Tennis - 27 September - 3 October

[pakelly]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October

And couple matches in Bangkok... 1) Jarkko Nieminen -4.5 AH vs Danai Udomchoke. 1.85 @ Nordicbet (8/10) This is THE gift of the day. Udomchoke is something like Andreas Vinciguerra. They both play only like one tournament per year and if Vinci can do something serious in Bastad then Udomchoke is terrible. Playing Nieminen on hard courts will not help him. This match will be over even before it starts. Total of 21 games is a joke as well. I'm preferring handicap though in a case of slow start by Jarkko. Funny enough Nieminem crushed UdomChoke in their only previous meeting which of course was in this even back in 2003. Jarkko won 6-4, 6-1. Can imagine something quite similar today.

Nice shout. Took the handicap and unders. :cheers

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October Having some early choices from tomorrow's matches... 1) Victoria Azarenka -4 AH vs Marion Bartoli. 1.95 @ Pinnacle (7/10) Taking this one straight away and not waiting for tomorrow, because it will be down in lightning speed. Bartoli sucks potatoes against Azarenka and has not beaten her in 5 matches. She's taken just one set against Vika and that was in the match they played few months ago in Stanford. Bartoli should have won that one, as she was set and break up but failed to take advantage. Both players are big hitters and Azarenka for me has got better defense which will prove to be the difference in this one. Might consider unders, too, but failed on under when they played in Montreal. It finished 6-2, 7-6 to Azarenka, ruining unders. So sticking with handicaps this time around. 2) Kevin Anderson > Andrey Golubev. 1.90 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Still not convinced by Golubev. Anderson has got huge serve and that will help him stay alive. Might be all about tie-breaks and big Kevin should have advantage in those. I think 1.90 is price too good to be missed on Anderson here. 3) Daniel Brands +4 AH vs Thiemo De Bakker. 1.95 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Ridiculous price on De Bakker. Having a laugh here. If Brands was not so stupid and had a brain I might actually back him to get a winner here but will have just handicap which I really do believe should work. This match will be all about serve and tie-breaks are looming. 4 games is way too much for De Bakker to cover, I guess. 4) Denis Istomin -4 AH vs Marsel Ilhan. 1.85 @ Nordicbet (5/10) Don't think Ilhan should be here. He has earned quite a lot pts in Challengers over past weeks and broke into Top 100. Still not sure he belongs at this level. Istomin should have a straight forward win. They have played just once before and Istomin won that one 6-1, 6-4. Challenger in Uzbekistan 3 years ago.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October Gone for five selections tomorrow. - Bangkok: Jurgen Melzer -4.5 games AH (vs Dudi Sela) @ 2.06 with Pinnacle (5/10) I rate Melzer's chances here. He leads the H2H 2-0 over Sela, one of which was on a hard court, and enjoys playing in these conditions. Sela's too erratic on serve against guys in the Top 25 on serve. He's got a nice array of shots but Melzer will always get a look on his service games. The Austrian has played at a high level all year and I don't see him having too many problems against a player he matches up well with. - Bangkok: Ernests Gulbis -4 games AH (vs Rainer Schuettler) @ 1.909 with Pinnacle (5/10) Schuettler came through his opening match with Mello today but I really can't see him going any further. Gulbis should have too much power for him. Indoor hard court suits the Latvian because he's got the game for the quick conditions - huge serve, big groundies etc. Schuettler's crafty but I always feel he's susceptible to younger players who have the power to blow him off court. His serve can often go missing too. Gulbis should take care of him. - Kuala Lumpur: Marcos Baghdatis -4.5 games AH (vs Santiago Giraldo) @ 2.02 with Pinnacle (4/10) I was really impressed with Baghdatis today as he took care of Nishikori and I feel he'll be able to cover the line against Giraldo. Couple of factors here. Baghdatis has got more variation in his shots and is comfortable on this type of surface; Giraldo is essentially a clay courter who is still learning on indoor hard. The Colombian had an easy R1 tie against Pryzyscieny but still lost his serve twice in that one and he can get a bit one-dimensional - it's all about power for him. Baghdatis for me here. - Bangkok: Florent Serra (vs Guillermo Garcia-Lopez) @ 2.10 with Pinnacle (4/10) I watched a bit of Garcia-Lopez today against Berrer and wasn't overly impressed. He choked when serving for the match and a better rallier would've taken him. Serra is just that. Handy enough player when on form. Both players prefer the clay so no real advantage there. H2H is 1-1 and Serra won their meeting this year. The Frenchman came from a set down to beat Gabashvili in R1 and played very well in sets two and three. He's able to match Garcia-Lopez off the deck and has a stronger serve. Frenchman to edge it for me. - Kuala Lumpur: David Ferrer -5.5 games AH (vs Bernard Tomic) @ 2.06 with Pinnacle (4/10) Ferrer should be too savvy for Tomic here. No doubt the Australian teenager is going to be a star in the future but he's not ready to live with experienced Top 25 players like Ferrer. The Spaniard will get everything back that's thrown at him and force Tomic into errors. The Australian doesn't play with much power so there will be plenty of rallies, and I'd fancy Ferrer in them. Good movement, good off both flanks, he'll be hard to pass. He's also got plenty to play for with a berth at the Tour finals up for grabs. :hope

[WinningTipster]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October Hi guys, One pick for 3rd round of Tokyo tomorrow: WOZNIACKI TO D PAVLYUCHENKOVA @ 1.3 on pinnaclesports A good match-up for Wozniacki here. Pavlyuchenkova has a good attacking game suitable for fast courts here but Wozniacki will probably be force her to hit too many balls and make a lot of errors. The head-to-head is 4:0 to Wozniacki and 8:0 in sets. Wozniacki looked very good playing first round match today. She is looking to finish the year as number one so she must be very motivated here.

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October

Marcos Baghdatis vs Kei Nishikori over 22 games 1.952 Pinnacle This match will not be over in a haste. Nishikori +3.5 or straight win is to risky but this overbet feels very safe. Olivier Rochus vs Juan Martin Del Potro Rochus 2.37 bet365 Noway Del Potro is gonna make a comeback and just win like that against a fit player like Rochus. It's gonna take a bit more time for Del Potro to come back and win matches. Rochus have been in Australia playing Davis cup so he's got no problem with time zone and is ready for this tournament in Bangkok. In these circumstances I'm ready to take Rochus.

LOSS A bit wrong about Nishikori. WIN My theory was right. It's gonna take some time for Del Potro to be back.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October Again 20 games in Rezai match......:wall

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October Mikhail Kukushkin vs Olivier Rochus Rochus 1.72 bet365 I think I'll be backing Rochus again here. I think he is very confident now after Belgium won in Davis cup and beating Del Potro. I remember Rochus streak in Stockholm open last year where he deserved the win against Bellucci. Kukushkin is in trouble if Rochus plays his running game which he ofcourse will. Rochus has a lot of experience and is not afraid of big servers and I don't even know if Kukushkin is powerful on serve. I remember he's got extremely weak second serve. Kukushkin won two matches in Davis cup and took revenge on Wawrinka but just days after Wawrinka played the last match in US open so he was tired. I think Rochus takes this. He is fit, confident, experienced and reads his opponents serve extremely well. Viktor Troicki vs Jarkko Nieminen Troicki 1.40 bet365 Serbian should win easily 2-0. Nieminen lost 2-0 this summer very easy to Troicki I remember.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October Ernests Gulbis -4 AH vs Rainer Schuettler. 1.86 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Saw Scuettler against Mello yesterday. There was nothing impressive about him. Serve was inconsistent and Mello was making lots of unforced errors, therefore Schuettler didn't have much to do really. Gulbis has his errors, too. However, I think he will have straight forward win today. A break in each set and handicap's done.

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October Benjamin Becker vs Mischa Zverev Zverev 2.25 bet365 Price on Zverev have been sinking from 2.62 on 365 and I still think it's playable. I think Zverev showed enough in Metz to win this. He seems to be picking up some form and beat Becker before on hard 2-0. Becker is crap most parts of the season except when he plays on grass. He is not even average on hard compared to others who is average while he is more of outstanding on grass. His form is bottom since 3 months back. Zverev can continue to win to I back him.

[Cornell]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October

Sport	Tennis
Event	Kaia Kanepi vs. Jelena Jankovic
Selection	Jankovic (-1.5) Set H (Asian-handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	29/09/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Unibet @ 2.80
Reasoning	Well, I have written in my last prewviw that Kaia Kanepi is just a overrtaetd player at the moment, there are no doubts about her real good form as she has showed some nice tennis in her latest tournaments, but still the class remain class in the end. Kanepi will play today against Jelena Jankovic and if to speak about the difference between these two players I will say that there is ameaningful one, Jelena is just one class over Kanpei but despite that she is still rated with these crazy odds. Jelena is a complete pllayer with great deffensive skills, she can compete against top players as she is one of them while Kanepi depend a lot of her serve and groundstrokes which are much more difficult to be hit with accuracy and stability than to do a great job from the baseline. Jankovic should dominate that rallies from the baseline as she is clear the better player than Kanepi. All in all, very nice value here on Jankovic, a perfect moment to go against Kanpei as she is just too overrated already. Good Luck!

[milano01]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October raonic wastes 2 sets points and then loses the tie break :(

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October One more for today. Bangkok: Over 22 games AH (Thiemo de Bakker vs Daniel Brands) @ 1.952 with Pinnacle (4/10) Completely agree with Psycho on this one. Brands +4 games does look too high and the bookies seem to have underestimated the serving prowess of these two. Brands has very little else to his game apart from his serve but I reckon he can keep this one fairly close. My only worry is that his game might come apart if this goes to a third, therefore I've gone for the overs. Both men are clay courters, both have huge serve and poorish return games and in their only previous meeting, on clay, it went the distance. Reckon the line should be set higher, so happy to play this. :hope

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October

Benjamin Becker vs Mischa Zverev Zverev 2.25 bet365 Price on Zverev have been sinking from 2.62 on 365 and I still think it's playable. I think Zverev showed enough in Metz to win this. He seems to be picking up some form and beat Becker before on hard 2-0. Becker is crap most parts of the season except when he plays on grass. He is not even average on hard compared to others who is average while he is more of outstanding on grass. His form is bottom since 3 months back. Zverev can continue to win to I back him.

Ouch, over in 57 min.. Zverev must have been more tired from Metz then Becker.

[b10111]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October

Benjamin Becker vs Mischa Zverev Zverev 2.25 bet365 Price on Zverev have been sinking from 2.62 on 365 and I still think it's playable. I think Zverev showed enough in Metz to win this. He seems to be picking up some form and beat Becker before on hard 2-0. Becker is crap most parts of the season except when he plays on grass. He is not even average on hard compared to others who is average while he is more of outstanding on grass. His form is bottom since 3 months back. Zverev can continue to win to I back him.

Straight sets loss! I didnt want to say anything until the end of the match and besides I respect your opinions. A little advise, when you back players from the same country , look at age and experience.The juniour always gives in to seniors. that said becker is on my streaky player list and I wont bet on him again.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October Zverev lost because of two reasons - (a) he's not very good and (b) he travelled across half the world from Metz only on Monday morning. Becker -3 seems a gift now.

[b10111]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October

Sport	Tennis
Event	Kaia Kanepi vs. Jelena Jankovic
Selection	Jankovic (-1.5) Set H (Asian-handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	29/09/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Unibet @ 2.80
Reasoning	Well, I have written in my last prewviw that Kaia Kanepi is just a overrtaetd player at the moment, there are no doubts about her real good form as she has showed some nice tennis in her latest tournaments, but still the class remain class in the end. Kanepi will play today against Jelena Jankovic and if to speak about the difference between these two players I will say that there is ameaningful one, Jelena is just one class over Kanpei but despite that she is still rated with these crazy odds. Jelena is a complete pllayer with great deffensive skills, she can compete against top players as she is one of them while Kanepi depend a lot of her serve and groundstrokes which are much more difficult to be hit with accuracy and stability than to do a great job from the baseline. Jankovic should dominate that rallies from the baseline as she is clear the better player than Kanepi. All in all, very nice value here on Jankovic, a perfect moment to go against Kanpei as she is just too overrated already. Good Luck!

Im new here but I have noticed a few things, just want to know what people think! Again another straight sets victory for Kanepi.I missed out on a couple of bets last week after being put off by some peoples comments on certain players.I respect everybodys opinion and you guys have helped my tennis betting to improve in more ways than one, however I believe that it is important to rate the strength of your bets correctly as a lot of people depend on your comments. The other thing is I think we should allow people to post their views on certain players and prices without necessarily adding the links to the book maker. we are missing out on knowledgeable input from guys who may watch the sport but do not necessarily gamble. thank you

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October

Zverev lost because of two reasons - (a) he's not very good and (b) he travelled across half the world from Metz only on Monday morning. Becker -3 seems a gift now.

Anyway we all know Becker is out next round vs Verdasco. Lucky I had no stake on Zverev because I did'nt get a payout in time on Stakhovsky vs Raonic over 22.5.

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October

Gone for five selections tomorrow. - Bangkok: Ernests Gulbis -4 games AH (vs Rainer Schuettler) @ 1.909 with Pinnacle (5/10) Schuettler came through his opening match with Mello today but I really can't see him going any further. Gulbis should have too much power for him. Indoor hard court suits the Latvian because he's got the game for the quick conditions - huge serve, big groundies etc. Schuettler's crafty but I always feel he's susceptible to younger players who have the power to blow him off court. His serve can often go missing too. Gulbis should take care of him. :hope

I mean come on, A 34 year old veteran vs 22 year old latvian powerhouse. This is the gift of the day. I'm taking Ernests Gulbis -4.5 2.10 bet365

[jeremda01]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October

I mean come on, A 34 year old veteran vs 22 year old latvian powerhouse. This is the gift of the day. I'm taking Ernests Gulbis -4.5 2.10 bet365

yeah, totally agree with you, i took him for an outright though, you never know, it might be a tight one though. i'm just being on the safe side.

[jeremda01]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October do any of you here have access to live-online betting? i wish i did but in Australia we don't get it here because of the law etc. do you use it? does it help in covering bets and stuff? i know this is sort of off topic

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October

do any of you here have access to live-online betting? i wish i did but in Australia we don't get it here because of the law etc. do you use it? does it help in covering bets and stuff? i know this is sort of off topic

I had some use of livebetting yesterday in Shaktar donetsk second half before they scored and livebet -0.75 Real Madrid early in second half. It helped me get a nice double.

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October

yeah' date=' totally agree with you, i took him for an outright though, you never know, it might be a tight one though. i'm just being on the safe side.[/quote'] I forgot Gulbis is not matchfit so you could be right it might be tight.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October Mixed bag today, missing out on a few handicaps by a half a game. Such is betting, however. Going for a few on tomorrow's card. - Kuala Lumpur: Under 19.5 games AH (Robin Soderling vs Edouard Roger-Vasselin) @ 1.926 with Pinnacle (7/10) I can't see Soderling being caused too many problems here. Roger-Vasselin is way out of his depth at this level against someone like the Swede on indoor courts. Soderling's best work comes in the conditions - he's got an exceptional record on indoor hard (W93 L35) and his huge serve and flat, deep groundstrokes work really well for him. He'll be able to out-hit Roger-Vasselin, who possesses an average serve, meaning Soderling will get a look-in on most occasions. The Swede was playing indoor in the Davis Cup a few weeks ago and won his two games very easily against Fognini and Bolelli, so he comes here with decent prep under his belt. I can't see the Frenchman being able to deal with Soderling here, and although the -5.5 handicap did appeal, the unders offers security in case of a 6-4 6-3. - Kuala Lumpur: Denis Istomin +3.5 games AH (vs Tomas Berdych) @ 1.952 with Pinnacle (5/10) I rate Istomin's chances of getting close to Berdych here. The Czech has not looked in good form recently. On his day, Berdych would beat Istomin but right now, he appears fatigued, low on confidence and low on motivation. I think his spring-to-summer travails have wiped him out. Getting to the business end of two Slams is tough and I think he's starting to wind down. He had a belter of a match with Istomin at SW19 this year in their only meeting, needing five gruelling sets to see off the Uzbek, and that was when the Czech was playing well. Istomin came through a few rocky moments againsy Ilhan but will come on for that match. He can match Berdych on serve and in terms of power. Berdych looked a broken man during the Davis Cup tie with Serbia and this is a tricky opponent for him. Happy to back Istomin on the plus. - Kuala Lumpur: Andrey Golubev (vs Kevin Anderson) @ 2.04 with Pinnacle (4/10) I don't understand why Anderson is the favourite here. The South African has made giant strides this year but still lacks maturity on an indoor hard court. He was taken pretty close by Falla in R1 - think the Colombian served for the match - while Golubev was very impressive against Lu, not even conceding a break point chance. The Kazakh has had a good year thus far, winning his maiden title on clay, and he comes here playing good tennis. He's got a nasty serve out wide that'll move Anderson around and he has better finesse and craft around the court. Anderson is obviously a threat on serve but his game off the ground can be picked at. Golubev has more in his locker and is playing well - reckon he can take Anderson down here. - Bangkok: Under 23.5 games (Mikhail Kukushkin vs Olivier Rochus) @ 1.909 with Pinnacle (4/10) I can see why the game line is so high in this one but I still think it's too big. Rochus played a blinder against Del Potro in R1 - he raised his game and really took it to the Argentine. He was serving and moving well and he's got a lovely array of groundstrokes. I reckon he'll be able to take care of Kukushkin here. Sure, the Kazakh didn't lose his serve against DeHeart - one of the reasons why this line is so big - but Rochus is a different test altogether. He's compact from the baseline and doesn't throw in too many errors like the American did. He'll be a far sterner test. Kukushkin has made good strides forward this year but I think his game, based mainly from the back of the court, is a bit one dimensional and savvy players will work him out. I reckon Rochus can get the job done in under 23.5 games but the line also offers security in Kukushkin rattles past him. :hope

[jeremda01]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October

Im new here but I have noticed a few things, just want to know what people think! Again another straight sets victory for Kanepi.I missed out on a couple of bets last week after being put off by some peoples comments on certain players.I respect everybodys opinion and you guys have helped my tennis betting to improve in more ways than one, however I believe that it is important to rate the strength of your bets correctly as a lot of people depend on your comments. The other thing is I think we should allow people to post their views on certain players and prices without necessarily adding the links to the book maker. we are missing out on knowledgeable input from guys who may watch the sport but do not necessarily gamble. thank you

b10111, that is a fair thing to say. i agree also with you. i don't gamble a lot, but when i do, i do it for fun ;) i reckon that: davvy will beat andreev gulbis will beat schuettler too. in terms of strength of bet, i'd say that davvy's is stronger, (cause i staked more on him).

[jeremda01]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October

I had some use of livebetting yesterday in Shaktar donetsk second half before they scored and livebet -0.75 Real Madrid early in second half. It helped me get a nice double.

Okay, right. Well, i can only hope that the government changes the law sometime (soon) hopefully.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October

Im new here but I have noticed a few things, just want to know what people think! Again another straight sets victory for Kanepi.I missed out on a couple of bets last week after being put off by some peoples comments on certain players.I respect everybodys opinion and you guys have helped my tennis betting to improve in more ways than one, however I believe that it is important to rate the strength of your bets correctly as a lot of people depend on your comments. The other thing is I think we should allow people to post their views on certain players and prices without necessarily adding the links to the book maker. we are missing out on knowledgeable input from guys who may watch the sport but do not necessarily gamble. thank you

The more comments the better. However, this is a betting forum, so I can see why people tend to only talk about players in that sense. Still, they'd be more than welcome. I agree entirely with your comment on staking. It's borne out of people copying and pasting from Sports Punter. It's a real pain if you're trying to gauge how strong people's views are. Pyscho is a great example of someone who changed their staking plan for this site - now it's easy to see what his most confident selection is.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October Gulbis looking a little ropey here :(

[rokasar]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October What a shadow of a class player(who he was year ago) Davydenko has become.. He lost first set to average Andreev in the tie break. Then 5-1 lead in second set even had some bp to win 1-6 but wasted all this big advantage and now it's 5-5. What a shame..

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October

What a shadow of a class player(who he was year ago) Davydenko has become.. He lost first set to average Andreev in the tie break. Then 5-1 lead in second set even had some bp to win 1-6 but wasted all this big advantage and now it's 5-5. What a shame..

Seems like his wrist injury has really done for him. Time isn't on his side anymore, and with players possessing more power than ever before, he's not someone who can be relied upon to deliver consistently on the big stage. I don't think he was never really a world class player until last year, when he went on that good run from October onwards. Yes, he'd made the semis of some Slams, but I'm not sure he'll be remembered as one of the game's greats. He has never been considered as a serious contender for any Grand Slam events in all of his career.

[rokasar]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October Yeah.. Davy lost in third. Really poor performance. I think the next year will be crucial for him. If he won't bring his game in the right level where he was before then maybe his carrer is over. He's almost 30 and by his character i think he doesn't want to JUST PLAY. In my mind he's a winner. But we all know his stories and that could lead his carrer into a new level. IMO, he will be a player of 1 and 2 rounds and he will win money not from the game on court. :))