Tennis - 27 September - 3 October

[Atko]

:ok

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October One bet so far me tomorrow morning. Bagkok: Teimuraz Gabashvili vs Florent Serra - Teimuraz Gabashvili @ 2.04 with Betdaq (5/10) I'd make Gabashvili favourite for this one. Serra's not been on form recently and was defeated in Metz last week by Denis Istomin. Gabashvili plays a similar sort of game to Istomin - big serve, lots of power and attacking play. The courts in Bangkok are very quick and benefit attacking players. Serra can be too passive for me. Gabashvili's also having a decent year by his standards. Got far at the French and usually does well in these conditions. Serra leads H2H 2-0 but both those wins came on clay, a surface he plays his best tennis on. Not sure he'll relish playing a hard-hitter in the form he's in on these courts. Happy to back the Russian here. :hope

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October WTA Tokyo 5 matches for Monday. 1) Marion Bartoli > Yanina Wickmayer. 1.83 @ Gamebookers. (6/10) Bartoli is defending 1/4 final from last year in this tournament and generally speaking is just a little bit better than Wickmayer. This surely will be all about who hits the most powerful and accurate shot from the baseline. I think Wickmayer has more errors in her game and that will let her down today. Marion has won the only time they played each other. It was a close wan 6-4, 7-5 earlier this year in Miami and I feel she will have this one as well. 2) Dinara Safina -3 AH vs Julia Goerges. 1.83 @ Pinnacle (5/10) For once in billion years I feel Safina is to be trusted to do the job. I like Goerges a lot and she can hit some cracking shots on her day but will be tired for sure. She played both singles and doubles last week in Seoul, won the doubles title there and will be over the moon and maybe not focused 100%. Safina has won this event in 2008 so knows everything around here. The Russian should get past Goerges. 3) Alisa Kleybanova vs Ana Ivanovic. Under 21.5 games. 1.90 @ Boylesports (7/10) Kleybanova just won Seoul and has to play Tokyo the very next day. It's not a gift. Being a professional she will go for this one as well. However I'm not sure she will be ok mentally as much as physically. Ivanovic has been in the final of this tournament few years ago and will fancy her chances against tired opponent. I do believe that Ana should win this one, however Alisa prolly will have a go and might just last one more match here, therefore I'm cautious and taking under which should be ok in either scenario. They have had only one over in 5 matches and that was in the very first meeting. 4) Polona Hercog vs Aravane Rezai. Over 20.5 games. 1.93 @ Pinnacle (6/10) This gonna be funny match. Hercog is crap on hard. Rezai is crap on any surface at the moment. The thing is that she is not having any motivation at the moment and playing 3-setters all the time. She has managed 9 overs in her last 10 matches. Last 7 matches have gone full distance, even against players like Capra, Craybas and Jovanovski. Let's go for another over, please. Funny enough their only meeting was won by Rezai in... 3 sets (last year's FO). 5) Roberta Vinci > Nadia Petrova. 3.28 @ Bwin (3/10) Petrova retired with gastro intestinal illness in her last match just a couple days ago and you don't get rid of this in 2 days. Not sure she will be ready to go. If she is it still will be an uphill struggle for her against Vinci. The Italian player is a mystery most of the time and any other surface than clay may not suit her game but this is more of a bet against Petrova rather than backing Vinci. Taking first ball bookie here.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October And couple matches in Kuala Lumpur 1) Yen-Hsun Lu > Andrey Golubev. 2.29 @ Pinnacle (6/10) This is one of those I will never understand. They quality lies with Lu, both guys are struggling for form so have to back the underdog. Golubev has not done a great deal apart from couple wins in Davis Cup. Lu has been injured and lost 3 in a row. However he will be playing almost like home and has beaten Golubev in their only match so value definitely lies with Lu. 2) Alejandro Falla vs Kevin Anderson. Over 22.5 games. 1.90 @ 188bet (7/10) This has a feel of overs and probably 3 sets. Anderson has made huge improvement this year and has learned some other shots other than serve and is becoming even bigger force. In today's match I see big Kevin serving very well and holding easily but not having much joy on return. Falla doesn't have huge serve but he can build points nicely and should be able to win the majority of the baseline exchanges. They have played once before and Falla won a 5-setter in Aussie Open couple years ago, so they have a history of long match between them.

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October Marcos Baghdatis vs Kei Nishikori over 22 games 1.952 Pinnacle This match will not be over in a haste. Nishikori +3.5 or straight win is to risky but this overbet feels very safe.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October 100% agreed on a couple of those Psycho. Rezai vs Hercog OVER 20.5 games @ 1.935 (Pinnacle:5pts) One of those matches that could be a real mess, hard to see either closing this in 2 sets.I like Hercog, feel she has a good game on clay and potentially on other surfaces but struggles to get results on hard. Rezai always has dips aswell and with her style she always has loose games where she makes loads of errors.Has the look of overs here. Bartoli to beat Wickmayer @ 1.813 (Pinnacle:3pts) Just rate Bartoli as bit better than Wickmayer and hoping that she can find motivation for this week, she has pts to defend anyway. I dont like Wickmayer at all, pretty brainless at times and if Marion can find her range I think she can take this. Should be a tough one though. And a small punt on Zahlavova-Strycova to beat Errani, looks a little big IMO. Zahlavova-Strycova to beat Errani @ 2.970 (Pinnacle:1pt) 1-1 h2h, Strycova winning the last one in 2008 on indoor hard surface. I quite like her, she's feisty and a bit annoying but usually shows some fight.Not her best surface on hard but neither Errani's....even though the Italian has taken bigger scalps. She can move players around and force errors but still a pretty soft hitter with weak serve. Could be a few breaks in this one. First match for Errani since the US Open, I'd have her price a little bigger so will take a chance here for small stake. GL!

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October Olivier Rochus vs Juan Martin Del Potro Rochus 2.37 bet365 Noway Del Potro is gonna make a comeback and just win like that against a fit player like Rochus. It's gonna take a bit more time for Del Potro to come back and win matches. Rochus have been in Australia playing Davis cup so he's got no problem with time zone and is ready for this tournament in Bangkok. In these circumstances I'm ready to take Rochus.

[HoRSoVsKi]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October What is happening in Tokyo, why matches are delayed or there is no coverage?

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October rain delay, only one match at a time (one court has roof apparently)

[HoRSoVsKi]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October Is there any better livescore than this: http://www.toray-ppo.co.jp/scoreboard2010/0927/live_bt.php

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October

- Teimuraz Gabashvili @ 2.04 with Betdaq (5/10)

Serra d. Gabashvili 6-7 6-4 6-4 - LOSS Poor start to the week. Both men had chances but Serra was the more consistent. Good shout on unders in the Ivanovic match Psycho, followed on that one. Also followed on Safina though, what on earth has happened to that girl!? Is she injured? Or is she just playing really poorly?

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October

Serra d. Gabashvili 6-7 6-4 6-4 - LOSS Poor start to the week. Both men had chances but Serra was the more consistent. Good shout on unders in the Ivanovic match Psycho, followed on that one. Also followed on Safina though, what on earth has happened to that girl!? Is she injured? Or is she just playing really poorly?

It's Safina. She doesn't have to be injured to play badly. That's just the way it is. Goerges actually is very good. Can't say anything about the match because I haven't seen it, but I guess the German girl is just hitting Safina off the court. She's well capable of doing that. She's got cracking forehand and can blast some winners, too. Was counting on the fact that she would be tired, the same as Kleybanova and Petrova (sick as much as anything). Those two both lasted their respective matches and made me some profit, considering somebody had to cover the cost or poor Lu and now Safina.

[rokasar]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October I really like Dolgopolov -4 handicap against the average challenger player Recouderc. Got it at 1.93 but price is dropping fast and now it's 1.91 at pinnacle. They both are clay court players but Dolgo's had some great experience this year on hard and he's just few classes above frenchman. Can't see nothing except easy win for this rasing star. I'm looking at this like it is a gift from bookies so grab it fast because i think price will drop a lot.

[Cornell]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October

Sport	Tennis
Event	duardo Struvay vs. Riccardo Ghedin
Selection	Ghedin
Strength	10/10
Date	27/09/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Paddy Power @ 1.83
Reasoning	Well, Eduardo Struvay is a young new player who do not possess too much experience, it is true that he is playing at home and that should be an advantage but, most of his tournaments are in his own country Columbia, so IMO his preparatioon is not special for events like these. Today Eduardo will play against Riccardo Ghedin, the italian player is a player much more experienced, he has participated in more important tournaments where the level of tennis is different. Riccardo has lost from Decoud, a difficult opponent in a tight game, then he had some real chances to take the victory but wasn't to be in the end, maybe this could be the reason for why we still have these nice odds on his side. Riccardo showed some nice tennis certain here at Cali, his form looked ok and that is all about here, he is just better and more experienced player than Eduardo who still lacks a lot of expereince. Good Luck!

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October 4/7 today. Really disgusted with Safina, Rezai overs missed out by 1 game. Vinci made my day :)

[jafra]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October I played over 20,5 and one bookmaker resolved my ticket as won I save the result 6:2 7:5 Anybody knows something or is it mistake by bookmaker?

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October

I played over 20,5 and one bookmaker resolved my ticket as won I save the result 6:2 7:5 Anybody knows something or is it mistake by bookmaker?

Should be a mistake by bookie. However, they will correct it anyway, I guess. It's always the case.

[jafra]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October But regretably its not a big amount :( If it was big amount I would never come back to that bookie ant that would be it :D

[Cornell]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October

port	Tennis
Event	Kaia Kanepi v Shahar Peer
Selection	Peer
Strength	10/10
Date	28/09/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.01
Reasoning	Well, a really impressive run from Kaia Kanepi's side as she did showed some very nice results. First of all I have to mentionate that there are no doubts her real great form recently, she improved her level and that is a visible fact, but behind all these aspects there is another fact, the most important one which is the class difference. Kaia Kanepi is a player who can hit very nice winners as she possess a really good forehand, but her movement and her backhand are not at the same level. Today she will play against Shahar Peer, a player much more complete than Kanepi, the difference can be seen if to compare certain the deffensive skills which are goes more on Peer's side. Kanepi is just a overrated player at the moment, she has won the title at Palermo and has defeated good players at US Open. Speaking about the tournament from Palermo I have to say that there wasn't at least one really difficult opponent besides Pennetta who purely didn't played then her tennis. About Jankovic and Wickmayer from US Open I will say the story was very similar like with Pennetta. So, in other word Kanepi is just overrated due to her nice performance against not in form players, today she will play against Peer and another really diificult task is waiting her cause Peer is purely better player than Kanepi from many points of view. Nice value. Good Luck!

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October Lots of matches that have caught my eye in Tuesday's program. Once again 5 matches in Tokyo. 1) Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova -3.5 AH vs Katerina Bondarenko. 1.88 @ Pinnacle (8/10) Quite surprised to see odds for this match. I guess Bondarenko wouldn't be rated this high hadn't she demolished Garrigues. But I'm not reading much into that match. The Spanish player has not won a match in ages and is rubbish atm. -3.5 games on Pavly is as good offer as you could possibly get here. I reckon Bondarenko could be humiliated here and she definitely has got smaller chance of getting something out of Anastasia than Cibulkova did. Should be easy one for Pavly. 2) Svetlana Kuznetsova vs Andrea Petkovic. Over 21 games. 1.85 @ Nordicbet (7/10) Over all over this one. Kuznetsova generally speaking is one of the most unpredictable players who struggles closing out matches. Today she plays Petkovic who can be quite similar to the Russian. Taking overs here being encouraged by H2H stats. They have played 3 times and all 3 matches went full distance with Kuzy winning both matches on clay and Petkovic the only one on hard which in fact was in this tournament last year, also 2nd round. 3) Vera Zvonareva -5.5 AH vs Sara Errani. 1.83 @ Bet365 (5/10) Undecided here between handicap and unders. There's a half game difference. Taking handicap. Here's why - Zvonareva will have her first match after loss in the US Open final. It might take her some time to get going but the end result anyway should convincing win. Errani struggles big time against big hitters and unless she can maintain high 1st serve percentage she will be done in no time. Zvonareva has crushed Errani both times they've played. Like I've said unders are good option, too. 4) Ana Ivanovic to beat Marion Bartoli. 1.85 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Ana was impressive against Kleybanova yesterday. She didn't face a single break point which is quite surprising, don't think I can recall another occasion like this. She has beaten Bartoli 3 times out of 4 and should have enough confidence and power to get another win. Odds are quite juicy and I for once can't stay away from backing Ana to win. 5) Coco Vandeweghe to beat Aravane Rezai. 3.00 @ William Hill (4/10) Unless Coco will be a bit tired after qualies she is going to have a real crack at a shock result here. Well, it wouldn't be a shock to me. Happy to oppose Rezai here, not only because I won't ever again (never say never) back her but because I really believe Vandeweghe has got a real chance. Saw here not so lo ago in San Diego. She can serve very well and forehand is awesome. Net play needs massive improvement. I think she should be able to hold a lot more easier than Rezai who will definitely have her ups and downs like she always have. I also believe that Coco won't have problems coping with this match mentally as she has already beaten Rezai once before. It was a 3 set win in ITF tournament in Las Vegas in 08. Games or set handicap, especially the later is also a good option.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October And couple matches in Bangkok... 1) Jarkko Nieminen -4.5 AH vs Danai Udomchoke. 1.85 @ Nordicbet (8/10) This is THE gift of the day. Udomchoke is something like Andreas Vinciguerra. They both play only like one tournament per year and if Vinci can do something serious in Bastad then Udomchoke is terrible. Playing Nieminen on hard courts will not help him. This match will be over even before it starts. Total of 21 games is a joke as well. I'm preferring handicap though in a case of slow start by Jarkko. Funny enough Nieminem crushed UdomChoke in their only previous meeting which of course was in this even back in 2003. Jarkko won 6-4, 6-1. Can imagine something quite similar today. 2) Ricardo Mello to beat Rainer Schuettler. 2.10 @ Stan James (6/10) Bet against Schuettler as much as anything here. The German player has shown in the past that he really doesn't have any decent motivation at this stage of the season. Gulbis is waiting in the 2nd round so not much to look forward to either. Schuettler will give up if he loses the first set, so Mello basically just needs to win the first set. Interesting fact: the Brazilian leads H2H 2-0 against the German, so there's a psychological advantage for him as well.

[Deksii]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October I have something for fun,please somebody tell me when will played their matches Tomic and Istomin?

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October One game away from overs in Rezai yesterday, thats the way it goes sometimes. Still it's the right play IMO and will try it again versus Vandeweghe. Vandeweghe vs Rezai OVER 20.5 games @ 1.833 (Pinnacle:5/10) Vandeweghe looks in better shape to do something here than Hercog was. She is having one of those weeks again and could be dangerous here....beaten Garbin, and Groth in 2 in qualifiers and Zakapolova in 2 in round one. She can be bad at times but has quite a big game and I'm backing her to hang with the inconsistent ball basher Rezai.Also beat Rezai in 3 sets on hard back in 08 so she can compete. GL!

[rokasar]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October

I really like Dolgopolov -4 handicap against the average challenger player Recouderc. Got it at 1.93 but price is dropping fast and now it's 1.91 at pinnacle. They both are clay court players but Dolgo's had some great experience this year on hard and he's just few classes above frenchman. Can't see nothing except easy win for this rasing star. I'm looking at this like it is a gift from bookies so grab it fast because i think price will drop a lot.

More tha a comfortable win for Dolgo. It was my bet of the week. Nice morning. :cheers

[milano01]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October damn was going to take bartoli then i read some stupid preview backing ivanovic so i didnt take her, so typical :puke

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October

More tha a comfortable win for Dolgo. It was my bet of the week. Nice morning. :cheers

Had a piece of this myself at nice odds of 2.07 rokasar. Nice call :ok

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October Any thoughts on Del Potro vs Rochus chaps? I've been mulling it over and can't get away from Rochus +3 games. Don't think Del Potro will come into his first match in ages and find it easy. Rochus is a sparrer and likes a quicker surface - only fear is if Del Potro gets his forehand going.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October Would easily be Rochus outright or no bet for me. If Del Potro gets going, -3 is nothing. However, if he is rusty, Rochus will have no problems at all.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October I'd just stay away from it and see what he's made of at the moment. Not having played competitive match in months is not easy, even for the best players in the world. In form he should get rid of Rochus, now I'm not sure what to expect from him. Could be anything.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 27 September - 3 October Ivanovic poor today (didn't see of course), Mello made tons of unforced errors, was expecting better stuff from him. And Coco made may day :clap Rezai once again incredible stupidity. Good day anyway with Nieminen still to come.