Cramer Posted January 9, 2010 Share Posted January 9, 2010 Some tournaments starting tonight and all finish next Saturday because of Australian Open. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cramer Posted January 9, 2010 Author Share Posted January 9, 2010 Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January Sport Tennis Event Iveta Benesova v Anabel Medina Garrigues Selection Iveta Benesova Strength 10/10 Date 10/01/2010 Bookmaker/Price William Hill @ 1.83 (Back) Reasoning I'll make this my first play of the week at a solid price. AMG had quite poor form int he second half of last year, where she just had 1 good week in Seoul. But also she had a lot of tame losses where she played very poorly. Start of this year she lost round 1 to Rybarikova 6-2 6-3 so doesn't sppear she's found form again. Benesova lost first match last week to Petkovic in 3 sets but Petkovic is very promising player and played well later in the week. Main reason I like this bet is Benesovas record in this tournament, having 2 semi finals and 2 finals in 5 visits. The other time she lost round 1 but did win 3 matches in qualifying. So she clearly likes this tournament and I'll take her to win this first match. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cramer Posted January 9, 2010 Author Share Posted January 9, 2010 Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January Sport Tennis Event Lucie Safarova v Kateryna Bondarenko Selection Lucie Safarova Strength 10/10 Date 10/01/2010 Bookmaker/Price Boylesports @ 1.57 (Back) Reasoning Safarova looks pretty good here. She's got the all round bigger game and definately the bigger serve. She played pretty well last week getting a couple of wins and taking a set off Clijsters. First match of the season for K Bondarenko and she's lost first round here the 2 times she's played this tournament. Should be a solid favourite here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cramer Posted January 10, 2010 Author Share Posted January 10, 2010 Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January Sport Tennis Event ATP Auckland Outright Selection Juan Carlos Ferrero E/W (1/2, 1-2) (Each-Way) Strength 5/10 Date 16/01/2010 Bookmaker/Price VCBet @ 6.50 (Back) Reasoning I wasn't planning an outright bet here, but I just looked at the draw and it is seriously good for JCF. To get to the semis he has bye, a qualifier (qualifying really weak in this tournament, it could be Dan Evans lol!) and possibly Montanes, a qualifier or a poor New Zeland wildcard. Considering the players in the rest of the draw that is seriously good. Semi final likely against Robredo, Isner or Monaco. Suppose he'd be slight outsider against Robredo but Tommy has a pretty tough route to the semis. Bottom half of the draw is tough to call, but the E/W part of this bet looks really appealing. Ferrero finished last year quite poorly but I think you could put that down to a lot of tennis in the summer where he was playing really well. He also had some toughish draws at the end of the year. Hopefully he's had a decent rest and can come out firing, as he can play extremely well in this part of the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAmGooner Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January Cuevas to beat Llodra @ 8/11 Have to side with Cuevas here. Llodra was bagelled by Levy last week and looked out of sorts. Have to question his desire these days, only seems up for home tournaments. Cuevas is typically clay-courter but can play on hard aswell. Pretty good in rallies. Unless Llodra dramatically improves this could be tough for him, his serve and volley not as effective if he serves as poorly as his last match. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornell Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January Sport Tennis Event Thomaz Bellucci - Marco Chiudinelli Selection Chiudinelli Strength 10/10 Date 01/11/2010 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.55 (Back) Reasoning Well, some better results made already Thomaz Bellucci to be favourite against Marco Chiudinelli. IMO we have pure value here as first of all Chiudinelli possess more experience on hard and also very important is that Bellucci's form is not better at the moment, he just has been invlolved longer in the previous tournament while Chiudinelli had to play against Davydenko. There are no doubts about Bellucci's great potential as he is a player with a lot of talent, but he lacks the experience certain on faster surfaces. The brazilian can play very consistent tennis from the baseline and on clay he should be the favourite against Chiudinelli, but here is hard and the situation is different. Bellucci is just overrated against Chiudinelli at the moment but there are no serious reasons for that as some better results on the paper can't change the essential things. Good Luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornell Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January Sport Tennis Event Feliciano Lopez - Richard Gasquet Selection Lopez Strength 10/10 Date 01/11/2010 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 3.14 (Back) Reasoning First game here at Sydney for both players and you never can be too conceited about anyone, but looking at these great odds as against the class difference I see some nice value on Feliciano's side. The spaniard didn't impressed too much at the end of the last season but this is already another new season, he had a long pause for preparation. On the other hand Gasquet has already played three games this season and have to mentionate that he still didn't proved something special, no signs of his best tennis, closed to his real level. Anyway, this tournament could be better for the frenchman but in the same time it could be for Feliciano, you'll never know, certain is one thing that these odds are too exaggerated as once again I repeat that the difference in class is not so meaningful here and form is not an advantage for Gasquet. Good Luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAmGooner Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January Seriously thinking about Leonardo Mayer to beat Andreev. Andreev has been horrible for a while and remember watching Mayer beat him late last year before pushing Murray in the same tournament. Gut is telling me not to do it though. Have to think about this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cramer Posted January 10, 2010 Author Share Posted January 10, 2010 Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January Sport Tennis Event Vera Zvonareva v Elena Vesnini Selection Elena Vesnina Strength 10/10 Date 11/01/2010 Bookmaker/Price Coral @ 3.25 (Back) Reasoning This seems worth a chance. Zvonareva is struggling with her ankle again. She had to pull out of a match in exhibition last week and said she couldn't push 100% in the match she did play. Not sure if she will play this match, and if she does retirement during the match is a distinct possibility. So take this at Coral who pay out after 1 ball. Vesnina is a very capable player with a big game but like so many other women has mental issues! She was awful against Cornet last week but could have an easy path through here if Vera isn't 100%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cramer Posted January 10, 2010 Author Share Posted January 10, 2010 Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January Sport Tennis Event Potito Starace v Frederico Gil Selection Frederico Gil Strength 10/10 Date 11/01/2010 Bookmaker/Price Stan James @ 2.20 (Back) Reasoning This match in interesting. Starace beat Gil last week in Doha where Gil made absolutely no effort, losing 6-0 6-2 to Starace and 6-2 6-0 in the doubles. He picked up his cheques and came to qualifying here, where he's won 3 matches including a very decent win over Dent. No idea what he was doing last week but in Sydney it looks like he's here to play. Gil started the match last week at around 1.60 and now he is out to 2.20, which seems like a very reasonable price. Sport Tennis Event Yaroslava Shvedova v Carla Suarez Navarro Selection Yaroslava Shvedova Strength 10/10 Date 11/01/2010 Bookmaker/Price VCBet @ 1.66 (Back) Reasoning I like Schvedova, think she's a really underrated player at the moment. She played well in the Hopman Cup and should be a good favourite here. I said last week I don't like Suarez Navarro on hard courts, and I watched the match against Pennetta and it is clear why. She simply doesn't have the time for her big swings and will make a lot of errors. At a huge price she might be worth a go in coming weeks as some days she'll make everything, but at this sort of price she should be opposed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornell Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January Sport Tennis Event Leonardo Mayer v Igor Andreev Selection Mayer Strength 10/10 Date 01/11/2010 Bookmaker/Price Bwin @ 1.95 (Back) Reasoning Well, a not impressive start of the new season for Igor Andreev, his current form didn't looked good and I think certain this aspect will make all the difference here. Andreev will play against Leonardo Mayer, a player who surely can compete at high level tennis as he possess a lot of talent. Mayer started in power this new season as he has already played two games here at Sydney where he has showed some stable tennis, he defeated Del Bonis and the american Ram in a very convincing way. Speaking about class, Mayer as I have said is a very talented player who could prove this season another level of tennis, one more closer to his real potential, but this we'll see only in time. Certain in this game is that Andreev didn't impressed with his form while Mayer looked exactly contrary, all in all there are clear advantages for the Argentinian to take this one. Good Luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smegmaniac Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January i had the same initial instincts as you gooner about the mayer match!! he's certainly a player with promise and power but he's by no means the punters secret weapon...since beating blake in d french and pushing haas all d way...he's very much been on the bookies radar and if anything now i think he's a bit over-rated!! true enough andreev is in poor form but i still think he's got more game than mayer and if this match was in the first round of the australian open i'd be lumping on andreev at an underdog price....he always raises his game 4 d slams! but i wouldnt trust him this week and good luck if u do decide 2 go with mayer! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smegmaniac Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January yang evans anyone? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smegmaniac Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January i have 2 say i fancy yang against evans at 10-11 wit bet365! since winning a grass court challenger last summer there has been some hype about british teenager daniel evans as maybe the next big thing!!i havent seen him play but allegedly he has a lot of talent! however, he could barely win a match since that grass court challenger for the rest of the season and was often on the end of hidings ....just on the challenger circuit!! he probably still has 2 grow a bit and get power which isnt as necessary 4 the grass 2 compete wit the big boys! yang has some good form...he has beaten dustin ,brown,r ghedin and most recently jan minar in qualifier matches and those guys are well established challenger players comfortable with hard courts ...no slouches! he lost 2 robin haase then in 2 tight sets! i just cant resist a bet on him coz he seems in good form and i think evans being made favourite is down 2 the fact that he's british and the hype i suppose! its probably a dodgy match 2 bet on and i'm not ignoring the fact that evans hammered m daniel in qualifying...but its just not enough to justify favouritism in this one so i cant resist the bet! 1PT WIN T.H YANG TO BEAT DANIEL EVANS AT 10-11 BET365! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smegmaniac Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January another price i really like is sania mirza to beat alicia molik at evens with bet365! Sania season was marred by injury last year (as was moliks) ! but molik really has been out of action for a long time! and she's way past her best now at 28!mirza has a lot of talent...very powerful groundstrokes off both wings! on her facebook page she said she's feeling fit and excited about the new season...which is a good sign! she bet promising youngster voegele in a tight match in d first round at brisbane and then got beaten by schiavone easily (but schiavone alwasy beats mirza-kinda like a bogie player for sania!) molik beat makarova but makarova is a very inconsistent player and then molik got hammered by kim i think in d next round! mirza had a 2-0 head to head record against alicia! my instinct is that she is in better shape over all and i'm just surprised she's underdog! TIP-1PT WIN SANIA MIRZA TO BEAT ALICIA MOLIK AT EVENS BET365! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arantxa Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January Hi @all great stuff here as always. I created an Outright "System" for this year and want to blog it here. It´s not really a system though, just made an excel sheet that takes every match till the final into account, so also the "unexpected" value of a selection.... To maybe explain this a bit one could mention the tournament last week where Söderling went out to Ginepri 1st round. Many people ( i used to do it too ) look at a draw like this: P.e. for Wawrinka Outright Ok Wawrinka will face Bopanna where he should be 85% Favorite, then he will likely face Ruseel ( 80% favo ) and then Berrer ( 75% favo ), in the semis he will play Söderling ( 40% Outsider ) and in the final maybe Cilic ( also 40% Outsider ) --> then you calculate 0,85*0,80*0,75*0,4*0,4= 0,08--> Odds around 12 should be value. BUT you underestimate the fact, that Söderling could lose first round!! or 2nd round!! or quarters!! BEFORE facing Wawrinka... So my system calculates in a nutshell if you have a 4 player tournament: P.e. Semis Söderling 88% Florian Mayer 12% Federer 80% Tsonga 20% I create a matrix: with probabilities for each player against each: Söderling chance against: Mayer 88% Federer 25% Tsonga 50% Mayer chance against: ( against Söderling already above 1-0,88=12%) Federer 7% Tsonga 18% Federer against: Tsonga 80% Tsonga against: already given by the 3 above Instinctically you would calculate Outright for Söderling: Beating Mayer 0,88 and then he has to beat Federer 0,25 -->Odds around @4,50 With my system it goes for a Söderling Outright: Beating Mayer 0,88*X X= Chance of Federer being in the Final (0,8)*Chance of Söderling beating Federer ( 0,25 )+ Chance of Tsonga being in the final ( 0,2 )* Chance of Söderling beating Tsonga ( 0,50 ) X=0,3 Odds for Söderling= 1/(0,88*0,3)= @3,80 So the difference of only one uncertain round is already significant and as you can imagine if you calculate the whole tournament like this, there can be found some value.... Has anybody of you thought about a similar approach yet?? Would be interesting to know for me:clap Have only done the work for Sydney yet and my system bets are: Monfils 3/10 @4,30 Hewitt 2/10 @7,25 Troicki 1,5/10 @21,25 Andreev 1/10 @23 Greetz Arantxa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arantxa Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January To resume this: Most Odds are from Pinnacle.... Bank 100 Sydney ATP: Monfils 3/10 @4,30 Hewitt 2/10 @7,25 Troicki 1,5/10 @21,25 Andreev 1/10 @23 Sydney WTA: Kuznetsova 1,5/10 @10,0 Lisicki 1/10 @34 Hobart WTA: Czink 2/10 @26 Auckland ATP: Nalbandian 1,5/10 @17 VC Ferrero 2,5/10 @6,60 Montanes 0,5/10 @41 bet365 Gicquel 1/10 @35 Staked: 17,5 Units Best of luck:cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocknRolla Posted January 11, 2010 Share Posted January 11, 2010 Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January Good luck with the system Arantaxa, lets see how it works for you, maybe you could post it in System & Strategy forum too :hope It's proved in the past that these WTA chiks aren't much profitable,still tempted by a few nice prices tonight. Like the look of the overs in Pennetas match, watched her in Auckland final where she won only five games after some impressive tennis played last week. From what i saw she was suffering some kind of illness and because of that she lost the match that easily.:unsure Can't say much for Stosur but she a decent hard courter, loves to play in Sydney and although she was defeated in R1 last year here it was a match with 34 games against first seeded Serena. 3 units @ 1,83 on over 21,5 games for me here Price on Lepchenko is in free fall atm but 2,62 is still decent i think, 3 units again. Varvara won two qual. matches here quite easily, with the big win yesterday over Baczinsky in straight sets i like to think that she still have the power to upset on more fav. in the name of Martinez S. Lepchenko is far more suited on the surface. Still not sure if i'm gonna take Dokic and Kudryavtseva in a double, really fancying their chances, may have a punt. Sorry for posting this late :ok And Atko, what happened with Stepanek. Not sure i understand eachway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocknRolla Posted January 11, 2010 Share Posted January 11, 2010 Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January :@ :@ knew it will turn this way :wall Combined Vesnina with Baghdatis in a double for two units :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPFC Posted January 11, 2010 Share Posted January 11, 2010 Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January :@ :@ knew it will turn this way :wall Combined Vesnina with Baghdatis in a double for two units :hope Has zvonareva retired ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocknRolla Posted January 11, 2010 Share Posted January 11, 2010 Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January Unfortunately yes, Vera retired. :\ void with 365 Baggy is a winner @ 1,16 :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPFC Posted January 11, 2010 Share Posted January 11, 2010 Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January Unfortunately yes, Vera retired. :\ void with 365 Baggy is a winner @ 1,16 :) Was panicking for a bit, wasn't sure whether betfair would void it, had lumped on Vera not realising. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam2009 Posted January 11, 2010 Share Posted January 11, 2010 Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January Was panicking for a bit' date=' wasn't sure whether betfair would void it, had lumped on Vera not realising.[/quote'] oi lol got back over to ours:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam2009 Posted January 11, 2010 Share Posted January 11, 2010 Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January oh and for people on here nadia petrova to beat krumm 2-0 in sets pays 2.10 on bet 365 gobble it up:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAmGooner Posted January 11, 2010 Share Posted January 11, 2010 Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January Cuevas to beat Llodra @ 8/11 Have to side with Cuevas here. Llodra was bagelled by Levy last week and looked out of sorts. Have to question his desire these days, only seems up for home tournaments. Cuevas is typically clay-courter but can play on hard aswell. Pretty good in rallies. Unless Llodra dramatically improves this could be tough for him, his serve and volley not as effective if he serves as poorly as his last match. WIN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cramer Posted January 11, 2010 Author Share Posted January 11, 2010 Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January That Vera retirement saved my night:D:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arantxa Posted January 11, 2010 Share Posted January 11, 2010 Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January To resume this: Most Odds are from Pinnacle.... Bank 100 Sydney ATP: Monfils 3/10 @4,30 Hewitt 2/10 @7,25 Troicki 1,5/10 @21,25 Andreev 1/10 @23 Sydney WTA: Kuznetsova 1,5/10 @10,0 Lisicki 1/10 @34 Hobart WTA: Czink 2/10 @26 Auckland ATP: Nalbandian 1,5/10 @17 VC Ferrero 2,5/10 @6,60 Montanes 0,5/10 @41 bet365 Gicquel 1/10 @35 Staked: 17,5 Units Best of luck:cheers Ok i posted it in the systems forum too!! Doesn´t start too good with 2 selections ( Andreev and Lisicki ) losing deep in the 3rd, and Czink going down to Dulko but for value with Lisicki one could see that Azarenka was around 10s and Lisicki around 34s, with Azarenka winning in a clear 50/50 match, so its clear where the value was? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAmGooner Posted January 11, 2010 Share Posted January 11, 2010 Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January Benneteau to beat Sela @ 8/13 Would have liked a slightly higher price here but will take it nonetheless. Benneteau finished the year in decent fashion, beating Federer in Paris before losing to Monfils. Strong serve, good in rallies. Sela had a good week in Chennai and really had chances to reach the final versus Wawrinka. Maybe not in the best shape coming into this one. Benneteau leads H2H 2-0 with one on hard-court. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAmGooner Posted January 11, 2010 Share Posted January 11, 2010 Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January Kudryavtseva to beat Medina-Garrigues @ 10/11 Think Kudryavtseva has a chance here. M-G is a good player, fairly consistent and lots of pushing play...but not exactly in great form herself over recent months. Alla has started the year pretty well, aggressive play. Lost a tight match to Bacsinszky in Brisbane but cruised through qualifiers here, beating Makarova 6-0 6-0 in last round. H2H is 3-0 in AMG' s favour and she is better ranked player but take a chance with girl who is playing well right now...if she keeps errors to a minimum there are chances here as she is serving well and hitting her shots. GL! Liking Gicquel aswell and maybe Becker over Chela but put off the latter by Chela's displays in qualifiers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atko Posted January 11, 2010 Share Posted January 11, 2010 Re: Tennis: 10th - 16th January Sydney - Peter Luczak vs Jose Acasuso: Luczak at 1.92 Both of these players are far more confident on a clay court but Luczak gets marginal preference as he's playing on home turf in Sydney and Acasuso's recent record is pretty poor. The Argentine's form has suffered with injuries and he's playing his first match of the season - Luczak played in Brisbane and was admirable in defeat to Andy Roddick. Acasuso leads the H2Hs 2-0 but he prefers a much slower surface - I think conditions favour Luczak and he's my choice to progress here. Bet strength: 2pts Sydney - Juan Ignacio Chela vs Benjamin Becker: Becker at 1.80 Chela's best days are behind him. He prefers a clay court and although he stole a set off Thomaz Bellucci last week, his serve is easily picked on and the court is too quick for him. Becker isn't the most talented player on tour but he's got a consistent serve and gave Ivo Karlovic a fright last week in Doha. I think he's more comfortable on hard court than Chela is, so he gets my vote here. Bet strength: 2pts Sydney - Horacio Zeballos vs Juan Monaco: Zeballos at 2.50 A bit of shot-to-nothing here. Zeballos isn't a household name on tour. He's a talented lefty, however, who performed really well in St Petersburg last year. He takes on Monaco, who is the superior player...on clay. The Argentine does struggle with the pace of a hard court and Zeballos' powerful game could be too much for his compatriot. The price is too irresistable to miss out on, but small stakes for a skillful player still to prove himself at the top tour level. Bet strength: 1pt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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