Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - BMW Championship 8-12 Sep

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Arnold Palmer Invitational 25-28 Mar Arnold Palmer Invitational 1st Round leader Sean O'Hair @36.00 EW Paddypower (1,2,3,4,5 places 1/4 odds) O'Hair was 2nd in this event last year and 3rd in 08. He recorded a decent 67 for his 1st round last year and I'm hoping he's going to follow a similar trend and score low for his 1st round. He also recorded a 66 here for his 1st round in 07. Outright Sean O'Hair @29.00 EW Paddypower (1,2,3,4,5 places 1/4 odds) (See above) :ok

[barrhead73]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Arnold Palmer Invitational 25-28 Mar

Gona go with three myself, Think Justin Rose might go close but at 40 to 1 for a lad that hasn't won in 156 starts on tour is way too low. All these are each way Dustin Johnson @45-1 Is having a solid season and is monsterous off the tee, has made alot of birdies this year and the par 5's are his spesiality. his huge drive can get him in trouble some times but if he has a good week with the driver every other part of his game ticks all the boxes. David Duval@150-1 Has played 6 tournaments this year missed three cuts but the three he made,he finished a respectable 2nd top10 and top 20. If this is his week to shine then his price is way too high for a former world number 1. Hes gone through a rollercoaster of a few years but seems to be soliding up again. Kevin Na@90-1 Another player that has solid credentials this year. Only a matter of time till he comes good. Good putter and good birdie ratio. Was 15th here last year and even though the course will have changed this year i think theres a big show by him on the cards.

Good luck for later today with Kevin Na, Farney. Just a pity they couldnt get it finished yesterday as Els dropped 3 shots in the last two holes. Got Na at each way 100/1 so should be a profitable week as long as he doesnt collapse.

[TheFarneyMan]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Arnold Palmer Invitational 25-28 Mar Ye the momentum was with Na but the rain delay will surely help the big easy. Just about to watch it now is it on sky?. Would be a nice paycheck!!!!!!!!!

[TheFarneyMan]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Arnold Palmer Invitational 25-28 Mar Just checked it its been delayed again till 5 on sky.:unsure

[Cosmetic Bob]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Arnold Palmer Invitational 25-28 Mar Highlights are on sky at 8.30, dont think its on live. Good luck with Na boys! but the final few holes are playing hard, Ernie aint won this yet. Suppose u gotta follow it on shotracker.

[TheFarneyMan]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Arnold Palmer Invitational 25-28 Mar Nice each way money back but if he had have hit his last two putts abit more i think he would have had it. Still well up for the golf this year, so roll on the masters!!!!!!!!!!!!:beer

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Arnold Palmer Invitational 25-28 Mar Shell Houston Open - Thurs 1st April to Sun 4th April Fred Couples @41.00 EW Paddypower (1,2,3,4,5 places - 1/4 odds) Freddie has been in inspired form on the over 50's tour, winning his last 3 events, coming 2nd and 3rd in his 1st 5 competitions on there! His priced for this years Masters has now been shaved to bits by the bookmakers and I was lucky to get on at 125/1 last night with vcbet. His previous form at The Shell Houston has been impressive he finished 3rd last year, 4th in 08, 1st in 03, 3rd in 98 and 6th in 83. If he takes his Champions Tour form here he has a serious chance this week! :ok

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Arnold Palmer Invitational 25-28 Mar Couples win actually came on a different course but I have to agree, I did look straight out for his price when the bookies opened up but at 40s I'll give him a miss (and hope he saves his win for the Masters!). I think there are a few great prices this week as the line up is star studded...but then you have DJ Trahan @ 40s and Kevin Streelman @ 50s which seems a bit crazy considering the guys below them in the pricing. Two picks right now for me are at a bigger price and while not in top form clearly love this course. Adam Scott @ 61 ew Bet365 A couple of years ago, Adam Scott won the Players Championship, was 3rd in the world, the next big thing, hit a 61 to win the Qatar Masters...the list of achievements and superlatives went on...and then he got injured and lost his flow and hit a bit of a slump. He has, however, when in this golfing season back in his native Australia and he seems to be finding a bit of form this year even if not with the putter. The stats say he is 21st for Total Driving and 22nd for ball striking which looks good to me, and in the Transitions Champs (his last tournament) while his putting was pretty poor, he was top 17 for both driving stats and 1st for GIR so he's clearly giving himself chances. His current form is decent enough with a 28th last time out despite the putting and a 17th in the Match Play (as well as that win in oz) but what I see as more important is his record on this track. In 2007 he won the tournament in impressive fashion hitting an incredible 13under over the weekend and in 2008, while he retired at the halfway stage, he hit a course record 63 in the first round when ill. With that kind of course form, a ball striker of this quality shouldnt be this big. Johnson Wagner @ 161 ew Bet365 Lets not kid ourselves here, this bet is out of left field, but he clearly knows how to play the course. The texan won this in 2008 (actually leading with Adam Scott with the course record in round 1) and as a local boy clearly thrives playing here...however, the win wasnt actually too much of a shock if you look at his 2007 performance finishing 9th and hitting rounds of 66 and 64 (the then course record). He definitely knows how to play the course. What might be a turnoff is his current form, however, compare it to 2008 and he's sparkling. In 2008 he missed 6 cuts in a row, then made two cuts but finished 78th and 64th before his win showing that if he likes the course he can play well. Currently, while he missed his last cut, he made the four previous cuts before that so at least there's something more to work from. Basically, a local boy with this kind of course form with any kind of current form (even if only shaky) shouldnt be at such a huge price. Speculative? Yes. Impossible? See 2008! OK, back with the reasoning and both are with bet365 - next time will post the bookmaker (but obviously I dont want to be blamed if it drifts and someone misses it)...hope I havent ruined anyones evening like Watford ruined mine:cry GL:hope

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Arnold Palmer Invitational 25-28 Mar Hornet can you please, please stop posting prices up without the bookmakers details that they are from!!! It's pointless having a thread with people posting prices without the bookmakers that they are from because people may agree with your reasoning and may want to have a bet on them. Thanks in advance :ok

Couples win actually came on a different course but I have to agree, I did look straight out for his price when the bookies opened up but at 40s I'll give him a miss (and hope he saves his win for the Masters!). I think there are a few great prices this week as the line up is star studded...but then you have DJ Trahan @ 40s and Kevin Streelman @ 50s which seems a bit crazy considering the guys below them in the pricing. Two picks right now for me are at a bigger price and while not in top form clearly love this course. Adam Scott @ 61 ew Johnson Wagner @ 161 ew Just running out so will follow up with reasoning for these two later but the prices are only available at one bookie so wanted to show up before they shorten!

[The Quiet Man]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Arnold Palmer Invitational 25-28 Mar

Hornet can you please, please stop posting prices up without the bookmakers details that they are from!!! It's pointless having a thread with people posting prices without the bookmakers that they are from because people may agree with your reasoning and may want to have a bet on them. Thanks in advance :ok

Looks like both his picks were with Bet365 http://bettingzone.oddschecker.com/golf/shell-houston-open/win-market TQM

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Arnold Palmer Invitational 25-28 Mar Thanks TQM :ok

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Arnold Palmer Invitational 25-28 Mar If there's one player I'm a sucker for every time I see he has decent credentials at a big price it's Bo Van Pelt. This time he's @ 101 (w/ladbrokes among others) and for me that's a ridiculous price. This is a guy who won less than 9 months ago, just had his best result of the season at Bay Hill (T14 which included a bogey free final round so hopefully he'll carry those good vibes forward) where his stats were excellent - top 15 for both driving distance and accuracy and 1st for GIR. He is currently 1st for Total Driving and 2nd for Ball Striking on tour so his tee-to-green game is clearly in decent shape. What captured my attention most however, was the fact that last year after 3 rounds he was leading here with Paul Casey before he blew out with a 78 to finish T19; however, his 70-67-68 first 3 rounds shows he's comfortable here, as does his T14 (71-70-68-70) in 2007. With all this in his favour he shouldn't be 101. No doubt he'll let me down again but he's too good a ball striker to not get in contention more often. GL:hope

[TheFarneyMan]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Arnold Palmer Invitational 25-28 Mar Hi lads, iv gone with Freddy Couples this week too, think he's a massive price after his form on the Champions tour. He can still mix it with the big boys,dont think he'll do much in the masters but defenitely in with a chance this week. Heuston has been good to him in the past, he went to university there and im sure will feel right at home there. Played alot of college golf so although his previous form for this comp is on a different course im guessin he would have played this course quite a bit when he was younger as its not too far from his old uni. Fred Couples 40-1 e/w paddy power I think Paul Casey has ahuge chance to retain the trophy but is a bit short at 12 to 1 for my liking, he hasn't finished outside the top ten this year so if you were to back him you'd have a real good chance of each way money back at least, the only thing is you'd have to put big money on him to make something respectable back. Im actually goin with Charl Swartzel who took a break last week after a tremendous performance in the previous week. He'll be chompin at the bit to get out there again and at 50 to 1 has a real good e/w chance. Charl Swartzel 50-1e/w And finally Luke Donald who is top of scrambling and sand saves on tour, Its all about scrambling this week according to pga website so no better man than him to have a good show, he's also 16th in putts per round all that in mind i think he's got an excellent chance. Luke Donald 33-1 e/w Best of luck boys lookin forward to next week masters to see what ye think.

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Arnold Palmer Invitational 25-28 Mar As there isnt an E-Tour event on this week I'll throw out a couple more long shots. Jason Day @ 111 ew SkyBet As said before, important stats here are hitting it big and hitting the green (see past winners of Scott, Appleby, Casey all perfect examples). Jason Day fits the bill perfectly sitting 9th in Driving Distance and 36th in GIR. Last year and the year before he was raved about as the major winner of the future, now he seems to be a little bit forgotten but he has only played here once (2008) and thrived finishing 8th. More importantly he finished off in blistering fashion over the weekend with 69-65 showing he can clearly put the low rounds in on the course. Incredibly, that top 10 was coming off four straight missed cuts so that fact that he showed someform at the Arnold Palmer with a top 25 (his best performance of the year) - where he was second in the field for both DD and GIR - means it could be perfect timing at a very good price. Perfect. Graham DeLaet @ 301 ew Bet365 Now even for me this is a completely crazy bet...300/1 - can you imagine? Well with those odds I half expect him to prove the bookies right...however, with the stats heavily in his favour you cant write him off and as they say, fortune favours the brave so here we go! 6th in both DD and GIR in the season rankings show that he has the game for the course. He is coming off a few weeks break having finished in the top 25 in a tournament for the 3rd time this year; yes that T24 in Puerto Rico was in a poor field and was coming off 5 consecutive MCs but this is a guy who won twice on an average tour last year (Canadian) and then qualified through Q School so what has he got to lose? The fact that he found his touch again in Puerto Rico, putted well there adding more to his game that just big and green hitting and his game suits up to the course, I'll give Delaet a speculative punt. GL:hope

[PerryPFC]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Arnold Palmer Invitational 25-28 Mar

As there isnt an E-Tour event on this week I'll throw out a couple more long shots. Jason Day @ 111 ew SkyBet As said before, important stats here are hitting it big and hitting the green (see past winners of Scott, Appleby, Casey all perfect examples). Jason Day fits the bill perfectly sitting 9th in Driving Distance and 36th in GIR. Last year and the year before he was raved about as the major winner of the future, now he seems to be a little bit forgotten but he has only played here once (2008) and thrived finishing 8th. More importantly he finished off in blistering fashion over the weekend with 69-65 showing he can clearly put the low rounds in on the course. Incredibly, that top 10 was coming off four straight missed cuts so that fact that he showed someform at the Arnold Palmer with a top 25 (his best performance of the year) - where he was second in the field for both DD and GIR - means it could be perfect timing at a very good price. Perfect. Graham DeLaet @ 301 ew Bet365 Now even for me this is a completely crazy bet...300/1 - can you imagine? Well with those odds I half expect him to prove the bookies right...however, with the stats heavily in his favour you cant write him off and as they say, fortune favours the brave so here we go! 6th in both DD and GIR in the season rankings show that he has the game for the course. He is coming off a few weeks break having finished in the top 25 in a tournament for the 3rd time this year; yes that T24 in Puerto Rico was in a poor field and was coming off 5 consecutive MCs but this is a guy who won twice on an average tour last year (Canadian) and then qualified through Q School so what has he got to lose? The fact that he found his touch again in Puerto Rico, putted well there adding more to his game that just big and green hitting and his game suits up to the course, I'll give Delaet a speculative punt. GL:hope

At tied 8th, -6 and 3 off the lead Delaet looks huge at 300's now!!! I've got a player going very well at 250's but only backed him on a hunch so didn't post, long way to go yet but :hope for you and anyone that followed, I bet he was good odds just for top 10?

[barrhead73]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Shell Houston Open 1-4 Apr I didnt have the nerve to follow Delaet at 300's but decided to go for him finishing top 10. Got it at 25/1. Great pick Hornet, heres hoping he holds it together for the final 2 rounds

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Shell Houston Open 1-4 Apr Good to see a couple of people too Delaet and easily made the top 10 and each way places. Very impressed with the way Delaet he held it together in the final round - especially his back 9. He didnt really threaten to win but still kept himself in contention and gave me a nice e/w payout. Definitely my nicest payout of the year so far. Lets hope it continues. Also, Farney, good work on Schwartzel, a nice little payout there too :cheers

[Cosmetic Bob]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Shell Houston Open 1-4 Apr 75/1 each way winner!! :notworthy:notworthy How do you dig up these unknowns! :lol:loon Also barrhead nice work! well done! :ok

[TheFarneyMan]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Arnold Palmer Invitational 25-28 Mar

Hi lads, iv gone with Freddy Couples this week too, think he's a massive price after his form on the Champions tour. He can still mix it with the big boys,dont think he'll do much in the masters but defenitely in with a chance this week. Heuston has been good to him in the past, he went to university there and im sure will feel right at home there. Played alot of college golf so although his previous form for this comp is on a different course im guessin he would have played this course quite a bit when he was younger as its not too far from his old uni. Fred Couples 40-1 e/w paddy power I think Paul Casey has ahuge chance to retain the trophy but is a bit short at 12 to 1 for my liking, he hasn't finished outside the top ten this year so if you were to back him you'd have a real good chance of each way money back at least, the only thing is you'd have to put big money on him to make something respectable back. Im actually goin with Charl Swartzel who took a break last week after a tremendous performance in the previous week. He'll be chompin at the bit to get out there again and at 50 to 1 has a real good e/w chance. Charl Swartzel 50-1e/w And finally Luke Donald who is top of scrambling and sand saves on tour, Its all about scrambling this week according to pga website so no better man than him to have a good show, he's also 16th in putts per round all that in mind i think he's got an excellent chance. Luke Donald 33-1 e/w Best of luck boys lookin forward to next week masters to see what ye think.

good performance might do him next week again:cash

[barrhead73]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Shell Houston Open 1-4 Apr In my opinion the two strongest guys going into the Masters this week are........Hornet and Farney Man! Great tips last week again which i happily followed, to a degree, blindly. Never thought there was much money to be made in golf betting, always felt it was a case of sticking a pin on the list and hoping you got a good e/w return but you guys have made a great start to this season and hopefully it will continue at August next week. Cheers

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Shell Houston Open 1-4 Apr After the excitement (and disappointment in bets!) of the Masters, it's back to the grind of the PGA Tour with the Verizon Heritage. It's a tight, tree lined track placing importance on accuracy, scrambling and good putting. With small greens it's also important to hit the ball close to the hole so good hole proximity is seemingly a good indicator (similar to the Mayakoba Classic a few weeks ago). Brian Gay @ 36 ew SkyBet Last year Brian Gay turned this in to a non-event winning by 10 shots...no I didnt get that wrong, 10 shots!! Clearly he can play the course so I think these odds are ridiculous just on that. He has missed the last two cuts but as a short accurate player, he clearly wasnt suited to the long courses at the Shell Houston Open or the Masters - however, even last week at the Masters missing the cut he putted well and hit over 75% of greens in the first two rounds. Before these missed cuts he had made the first 8 cuts of the year including 5 top 25s and top 30 at the WGC so he is clearly still able. His stats looks perfect (although they should be after winning by 10 shots!!) sitting 1st in accuracy, 3rd in putting, 3rd in scrambling and 8th in proximity to hole. If he is anywhere near his best, much like last year, he should be in the hunt. The course has a knack of throwing up multiple winners (Love 5, Cink 2, Weekely 2) so why not one more?! Scott Verplank @ 51 ew Ladbrokes Verplank has played 7 events this year, missing the first cut and improving since then with 6 made cuts. His last 3 events have been 30-30-18, with the 18th coming at the Masters which shouldnt have suited his game too well. He may feel down at ending with 2 poor holes there but should feel good about hitting a 68 in the final round playing well throughout the week. He has played the event 15 times so clearly knows the course and has missed the cut twice, however, he has made the cut in the last 10 years including 6 top 25s in those 10 years. His stats fit the bill sitting top 33 for accuracy, scrambling, putting and scrambling. With his game in good shape, this proven winner could go well. Brandt Snedeker @ 67 ew Ladbrokes Snedeker is a very frustrating player. He is clearly talented and makes a lot of cuts but doesnt challenge enough for how good he is. He has won on tour and I feel he will have been frustrated missing the Masters last week having finished 3rd there two years ago. He has played here 4 times and seems to be ruining the tournament with a poor final round every year (78, 73, 76 and 76 last year to miss the cut); however, a tied 16th despite that 73 in 2007 is pretty good and with his game he should play well here. 43rd in accuracy, 5th in putting, 19th scrambling, 9th in prox to hole and top 15 for putting within 15ft, he should have the perfect game for the course. He missed his first cut of the year last at Houston (however, he's played there once before and hit a worse score) but he did hit a 69 in the second round to show his game isnt in bad shape. At this price I'd loathe to leave him out. He has a runner up already this year and another top 10 and I feel he could contend at this price. JP Hayes @ 126 ew Bet365 Top 10 @ 12 WillHill I'm going to split the stakes here just due to the bigger price and the fact that he has 10 top 10s in the last 4 and a half years but no wins, so I feel it is a decent price for that also. Hayes has already hit 3 top 7s this year so he is having a fantastic year. This also included challenging at the Mayakoba Classic - a tournament with a similar feel to here. He made the cut at the Shell Houston last time out hitting 3 decent rounds in a tournament that he has never made the cut in so he is clearly feeling good and should relish coming to a track that suits. He has actually played pretty poorly here but in 2007 when finishing 29th, he was sitting in the top 10 after 3 rounds before hitting a 79 to fall out of contention. His form is good, he can play the course, he challenged in Mexico and his stats are also good(18th accuracy, 7th putting, 39th scrambling - sadly only 99th for proximity but that wont put me off!!). At this price I'll give him a go. I feel KJ Choi could go well but I dont know how he'll feel having actually been very close to overthrowing the top two after about 12 holes - he seems like the kind of guy who can deal with it but with no course form and having challenged last week I'll reluctantly leave him out. GL:hope

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Shell Houston Open 1-4 Apr In other news, I'm starting to post my ratings system (which I've just restarted after stopping earlier in the season) on the systems forum so if anyone wants to take a look, leave feedback, use the data, offer any help/advice or just follow the progress, it would all be appreciated! :cheers

[Jenspm]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Verizon Heritage 15-18 April Looks like we've got to rely on Hayes to grab som profit here, hornet. He's played a great second round so far though, including four straight birdies on holes 4-7 and currently resting at a tied second :hope

[PerryPFC]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Verizon Heritage 15-18 April

Looks like we've got to rely on Hayes to grab som profit here' date=' hornet. He's played a great second round so far though, including four straight birdies on holes 4-7 and currently resting at a tied second :hope[/quote'] Don't speak too soon :wall

[Jenspm]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Verizon Heritage 15-18 April

Don't speak too soon :wall

haha, jinxed it a bit there didn't I? :unsure

[PerryPFC]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Verizon Heritage 15-18 April

haha' date=' jinxed it a bit there didn't I? :unsure[/quote'] Just a little!! He got to tied second making birdie on his 11th hole ( I'm guessing that's when you posted!) then bogeyed 12, 13 and 14... But wait!! He's now birdies 15 and 16!!! I have a feeling with Hayes attempts to avoid par-ing any holes!! And there being 21 players -5 or better (leader on -7) this will be a very interesting final couple of rounds!

[Jenspm]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Verizon Heritage 15-18 April It annoys me how little TV-time the guy gets, while miserable Sergio is on-screen shot-by-shot.. PS- Brian Gay made the cut as well.. barely. T-69 at Even, while Hayes is at -5, two strokes behind the leader.

[Cosmetic Bob]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Verizon Heritage 15-18 April Exactly, it is frustrating when the yanks decide to concentrate on the better known players rather than those in contention. Conditions seem to be much tougher in the afternoon. Gotta love Ricky Barnes -4 at the moment hes like 80/1 with stan james, 6 birdies today he's in form. I'm on KJ Choi at 18/1 with stan james before it started & he's still 18/1 now so it aint really aftertiming is it haha as he's still same odds with them, i mean wtf was that today, what did he drink last night :loon he was 5/2 to win it at 6pm. Tomorrow could be interesting as alot of the later starters first two rounds have really been struggling.

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Verizon Heritage 15-18 April Brian Gay needs to sort out his iron play otherwise he's getting nowhere near defending his title. Very disappointing. Good to see JP Hayes is making a go at things, however, he isnt hitting enough greens - his driving is good, his putting is excellent (despite his green woes he has birdied the second most holes in the field), however, his iron play has led him to have the most bogeys of anyone who made the cut. He needs to up his game in that respect but if his putter keeps hot I'd keep an eye on him. GL:hope

[Jenspm]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2010 - Verizon Heritage 15-18 April Wow, what a heartbreaking ending.. Great profesionalism by Brian Davis, hats off to him, but it's a shame it had to end that way..