CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

[RuleBritannia]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

Yeah, most decent horses act on most goings, it's just whether or not they are at their best on certain surfaces, let you say. Do you think she will come over if it is good or good/soft?

Come over as in run? Yeah, only way she won't run now is if she gets injured prior or the ground goes better than good. :ok I personally don't think she will be at her "best" if the ground is better than good/soft, but don't think her chances of a place will be hindered too much by good/soft. Obviously, if it is worse still, it plays into her hands (hooves) but, she is confirmed for the Ryanair after a very satisfactory gallop at the weekend.

[fintron]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion colin tizzards exciting novice HEY BIG SPENDER looks one to keep on the right side of in the jewson and festival plate. Has won both starts and handicaps and may still be ahead of assessor even after latest 8 lb rise. Proven over course and distance and open to more improvement. Won on GS and sft. Ive taken 11/1 for jewson and 12/1 festival plate with bet 365 for the nrnb as he may go for ryanair, although perhaps thats a year too soon.

[Gingertipster]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

Supreme Novices Hurdle I backed Dunguib (early prices at 7/1) last year. Been impressed (as we all have) with his form and way he powers through on the bridle this season. If doing the same at Cheltenham will be very difficult, if not impossible to beat. However, he is not a fluent jumper yet, and a big field can extenuate jumping problems. Hasn't ever really looked like falling, but there's a big chance of one or two bad mistakes here, particularly with (still) an inexperienced jockey on board. Having said all that, 4/5 might be worth taking on the day if still available. With a short priced favourite it often makes for a good each way race. Get Me Out Of Here's form (imo) has been under-estimated. I was at Newbury for the Totesport Trophy. Where I stood, the turn of foot he showed was electrifying. Did suffer an over-reach there, blood coming from a leg clearly visible in winners enclosure, probably from the mistake at the last. Won with quite a bit more in hand than distances suggest. Usually a very good jumper and has experience (over hurdles) in a large field. As long as he's over the injury looks nailed on to be in the frame. Have been waiting for signs about the likely target / wellbeing. County and Neptunes came under consideration. Even talk of supplementing for the Champion. But another McManus Supreme possible with good form, Bellvano has recently gone for a walk in the market out to 40/1. Heard Nicky Henderson's reportedly said the County is being considered for that horse. GMOOH himself is barely available at better than bookmakers top price, which also indicates a probable runner. Likely ride of AP McCoy which is always a bonus, particularly against inexperienced jockeys. Menorah is interesting, Johnson went too fast, too soon at Ascot. Gave 10lbs to the winner Lush Life who came from a long way back. Even so, would've won but for another jockey error, taking it too easy coming in to the last (mistake) and unable to recover in time. On penultimate start won a novice hurdle at Kempton. Beat Bellvano 12 lengths getting 3lbs in a time faster than Go Native's Christmas Hurdle. Oscar Whisky, perhaps the other one with a significant chance. Winner of three races at odds-on this term for Nicky Henderson. Only asked to do just enough last time at Kempton. Yet to take on anything like the quality of Dunguib, Get Me Out Of Here or Menorah, but that's not to say he can't. 10/1 each way (WH) Get Me Out Of Here

[Stevet1859]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

If I thought Taranis was a good bet I'd want NRNB Steve. He's so fragile and two weeks to go yet. He's so good fresh as Billy's pointed out. Somehow doubt there's as much improvement as it looks. Was also getting 6 lbs from Carruthers (beat him an easy 6 lengths). And the three that chased him home arguably got embroiled in a pace dual. going off too fast for their own good. I don't expect the form to work out. In fact I am considering backing Carruthers nearer the time, as I think he's better than he's shown so far. Though am a bit worried about him going too fast, too early again, up against Denman (and other pace setters). Have got a win only bet at 14/1 Cooldine put on 366 days before the race. Thought Kauto and denman might be past their best by now. How wrong was I?[/quote You were right Ginge.........Taranis is a non runner :(

[Gingertipster]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion One of those occasions when I get no pleasure from being right Steve. Know the feeling mate. Done my money on Crack Away Jack. :(

[fintron]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Hard luck Steve, u've been unlucky today as Gaily Noble ran an absolute blinder at Kempton at a big price only to get mugged close home....you're due a bit of luck these next few days. Just been looking at the Coral Cup and like the look of James de Vassy now upped in trip. Has done well since handicapping this season, has been put up another 4 lbs for recent second but didnt get race run to suit and shaped as if needing further which he will get here. Penultimate form is reading really well - 4th in Greatwood Hurdle and the winner Khyber Kim beat Celestial Halo NTO and the 3rd, Medermit, beat Punjabi at Haydock in the Champion Trial. Probably doesnt want the ground too quick and would ideally like soft, but open to more improvement and 20/1 with SJ or 16/1 NRNB with Laddies.

[billy the punter]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion I agreed with Stevet and Mowgli re Taranis. I made my mind up a couple of weeks ago that I would include him in my GC bets. However I also agreed with Ginge. I didn't want to go in until it was NRNB, due to how fragile he is. I wrote my bit on Monday tipping him and it went to press today. :$ Saved by the NRNB - well not actually saved, it was the whole reason behind waiting. Will post it in my thread for what it's worth - although a pretty useless piece now. Stevet - weren't WH NRNB when you placed your bet? They have been all week.

[mileni4uk]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Willies should have been nrnb. They started with the 5 main races and the GC was one of them. Started from Sunday I think.

[Stevet1859]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Yes, gents - I checked and you are right..NRNB ....have to say that's very much more by luck than (any) judgement. A lesson learnt there.... Cheers, Steve

[aliando]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion for any lads that are going, and have met him, the mighty townsend will be there on the wednesday :ok

[Charlie Wong]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Any one going Tuesday?

[TheRat]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Me

[Heart]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Solwhit's Champion Hurdle bid is in major doubt.

SOLWHIT's participation in the Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle, for which he is second favourite, is in serious doubt after he scoped dirty on Monday morning. Speaking shortly after midday, trainer Charles Byrnes told the Racing Post: "The news is bad. Solwhit scoped dirty less than half an hour ago and while he is not definitely out of the Champion Hurdle there has to be a serious doubt about him running. "He has to go on antibiotics until Thursday and things are very much up inthe air. It's the last thing we wanted to happen, but I've spoken with his owners and they want everyone to know the situation." The six-year-old was as short as 4-1 for the Champion Hurdle.

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/cheltenham-festival-cheltenham-champion-hurdle-champion-fancy-solwhits-bid-in-serious-doubt/689527/top/

[Gingertipster]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Solwhit is out to over 13/1 for the Champion on betfair. Must be tempting for Dunguib's connections to switch now, down to 20/1 on betfair.

[fintron]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion trainer has said Dunguib will be withdrawn from the Champion Hurdle at Weds confirmation stage and that he will remain on target for the Supreme (story just up on RP). With so many doubts on this years Champion Hurdle I think there could be an upset and that Celestial Halo is currently best value at 14's.

[mileni4uk]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Dunno about Dunguib, cos they clearly don't wanna go that route. Quevega would have a massive e/w chance if Mullins decides to go that way. Pitty they couldn't get that run into her. She would have definitely gone for it and I'd fancy her to be quite competitive.

[billvernon]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Read that Mullins has said that Quevega is suffering from an over reach problem thats why you have not seen her much this season. I think the Champion would be to much of a race for her. Makes me slightly negative on her Mares race chances. Will class tell ?

[mileni4uk]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Funny enough Voller La Vadette trashed Go Native so on paper the mares is tougher race to win :loon

[Irishbugger]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Biggest fancy for me is in a minefield of a race, 'Al Ferof' in the Champion Bumper. Was watching it's last race as I thought both Dragons Roost and Made In Time looked good first time out and had them down as horsies to follow, this thing cantered all over the top of them and destroyed what could well turn out to be a decent field. A repeat performance and I think it will be hard to beat, admittedly with a host of horses who could be anything, but it'll be my biggest bet.

[fintron]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion ive been looking at the champion bumper too, and think shannon spirit is interesting. Full brother to man on the nile, a triple hurdles winner for willie mullins, and won eased down in a thurles bumper on debut. Hard to judge what he beat but the third has come out and won since and Nina has been booked to ride. He has experience of the hustle and busle of the big field too. 25/1 bet 365

[billy the punter]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Bumpers in general are a mystery to me and I almost never play them, the ones on the fibresand this season were an exception as some yards were at a clear advantage due to the weather. My last bet in the festival bumper was Golden Alpha in 1999. :puke A sickening defeat, been trying to find a clip to post but no luck.

[billvernon]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion The Bumper usually goes to one of the top RPR rated horses with winning form in an irish bumper in a field of 14 horses or more with a race time close to 3m50s - Al Ferof has done all this - he beat Made in Time (JP MCManus horse) in a great time in his last race . RPR rated 138 - top RPR RATE is 139 two horses on this but neither have won in a big field. I know he is trained by Paul Nicholls but that is only recently as previously trained in Ireland. This horse has all the credentials for this race and because of the English trainer factor is still on a good price. Grab it guys E/W :ok

[fintron]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion yeah, history suggests you want a runner with a win in a large field, thats the most striking though you notice when profiling the previous winners. Most had won last time out, the irish hold a clear upper hand, and in terms of quality, most of the winners had only been winning 6k bumpers - so no need for the candidate to have shown truly outstanding form to date (although i appreciate not many bumpers are that valuable). My shortlist was bubbly bruce, shannon spirit and the tom mullins runner. However. The mullins one missed an engagaement and i was worried about his well being and bubbly bruce waa held by shannon at thurles . I worked out the bumper stats for all trainers and will post them up tomorrow when i get chance, jim lambe ahad a good strike rate away from the obvious trainers.

[mileni4uk]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion This is a race where form lies. You either follow the money on the day or you need to have inside information which one works as a classy horse at home. After all, the classiest of them wins the race and the form rarely tells it.

[billy the punter]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

This is a race where form lies. You either follow the money on the day or you need to have inside information which one works as a classy horse at home. After all' date= the classiest of them wins the race and the form rarely tells it.

:ok I think this is true of all bumpers, which is why I tend to just swerve them altogether. I think most punters do the same.

[fintron]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion same is true in flat maidens - bit of a mugs game without inside info really, but cheltenham is a time when betting morals go out the window imo, out come the quadpot slips, trixies and buying all the papers for the free bets! I know il be betting in every race to get the free video on bet 365 cos it saves me a walk to the shop, so might as well try and beat the prices. :ok

[billy the punter]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

same is true in flat maidens - bit of a mugs game without inside info really' date= but cheltenham is a time when betting morals go out the window imo, out come the quadpot slips, trixies and buying all the papers for the free bets! I know il be betting in every race to get the free video on bet 365 cos it saves me a walk to the shop, so might as well try and beat the prices. :ok

I dunno, I still think betting on maidens can be profitable. I lot can be worked out by breeding and yards. There are only a handful of yards that can train a Newmarket maiden winner. Sometimes the majority of a field can be scrubbed. But it seems any yard can win a bumper. Although if you're talking early 2yo maidens then maybe. :ok

[fintron]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion why is that billy? Down to financial clout? Cos on the flat the well bred juveniles change hands for big bucks and there is disparity with purchase prices (a crude surrogate of ability) on the flat. E.g a 200k gosden newcomer running up against a 5k one from a small southern yard. Whereas in national hunt flat races, horses purchase prices seem to be more compressed, helping explain why any of them can win (breeding also seems harder to fathom for me on jumps)? Thats the impression i get.

[Gingertipster]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion I find maidens on the flat very good for profit making. Though I do think it helps a lot to be on course. Seeing the two year olds with size and muscle definition (or lack of it), conformation, shiny / dull coat, greeness / temperament. How they go to post. What type of action, is it going to be suited to ground conditions? Are they green to post? As well as home study of things like first and second time out strike rates of trainers. Trainers in form I find particularly important with two year olds. Breeding, purchase prices. Average rating of that race's winner helps tremendously to judge whether one who's already won will be good enough to beat some unraced rivals. Don't much like NHF's, bar Cheltenham, occasionally at Aintree too. Trouble with the others is they're usually run at a slow pace, with most only there to get some experience. There are trainers who do well with bumpers, Rebecca Curtis for one.

[Gingertipster]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

This is a race where form lies. You either follow the money on the day or you need to have inside information which one works as a classy horse at home. After all' date=' the classiest of them wins the race and the form rarely tells it.[/quote'] Disagree, might be right with most bumpers. but in the Champion bumper I think you can judge the race on form and value. I backed Dunguib at 7/1 (if memory serves) early morning price last year, think he came in to 9/2. Also had the winner, taking an early price with Total Enjoyment. May be Timeform helps. ;)