CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

[bowles10]

Sure to kick off now after a number of trials over the last month or so. Decided to set up the usual thread & will copy posts from the NH Ante post sticky as we really need a single one just for the festival only So, any Cheltenham bets in here please. All i ask is to state the price & bookie plus some reasoning etc :ok Every year we unearth a few gems

[bowles10]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

21-11-2009, 10:06	#29 (permalink)
mowgli77 Group 1 Punter Join Date: 15 Jun 2005 Location: Bradford, England Posts: 8,763 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 2	Re: Jump Season 2009/2010 ~ Horses To Follow, Antepost Bets, Banter, Q&A Katchit - World Hurdle 2010 - 20/1 Stan James The horse is too small to ever make a chaser and Alan King reports that it has lost some zip over 2m so he steps it up in trip today and says it will need a 3m trip in time. I would hope he would aim this at the World Hurdle as it does not look the strongest race apart from Big Bucks. It usually travels well, knows how to battle and has loads of heart and has the proven course form at Cheltenham. If it gets to this race in March I feel it will be a lot shorter in price, speculative bet as it may not even get 3m over hurdles but I'm willing to take that chance at this stage. __________________ All I ever wanted, all I ever needed is here in my arms. Words are very unnecessary, they can only do harm. (Enjoy The Silence)

[bowles10]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

21-11-2009, 20:38	#30 (permalink)
mowgli77 Group 1 Punter Join Date: 15 Jun 2005 Location: Bradford, England Posts: 8,763 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 2	Re: Jump Season 2009/2010 ~ Horses To Follow, Antepost Bets, Banter, Q&A Some Present - Supreme Novices Hurdle 2010 - 46.0 >Betfair I have only just watched back the race from last week when Loosen My Load beat it but I was really impressed with the way this one powered up the hill and it was closing all the way to the line. If it had been placed handier coming up the hill it could have won. A lot of horses fade away in that final furlong but this was full of running, that could be because they went off at a slow pace but I thought 46.0 on Betfair was too big and had some of that. Still about £15 left at that price, it's best price 25-1 with the bookies. Could be a lost bet before a run if it decides to go for the Ballymore race instead of this one but that's the risk with ante post bets. Planet Of Sound - Ryanair Chase 2010 - 18.5 >Betfair Really impressed with this today to finish 2nd after a bad jump, rallied back really well and down to 10-1 with Skybet, best price 16-1 with William Hill. I put this in todays daily thread and feel it is a horse going places, 3rd in last years Arkle so has some course experience and consistent type that is progressing well. If it is fit and the trainer is in form come March this is in with a real chance. Hopefully Richard Johnson is injured come Cheltenham and a more capable jockey will get the ride. ;) __________________ All I ever wanted, all I ever needed is here in my arms. Words are very unnecessary, they can only do harm. (Enjoy The Silence)

[bowles10]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

22-11-2009, 00:21	#31 (permalink)
mileni4uk Eastern European Punter Join Date: 23 Aug 2006 Location: Bulgaria Age: 26 Posts: 7,323 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 4	Re: Jump Season 2009/2010 ~ Horses To Follow, Antepost Bets, Banter, Q&A Albertas Run is not yet on the Ryanair market. I think he is a very very big player for this race now if he gets goodish ground. Especially with Imperial going the Gold Cup route. __________________ I have love for the game.

[bowles10]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

25-11-2009, 18:14

#32 (permalink)

Hoprock Seaside Punter Join Date: 01 Oct 2007 Location: Blackpool Age: 40 Posts: 705 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 1

Re: Jump Season 2009/2010 ~ Horses To Follow, Antepost Bets, Banter, Q&A I've picked up some advice from various knowledgeable posters on here and added a few brain cells of my own (not too many mind, they're in short supply :lol) to come up with a speculative Ante Post bet which hopefully will provide a little bit of interest. As always with these 'speculative' bets, stakes are fairly low but there's always a chance of a big payday by getting the prices now. My own personal preference is about 90% of the stake on doubles and trebles and the rest on 6-folds, 7-folds and the acc (just in case !). Petit Robin (Queen Mother) 33/1 BTP makes a good case for this one on another thread and I remember a few guys on the forum also fancied it last year at fancy prices. Still open to improvement and at the current prices makes the most appeal. Tataniano (Arkle) 8/1 I heard on ATR that Paul Nicholls is really fond of this one and he has stated that the Arkle is the race that it's being aimed at. Won well and jumped well last week. Binocular (Champion Hurdle) 7/2 All the stats last season said that it was at least a year too young to win a Champion Hurdle and so it proved to be. Another years experience and another years physical growth down the line, I expect it to go very close with A P McCoy almost certain to be in the saddle. Pistolet Noir (Triumph Hurdle) 25/1 This one is currently at the top of BTP novice hurdler ratings and it was a great piece of form when slamming Barizan last time out for such a lightly raced horse. The horse was receiving weight that day but will improve, stayed on well and showed a liking for Cheltenham on that run. Weird Al (RSA Chase) 25/1 I had liked the look of this one and having seen Stewarts write-up for it on his Ante Post thread, that was good enough for me to include it. The trainer Ian Williams is quoted as saying he hasn't any firm plans for the horse but is obviously a 'very exciting' prospect. The horse also now has course form so I think the 25/1 is worth taking at this stage. Quel Esprit (Ballymore) 14/1 The Ballymore is a tough one to play Ante Post since many horses near the head of the market have several engagements so even getting one to line up is tricky. I've read however that the Ballymore is this horses likeliest target and it finished 4th in the Bumper last year and was the highest placed of the Mullins horses.

[bowles10]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

29-11-2009, 11:19	#34 (permalink)
bowles10 Trend Specialist Join Date: 07 Nov 2002 Location: Block NU, Loft Upper, W12 Age: 42 Posts: 19,601 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 1	Re: Jump Season 2009/2010 ~ Horses To Follow, Antepost Bets, Banter, Q&A Haven't completed all my Cheltenham ratings yet, think it may be January before i do at this rate! Anyway, been trawling thru the Betfair markets & feel the following may prove big prices come March Arkle Mikhael D'Haguenet 17.5 (doubt over whether this is 1st choice as a target but was very impressive last year & handles any ground) Champion Chase Mikhael D'Haguenet 160.0 (obvius this MAY NOT be the target but price is too big just in case so a small bet) Petit Robin 38.0 (already been mentioned on here & still improvement in this horse, any trial wins & the price will shorten) Champion Hurdle Dunguib 24.0 (will be a big ask, but if stays unbeaten & lines up on the day, may be half this price) Gold cup What a Friend 70.0 (was impressed yesterday, still a big price after flopping behind Cooldine last year) RSA Chase Mikhael D'Hagunet 6.8 (may be prime target this year & could be much shorter on the day if unbeaten this season0 Ryanair chase Kalahari King 36.0 (needs to prove it stays but this is my dark horse yet again for the festival) __________________ www.tip4profit.com

[bowles10]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

29-11-2009, 23:41	#35 (permalink)
bowles10 Trend Specialist Join Date: 07 Nov 2002 Location: Block NU, Loft Upper, W12 Age: 42 Posts: 19,601 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 1	Re: Jump Season 2009/2010 ~ Horses To Follow, Antepost Bets, Banter, Q&A Formerly the Ballymore Novices Hurdle, i think its now the Baring Nov Hurdle Anyway its over 2m 5f Tell Massini 25.0 won at the track over the distance at the last meeting & again this price could go shorter in time. 2pts __________________ www.tip4profit.com

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Today, 22:51	#37 (permalink)
bowles10 Trend Specialist Join Date: 07 Nov 2002 Location: Block NU, Loft Upper, W12 Age: 42 Posts: 19,601 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 1	Re: Jump Season 2009/2010 ~ Horses To Follow, Antepost Bets, Banter, Q&A Quote: Originally Posted by bowles10 Formerly the Ballymore Novices Hurdle, i think its now the Baring Nov Hurdle Anyway its over 2m 5f Tell Massini 25.0 won at the track over the distance at the last meeting & again this price could go shorter in time. 2pts Wonder if it go for the Albert Bartlett now over 3m after winning today, although i still think the 2m 5f suits it better but will have to take on the best from Ireland i expect Its 6.8 for the Albert now & 22.0 for the Baring Nov hrdle __________________ www.tip4profit.com

[bowles10]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion After watching today, i have taken 11.5 on Celestial Halo for the Champion. This is bigger than last years SP when it was beaten a nk by Punjabi. Punjabi had a look today & wasnt put in the race at the end & will be better for the run. In a big field, i doubt if Khyber Kim could beat Celestial Halo next time. At the moment i think Zaynar is too short at 6.0 & happy to take the price on CH. The 1st 3 home last year could again be in the 1st 3 or 4 in this seasons race.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

After watching today' date=' i have taken 11.5 on [b']Celestial Halo for the Champion. This is bigger than last years SP when it was beaten a nk by Punjabi. Punjabi had a look today & wasnt put in the race at the end & will be better for the run. In a big field, i doubt if Khyber Kim could beat Celestial Halo next time. At the moment i think Zaynar is too short at 6.0 & happy to take the price on CH. The 1st 3 home last year could again be in the 1st 3 or 4 in this seasons race.

The stable seem to have sorted KHYBER KIM'S demons out and provided they have and there is plenty of space between his races big field or not i think he will be very, very hard to beat this season. He travels so well in his races and even when he clouts a hurdle it doesn't seem to upset his rhythm. Has to be put in front as late as poss you could see him idle a bit in front today but he looked liked the most likely winner a long way out imo . l have slagged Paddy Brennan off in the past but i'm starting to change my views he rode a cracking treble today and his last two rides on KK have been top draw. I know people will say this horse that horse wasn't fully wound up for today's race even at that imho it was a 1st class performance and feel very strongly this horse should not be under estimated. Both jockey and trainer seem excited to say the least when talking about the horse hell even i am :lol A very quirky customer but one that has bags of talent i just think/hope he can fulfill his full potential now and become top class .

[mileni4uk]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Guys, did Alan King say what route is Medermit going after this race? I just missed his interview and only heard what he said about Shalone's chances in the last.

[billvernon]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Quote on Alan King Website MEDERMIT AIMING FOR CHAMPION

We have already won a Champion Hurdle with Katchit, and Medermit is heading down that road following his creditable third to Khyber Kim and Celestial Halo in the Boylesports International at Cheltenham on Saturday. Alan had been unsure as to whether to persevere down the Champion route or send Medermit novice chasing and hope that he was good enough to go for the Arkle, but, having consulted with the owners, everyone is in agreement to stick to hurdling for this season. He said: ”We were only three lengths off Celestial Halo, so we are not far behind the principals, and if we can find a bit of improvement we might well be in the mix come March. ”We considered our options, and if we went chasing we would only be able to fit in one race, two maximum, before the Arkle, and I would much rather have a full season when we did switch to fences. ”Medermit is best fresh, so we could well give him a break and go straight to Cheltenham. If he did have a prep-race, it would probably be at Sandown in early February.”

[billvernon]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Regarding this last race I think the winner of the Champion was in here.Punjabi was tanking along most of the race and looked to have a good chanceof winning - but as henderson said it was stuffy and needed the run which was proven right - I still think Celestial Halo ran well he conceded 4 lbs to the winner along with Punjabi - He was going ok but slightly sprawled at the last which definetly affected his momentum - also this will not be the course they will run on at Cheltenham - Celestial and Punjabi look good for a place and a shout at winning in my book.

[billvernon]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion I am still going to go for Celestial the Jockey said Celestial did not quicken up as he normally does at the end which I think is down to running on Soft ground.

[mileni4uk]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion I watched the Champion Hurdle from last year and can say that both Muirhead and Crack Away Jack were gaining on the front three up the hill. Supreme and Champion both clocked the exact same time. Now in my eyes this means the Supreme is a very strong form. Go Native beat Binocular and Solwhit. Medermit fell short against Celestial and Khyber, but King is having problems, so the one that's sure to improve is exactly him and that's why he remains over hurdles. Bearing in mind the way Somersby put Crack Away Jack in his place proves the fact that the Supreme is strong form. CAJ has probably gained more than 5L up the hill and with a furlong more he would have probably been very close to winning. So judging the form on Somersby's beating of Jack, those to take out are Medermit and Go Native. Medermit was unlucky to bump into Cousin Vinny after the last jump and would have won the Supreme. And when Alan King's stable steps up few gears, this is the horse I want to be on, because he always has them ready 101% and improved for the festival. He looked inferior on form and went off 14/1 last year, but flew up the hill to be an unlucky loser. He can certainly reverse form with Go Native and at 40/1 while Go Native is 12/1, he is definite value. Being within 3lgts yesterday, he can certainly be in the mix of things come March. If he can win it is debatable, but 40/1 is way too big. If you want value, there it is for you. The two most likely to win the Champion for me are Zaynar and Hurricane Fly. The first has done nothing wrong and keeps improving. I just doubt his attitude sometimes. He almost threw it away last year in the Triumph when wondering around. Tends to do this at few of the jumps and they'll probably be applying the cheekpieces again. Who has the best chance will probably depend on who Barry Gerraghty choeses to ride between Punjabi and Zaynar. From the last season trio I think Punjabi will confirm the form with the other two. Certainly at 14s he is the bet over Binocular at 6s. Zaynar's lazyness is a concern for a Champion Hurdle to me and 5s is low enough. He won't have to worry just about Walkon here. He will be surronded by a field of top class animals and going back to my thoughts on the Supreme form, just watch the way Hurricane Fly beat Go Native at Punchestown and decide on your behalf to oppose him, but that's not a bad form and being beaten 3L by Solwhit and Muirhead, when trainer saying the horse is far from fit, should mean the most improvement is to come from him with already proven class what he can do when he is 100% ready. Khyber Kim is an enigma, and the value is gone there. He could well be an improver, but Paddy Brennan didn't use his whip this weekend and I don't think the horse fancies it. Can't see him winning a champion hurdle not being whiped. Binocular is under a big cloud and that price at the moment is a joke. Most likely winner Hurricane Fly and e/w value Medermit.

[mileni4uk]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion The one they all have to beat might be Dunguib if they decide to go that route ;)

[Tedthewolf]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

The one they all have to beat might be Dunguib if they decide to go that route ;)

Around 30 on BF and is 4/1 (with a run) with PP Shaping up to be a cracker. Hope they all turn up.

[chris34]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Well dont have many ante post best but it seems to be something far more important and competitive in the jump scene than the flat and I have had a couple recently and one has to be Dunguib at 7/4 (will hill) for the Supreme novices they keep saying they will stay down the novices route and if he lines up he is bound to by odds on!

[mileni4uk]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

Shaping up to be a cracker. Hope they all turn up.

Few might disagree with me here, but I think the first three from last year may not even make the places this term. Khyber Kim can certainly uphold form with Celestial Halo (Punjabi and Binocular too). Medermit with Alan King on fire and certain improvement (a big if there). Go Native doesn't find much off the bridle, but Paul Carberry will get him covered and produce him late like a 5f flat sprinter :) And most of all Zaynar and Hurricane Fly. Most likekly top three are Khyber Kim, Zaynar and Hurricane Fly. That's with Dunguib not taking part :lol

[billy the punter]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

Few might disagree with me here' date=' but I think the first three from last year may not even make the places this term. Khyber Kim can certainly uphold form with Celestial Halo (Punjabi and Binocular too). Medermit with Alan King on fire and certain improvement (a big if there). Go Native doesn't find much off the bridle, but Paul Carberry will get him covered and produce him late like a 5f flat sprinter :) And most of all Zaynar and Hurricane Fly. Most likekly top three are Khyber Kim, Zaynar and Hurricane Fly. That's with Dunguib not taking part :lol[/quote'] Punjabi will be a stone better come March than he was on Saturday though mate.

[mileni4uk]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

Punjabi will be a stone better come March than he was on Saturday though mate.

He is the one I like the most from last years trio and if I can trade out my current bets on the Fly and Medermit I doubt I'll leave myself with no money risked for the race. It's just not that enjoyable sitting on coisy free bets, is it? :lol Might put a few quid on Punjabi. Certainly at the prices available he 14 and Binocular 6 .. ?!? :unsure

[fintron]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion guys, has anyone got any thoughts on Rare Bob? I'm not interested in either of the big two at 9/4 ante-post for the Gold Cup and was looking down the list for an improver that could step up as a lively outsider nearer to March. To date he has mainly raced over 2m 4f ish but on the occasions he has been stepped up to around 3m or more he has excelled, winning novices race at Navan 3m, placing in the Irish national over 29f and then winning a G1 novices race over 25f at Punchy when last seen. So it looks like he has the stamina for a Gold Cup especially if Denman goes hell for leather from the front. The Irish handicapper rates him 155 so if he gets a similar sort of rating over here it looks like he's gonna have to improve quite a bit more to figure but he is open to more improvement for sure. Lack of course form a worry but you can't have everything when backing them at 100/1. I know you jumps boffs have been studying for the big races for a while now, so has anyone got any thoughts on this one? I heard the Lexus was a target and the Gold Cup was his long term aim, but he isnt in the betting for the Lexus so dunno whats happened since.

[mileni4uk]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Dessie Hughes stable tour: "He was a bit weak this year, so we took our time with him and only brought him back in a month ago. He’s back in work and we hope to be able to run him at Christmas, maybe in the Ericsson Chase. It’s possible that he’ll end up a Gold Cup horse, as he may only have to find maybe 8lb of improvement, and he’s a young horse, so he’s capable of doing that. He stays and has pace. If we can give him enough time to get himself together this could be his year. He’s always been backward, but last year he held himself together quite well. If he builds on that, he could be a good horse this year."

[mowgli77]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Hurricane Fly is injured, won't be running at Leopardstown and not sure to make it to Cheltenham either. I was already going to place 2 ante post bets on this race and just got them on now as this news has been announced: 5pts WIN - Punjabi to win Champion Hurdle 2010 (12-1 Bet365) I felt Punjabi travelled well for a long way before fading the other week at Cheltenham and the trainer had already said it would come on for the run. It has winning Cheltenham form and will be prepared with this race in mind and be fully fit by March. I think a peak Punjabi could win this race again and have backed it to do so. 5pts WIN - Go Native to win Champion Hurdle 2010 (12-1 W. Hills) Sublimity is a favourite of mine and ran well at Newcastle in the Fighting Fifth but Go Native was even classier on the day and also has winning Cheltenham form from last years festival. I am impressed by the way it travels but then seems to find another gear when asked to do so right at the end of its races. I can see this still full of running up the hill and being involved in the finish in March.

[mileni4uk]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

5pts WIN - Go Native to win Champion Hurdle 2010 (12-1 W. Hills)

On this one Paul Carberry will have to hit the front exactly at the right moment, because if he hits it too early he'll be caught and if he hits it too late, he won't get there. He is the man to do it though, probably the best judge of pace in racing :ok Can't help, but curse my luck on Hurricane Fly's injury, becuase he will beat Go Native anyday they meet and there was only one winner in the Champion for me :(

[mowgli77]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

On this one Paul Carberry will have to hit the front exactly at the right moment, because if he hits it too early he'll be caught and if he hits it too late, he won't get there. He is the man to do it though, probably the best judge of pace in racing :ok Can't help, but curse my luck on Hurricane Fly's injury, becuase he will beat Go Native anyday they meet and there was only one winner in the Champion for me :(

I have Hurricane Fly in my 10 to follow as I thought he was the most likely Champion Hurdle winner and as I said in the Kempton thread beat Go Native easily when they met, twice I believe. What did you think of todays ride by Condon? He said he got to the front too soon and the horse idled, I thought he was probably a bit over confident on it and didn't really start pushing for an effort until he realised Starluck was closing the gap. I was impressed with Starluck, full of running at the end of the race and just what a horse needs for that final push up the Cheltenham hill. Go Native will be another Harchibald, came cruising on the bridle just like that one but managed to just hold on and as you say needs timing to perfection. It will be hard to beat at Cheltenham if given the perfect ride.

[TheRat]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

Go Native will be another Harchibald

I couldn't help thinking this myself although I though Condon was late on him and did get complacent, although he still found little. I really thought Starluck was gonna pip him at one point Would be happy if I had 12/1 though still for the Festival

[mileni4uk]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Well, your 12/1 is value whatever happens mate. I think Paul Carberry is the man for this horse. He can go at the exact right moment and win the race for you. Don't think Go Native is another Harchibald. This fella is full of speed and will get a nice cover at Cheltenham and be produced at the right moment. He jumps well too. I continue to stand by my position that the novices are the ones to beat and that's why my bets are on Medermit and Hurricane Fly. If they weren't then Somersby would have lost to Crack Away Jack simple as. Condon apologized to Noel Meade on TV saying he hit the front too soon. He kept looking behind and should have asked the horse more serios questions instead. From the three there I can assure you Starluck and Binocular won't be winning the Champion Hurdle.

[mowgli77]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Supreme Novices Hurdle I've just taken 3 for the Supreme Novices Hurdle on Betfair. It will be hard for anything to beat Dunguib but I'm looking at these as possible trading opportunities/free bets and placing them before the big novice hurdles race tomorrow at Newbury. I have already backed Some Present but I'm not too confident about that bet. The horses and odds are: Manyriverstocross 44.0 Betfair Finians Rainbow 34.0 and 30.0 Betfair Reve De Sivola 150.0 Betfair I like the look of Alan Kings horse (Manyriverstocross) and think this one could go places while the Henderson horse (Finians Rainbow) could be a very good horse if managing to take the step up in class in its stride. Not sure about Reve De Sivola but had a few quid at the price and will look to try lay it off at less odds if possible. Have posted about the Newbury race in the relevant daily thread.

[fintron]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Ryanair - Barber's Shop - third to Kauto Star and Madison du Berlais in the King George on Boxing Day and prior to that placed in the Hennessy when fourth to Denman. On both occassions he failed to see out the trip fully, which was also his downfall when I'd backed him in the 2009 Gold Cup and he travelled well before not seeing out the distance fully. With that in mind, looks an ideal candidate for 2m 5f here, Imperial Commander who ran Kauto so close in the Betfair chase is a better horse than he showed last time out and loves Cheltenham so is a big danger, but the pair were closely matched on Paddypower running last season and like Imperial Commander, I think Barber's Shop has improved, he has just not been able to fully translate that into wins having been campaigned over inappropriate trips. 8/1 Hills.

[fintron]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Gold Cup - As posted in the Hennessy Key Race thread at the time, was very impressed with What A Friend in the Hennessy, thought he ran a blinder and was better than the bare margin of defeat to Denman, and may have got much closer and even won had he not made a mess of the last. Took 75.0 on him, he boosted the form by winning the Lexus yesterday. Am also on Petit Robin on Billy's advice, took 25/1.