Tennis - Australian Open

[Bar Grill]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open Federer To win Austrailian open 2.5pts@3 extrabet Cannot believe that he is not favourite here. Okay Murray played well and has played well all tournament but for him to be fav is a total overreaction. maybe its patriotic money. I make Federer to be around the 2.4 mark. He may not be the dominant force he once was but he is still a notch above Murray. Laying Murray on betfair would also be a value call but prefer to side with fed here as I already have Cillic and Dav on the outrights.

[Lahrio]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open Federer (-6.5) @ 2.75 (SMALL) Federer (-4.5) @ 1.83 (MEDIUM) Going to have a small bet on this one. Federer looked in brilliant form and great players usually step up their game in the second week. I don't know how Davydenko is going to pull up after his 5 setter against Verdasco, but Federer is far from the ideal player to be playing 2 days after a 4 hour match. I think Federer could win this 6-4 6-4 6-3 with 1 break in each set. S. Williams (-4.5) @ 1.72 Serena is playing well and I think she will win the Aus. Open this year. Azarenka is a good player but based on their last matches, Serena should be able to cover this handicap. Not sure if I will have a bet on the late match, I'll see later. :hope

[Ashtee]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open

To give my tuppence worth, I took Federer EW at 4.00 and Cilic EW at 34.00 before the tournament started. The price on Federer, especially after the draw, was too big, much the same with Cilic. Now, I'd have it as follows... Federer 2.50 Murray 4.00 Djokovic 6.00 Davydenko 8.00 Cilic 10.00 Tsonga 15.00

No you don't! (111%) :)

[Lahrio]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open

Federer To win Austrailian open 2.5pts@3 extrabet Cannot believe that he is not favourite here. Okay Murray played well and has played well all tournament but for him to be fav is a total overreaction. maybe its patriotic money. I make Federer to be around the 2.4 mark. He may not be the dominant force he once was but he is still a notch above Murray. Laying Murray on betfair would also be a value call but prefer to side with fed here as I already have Cillic and Dav on the outrights.

Remember Murray only needs to win 2 more games to take the title while Federer has 3. I would say that if Federer gets through his match today he would drop to around 2.2.

[Cornell]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open

Sport	Tennis
Event	Roger Federer - Nikolay Davydenko
Selection	Davydenko
Strength	10/10
Date	01/27/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 3.49 (Back)
Reasoning	Well, the latest two games between these two players did showed a lot and it will going to be just a hge mistake to not realize that Davydenko has great chances of winning when playing against Federer and not only. Davydenko has proved some amazing tennis since The Masters and he still continue to play amazing but is reated with the same odds as it was in his last game against Federer. Well, I don't want to overrate the things but there is not only about the games between Federer and Davydenko, there is already about Davyd's real talent. I have written in many previews that this russian guy can play just top tennis, but every time I have mentionated that his huge problem is his consistency, now he looks ok from this point of view and that is everything that really matter. There shouldn't be any surprise when Davydenko wins against the best ATP players Nadal or Federer as he can rise at the same champion level too, all he needs is just consistence. So, here in this situation we have just some great value on Davydenko's side as he has proved to be the best at the moment and I can't see any reasons for why we shouldn't go back with him once again when he is rated with these so valuable odds. Good Luck!

[Cornell]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open

Sport	Tennis
Event	Serena Williams - Viktoria Azarenka
Selection	Azarenka
Strength	10/10
Date	01/27/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 4.62 (Back)
Reasoning	Well, at this stage of the competition there will always be more difficult games than easy ones and Serena Williams vs. Victoria Azarenka is surly one of it. First of all I have to say without any doubts that these odds are high exaggerated as Azarenka shouldn't be underrated in this way when she is playing just some fantastic tennis. Victoria Azarenka did improved a lot in the last long period and she is getting better and better every time, certain here at AO her form is just great, so stable in defence and so mature and well is building up her attacks. Of course there is the other side of the coin which is Serena's great level but IMO Azarenka has her real chances to win this one as on hard her chances against Serena are clear much better than on grass for example where Serena together with Venus are just the best of best. What I want to mentionate is that Serena can play better tennis on grass or on hard but at US Open, here at AO is another situation as there is another type of surface, a surface not so faster. I'm sure that Azarenka can trouble Serena a lot with her great defence and not only, she really has improved a lot from many points of view and I doubt that she should be rated with these great odds. Good Luck!

[Cornell]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open

Sport	Tennis
Event	Australian Open vs. Nikolay Davydenko
Selection	Davydenko
Strength	3/10
Date	01/31/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 10.20 (Back)
Reasoning	Nikolay Davydenko has showed some fantastic tennis in the latest tournaments and he still continue to impress in the same way, his style of playing is very difficult for anyone as his tennis is based on a very high rhythm with many times just some impossible angles. This player is really talented, he didn't proved his real level in the past in a long run but now his prepartion and his form is just amazing and IMO he should be the number one favourite to win AO. The most difficult player for Davydenko should be Andy Murray as Andy can knock-out anyones rhythm, that is a question of style. Tennis is based on form and Davydenko is in a great form since The Masters and as long as he continue to play just some amazing tennis we have to trust him. Davydenko never won a Grand Slam and his motivation is at high level for sure, so there are all the reasons and the doze of class which couldn't prove anything in the past just because of the stability, now looks much more different and that is all about. Good Luck!

[AJ]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open

No you don't! (111%) :)

Good point. Anyone else care to have a stab at pricing this market ?

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open

Good point. Anyone else care to have a stab at pricing this market ?

Federer 2.47 Murray 2.80 Djokovic 9.77 Cilic 12.09 Davydenko 22.73 Tsonga 116.28 So Kelly would recommend for me, at the prices currently available on Betfair: 2.87% of bank on Cilic @ 18.00 10.43% of bank on Federer @ 2.98

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open

Federer 2.47 Murray 2.80 Djokovic 9.77 Cilic 12.09 Davydenko 22.73 Tsonga 116.28 So Kelly would recommend for me, at the prices currently available on Betfair: 2.87% of bank on Cilic @ 18.00 10.43% of bank on Federer @ 2.98

Also to lay Davydenko at 12.5 for a liability of 40.60% of my bank :eek And to lay Tsonga at 32.0 for a liability of 70.47% of my bank :eek

[kevshat]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open You're offering me 115/1 on Tsonga, Pete? Gawon, I'm game for a fiver ;). My effort: Federer - 2.75 Murray - 2.75 Djokovic - 6.00 Davydenko - 9.00 Cilic - 13.00 Tsonga - 21.00

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open

You're offering me 115/1 on Tsonga, Pete? Gawon, I'm game for a fiver ;). My effort: Federer - 2.75 Murray - 2.75 Djokovic - 6.00 Davydenko - 9.00 Cilic - 13.00 Tsonga - 21.00

Sorry but Mr Kelly says I should only risk 70.47% of my bank on that. So you can have 13p on ;)

[AJ]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open See that Fed is moving in quite quickly. Has gone from 3.05 to 2.95 in a couple of hours as the market wised up to him being over priced. Still some value there but not as much as a few hours ago.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open

See that Fed is moving in quite quickly. Has gone from 3.05 to 2.95 in a couple of hours as the market wised up to him being over priced. Still some value there but not as much as a few hours ago.

2/1 (commission-free) available at sportingbet and extrabet still

[nkdz]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open Novak Djokovic - JW Tsonga Over 38,5 @1,72 bet365 This is a potential 5-setter and we'll probably need only 4 to win this bet. I agree that Djokovic is the favourite here but surely not at the current price. Forget Tsonga's 5-setter with Almagro, he's always specially motivated in such matches and he'll surely make Djokovic run for his money. However i believe that Nole will win so i'm taking this bet, very low line.

[AJ]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open

Player	Chance		Odds
Federer	45		2.22
Murray	23		4.35
djokovic	12		8.33
tsonga	7		14.29
cilic	13		7.69

My updated true odds after the last game. Market has Fed at 2.36, so pretty much in line with my thinking, can still be taken but value falling away. Murray is second fav at 2.54. I also haev him at second fav, but these kind of odds imply he'd be a 2.1 shot against a 1.9 Federer. I think this is a nonsense, I'd have Rodger at 1.6 against Murray. Murray is stupidly short here; I can't grasp why he's so artifically short. At this price I suggest laying the crap out of him. Cilic is trading at 23's on Betfair, he's at 5.1 against Murray in the semi. Both of these prices are a crazy, I'd price the semi as follows Murray 1.6 Cilic 2.4 Cilic should be taken at 23s as a value punt looking to lay him off before the final and also at 5.1 to beat Murray. He has the game to make life very difficult for Murray

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open

Cilic should be taken at 23s as a value punt looking to lay him off before the final and also at 5.1 to beat Murray. He has the game to make life very difficult for Murray

Is there any point in backing him overall to lay off before the final, AND taking him to beat Murray? Aren't they both just the same bet essentially? I'm not a big Betfair user, so just asking

[AJ]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open

Is there any point in backing him overall to lay off before the final, AND taking him to beat Murray? Aren't they both just the same bet essentially? I'm not a big Betfair user, so just asking

Yeah pretty much, some people don't like to bet and lay, although I've really got into it a bit more recently.

[kevshat]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open Do those odds really imply Murray is an 11/10 shot aganst Federer, or do they also consider that Murray will have an easier semi final on paper regardless of who wins this last quarter final? Even saying that, I'm not sure Murray would be too much greater than 2.10 in the final against Federer giving the patriotic money and the H2H between the two.

[Lahrio]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open

Novak Djokovic - JW Tsonga Over 38' date=5 @1,72 bet365 This is a potential 5-setter and we'll probably need only 4 to win this bet. I agree that Djokovic is the favourite here but surely not at the current price. Forget Tsonga's 5-setter with Almagro, he's always specially motivated in such matches and he'll surely make Djokovic run for his money. However i believe that Nole will win so i'm taking this bet, very low line.

Good pick. :ok I got on Djokovic at the start of the first set @ 1.40 but he is playing pretty poorly. :(

[Lahrio]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open I have to agree. Tsonga has played 2 5-setters in a row now and to beat Federer you would expect he would need to make it 3. I can't see Tsonga going any further, while he did play fairly well he was playing an opponent who looked like he was going to collapse at any moment during the final 2 sets. Can't see any problems for Federer and Murray in the Semis, but I would like to see Cilic somehow pull off an upset so that my Federer outright looks slightly better. :ok

[Lahrio]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open Oh and Federer is below evens now after tonights result. :)

[Bar Grill]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open Price on murray seems to be getting shorter. I think Murray will win but the value is clearly in Cillic, not sure how much I will put on though?

[AJ]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open

Do those odds really imply Murray is an 11/10 shot aganst Federer, or do they also consider that Murray will have an easier semi final on paper regardless of who wins this last quarter final? Even saying that, I'm not sure Murray would be too much greater than 2.10 in the final against Federer giving the patriotic money and the H2H between the two.

Not really to the first part, Murray is priced at 1.23 to make the final, Rog at 1.19. If Federer was priced at 1.9 against Murray, then you'd have to lap it up. Patriotic money must alway be opposed because it's stupid money.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open

Not really to the first part, Murray is priced at 1.23 to make the final, Rog at 1.19. If Federer was priced at 1.9 against Murray, then you'd have to lap it up. Patriotic money must alway be opposed because it's stupid money.

I'd make it, should they get to the final, Federer 4/5 Murray 5/4. I don't think there is sufficient value (

[nkdz]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open Andy Murray - Marin Čilić (+2,5 sets) 1 @2,40 Expekt I'm backing Murray to win 3-0, at non-void bookie, cause Čilić is exhausted. Although im not suggesting he'll retire, just saying that injury might occur after he played 15 sets in 3 matches. Anyway, Murray is probably the worst possible matchup for Marin. He's definetly the best returner on the ATP tour and also great in defense, consistent and makes low number of UE's. Marin is too inconsistent to win this game. Odds might look as too short but i believe that possibility of 3-0 win for Murray is more likely than 2,40.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open Was very tempted to take Murray 3-0 but refrained at the last minute. Cilic could conceivably take a set. One to enjoy the cornflakes with tomorrow.

[mattywallace121]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open If its a Fed Murray final and Fed is anything over 1.65- 1.70ish im all over Fed. The way the mens game is at the min i think Fed has realised that with Nadal's form proving to be inconsistent and Murray maybe not improving as much as people thought he can kick on and secure his status as the all time great. Looking forward to the match tomorrow and would take Murray in four :ok

[Cosmetic Bob]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open 1pt CILIC to win match 4/1 bet365 Don't understand why Cilic is 4/1 when he has won his last 10 matches & beat Murray the last time they played quite easily 7-5 6-2 6-2 in last 16 of us open late last august, for those two reasons the price is too big. Cilic beat Del Potro & Roddick enroute to the semis here, he is in the form of hes life 2pt Cilic 5.5+ games handicap StanJames 8/13 Cilic beat Murray their last encounter in the US Open 5 months ago where Cilic blew Murray away 7-5 6-2 6-2, this bet would have easily won with that scoreline. I can see Cilic at least getting a set, it wont be straight forward for Murray, their match in last years french also being tight two sets where 7-5 7-6 so i think 8/13 is very good bet here.

[hornet_18]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open With you there Bob, Cilic is way out of line. Murray is playing very well but he hasnt played a player like Cilic yet with a massive serve and big groundies. Cilic destroyed Murray at the US Open and I feel he has both been inspired and learn from his loss to JMDP US Open which led to JMDP's grand slam win as it could've easily been him after he fell apart a bit in the 1/4 final. He's grown up a lot and will have taken confidence from beating two truly elite players, why not a third? The oz open does have a history of long shot finalists after all! If the 4/1 is all down to tiredness, then it's way out of line with what I think could happen. GL:hope