edited March 15, 2017 by Simeon Borisof

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Wanted to write a longer post at some point, so here we go, feel free to skip if you care about tips only .

We're somewhere at the end of the first quarter of the season/start of the second one and I think it's been a fairly tough going for most punters really. Certainly not all, as we're seeing on this forum, and I myself am sitting somewhere in a very tiny plus at the moment, which is probably good given the big pre-AO slump, but also bad given that I had a tremendous run a few weeks a go.

Anyway, what I think is that we're now really going through some sort of a transition period, with many of the big names slowly falling away. Djokovic isn't a beast anymore, Nadal is beatable even by the likes of Querrey, Berdych and Isner have dipped big time, etc. Meanwhile, the new big names like Thiem, Zverev, etc. are yet to become very consistent. This is exciting on one hand, but it also muddies the waters big time in terms of betting, so one has to adapt somewhat. I'm certainly going to hunt for more value in the long shots department from now one if the opportunities arise, perhaps more Challengers as well. I wish there was some sort of a silver bullet, but there isn't - more research and more tough work awaits everyone who wants to bet on tennis now I'm afraid.

The one thing, for example, that I have strong feelings about now is that short-odds accumulators aren't viable in the current climate. When you have guys like Cilic and Berdych losing from massive leads nearly every single day, it's not "investing" (as some are calling short-odds betting), but walking through a minefield. In fact, perhaps the opposite could be a much better approach, throwing two underdogs together for nice returns, although that's obviously nothing for the faint of heart.

Am I just rambling or does anyone else have similar thoughts about the current tennis "climate"? Who do you think the next strong-but-not-best layer could be - I'm talking the next Berdychs/Isners/Tsongas? Personally, I'm thinking Pouille, Kyrgios, Nishioka, Goffin, Sock, with Zverev and Thiem perhaps rising above them.

[four-leaf]

I am thinking that WTA is more worth to bet on sometimes but not easier. It's quite even in terms of consistent players. Tennis is still fun to bet on even if the big guns start falling away. I say that Reilly Opelka will become the new Isner but right now he's unstable and in bad form.

[CzechPunter]

19 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

I am thinking that WTA is more worth to bet on sometimes but not easier. It's quite even in terms of consistent players. Tennis is still fun to bet on even if the big guns start falling away. I say that Reilly Opelka will become the new Isner but right now he's unstable and in bad form.

Opelka is an interesting one. I think Escobedo is just a better version of him though, not much older either unless my memory fails me. And then there's Fritz as well, the Americans really have us covered in terms of big and powerful . The problem with these styles is that there's always at least one really good returner around that cleans them up. Raonic might be the pinnacle of what you can achieve with such a big frame - and it doesn't guarantee Grand Slam trophies unless you've got the right mentality to go with it. And I mean look at Raonic again with all the meditations and focus trainings, etc. - he's really doing the hard work there, impossible for me to see someone like Kyrgios or even Opelka being better in that department.

[four-leaf]

2 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Opelka is an interesting one. I think Escobedo is just a better version of him though, not much older either unless my memory fails me. And then there's Fritz as well, the Americans really have us covered in terms of big and powerful . The problem with these styles is that there's always at least one really good returner around that cleans them up. Raonic might be the pinnacle of what you can achieve with such a big frame - and it doesn't guarantee Grand Slam trophies unless you've got the right mentality to go with it. And I mean look at Raonic again with all the meditations and focus trainings, etc. - he's really doing the hard work there, impossible for me to see someone like Kyrgios or even Opelka being better in that department.

True! Even an oldie as Jurgen Melzer with his return is still well capable of cleaning those big and powerful guys up.Lucas Pouille, Yoshihito Nishioka and David Goffin are all good returners but I don't think they are great in return like David Ferrer has been and Andy Murray.

[CzechPunter]

Might be mental&experience thing, especially with Nishioka, who is still very much developing. Who's the next Ferrer I have no idea, especially if one means someone who's really good on most surfaces and excellent on clay. Busta is probably too old to explode like that, Thiem seems to have gone the ball-bashing route now instead of the grinding one, Olivo looked promising but not anymore. Minaur has a sweet style, really clean. Actually, he's gone 20-7 on clay in 2016 Futures by the looks of things, no big scalps yet though. Casper Ruud will be big as well on clay, but not comparable to Ferrer style-wise I'm afraid.

[four-leaf]

Czech what do you think of Tommy Paul and Andrey Rublev? Are they names for the future? Tommy Paul has fallen away big time since being ranked around top 200. I don't belive in that guy. I remember how he fell last season in 3 sets to Smyczek and you had that one covered. Right now Tommy Paul has lost the first set 7-6 to doubles specialist Matwe Middelkoop in qualies for Irving challenger featuring a lot of top 100 players. Andrey Rublev as I write has lost first set 6-3 to Ramkumar Ramanathan. He's one player I think could make it to top 20 if he cleans up his head but that might take some time.

[four-leaf]

Pablo Carreno Busta to beat (-1.5 sets) Dusan Lajovic 2.18 with Pinnaclesports

I don't see how Dusan is gonna be able to stop PCB from winning this in straights. Dusan is not in any world beater form and probably never will be and he only beat Vasek Pospisil because of the slow IW conditions that makes big servers like Vasek unable to capitalize on their big serve. PCB has his game plan and will stick to it as he always does and it mostly works when facing a player like Dusan. Good price for a probable outcome.

[CzechPunter]

No, not every single US player can make it and I don't think Paul will, I reckon he'll stay well in the shadows of guys like Fritz or Opelka. Rublev will be top 30 if he continues improving imo. Btw, it's not a disaster to lose against Ramanathan, he's an under-rated guy, like a few other Indians (Bhambri).

[four-leaf]

I'm still waiting for Rublev to get somewhere in other then challenger tournaments.

[CzechPunter]

Well, there I am, praising Pouille, and he beats himself against Young .

[Simeon Borisof]

I can't get it.How can you outclass your opponent in every single department-both physically and psychologically winning the set by 1:6 and then you start the decider self destroying and losing to nil?Shouldn't it be Young the one under pressure and making silly mistakes?

Edited March 14, 2017 by Simeon Borisof

[CzechPunter]

2 minutes ago, Simeon Borisof said:

I can't get it.How can you outclass your opponent in every single department-both physically and psychologically winning the set by 1:6 and then you start the decider self destroying and losing to nil?Shouldn't it be Young the one under pressure and making silly mistakes?

Berdych was leading 6-1 *5-2 against Nishioka yesterday, so there you go, crazy things happen in tennis.

[Guest]

Interesting topic must say

Goffin (27), Thiem (24), Sock (25), PCB (26), Dimitrov (26) and some other players are not "youngsters" anymore and they should be more consistent, and better overall on every surface (they all more or less preform well on very few types of surfaces, PCB clay and slow hard courts, Thiem clay, Sock fast hardcourts,...). In their early days we were comparing them with big four but they are not even close to them. Big four had many GS titles by their names when they were 24-26!  In my eyes these guys are not even close to likes of Ferrer and Berdych. Those two guys were just very unlucky to be of the same age as big four. They always reached QF/SF/F in big tournaments (Masters and GS), played at least decent tennis on every type of surface, ranked 5 or 6 for many years, but they just could not provide a bit more to go over big four, little magic is what they were missing. Very unlucky for both of them, they both deserve a GS title in my eyes, Ferrer -> RG and Berdych -> Wimbledon  

If I had to choose next Berdych/Ferrer among them it should be Dimitrov without any doubts.

For me there is only one future number one youngster right now and he is Alexander Zverev. He needs to get a bit stronger pyshicaly and he will be a beast and monutain to climb for other players. While I am writing this post, Kyrgios is making him look foolish, but Kyrgios is 2 years older which is quite a lot in their age. Also, I cannot see Kyrgios being consistent and mentally strong enough to be number 1, but he will get a slam or two I guess on his home gorund in AO or Wimbledon, which obviously suits him the best out of four GS.

On the other side, women tennis is at its lowest since Wozniacki was number 1. There are no big names actually, it is astonishing that Pliskova with only serving is number 3 in the world, that Kerber with no game whatsoever is number 2, that Kuznetsova is ranked 8th...

Future number 1? Hmmm... Serena as long as she plays?

Among all youngsters I like the most Maia Beatriz Haddad, who plays with left hand which I always saw as an advantage in tennis.  The thing is that she is not that young anymore, she is 21 and by that age Sharapova was a super mega star.  There are Osaka, Bellis, Vondrusova, Bouzkova, Zidansek, Blinkova, Vikhlyantseva and many more... Winning a lot on ITFs but that is just not good enough. Madison Keys is of their age or only 1 or two years older and she is TOP10 and should be even higher, if she can stay healthy. I would rate her as biggest talent right now.
 

Do you agree with me, partially agree, disagree? I would love to hear your thoughts...

[Simeon Borisof]

15 hours ago, Simeon Borisof said:

2.75 on Sock to beat Dimtirov,looks value to me for today.Dimitrov was lucky to beat Youzhny last round.That win was all about the veteran being...a veteran.The Russian felt totally apart in the 2nd set because of the heat.Dimitrov already stated that it is impossible for him to stay focused and even to think clearly due to the high temperature.Sock was feeling awkward too in his previous match but somehow managed to hold his serve and won it.Indian Wells is a competition which is new for the Bulgarian and he doesn't have a good record there at all.I think that this is another game where chances are equal and odds of well above evs for Sock,screams value to me.I am sure that if Youzhny was able to win the 2nd set,he would've won the decider and Grigor would be the one who would be falling apart.I am on Sock.

[Simeon Borisof]

For tonight,i can't see Cuevas threatening Goffin too much.Except winning Sao Paulo,Cuevas has done next to nothing this year and i am far from impressed by his run in Indian Wells as well.He needed 2 tiebreaks against Klizan who is kind of a mess these days while his win against Fognini was a total fluke.Fognini just didn't seem to care and his 1st serve was awful,basically nothing was working how its supposed to for the Italian.Well.on the other hand we have Goffin who is the man on form,gaining some good wins under his belt-big server like Khachanov and versatile player like Vinolas.Although he is yet to win an ATP title this year,he has already made his way to two finals and i must say that both of those defeats were against players on beast mode like Dimitrov and Tsonga so the Belgian had no chance(even though he could've won in Sofia if it wasn't the home crowd)Anyway,Goffin';s solid,solid baseline will give him calmness while Cuevas can't rely too much on his finishing nowadays.I was wondering which option is better between -3.5 games handicap and set handicap and i chose the 2nd one.Goffin to win 2:0 @ 1.80 with bet365.

Edited March 16, 2017 by Simeon Borisof

[CzechPunter]

@ejmali333 I think you're being a bit unfair towards the young generation, the competition was much weaker when the Big Four was first making inroads, now the young guys have to fight against a much stronger field all-round, so I don't find it surprising that they don't have any GS titles just yet. They'll get them once the Big Four leaves, although they won't have time to get a lot of them obviously. Certainly agree with Zverev over Kyrgios, the dedication is just on another level.

I also agree with you that WTA is somewhat weaker, there's a lot of promise for the future though imo with the girls you've named, I agree with every single name of the list. Serena isn't all that keen on playing anymore by the looks of things, two years of Grand Slams at most I think.

[liquidglass]

11 hours ago, ejmali333 said:

Interesting topic must say

Goffin (27), Thiem (24), Sock (25), PCB (26), Dimitrov (26) and some other players are not "youngsters" anymore and they should be more consistent, and better overall on every surface (they all more or less preform well on very few types of surfaces, PCB clay and slow hard courts, Thiem clay, Sock fast hardcourts,...). In their early days we were comparing them with big four but they are not even close to them. Big four had many GS titles by their names when they were 24-26!  In my eyes these guys are not even close to likes of Ferrer and Berdych. Those two guys were just very unlucky to be of the same age as big four. They always reached QF/SF/F in big tournaments (Masters and GS), played at least decent tennis on every type of surface, ranked 5 or 6 for many years, but they just could not provide a bit more to go over big four, little magic is what they were missing. Very unlucky for both of them, they both deserve a GS title in my eyes, Ferrer -> RG and Berdych -> Wimbledon  

If I had to choose next Berdych/Ferrer among them it should be Dimitrov without any doubts.

For me there is only one future number one youngster right now and he is Alexander Zverev. He needs to get a bit stronger pyshicaly and he will be a beast and monutain to climb for other players. While I am writing this post, Kyrgios is making him look foolish, but Kyrgios is 2 years older which is quite a lot in their age. Also, I cannot see Kyrgios being consistent and mentally strong enough to be number 1, but he will get a slam or two I guess on his home gorund in AO or Wimbledon, which obviously suits him the best out of four GS.

On the other side, women tennis is at its lowest since Wozniacki was number 1. There are no big names actually, it is astonishing that Pliskova with only serving is number 3 in the world, that Kerber with no game whatsoever is number 2, that Kuznetsova is ranked 8th...

Future number 1? Hmmm... Serena as long as she plays?

Among all youngsters I like the most Maia Beatriz Haddad, who plays with left hand which I always saw as an advantage in tennis.  The thing is that she is not that young anymore, she is 21 and by that age Sharapova was a super mega star.  There are Osaka, Bellis, Vondrusova, Bouzkova, Zidansek, Blinkova, Vikhlyantseva and many more... Winning a lot on ITFs but that is just not good enough. Madison Keys is of their age or only 1 or two years older and she is TOP10 and should be even higher, if she can stay healthy. I would rate her as biggest talent right now.
 

Do you agree with me, partially agree, disagree? I would love to hear your thoughts...

Well, Czech has already said most of what I would have said. It is always very hard and perhaps almost impossible to compare two different generations of tennis players and arrive at safe and reasonable conclusions. We are clearly in new times now that cannot be in any way compared to the old - this really is in all sports. Hardly do you ever see the Steve Davis's, Stephen Hendrys, Grafs, Sampras's, and in fact individuals dominating various sports as they did in the past. In times past, the prerequisite for unrivaled progress was skill and nothing else. Sampras and Agassi could expect to enter a grand slam from slumber and expect to win. Today, the emphasis is more on mental and physical conditioning, so much so that skill most times breaks down in the absence of all these.

Since the beginning of the global recession, we have seen an influx of players from Slovakia, Russia, USA and China especially in the women's tennis where it is three times tougher to survive on the ITF Tour than in the WTA.. The same can be said for the men too where the Satilite tour more or less represents a lions den that can be very difficult to climb out of. Going on from there, I would say the age factor is not really as important as it used to be in the past. Take Konta for example who at 17, 18 19 was nothing special. But she matured, and was eventually able to put in the hard work over more skilled players and took advantage of it. Today she is almost the most progressive player on the womens tour. Guys like Nishioka are cutting through like hot knife through butter. The Asians have always built their foundations on hard work and have always excelled in the demand for physical and mental distinction. It is one of the reasons why it is so very rare to find an outsider win most of those Asian tournaments.

Tennis has become a game of times and seasons and is a very important factor that one has to consider when trying to figure out the possible winner of a match. Players now prepare themselves to play well in different sections of the year as opposed to generally preparing themselves for the whole year as used to be the case. The physical and mental demands are just so high and intensely demanding. That is why I always seem surprised when I see write-ups where people just say things like Mister A has played Mister B three times and the last twice ended in straight sets, therefore Mister A should win again, forgetting that Mister A has just ended his mini season having played a lot of tennis prior.

In summary I believe that the standard of tennis is still as high as it used to be and even more competitive, which is why it is hard to forecast matches that look easy on paper. Even with all the new brigade of players mentioned, over 50% of them will still not make it and quickly disappear. Vaidisova is a name to recall. Mona Bartel who has recently been lucky enough to swim back to the surface. Bouchard still languishing under the surface of the deep waters, Muguruza has lost her reins. Other players just fizzle out and disappear without notice. Finally, it is not that all the players mentioned are not all rounders on all surfaces, it is just that with this new sectional way of preparation, most of them deliberately focus on particular surfaces and leave the others out till the grand slam or masters comes along. That is why regardless, the same familiar faces always seem to occupy the last four spots of most of the major tournaments.

 

[four-leaf]

I believe I am wrong about Pablo Carreno Busta tonight. Having looked throught their head-to-head which I did not yesterday I consider Dusan to have a good chance of taking a set and sending the match over 22.5 games so...

Dusan Lajovic/Pablo Carreno Busta over 22.5 games at 2.04 with Pinnacle 

That will be my pick for the match instead of PCB to win in straight sets which I see a big risk of being a fail. Bad analyze by me so sorry for posting before I checked the head-to-head which in this case I think will play a big role in the outcome of the match. They've met 4 times and it's been 3 sets every time with Dusan winning twice and it's been all on clay where both does their best and IW is close to clay for a hardcourt. I didn't see Dusan as good enough to make things difficult for PCB but Dusan will like his chances of staying close for a large part of the match.

[four-leaf]

Thought the -1.5 sets PCB bet was lost so I placed over 22.5 games instead but both came in. And the last analyze was better then the first.

[four-leaf]

Caroline Wozniacki to beat (-4 games) Kristina Mladenovic at 1.87 with Pinnaclesports

It's 3-0 head to head to Caroline and she's covered -4 games every time so I doubt Kristina will be able to tag along in this match. Caroline had a good game against Madison Keys and will have a similar game here I would suggest.

[Guest]

@four-leaf nice one!  Perfect result for you and I only played 2:0. PCB was so much better, barely loosing points on his serve, but he was a bit weaker on return as usually. But then Lajovic took the lead in TB and I told my self it is alwyas like that, the guy who is playong better then losses a set in TB and then wins 3rd one 6:1 or something easily  I always wondered why is he not performing better on hard courts, he is a tall guy with solid serve... I was going big stakes on him against Bautista, such a shame that match was not played...

I am watching the draw today and the guys that I mentioned in my last post, they all play today and they should all win those kind of matches if they want to be next Ferrer or Berdych!  PCB (did his job well), now Goffin, then Sock and Thiem to follow.

Goffin is alredy behind 1:3 in the first set... Hmmm :)

[LePapo]

as czech mentioned, i also find this year a bit difficult in terms of betting. i'm personally on around -20 units on tennis. not the best deciding set record this season for my bets...

for tomorrow my bookie offers 2.10 on PCB to win and i'll be on that, massive value imo,  not writing a preview as i usually do as my confidence is a bit gone these days. i saw four leaf followed me on schwartz man. sorry mate, seemed to be an easy winner after the first set ...

as i wrote earlier this week im on sock to reach the semis , he'll face kei for a place in the last four. has anyone seen kei this week? i'd appreciate if someone can write some info about him, haven't had much time to watch the games this week...

isner never had a chance against monfils, and tsonga lost to the fog!!! so no luck for my other outrights

ps: don't know if it's my impression but it seems that more people are writing their previews and thoughts here!

[CzechPunter]

5 hours ago, LePapo said:

ps: don't know if it's my impression but it seems that more people are writing their previews and thoughts here!

And that's a good thing . Can't help you with Nishikori, didn't see any of his IW matches.

[ElPrincipito007]

I am having a great year in terms of tennis betting so farand you guys are the main reason for that. The AO started awfully with 1 out of 6, but after that I had one of my best runs ever with 12/13. ROI this year is 13,89%. Normally I have more profit when betting on the womens, but this year my ROI on women's tennis is negative and I am doing really fine on men's tennis and that is, I think, because everyone can beat each other nowadays. Despite of this, football betting is not going well so far

Mladenovic @3,49

Two players who have a fantastic year so far, but I don't get why a player (Mladenovic) who has a 14-4 record so far can be such an underdog, despite the H2H.

Edited March 16, 2017 by ElPrincipito007

[CzechPunter]