Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - BMW Championship 8-12 Sep

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Accenture World Matchplay 17-21 Feb Just seen that Michael Sim is being played off against one of my outright picks Rory Sabbatini on a 72 hole match bet and Sim is the favourite which I find crazy. Yes, Sim has a runner up finish this year but in reality he's only played one top round of golf this year in that tournament - a 62. He is 10 under for that one round...and 7 under for the other 10 rounds showing that while he can throw in some exceptional stuff, he is nowhere near the finished article. He's never played a competitive round of golf here and you can never be sure how a player will react to the atmosphere in this crazy tournament. Even if you ignore the fact that Rorys form is about the same, and his form here is actually pretty good...then just the experience of the crowd here should stand him in a good position. GL:hope

[ELCAKER]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Accenture World Matchplay 17-21 Feb http://www.pgatour.com/2010/tournaments/r003/02/23/picks.wm/index.html Interesting thoughts...

[ELCAKER]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Accenture World Matchplay 17-21 Feb I am drawn to the Top European market for this event. Those at the top of the market have not played in this event before which might suggest that there's some value to be had further down. Kaymer is the jolly and can surely be opposed. He's not played in this tournament ever before and whilst it is true he is in good form I cant be backing him at just under 2/1. Next up is Poults. Now I am a big fan of his but I;m not sure that a first win on US soil after playing 5 rounds, then onto a tourney he's not played before is a recipe for success Not for me. Alvaro Quiroz - another debutante. Huge talent, hits it flipping miles which is a big plus on this track but his putting is a little dubious at times. Currently 41st on putts per GIR on the Euro Tour - not sure that this will be good enough on PGA Tour. Next up is Justin Rose and at 10/1 with Stan James he's my first pick. He's made a solid if unspectacular start to the year with 3 cuts made out of 4 tournaments. In relation to the FBR Open - this will be his 3rd outing... 2007 T39 2006 T33 Martin Laird is next in market. The Scot is playing well at the moment after finding his fee ton the Tour but one missed cut from one appearance means a no-no for me. Swede Carl Pettersson is definitely a PGA Tour stalwart and is 20's with BETFRED. 5 events this year, 1 top 10, 2 cuts made, 2 cuts missed. Mixed bag but... 2009 T25th 2008 MC albeit with rounds of 71-70 2005 T40 after opening with a 77! 2004 T46 So he's familiar with the set up - apart from one blowout round he scores solidly - and after making progress up leaderboard in 2009 with comfortably his best finish I'm hopeful he can provide a run for my money. Feddie Jackobson is an infuriatingly talented player who hasn't quite delivered what he promised 5 years ago. This tournament last kicked off his PGA schedule and he finished 58th, but did throw in a 2nd round 65. 2008 saw a 66 en route to a tie for 25th. In 2006 it ws again his first stop on tour and again he made a good showing T33 with a high round of 71. 2005 he made the cut but wasn't impressive, but 2004 saw him finish in the top 10 in his debut in the event. I think this extrovert Swede loves the atmosphere of this tournament and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him go well. 22/1 with Stan James. Alex Cjeka is next...3 MC to kick off the year and then 10th at the AT&T just about sums up this enigmatic GErman. His record at this event just about mirrors his unpredictability. MC's in 2009/2008/2007 ...in 2006 T53...2005 withdrew after an opening 78. So we can oppose him right? But hold on..2004 he was T14 and in 2003 T7. On balance we can probably let him go but I wouldn't be shocked if out of nowhere he appears in the running at the weekend. The last 3 runners in this market are the two Englishman Greg Owen and Brian Davis and Daniel Chopra. In turn Owen and Davis are both suspect under pressure and neither appear to respond that well the raucous nature of this tournament. Davis to be fair does have a couple of top 30 finishes from the 4/5 years ago but missed cuts over the last couple of seasons - not in great nick this year. Owen's form improved at AT&T but he hasn't showed at FBR before and I dont expect that to change this year. Chopra is completely out of form missing cuts every week. So for me it is ROSE and the two Swede's PETTERSSON AND JACOBSON. 2pts E/W ROSE at 10/1 with Stan James 1pt E/W JACOBSON 22/1 Stan James 0.5 pt E/W PETTERSON 20/1 BetFred 7pts outlaid but very hopeful I'll have the winner and maybe one placed come Sunday night.:hope

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Accenture World Matchplay 17-21 Feb Adding weight to your bet on Justin Rose, if you look at his website, he wrote that he feels he's driving it the best he ever has, he's got used to the new grooves, and that his short game is feeling a bit better. He's as suspect as the worst of them under pressure sometimes but I expect him to be solid and start moving back up the rankings.

[ELCAKER]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Accenture World Matchplay 17-21 Feb Looking at the Top Rest Of The World market which has been priced up by William Hill... Favourite and opposed immediately Geoff Ogilivy- No real course form and wife has just dropped another baby, their 3rd !!! Good luck getting to the range Geoffrey, there's lots to be done around the house!! Villegas is 2nd up and at 9/2 he is a definite runner. Last year was a MC but.... 2008 T34 2007 MC 2006 T2 So going on previous he's due a decent finish and coming off the back of his superb run in Tuscon he's in my book. The 2nd bet for me really comes off what Hornet has suggested in his outright selections. Rory Sabbatini is a player who polarises opinion but what cant be questioned is his ability. Decent record in the event as well.... 2009 T12 2008 T34 2007 T59 - hurt by a 3rd round 75 2006 T20 - damage done in a final round 74 2005 T61 - Did throw in a 65 round 2 2004 MC 2003 T18 2002 T8 2001 MC 12's does look half decent in this market. 1PT E/W C Villegas 9/2 WHILL 1pt E/W R Sabbatini 12/1 WHILL

[Cosmetic Bob]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Accenture World Matchplay 17-21 Feb Hornet, why don't you post your bets on sports punter? Could be doing decent with Watson & Durant giving you place money. All E/W with Stan James FRED COUPLES @ 100/1 Freddy has missed the last 3 cuts here at Phoenix Open but if he hated the course why would he be back. 1 pga tour start this year, a 37th place aint bad at Riveira but was in cracking form on Champions Tour, runner up to Watson in Jan then won a tournament two weeks ago. This course suits the long hitters as jb holmes has illustrated in the past here & old Boom Boom can still hit driver very long around 300 yards he capable of. J P HAYES @ 125/1 J P Hayes shouldnt be 3 figure odds here! 5th 2 weeks ago at Pebble Beach, 4th last week in Mexico, he's a relativiely unknown but must have alot of confidence at the moment having gone close on he's last two starts, 125/1 worth a bet I think. Now are you ready for this :loon MARK CALCAVECCHIA @ 275/1 Big odds for an out of form golfer who isnt in top 300 in world but has won this 3 times in 89, 92 & 01 so knows it as well as anyone playing this week & is trying to win this in a 4th seprate decade! Made the cut last week in Mexico so aint in horror form.

[ELCAKER]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Waste Management Phoenix Open 25-28 Feb Very very early days but just logged onto PGA site to discover Villegas is 6 under, and Rose 5 under!!! Inevitable disappointment to come but still, enjoyable while it lasts I suppose :lol

[Cosmetic Bob]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Waste Management Phoenix Open 25-28 Feb Villegas -9 now but how often does a player have a bad 2nd round after a great 1st round to be leading, I think he'll do well to still be leading tomorrow, 11/4 outright is shocking odds! If I just got in & checked Couples -4 score I wouldn't feel to bad about that round but I watched him go -5 through 9, missed a shortish putt to go -6 then had to save his round, great par putt at last to remain -4, still in it! What about Big Mark Calcavecchia my 275/1 choice! +2 thru 12 then went into machine like mode, finished on -3 :loon

[ELCAKER]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Waste Management Phoenix Open 25-28 Feb Totally agree that 11/4 is very poor value in the outright market - but I'm only interested in Rest Of The World ;) Still with Imada, Goggin, Ogilivy and Yang all within 4 there's much work to be done. In the Top Euro market Rose leads the way, with Petterson just one back after a very good 67. Quiroz had a better first round than I hoped for . Jacobson was going well until some back nine troubles. On the plus side Cjeka, Poulter, Davis, Owen and Kaymer have work to do just to make the cut. Cosmetic great shout re Couples - I worry that his back will give him too much jip to get him deep into Sunday - on commentary yesterday they mentioned that he was struggling in his round, might explain why his back nine wasn't as strong as the front. Calc is a legend of the game and delighted for you that he came so strong on the back nine - if his putter gets hot he really could deliver you a high finish. Have you looked at the top 10 market for him? And JP Hayes was going great guns at 4 under thru 12 or 13 before a couple of bogies took the wind out of his sails.

[Cramer]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Waste Management Phoenix Open 25-28 Feb

Sport	Golf
Event	Phoenix 2nd round 3 ball: Mickleson/Palmer/Poulter
Selection	Ryan Palmer
Strength	10/10
Date	26/02/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 4.40 (Back)
Reasoning	After his win at the matchplay, don't think Poulter is 100% prepared and focussed for this tournament. He struggled yesterday before finding a couple of late birdies and I think he could be going home today. Mickleson was as wild as usual. He hit lots of birdies and a few bogeys, ending up -3 but he's not looking like a back at the moment. Could be anything from him today, so seems like a good price to go against him. Ryan Palmer is a good young player, in decent form, and did OK yesterday. He was going well but a nasty double at the last left him -2. I think he can recover from that and play well today, and I think he can win this interesting 3 ball.

[Cramer]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Waste Management Phoenix Open 25-28 Feb

Sport	Golf
Event	Phoenix 2nd round 3 ball: Matterson/McLachlin/Toms
Selection	David Toms
Strength	10/10
Date	26/02/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Coral @ 2.37 (Back)
Reasoning	I'll take Toms to win this. He's in reasonable form, and was solid in the 1st round. Played well but a case of missed chances. Matterson struggled yesterday, was hitting birdies but a couple of doubles and I don't fancy him for anything better today. McLachlin I don't know much about. He had an excellent -4 yesterday but I think it'll be hard for him to repeat that and he should drop back today. Looks a good 3 ball for Toms to take care of.

Sport	Golf
Event	Phoenix 2nd round 3 ball: Allenby/Beckman/Perry
Selection	Kenny Perry
Strength	10/10
Date	26/02/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 2.44 (Back)
Reasoning	Perry defending champion here, decent 1st round at -3 and time for him to move through the pack today. Expect him to put in a good round today and I like him to take this. Allenby is a danger and is playing well, but I'll just go for Perry. Beckman really struggled yesterday and I can't see him making a move.

[Cramer]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Waste Management Phoenix Open 25-28 Feb

Sport	Golf
Event	Phoenix Open outright
Selection	Anders Romero E/W (1/4, 1-4) (Each-Way)
Strength	2/10
Date	28/02/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 126.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Romero is a guy I really like. He's a really aggressive player, and on a birdie making course he's got a shot. He finished really well yesterday birdieing (sp?) his last 2 including chipping in at his last. He's 6 back at the moment but I can see him getting closer today and hopefully we'll have a live runner for the final day.

Sport	Golf
Event	Phoenix Open outright
Selection	Ryan Moore E/W (1/4, 1-4) (Each-Way)
Strength	3/10
Date	28/02/2010
Bookmaker/Price	William Hill @ 13.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Moore has won on the PGA tour before, and looks to be playing well enough to win again. He's 1 behind and seems to be playing really well. He had a nasty double bogey early yesterday but responded really well knocking in 7 birdies. I think he's a real quality player and fancy him to be close on Sunday.

[TheFarneyMan]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Waste Management Phoenix Open 25-28 Feb Another day like last night and snediker should go close!left the house early last night so didnt know the score till early this mornin.

[ELCAKER]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Waste Management Phoenix Open 25-28 Feb According to PGA site the weather should be much improved for the final round - clear skies, and just a gentle wind. However they would have been posting last night and alot can change in the ensuing time.. Snedeker seems to be in good heart and playing well - he could run away with this especially if the guys 3/4 and 5 shots back fail to make early inroads. However Sned's 4th round scoring average does give a little hope for the chasing pack. With that in mind there are definitely some interesting prices to check out. SNEDEKER: 3.7 on Betfair Score 14 under Putting T3 GIR T17 4th Rnd Sc Av: 70.00 T52 PIERCY:8.4 13under PUtting T35 GIR T35 4TH RND SC AV: 69.00 T27TH FOWLER:7.2 12 UNDER PUTTING T56 GIR T9 4TH RND :70.00 T52ND MATT EVERY: 18 12 UNDER PUTTING T15 GIR T35 4TH RND : 70.50 VILLEGAS: 9.4 11 UNDER PUTTING T19 GIR T42 4TH RND: 70.88 (from 2009 - no current info for 2010) Piercey, Every and Fowler all have lack of experience and dont appear to be playing so muich better to assume they'll overturn Sned's lead. Piercy made 2 eagles in rnd 3, and was very lucky with the first. He spoke after his round about feeling increasingly comfortable about being in or around the lead come Sunday but there are plenty in contention. Every is in the final group for the first time on the PGA Tour and will probably struggle because of that. Fowler is obviously incredibley talented and probably wont be fazed by the hullaballoo. But he is the next big hope out there, and for that reason it really will be a circus today. He may just get caught up in it all and then get frustrated if the birdies dont come. Not for me. Which leaves Camillo, who might just be getting a little fatigued. Saved his tournament with late birdies yesterday but more worrying where the 4 bogies mid round. 5 rounds last week, in the spotlight all tournament after his opening 62. I just hope he clinches TOP REST OF WORLD but not sure he'll overturn 3 shots against Sned who against these 4 opponents does look a good thing.....however...what about those lurking further back? Is there someone ready to spring a 64 and sneak in on the blindside?

[Cramer]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Waste Management Phoenix Open 25-28 Feb

Sport	Golf
Event	Phoenix Open outright
Selection	Joe Ogilvie E/W (1/4, 1-3) (Each-Way)
Strength	2/10
Date	28/02/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Boylesports @ 51.00 (Back)
Reasoning	I'm looking for a guy to come from a few back and win tonight. Ogilvie has put in a couple of very nice 66's the past 2 days and another one today might be enough. He's a very solid player, and with questions over the guys at the top he has a chance to sneak in

Sport	Golf
Event	Phoenix Open outright
Selection	Lee Janzen E/W (1/4, 1-3) (Each-Way)
Strength	2/10
Date	28/02/2010
Bookmaker/Price	William Hill @ 67.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Janzen looks in good form, and capable of making a lot of birdies. Shame he bogeyd the last yesterday, or could have been a much better position. If he can get over that he can get in the mix today. I'm looking for someone to come from a few back and he could be the guy.

[Cramer]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Waste Management Phoenix Open 25-28 Feb

Sport	Golf
Event	Phoenix Open outright
Selection	Mark Wilson E/W (1/4, 1-3) (Each-Way)
Strength	2/10
Date	28/02/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Boylesports @ 51.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Wilson had a shocker yesterday but that could leave him in a good place. A few back, pressure off, he could start playing like he did earlier in the week. He was making a lot of birdies, and despite problems yesterday he's still only 4 back and has a chance if he can make up some early ground.

[Cramer]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Waste Management Phoenix Open 25-28 Feb Joey O -3 through 5 and tied for the lead. All of my other guys from yesterday and today 3 behind. Come on boys!:hope

[Cosmetic Bob]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Waste Management Phoenix Open 25-28 Feb Wow unlucky Cramer I'm sure Ogilvie touched around 4 or 5s in running today before he faded away. Spooner did you back Mahan? :unsure

[TheFarneyMan]

Re: Golf: Waste management phoenix open

Snediker e/w 50 to 1:wall:wall:wall He leads the TOUR in putting and has been inside the top 20 in all of his starts this season. Although Sneds missed the cut here last year, he has two top 25s, including a tie for ninth in 2008.If he keeps up the putting he'll go close because this track is all about your putting. Kevin Na e/w 33 to1 He is one of the only players to have some course form,(Xcept for JB Holmes who's record is exceptional but going to take Na instead of him beacuse i find Holmes can be a very hit or miss player) he has three finishes of 4th or better in 5 starts, He's ninth in putting this year and has two top 10s, He did blow his chances last week against rory mc ilroy but hopefully that result doesn't effect his performance this week. Sim e/w 70 to 1 Sim lives in the Scottsdale area even though he is an Aussie and may know this course quite well. After cleaning up on the Nationwide Tour last season he has made a promising start on the PGA Tour this year, finishing 2nd in the Farmers Insurance Open. A bit more of that and he could walk away with his maiden victory. Ill post up odds later, tend to pick my players before looking at odds just so it doesn't interfere with my decision, i'd expect all these to be quite big tough.:hope

What a choker shot 7 over absolutely bricked it, not even each way:puke

[PerryPFC]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Waste Management Phoenix Open 25-28 Feb That'll be my fault!! I'm the curse! That is the THIRD tip I've followed that has lead going into the final round and not won! Bubba watson, Joe Durant now Snedeker!! From now on I'll post who I've backed so you all know who to avoid!!!:rollin

[barrhead73]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Waste Management Phoenix Open 25-28 Feb Tough one to take FarneyMan. Have to say the 3.55 lay odds after the third round were too tempting for me and i layed Snediker off to take some profit. Do you guys never lay your picks if the odds drop substantially?

[TheFarneyMan]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Waste Management Phoenix Open 25-28 Feb Didn't lay should have but was thinkin he'd at least get each way back! expected too much from him i guess! still sick about it! :sad:puke

[barrhead73]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Waste Management Phoenix Open 25-28 Feb

Didn't lay should have but was thinkin he'd at least get each way back! expected too much from him i guess! still sick about it! :sad:puke

I'd used seperare bets i.e. bet on him to win at Betfair and bet on him seperately to finish Top 5 at skybet. I layed off the "To win" bet and let the Top 5 bet continue as i thought he'd at least manage a Top 5.........not to be though.

[PerryPFC]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Waste Management Phoenix Open 25-28 Feb

I'd used seperare bets i.e. bet on him to win at Betfair and bet on him seperately to finish Top 5 at skybet. I layed off the "To win" bet and let the Top 5 bet continue as i thought he'd at least manage a Top 5.........not to be though.

Is there a formula for locking in maximum profit? I'm pretty stupid but I guess you lay to the value of half the potential winnings? So you win the same regardless of the outcome? Or am I off the mark?

[barrhead73]

[ELCAKER]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Waste Management Phoenix Open 25-28 Feb Very unlucky all those that backed Snedeker e/w - however I wouldn't label him the dreaded squiggle just yet...no putts dropped for him at all on Sunday and he was actually still in with a very slim shout with 5 or 6 holes to go - he was then put in a position where he had to force it and unfortunately the wheels came off in no uncertain terms.

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Waste Management Phoenix Open 25-28 Feb Another tought week on the PGA with a crazy amount of value available with question marks over the favourites. I originally took ben crane but he has withdrawn which is disappointing and also DA Points, Carl Pettersson and Charlie Wi took my fancy but 3 other golfers have interested me more. John Rollins @ 46 ew Rollins finished runner up here in his first attempt at PGA National with four rounds under par, however, what I also like is the fact that he has 7 runner up positions in his career (2 were last year so they dont figure in the equation) and has followed 2 of these up with wins the following year which bodes well following up this runner up with a win. What also looks good is the fact that his win 6 months ago also came on a Jack Nicklaus design which adding in to his form this year (5 cuts made out of 5 and a top 10 at the Sony Open - a similar tough course. With his driving being one of the best on tour and currently standing in the top 10 ball strikers on tour, it's hard to ignore him. Will Mackenzie @ 176 ew An absolutely huge price on a very streaky player, however, his record here is actually pretty good. He lives just round the corner from the course and finished 5th here last year. Add in a tied 65 in 2008 (2 rounds under par and sitting in the top 40 after 3 rounds) and a 22nd in 2007 (sitting 3rd after two rounds) shows that he can play this course and is waiting to put four rounds together here. He clearly enjoys Nicklaus courses as shown by his two career wins both being on his layouts and add into this the fact that while he missed his first two cuts of the year, he finished 35th in his last tournament, the confidence must be up. At these odds, I'll give him a go. Greg Chalmers @ 201 ew I thought Mackenzie was a big price but here I am taking Greg at an even bigger price. Chalmers has 2 nationwide tour wins 5other profession al wins so can clearly finish a tournament. The oz is playing well this year having made 4 out of 5 cuts and has improved his finishes in his last 4 tournaments culminating with 3 good rounds and a 24th last week in Arizona. However, the main thing that makes his price crazy is not the above. It's not his 22d place in his 1 appearance here. It's the fact that he joined the course record here last year so he can clearly play the course - 200/1 is too big. GL :hope

[ELCAKER]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Waste Management Phoenix Open 25-28 Feb There are some crazy prices out there - from top to bottom...so many to choose from, I might just take a sawn-off shotgun approach to this tournament.Think the value has to lie by avoiding the top 10 or so in the market, yet to decide or finalise plans, but the following are of interest. Prices taken from betfair Romero 90's Piercy 90's Every 190's Jeev Milkha 200's Duval 150's Jacobson 150's Gillis 190's Overton 180's Pettersson 120's Beem 390's j Ogilvie 190's These are just taken from looking at the prices - I'll be taking a much closer look tomorrow morning

[TheFarneyMan]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Waste Management Phoenix Open 25-28 Feb Surely j Ogilvie is less than 190 to 1 that crazy prices ill defentily have a small eack way on him if he's that big! Only two picks this week Yang @30 to 1 e/w Has won here before on one of the hardest courses on tour, by the sounds of things if your man shoots under par he'll go close. He currently has the lowest winning score on the course and after a good third last week he is coming into one of his favourite courses inn great form. McKensie@ 150 to 1e/w He lives close to the course and has real course form over the last couple of years, agree with Hornet that he has a prefrence for Nickhalas designed courses. If he can string four together and cure his streakyness he'll be there or there abouts. 1/4 on first 5 so worth a small punt, (Although stringin 4 good rounds seems to be my downfall lately!!!!!!)

[Cosmetic Bob]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - The Honda Classic 4-7 Mar JB Holmes @ 60/1 Paddy Power e/w Around 20s last week & now available at 3 times the price, dont understand why as he wasnt playing badly, 2nd/3rd & 43rd last week in feb. Last week he had a slow start so easily could have figured if not for that. Scott Piercy @ 80/1 Paddy Power e/w Won twice on nationwide tour so does at least know how to win, missed the cut at Sony Open & Bob Hope but t20 at Northern Trust & t8 last week in Arizona where he was 2nd a day to go, starting to show hes potential. Brett Wetterich @ 200/1 Stan James e/w I was just reading through pga tour website, did anyone notice Brett Wetterich has been awol since June 08 becuase I didn't! He had a few injurys & returns this week, very good player though & what about this for Honda Classic form, 3 top 10s in this before. Mark Calcavecchia @ 200/1 Stan James e/w Had a disaster of a final round last week when put up on here by me at 275/1, can't believed he finished 43rd, he was 6th with a day to go. But hes a seasoned campaigner now, ryper cupper 23 years ago he knows how to bounce back from a poor round last week. Solid form in this event, 22nd last year, 4th in 08 & has won this event twice before on the same course.