Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Most likely Contador and Schleck will attack early on the HC climb, and this will blow open the race and doom the break. However, the odds on Alberto aren't great so a few more small bets on men who might just have enough climbing ability to win from a break Jani Brajkovic @ 61 Sportsbet Caisse will almost certainly put a man in the break and as Radioshack are in a team classification battle with them they will have to mark any move. Brajkovic would be the best choice as he is far enough down to not be chased, but at the same time has the abilities to survive to the end, as he showed at the recent dauphine. Christophe Moreau @ 151 Centrebet Caisse will look to put a man in the break and it is quite possible Moreau will be the choice. With 50 KOTM points on offer he could put himself back in contention with a winning break and he has already said he is chasing one last moment of glory before retiring. Garate @ 81 Centrebet Garate won the queen stage in last year's tour from a break so he clearly has the ability to stay away til the end. Rabobank haven't been too active in the breaks as they have two GC riders in Gesink and Menchov, so Garate might not attack. However, he certainly could win from a break, something that, due to the difficult profile, very few non GC riders can do. Odds are also quite decent. Tony Martin @ 151 Centrebet In the stage that Garate won last year Tony Martin came a close second, something he may have improved on had he not been working so hard for Cav in earlier stages. HTC don't have any realistic GC threat and may look to put a man in the break in the bid to get another stage win. Rogers may still be a little too close in standings to be given enough time to make a break work, but Martin is well down.

[9coconuts]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Still looking at KOTM, I've had a little nibble on Luis-Leon Sanchez @ 110 on Betfair. He's 60 points behind Charteau and only 5 minutes back in the GC, but if he gets some big points today he might get interested. He's maybe just far enough back in the GC, has points on the board, and has the ability to really outclass Charteau to the tune of 60+ points.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Today's finish certainly suits Sanchez so it is possible he will try something. 40pts at the top of the final climb so you never know. Don't think it will be his priority though. On to today's stage, where I think the break should succeed. Alberto seems to descend better than Andy and Sammy Sanchez descends better than both of them. Lance Armstrong @ 34 Betstar Lance lost a significant amount of time yesterday and may well aim for today's break. It's been reported that he has been surveying the descent for today's stage and with the team classification also a priority it would not surprise me to see Lance try something today. Michael Rogers @ 151 TAB Rogers is now 20mins down overall and well and truly out of the running for a top 10 finish. He may now turn his focus to a stage victory and I think today is a good chance. The finish is a rather long descent which would help a break hold any advantage it held over the summit and perhaps take a tiny bit of motivation away from Andy and Alberto's team to gun for the stage victory. Matt Lloyd @ 126 TAB Lloyd often looks for a break and today's stage profile is well suited to his abilities. His team are without a win so far and I would expect someone from his team to go for the break. Given Aerts has tried and failed a few times, Lloyd might get his chance today. Christophe Moreau @ 36 Paddy Power One of the final chances Moreau will have of a stage win. His team will generally look to put a man in the break and of the most active of their riders so far, Moreau is the man with the best chance of taking the win, as I believe Kiryienka should have some tired legs after two days of attacking. JM Garate @ 67 Sportingbet Garate tried for the break yesterday but unfortunately his initial move was brought back. Rabobank are still without a win and with a descent finish it is possible that the spaniard will be given the license to attack by his team in a bid to open up their account.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Gutted for Andy. Made a brilliant attack.

[meatman]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July yeh gutted for the lad :(

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July I think with the long stretch of flat at the end today is a prime breakaway stage, so going with quite a few: Rafael Valls @ 90 Betfair Valls has been quite aggressive on some of the mountain stages and today should suit him. He lost over 25mins yesterday so it is quite possible he was conserving energy for an effort today. George Hincapie @ 150 Betfair Quite possibly George's last tour. Though he isn't the best climber in the world he should be able to hang on in a break, particularly with 40-50km of flat towards the end. Very experienced rider with a reasonable sprint, so could win from a break. Linus Gerdemann @ 70 Betfair Linus has been very quiet so far. Almost uncharacteristically so for him. Today is probably the last chance a break has of really winning in the mountains, so if he has something left to give he should try and use it today. Lost over 25mins yesterday. Alexander Kolobnev @ 140 Betfair Katusha have been a little more active in recent days though mainly through Brutt. Ivanov went yesterday and Kolobnev is just about the only other rider on that team who I think can stay in contact in a mountain break. Gerraint Thomas @ 330 Betfair Sky team said the other day that Thomas will be one of their main candidates for a mountain stage break. He should just about be able to stay together in a break and his strong time trial ability and track background mean he'd have a strong chance of winning from the break if they came to the line together. Ruben Perez @ 330 Betfair His team missed the break yesterday and will look to rectify that today. Given he has been very active so far this tour he is a good choice to be their representative today. Michael Rogers @ 110 Betfair Rogers has said he will try to look for a break if he has the legs. His form is a little down so he might not have the energy to go for it but he's a solid climber and decent time trialist, so if he does manage to get in a break he has a good chance of winning from it. Sylvester Szmyd @ 330 Betfair Liquigas have been disappointing so far this tour and today is a good chance for them to get in the break and have a go at the stage win. Szmyd is the best of their non GC climbers and given the other support riders aren't great winners Szmyd is my chosen Liquigas rider for today. Just deciding on a couple more...

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Wiggins @ 200 Betfair Wiggins has said he will look to race up the road rather than just ride home and finish 20th. He is now well down in GC terms and should be free to fly today. He is still a solid climber and his track and time trial strengths could serve him well on the run home Tony Martin @ 67 Centrebet Martin has looked for the break a fair bit last week but so far this week he has been quiet. He has been finishing well down on each stage so his energy levels would be quite high and given the time trial will be a target of his it would make more sense to go for the break today rather than the queen Pyrenean stage that is closer to the TT stage. Pierrick Fedrigo @ 34 Betchoice This is a similar stage to the won Fedrigo won last year, with a few climbs early on before 40-50km of flat roads to the finish. His team always look for the breaks and with Rolland and Voeckler the men the last two days I expect Fedrigo to the first choice today. Wanted to take Lars Boom no odds anywhere, so I may just jump if he goes on to win

[Jenspm]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Yellow Jersey winner Andy Schleck @ 5.9 - betfair After that pathetic showing from Contador yesterday (a disgrace, really), I think Schleck is one-up in the mental fight. I've never seen him so angry before, and the look on his face was unmistakable - he wanted revenge. I think he'll relentlessly attack the spaniard in what's left of the mountains. Everyone talks about the difference in tempo skills between the two, but look what Schleck managed in the downhill part of yesterday's race - only lost a few seconds to Samuel Sanchez, who is among the best in the business. Who's to say he can't squeeze out a bit extra in the time trial in pure contador-rage? The fact that Contador actually raced away from Andy yesterday is a clear sign imo - he's scared, and not confident he'll win. He was boo'd at the yellow jersey ceremony yesterday, and definately won't be liked by the rest of the field. And being hated by the field is a nightmare in road racing. This may be from the heart, because atm there is nothing I want more than Andy to crush that dirty spaniard, but I believe there is value in these odds.

[litost]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July My friend you may or not like contador reaction after Schleck chain problem but label it as a disgrace is way from right only thing most people does not like about it is Contador talks afterwards ...... most big ex pro cyclist say it is absolutely nothing wrong with what he did it may or not be full of sportmanship but it is part of ciclying .... so keep the fan talk off from betting imo :ok

[litost]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July My friend you may or not like contador reaction after Schleck chain problem but label it as a disgrace is way from right only thing most people does not like about it is Contador talks afterwards ...... most big ex pro cyclist say it is absolutely nothing wrong with what he did it may or not be full of sportmanship but it is part of ciclying .... so keep the fan talk off from betting imo :ok

[goochrules]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Sorry to say this Jenspm but what he did was fine all of these riders cheat so its well within the rules, i had a friend who stopped riding tour because he was forced to take p. enhancing drugs at certain times , its a disgrace

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Well this is annoying. On Cunego and Armstrong yesterday and today is the day they are not only in a break, but just a 3 man one at that. And Cunego now too far down the KOTM standings for that to benefit me :wall

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

Wiggins @ 200 Betfair Pierrick Fedrigo @ 34 Betchoice This is a similar stage to the won Fedrigo won last year, with a few climbs early on before 40-50km of flat roads to the finish. His team always look for the breaks and with Rolland and Voeckler the men the last two days I expect Fedrigo to the first choice today. Wanted to take Lars Boom no odds anywhere, so I may just jump if he goes on to win

:clap:clap:clap Good one! Was looking for his win entire alps, but seems he aims to make his shot on exact this stage!

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Thanks mate. The stage Casar won was a similar sort of profile that he has attacked on many times before. As valuable as it is to observe time losses and infer energy conservation and try and match stages with abilities, perhaps it's this kind of information (profile type that riders have previously attacked on) that is indeed the most valuable. Rest day tomorrow and then the big stage up the Tourmalet. Should hopefully be a show down between Andy and Alberto, and though I think Alberto would like to win the stage, I wonder if maybe he wont gift it to Andy as some sort of apology...

[Labrador]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Good call on Fedrigo, Crouchy:ok and thank you ogii:D for your post about Fedrigo on 2nd July that prompted me to back him to win a Stage.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

Rest day tomorrow and then the big stage up the Tourmalet. Should hopefully be a show down between Andy and Alberto' date=' and though I think Alberto would like to win the stage, I wonder if maybe he wont gift it to Andy as some sort of apology...[/quote'] I don't think Alberto will gift it. I think Andy will win, because he is in better form. He gained at least 20 secs yesterday when he fixed his technical problem. He should win back the yellow jersey tomorrow and then lose it on the TTs.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

I don't think Alberto will gift it. I think Andy will win' date=' because he is in better form. He gained at least 20 secs yesterday when he fixed his technical problem. He should win back the yellow jersey tomorrow and then lose it on the TTs.[/quote'] He gained 20 seconds but it was a different type of mountain and not the same sort of scenario. I would not assume that just because Andy made some time on that mountain that he will drop Contador up the next one. Remember Contador dropped him the other day when Rodriguez won. That said, Andy could very well gap Contador on the climb. For me it is touch and go, but on the times when he can't, I think there's a possibility that Alberto would not contest the stage win if they came over the line together. IMO it's a mitigating factor and a very good reason to back Andy Schleck, providing that the odds offered are the same as they have been on previous stages (which is Generally Alberto 1.95 and Schleck 7)

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Contador seems to suffer in head to head battles with Andy, for sure is not in the same amazing form, when with just a go-go, he dropped all his rivals with ease. On the Top finish in two days i think that some of the guys from 3-th to 10-th position may benefit (I see Menchov here as the best probability). We see that all the favorites teams are very passive in order to chase the breakway. Saxo guys suffered a lot with so much work in earlier stages. Astana's gregars do not give the power on. But now it probably will be very different. For sure there will be a breakway probably from the fist Cat 4 climb with Charteau and Moreau. Probably BBox will put some more of their guys in order to help Carteau, expect at least two from Voecler, Fedrigo and Rolland. Probably Katusha will have also 1-2 guys in order to secure some hand for Rodriguez before the last climb. We didn't see noting special from Egoi Martinez this year. The stage perfectly suits for him and i expect from him to be in early breakway for probably a late hand for Sammy Sanchez. My favorit for a stage win here is Garate. Won the same profile stage last year and as Egoi will be very much in help for a probably strike by Denis Menchov. The Russian still didn't put a very strong solo attack this year. He knows that must win some seconds before the TT if he wants to secure a podium win. It's must beat Contador for Andy Schlek and his entire team. I am sure Rijs will put ahead with a killing tempo on the Cat 1 climbs Spartacus, Voight, Matty Breshel, O'Gredy and Fuglsang. This is the only chance for an overall win. Schleck needs at least 1.30 and a TT of his life to overcome Contador during timetrail. Andy for sure will go for a stage win. Two last things, the only time Tourmalet was a stage finish it was won by a Frenchman in mid 70-s The last time Tourmalet climbing started from Pau the first one to climb the peak was Remi Di Gregorio, another Frenchman and i can't remember a tour with so much French wins :) Will wait for the odds, but for sure will take Remi di Gregorio (now 151 with PP)and Garate (76 with PP) before the start and probably will wait during the break to take better odds for Andy and Menchov.

[BillyHills]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Just to say, a terrific thread guys:clap

[mileni4uk]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

Just to say' date=' a terrific thread guys:clap[/quote'] Do you watch the Tour, Graham?

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Egoi Martniez Betfair 170 Garate 76 Paddy (80 avaliable at betfair) Remi Di Gregorio 240 betfair Reasoning see above. The odds for Contador and Andy leveled at bookies since yesterday, when they were 1.9-20 for Contador and 3.5-4.00 for Andy. Would like to take Menchov around 25-26 at Betfair sometime at the day :)

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July I almost took the 5.5 available on Andy but figured if Paddy would offer this others would go 6. That was a dumb dumb decision :spank Andy Schleck @ 3.35 Betfair Definitely not the odds I should have taken this at but still think he should be the favourite. He is climbing very well and needs to attack today. Contador on the other hand does not have to attack and can afford to ride in on Andy's wheel. Obviously if this happens the spaniard could take the stage win but I'm not convinced he'd do so after already taking advantage once. Robert Gesink over Carlos Sastre @ 1.95 Sportingbet In every mountain stage so far Gesink has finished of Sastre. Whilst Sastre is finding better legs this climb would suit Gesink more than the previous mountain top finishes. Of course, if Sastre were to attack, something he should have latitude to do, he could end up ahead of Gesink on the stage, but for me, this is the only way he will finish ahead of Gesink, and the probability of this is far less than 50% IMO. Going to have a few breakaway bets just in case the stage pans out like last year, but not matched yet

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Garate @ 80 Betfair Garate won the final mountain stage last year in the tour and I wouldn't rule out another attempt here. He hasn't done a great deal of attacking so far and though he may be asked to help Menchov the fact is if he is one of the very few riders who could win from a break on today's stage. Given his aforementioned tour record he can't be ignored in any set of breakaway bets. Rafael Valls Ferri @ 250 Betfair Has been very active so far and today we clearly go over this man's terrain. If he gets in the break he may well have the legs to go on and claim the win. Can't be ignored at these odds. Sylvester Szmyd @ 250 Betfair We saw on the last stage what kind of damage Szmyd is capable of. Basso is now out of the running and quite ill, so if anyone attacks from Liquigas it should be Szmyd (Roman wont be allowed to go in an initial break). Like Garate he is one of very few non GC riders capable of winning today and can't be ignored. Christophe Le Mevel @ 180 Betfair Is a very strong climber on his day as he proved last year with a top ten finish overall. He has been riding very poorly in the last couple of stages but coming off the rest day there is a possibility he will have the legs to try something today. It is the last chance for him to arrest a poor tour and I expect him to try today. Also had some small bets on Tony Martin (400 Betfair) and Damien Monier (420 Betfair)

[9coconuts]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Why is Charteau trading at 1.07 in KOTM with only the Tourmalet left to climb? That's the last place to get mountain points in the tour, isn't it? Have I missed something? Obviously the leaders are going to charge up it and Moreau won't be able to stay with them. Charteau's chances of winning the polka dot jersey are over 99%, surely.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July He could ride behind an Eusaldel rider and get caught in the crossfire. Similarly, he could get caught for doping (The last two KOTM winners have either been done for doping or under investigation for doping)

[9coconuts]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

He could ride behind an Eusaldel rider and get caught in the crossfire. Similarly' date=' he could get caught for doping (The last two KOTM winners have either been done for doping or under investigation for doping)[/quote'] They pay out straight after the tour though. The chances of a doping DQ coming in the next 3 days is not high.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July No, it's almost negligible. Plus he'd have to be doping, which seems unlikely given he's not really climbing particularly well. Still, have you seen those Euskaldel riders fall over? Much harder to avoid them!

[kenrosewall]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Really need your help guys, and am very impressed with the level of knowledge on this board. At the start of the tour I backed Rodriguez to finish Top 6 @ 44's. Unfortunately he is just short of the mark going in to the time trial (well, the only stage that any time differences will occur) and his only realistic hope of making the Top 6 is overtaking VDB or Gesink. My question is how do these three stack up in the TT. I see VDB and Gesink both finished ahead in the prologue but am wary to make comparisons based on that. Last year VDB did quite well in the 40km TT overall, however Gesink didn't make it that far and Rodriguez didn't start the tour. As it stands, I can lay Rodriguez around the $3 to $3.50 mark so do you think I should do this? Or is he any chance of pulling off a better TT than either of the other two? In addition, I was on Hushovd for the green at the start of the tour for 7's. Should I lay him here or can he carry it all the way to Paris? My only other bet I went reasonably big on at the start was Andy to win w/o Contador, and I'm happy to play that one out. Advice greatly appreciated.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July There are two more sprints to come. Both of them had two intermediate sprints. For sure Lampre will fight for Petachi with all their forces, cos this is there objective after Cunego failed. 4 points is noting with 2 sprints to follow. Petacchi showed far better sprint qualities this year and had a team to make the train, while Huschovd is fighting by himself. It's better to Lay IMO. I would stay with Rodrigez. This year at Vuelta a Pais Vasco he showed not a bad TT on 22 km even finishing ahead of Kloeden. He seems to be in better shape in Pyrinees. As for Gesink he will suffer a lot in such a long TT. With a handycap of 22 seconds i would bet on Rodriguez vs Gesink for equal odds. Congratulations for the nice prebets that you made!

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July If the green jersey comes down to two sprints I'd back Pettachi all day. To win, Hushovd needs for Ale Jet to crash or be expelled for doping (he's apparently under investigation). The latter is highly unlikely to happen before the tour ends. Whatever your position on Hushovd is, I'd swap it with Pettachi. As for the time trial, I feel that at this stage TT ability counts for less. I remember in 2008 that Cancellara came nowhere in one of the TTs and it was Stefan Schumacher (later done for doping) and Kim Kirchen who had the strong performances. That's because it is often about the rider with the freshest legs (as you saw when Sastre held on to take yellow ahead of Evans, whose supposed TT ability supercedes Sastre's by a margin considerably greater than the one that separated them in that decisive TT). In my opinion, Rodriguez is considerably fresher than Gesink, and looks to be riding stronger. That said, it is naive to think it is just between those two. Ryder Hesjedal is a better time trialist than both and also appears to have reasonably strong legs. I'd look to make Rodriguez my most profitable result with a middle profit position on Hesjedal. I'd be happy to oppose Gesink.