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Tennis - Australian Open

AJ

By AJ
in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

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marron

marron

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Re: Tennis - Australian Open Major talking point at the end of the 4th set. Roddick challenged a ball he hit on set point that was called out, hawkeye showed it was in at the umpire gave him the set even though Gonzalez claimed, being stood so close to it, the point should be replayed as he could have hit it. Great match so far.

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Atko

Atko

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Re: Tennis - Australian Open

Marin Cilic vs Juan Martin Del Potro: Cilic at 2.50 The price has cascaded somewhat but I fancy the Croat to take this. Del Potro leads the H2Hs 2-0, with a win here last year and also a victory in the US Open. The goalposts have shifted a bit since then. Del Potro seems sluggish. I don't know whether it's a slower court, or whether he's still struggling for fitness, but Del Potro has seemed uneasy in all of his matches so far. Russell, Blake and Mayer have all taken sets off him and Cilic is far superior to them. His forehand is still huge but he's not getting as much pace off it and that'll hinder him, as Cilic's best wing is his backhand and he'll have a better chance of picking up the Argentine's shots down the line. I just get the feeling all is not well with Del Potro. Cilic looked poor against Tomic and for parts of the Wawrinka match, but he screwed the nut latterly against the Swiss. It seems he needs something to focus on, to be put under pressure, before he produces his best tennis. He'll fancy his chances here of taking out Del Potro. They are both heavy hitters but Cilic seems a little more comfortable in this tournament. He's worth backing at a good price. Bet strength: 3pts Good luck, Atko
Fantastic stuff. Cilic outstayed him. A nice 4.5 point profit. Not sure he'll take out Roddick but that's for another day. Well done to all who had winners :ok
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christiano

christiano

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Re: Tennis - Australian Open

Tip Detail
Sport Tennis
Event Davydenko - Verdasco
Selection Verdasco (Lay)
Strength 10/10
Date 24/01/2010
Bookmaker/Price Betfair @ 3.70 (Lay)
Reasoning Davydenko is in great form and I just can't see Verdasco winning this one.Especially that he is 1:6 against Davydenko.Maybe odds aren't that great but this should be pretty safe bet.Fernando of course can give russian tough time in this one but in the end Nikolay should take it.Watched him at Doha and at some moments he was simply brilliant.
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IAmGooner

IAmGooner

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Re: Tennis - Australian Open Wozniacki x Davydenko Double @ 1.96 Took this earlier, price has difted since on Davydenko's side...double is around 1.82 now. Davydenko vs Verdasco.....Davydenko is the form man right now. Comfortably through in straight sets against Kindlmann, Marchenko and Monaco. Already won in Doha this year beating Federer and Nadal. Verdasco has played well here in Oz too, pretty comfortable wins..semi-finalist last year. Don't think this is a god match-up for Verdasco....Davy is incredibly solid, hits hard off both wings. Verdasco is an incredible player when on but he can make alot of errors against consistent players with good defence. Can see it going to 4 at least but Davydenko is worthy fave here. Wozniacki vs Na Li....Na Li beat Wozniacki last week but I think the opposite this time. Na Li is a top player when she's on, very aggressive and can hit the lines. But also her downfall in that she can make many unforced errors. Caroline is like a female Andy Murray though she wouldn't have the variety or net-play he has. She is solid, consistent, good defence, gets alot of balls back, occasional winner. I thought she was impressive enough versus Peer beating her 6-4 6-0, tricky match. Contrast of styles here, but hopefully Caroline's consistency sees her through. GL!

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Atko

Atko

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Re: Tennis - Australian Open A night off the Open for me. Nothing appeals. In fact, the only price that stands out is Verdasco's, but I couldn't back him with enough confidence to beat an in-form Davydenko. Good luck for anyone who bets :ok

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smegmaniac

smegmaniac

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Re: Tennis - Australian Open At this stage of the tournament there usually isn't too much value!but i have picked out a few value bets if anyone wants to follow: 1)LEYTON HEWITT plus 7.5 GAMES AGAINST FEDERER AT 8-11 BET365 2)novak djokovic versus lukas kubot under 30.5 games with paddypower at 10-11. 3)victoria azarenka to beat vera zvonareva at 4-6 with boylesports 4)nicolas almagro plus 7.5 games against tsonga at 8-13 bet365. no time to explain. all one point wins!!

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christiano

christiano

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Re: Tennis - Australian Open

Tip Detail
Sport Tennis
Event Wozniacki - Na Li
Selection Na Li (Lay)
Strength 10/10
Date 24/01/2010
Bookmaker/Price Betfair @ 2.96 (Lay)
Reasoning When it comes to Na Li it all depends if she will have good day or a bad one.If she has good one she can play great tennis and beat anyone but when she has bad day she is just pure crap and makes lots of unforced errors.So I will stick with Wozniacki here as I know that I can trust her more.She is playing pretty well so far here at AO so I can't see any reason not to back her.
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Atko

Atko

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Re: Tennis - Australian Open Andy Roddick vs Marin Cilic: Roddick at 1.70 I've agonised over this game for a while, and eventually decided that this goes in the American's favour. Cilic did really well to take out Del Potro in five, as did Roddick when beating Gonzalez. They've met twice, both winning once (Cilic won on a hard court, although a faster one than in Melbourne). Cilic's tournament has to catch up with him at some point. He's played over three sets in all games except round one and was pushed all the way by Tomic and Del Potro. As for Roddick, he's had a few tough games in Lopez and Gonzalez, but he knows how to get to an Australian Open semi (done it five times). He has the experience and mental toughness of these situations. Above all, he has the serve. It'll get him out of trouble. Cilic has a good one himself, but he'll throw in sloppy service games. Roddick has also improved is backhand and he'll also mix it up more than Cilic well. He can come to the net and feel comfortable, something that Cilic is still working on. It may well go the distance (again) but my preference is for Roddick to take him out here. Bet strength: 3pts Andy Murray vs Rafael Nadal: Murray at 1.83 Murray has really impressed me so far in the tournament, but this is his biggest challenge as yet. The Scot is yet to drop a set in the tournament, despite his serve being a little erratic. Nadal, however, has dropped sets and has suffered from the same problem as Murray: his serve. It has always been a weak part of his game and against the best returners in the world (Murray, Davydenko), he has been punished if he has not delivered. I can't see his serve being any better than it has been so far in Melbourne, while I can see Murray being able to ratchet it up a notch. When he's focused, Murray can really fire down aces and unreturnables. Nadal leads the H2Hs 7-2 and has beaten Murray in Oz before, over five sets in 2007. Murray has improved greatly since then and above all, whether it's fast or slow, Nadal is not hugely comfortable on a hard court, especially when he is still re-discovering his fitness. It is a risk taking Murray at odds-on, especially when you consider Nadal is defending champion, but I reckon this could be Murray's time to exact revenge on the Spaniard. Bet strength: 2pts Good luck, Atko

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IAmGooner

IAmGooner

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Re: Tennis - Australian Open I also think Roddick will win but at the bookies I use his price has drifted, so not gonna bother with that one. Over 3.5 sets Double (Nadal/Murray & Cilic/Roddick) @ 11/10 (BIG BET) What needs to be said, two incredibly tough matches, coin flips I guess. At this stage, players will have dips in matches. Henin vs Petrova Over 21.5 games @ 10/11 Another extremely tough one. They played already a few weeks back and it ended 7-5 7-5 to Henin. She has looked her usual class since returning to the WTA, but her serve hasn't been great and she looks like she's not 100% fit. Petrova has done superbly this week, known for collapsing during matches but dismantling Clijsters is not easy no matter what form she's in. Her serve is one of the strongest on tour when it's on. Wouldn't be shocked to see 3 sets here. GL!

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Lahrio

Lahrio

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Re: Tennis - Australian Open Nadal @ 2.00 Obviously Nadal hasn't been in his best form lately, but I can't see how someone as good as Nadal, despite being in a small patch of bad form, could be priced out at evens. I think Nadal will step it up a gear here so this is value for me. Roddick @ 1.61 Basically same as reasons stated above. Just a small stake here for me as I missed the earlier prices before they drifted in. I'll also have a small bet on a multi - Nadal x Roddick x Australia (in the cricket) @ 4.3. :hope

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nkdz

nkdz

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Re: Tennis - Australian Open Andy Murray - Rafael Nadal 2 @2,10 Betfair Of course the surface suits more to Murray here, but still i see Rafa winning this match from few reasons. Nadal is not the best matchup for Murray, both of the players are playing mostly from the baseline and neither of them is unbreakable. In that aspect Nadal surely has advantage because he's a lot more consistent from the baseline and his strokes are way faster. Murray can win this game only if he dramatically improves his serve, and by that i mean 1st serve percentage, cause didn't served well so far in AO. Beside that, Nadal is 7-2 in h2h, what speaks a lot. His winning mentality is just incredible, while Murray oftenly fails to deliver in Grand Slam tournaments. In any case, i have a different view of this match, and it's something like 52-48 in Nadal's favour so 2,10 on the spaniard is a great bet. GL Andy Roddick - Marin Čilić 2 @2,48 Betfair Again i'm backing the underdog here and with reason. From the way i see this match it's the classical coin toss, 50-50. Both players are great servers, Roddick slightly better there but Čilić made a huge improvement and he looks much more consistent from the baseline. I watched both of their previous matches and the way Čilić disarmed Del Potro is just impressive. I took the small bet on him in-play but expected him to break in crucial moment like in USO. That didn't happened and Čilić is slowly becoming a serious contender for top 5. Maybe i am biased a bit but he just looks so confident and mature (mentally) that i doubt Roddick has the right to be considered as a favourite. Roddick didn't changed much in the way he's playing, strong serve&volley, average baseline play and that's it. I expect a long and exhausting match, very possibly in 5 sets and in that scenario everything is possible. GL

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kevshat

kevshat

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Re: Tennis - Australian Open 3 for me tomorrow. 3pts M.Kirilenko to beat J.Zheng 13/10 Boylesports Maria Kirilenko has played some really good tennis in this tournament and I think she's got the ability to go past the Chinese Zheng here. Zheng has gone well beating the likes of Marion Bartoli on the way to this quarter final but she lost the 1st set of this tournament 6-0 which shows she can be bad as well as good. Kirilenko has been fairly consistent so far. She was terrific in beating Maria Sharapova on the opening day and she was more than holding her own against Dinara Safina, albeit an injured Safina. I like the way the Russian is striking the ball this week and although she's never been further than this in a grand slam before this is a great chance to make a semi final and one I feel the young Russian looks good to take. 4pts A.Roddick (-2.5 games) vs M.Cilic Evs Boylesports Andy Roddick had to play 5 sets against Gonzalez in the last round and there was a bit of controversy along the way but Roddick only made 17 unforced errors in that match which is pretty insane tennis really. Marin Cilic is playing some good stuff as well and he also came through 5 tough sets against Juan Martin del Potro in the last round. He also had a 5 setter and a 4 setter before that so this match could just be one too far for him, physically and mentally because it's hard to get a play on Roddick's serve. Roddick is playing some really good tennis in the slams at the minute and I think he'll win here. I think he'll win in 4 and he'll bring this handicap in, in the process. 4pts A.Murray to beat R.Nadal 5/6 Skybet This has got to be a classic hasn't it? Both players playing really well but for me Murray is playing better. He's been near flawless in his last two matches and dispatched a very dangerous opponent in John Isner as if he was a junior. That was impressive. Rafa's struggled a little bit at times in his last two matches. He's lost a set in both to the German Kohlschreiber and big Ivo Karlovic and I don't think he'll be able to drop off at all in this match. Murray's looking as good as I've ever seen him look in a slam and while I think someone will be too good for him eventually, I don't think it'll be Nadal. I'm really looking forward to this because I expect Murray to win but equally Nadal always fights hard. There's every chance we're going 5 sets here but when the final point is won, I think it'll be the Scot who takes his place in the semi finals.

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bet_man

bet_man

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Re: Tennis - Australian Open Henin - Petrova 2 players have met in auckland. And Henin won that match. Now , henin is in better shape. This match will be more easier than wickmayer's match for henin. Petrova is not moving fast enough on the court. The victory against clijsters is not important because clijsters have already lost 6-0 sets in three times after her comeback. Henin to beat Petrova @1.43 Cilic- Roddick I don't think Cilic will win grand slam in one day. But he is better player than roddick at the tournoment. If this match was in grass , of course roddick will win easily , but on slow hard court , cilic will have advantage. Roddick has small injury problem on gonzalez's match.I think Gonzalez played better but he lost because of mental problems. Cilic to beat roddick @2.43 Nadal - Murray May be this match will finish in 5 sets. But Nadal will use his experience. His mental power is higher than Murray's.Nadal played better opponents in this tournament. Murray has easy draw until quarter final.Also surface is more suitable for nadal. If this was fast hard court , this match would have been very difficult for nadal. Nadal to beat murray @2.06

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Cosmetic Bob

Cosmetic Bob

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Re: Tennis - Australian Open CILIC to beat Roddick @ 11/8 Skybet I would put this match at around 5/6 the pair, hence why i think Cilic is slight value. Both players have won their last 9 matches, you dont get that too often! Cilic has impressed me more, beating Nadal late last year only losing 4 games & a very good win against Del Potro here in last 16 round. He has seemed to raise hes game when required at this years tournament, 1-2 down again Tomic & a set down against both Wawrinka & Del Potro, im not sure Roddick can raise hes game to the required level of Cilic. Cilic won their last match, july 08 when he wasnt the player he is now.

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samitarian

samitarian

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Re: Tennis - Australian Open

Andy Roddick - Marin Čilić 2 @2,48 Betfair Again i'm backing the underdog here and with reason. From the way i see this match it's the classical coin toss, 50-50. Both players are great servers, Roddick slightly better there but Čilić made a huge improvement and he looks much more consistent from the baseline. I watched both of their previous matches and the way Čilić disarmed Del Potro is just impressive. I took the small bet on him in-play but expected him to break in crucial moment like in USO. That didn't happened and Čilić is slowly becoming a serious contender for top 5. Maybe i am biased a bit but he just looks so confident and mature (mentally) that i doubt Roddick has the right to be considered as a favourite. Roddick didn't changed much in the way he's playing, strong serve&volley, average baseline play and that's it. I expect a long and exhausting match, very possibly in 5 sets and in that scenario everything is possible. GL
good post, but how can you call roddick a strong serve and volley player? he's nothing but, he's a classic baseline player. Over the years he's improved his serve and volley but to say he has strong serve and volley but average baseline play is very very wrong!
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AJ

AJ

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Re: Tennis - Australian Open Have taken Rafa Nadal from a pure value point of view. 2.12 was too good to turn down. Nothing between them in recent form, Nadal has a 7-2 H2H record against him including winning the last two matches.

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Atko

Atko

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Re: Tennis - Australian Open Wow, that was cracking. My cap is doffed to Cilic, what mental strength to keep going. Well done to all Cilic backers. I'm a bit annoyed with myself. As you all know, I tipped Cilic EW for the tournament. In the draw I printed out, I had Cilic down to beat Roddick in the quarters. I should've stuck with the instinct. Still, the 33/1 shot is still on! Well done to winners again :ok

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