CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

[mileni4uk]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion When I was taking the bet I thought he is the kind of horse that can progress from being 4th in Ballymore to go close in a novice chase the year after like so many horses have done. He is a chaser and he will stay 3 miles very well. If he was Paul Nicholls' would you have 25/1 on offer with his form? I doubt it. He conceded a lot of weight to Weird Al and they finished within a neck. I like Weird Al a lot, but I think I missed the price there. And to be fair I am not looking to lay anything off Knockara, because it's just 1pt and I fancy that bet as a saver on the day whatever else I'm backing :ok

[mowgli77]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

For this reason I'm on Knockara Beau for the RSA. George Charlton has been quoted as saying he feels its important to keep fitness up' date=' and he plans to give the horse a run every month to keep it on its toes for the festival. Although he doesnt yet hold and entry for this race the price on Betfair offers hope and he is due to run at Haydock this month. He has made a nice start to his chasing career and the step up in trip would be a logical way of continuing that improvement. 25/1 with Stan James.[/quote'] Tipped up in one of the Sunday papers I was reading at my parents (either People or NOTW) by that Alistair Down bloke off Channel 4. He seems to think it has a great chance for that race. It ran well enough last year at the festival but found a few too good, seems very progressive over fences and if it does run and wins convincingly before Cheltenham there won't be any big prices available about the horse on race day.

[mileni4uk]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

Tipped up in one of the Sunday papers I was reading at my parents (either People or NOTW) by that Alistair Down bloke off Channel 4. He seems to think it has a great chance for that race. It ran well enough last year at the festival but found a few too good' date=' seems very progressive over fences and if it does run and wins convincingly before Cheltenham there won't be any big prices available about the horse on race day.[/quote'] The key for him is te trip imo. He got outpaced at a crucial stage and was always staying on in 4th. I think he will improve a lot for the 3 miles.

[mowgli77]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion I've just taken the following for the RSA chase and will provide further reasoning tomorrow: 5pts EW Bensalem 20-1 SkyBet 5pts EW Knockara Beau 25-1 Skybet 5pts EW Inchidaly Rock 20-1 Skybet I was really impressed with Inchidaly Rock last time out and feel this is a horse going places, will it be going for the RSA chase though as it is 51.0 on Betfair?

[mileni4uk]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

I was really impressed with Inchidaly Rock last time out and feel this is a horse going places' date=' will it be going for the RSA chase though as it is 51.0 on Betfair?[/quote'] Nicholls said he will probably go for the 4 miler, because he stays well. But baring in mind who the owner is I wouldn't take that with any great deal of trust. I don't think he will lack speed for the RSA and could end up there especially with Pride Of Dulcote now injured.

[fintron]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Gold Cup w/o the big two Cloudy Lane 33/1 Bet 365. This one runs in the Peter Marsh chase today and if he runs well, as I expect he will do at a course he relishes, his price may come in a little in the w/o the big two market. The rationale is that a strongly run Gold Cup may favour a stayer that can plug on into the places when the true 3 miles are fading away. Thats why I backed Rare Bob but he disappointed me the other week and also has never run at Cheltenham, so I want another one onside for this race. Cloudy Lane already has proven course form at Cheltenham, was well fancied for the National the other year and should see out a strongly run Gold Cup trip IMO.

[mileni4uk]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Hmmm.. interesting move on Hurricane Fly in the last days. Was 175, but now last price matched for the CH is 40s. Was also 30 for the place, but quite a few money came there too and he is as short as 12s. Would be nice if he has showed progress at home. The yard has been performing quite well after the cold snap.

[Gingertipster]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Well done to those who've got the price about Twist Magic for the Champion Chase before today. However, this is a very poor price now. Can't help feel he needs to race prominently, possibly even needs to lead. Also, with Cheltenham being more clostrophobic, may well get above himself. Might even refuse to race.

[bowles10]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

Well done to those who've got the price about Twist Magic for the Champion Chase before today. However' date=' this is a very poor price now. Can't help feel he needs to race prominently, possibly even needs to lead. Also, with Cheltenham being more clostrophobic, may well get above himself. Might even refuse to race.[/quote'] i agree ginge, it is poor value now for the race and when walsh chooses master minded, not sure who nicholls will turn to for the ride TM on flat tracks yes, but not cheltenham:ok would be great to keep it fresh for punchestown or aintree

[mileni4uk]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Wouldn't read the form here the way it usually should be read. I think you can ignore his bad runs on undulating tracks. He ran a blinder at Exeter off top weight this year. Used to be a good ground horse in the past, but look how well he's winning on soft now. I just think he's completely new horse and Nicholls trains him with a special regime. Just like Khyber Kim you see a rejuvinated horse. I would say he's a big big player in the Champion Chase, but probably poor value now. Well not for those of us, who had 55 after the Haldon ;)

[mowgli77]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion 5pts EW Sports Line 16-1 Bet365 - Arkle Was going to back this for todays race at Leopardstown, missed the price but confidence boosted with the money for it. Having only 2nd race over fences, very impressive so far, very progressive, won on soft and heavy and never out of the first 2, unlikely to be out of first 2 today and market says this horse will win today and be cut for the Arkle. I see it being about 10-1 for the Arkle after this next race. Will go to Cheltenham with plenty of improvement expected and can run the main fancies close such as Sizing Europe and Captain Cee Bee.

[mileni4uk]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Am I stupid or what.. How can Bet365, Sporting Bet and Stan James shorten Zaarito for the Arkle after his fall today? How exactly did he enhance his Arkle credentials with this fall?

[mowgli77]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

Am I stupid or what.. How can Bet365' date=' Sporting Bet and Stan James shorten Zaarito for the Arkle after his fall today? How exactly did he enhance his Arkle credentials with this fall?[/quote'] I guess they don't rate the rivals they have seen run today, doesn't make much sense any other way.

[mileni4uk]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion It's a strange market for the Arkle this year. Fav is a horse, who fell lto and we don't know if he'd won or lost against Sizing Europe. Have a sneaky feeling those two are weak favorites.

[Aykay1]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

Am I stupid or what.. How can Bet365' date=' Sporting Bet and Stan James shorten Zaarito for the Arkle after his fall today? How exactly did he enhance his Arkle credentials with this fall?[/quote'] Have they really? :lol Like Mowgli says, maybe they feel he would have been competitive had he stood up. Falling isnt exactly the best prep for the festival though and must put him at a disadvantage. He has drifted on betfair to about 26.0

[bowles10]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion somersby is still the best jumper we have seen for the arkle :unsure cant fault it's 2 wins

[diamond1924]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

somersby is still the best jumper we have seen for the arkle :unsure cant fault it's 2 wins

Somersby is increasingly looking likely without running. I'm still as interested in Bedlam Boy whom I trust Ferdy will be looking to "get experience into" between now and March.

[bowles10]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Champion Hurdle i should advise i have just taken 90.0 on Betfair for 1pt on American Trilogy from Nicholls stable. This was a horse Nicholls really rated as a 4yo but didnt show the promise on a racecourse until last season winning twice in 7 starts. Won the county hurdle at last years festival by 11L making it a procession and possibly making a mockery of a 136 rating. It then went to Aintree and narrowly failed to beat El Dancer in a decent novice hurdle. Now AT is due out at Cheltenham on Saturday in a handicap hurdle over 2m 1f which it should walk if fit. Nicholls can bring horses on from 5 to 6 and make them even better and stronger. I just have a feeling the 90.0 may look a value hunch if it wins Saturday and Nicholls decides to run in the CH especially after Celestial's performance last weekend.

[bowles10]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Some notes after the weekend meeting at Cheltenham I didnt note anything in the novice hurdle, the time was extremely slow for a novice event here and 12 secs slower than the competitive hurdle later on the card. Pistolet Noir didnt live up to expectations and Baccalaureate won easy in the end. In the novice chase, Hey Big Spender jumped well and was a trend horse for me. That was off OR 138 and i think we may see it back at the festival having a go at a decent novice prize. The horse needs soft ground and will get 3m. Fav Doctor Pat was going ok before a blunder put paid to his chances. Another to note was ernst blofield who may be worth another chance falling at the 8th. In the 3rd race, the 2m 5f h'cap, the 1st 3 places were filled by Cheltenham specialists of which are all capable of wining at the track. The Sawyer won the race for the 2nd year running off same mark and loves the soft ground.. Private be doesnt seem to get past anything and always seems to be the bridesmaid, i wouldnt put too much confidence in this one apart for EW money. Seven is my number wasnt right and perhaps the travelling plans affected it as it was en route to Donny earlier in the day. The Argent Chase proved again for me that Cheltenham only suits certain horses. Carruthers looked odds on to win at the turn but the forgotten horse Taranis proved again its liking for the course by winning in a canter. Joe Lively showed a return to form on its favourite track finishing only 7L behind the winner and was giving weight away to both the 1st 2, so a very good performance for me. I wonder if Restless Harry will get the 3m at the festival but he couldnt do any more than push up that famous hill. An impressive performance for me and one to follow. The Cleeve Hurdle featured a number of horses i have followed over the years. It was one of them Tidal Bay that came back to form. A former Arkle winner, had lost its way over fences and couldnt live up to the rivals in Kauto & Denman. Perhaps, in another lifetime, TB may have won a decent chase or 2. Anyway, it travelled off the pace for the 1st half of the race and then moved up well off the turn to run up that famous hill like it did when it won the Arkle. Another repeat performance & i think its nailed on for a place in the World Hurdle. Time for Rupert ran another game race and is another that likes it here, and another to note for a cheltenham handicap again is Kayf Aramis who ran well in 5th. I didnt see the last race. Although mccoy had Stradbrook in front and dropped tamely away. This horse is still capable of a big race IMO Horses to note: Hey Big Spender Tidal Bay Joe Lively Time for Rupert Stradbrook Restless Harry Kayf Aramis Ernst Blofield

[mikel arteta]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion does anyone know if any of the bookies are going NR no bet yet ?

[bowles10]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

does anyone know if any of the bookies are going NR no bet yet ?

no normally about 2 weeks before at the best!

[mikel arteta]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

no normally about 2 weeks before at the best!

thanks Bowles10 i haven't seen much NH racing this season, not really interested tbh, although i've watched the Cheltenham meetings over the last few months and Joe Lively done me for my placepot on Saturday, it would have been a great result but the jockey bottled out over the last 2 fences [lost about 6 or 7 lengths] it would have been a great placepot :@

[markysimmo]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion I read and hear today that AP Mc Coy is on Denman for the Gold Cup..

[billvernon]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Hi Guys - noted that a horse called - Made in Time - ran at Ffos Las on soft ground and recorded a 6 length victory in a time of 3m.48s This is a fantastic time it was only 7 runners though .J.P.McManus has now bought him on reccommendation of A.P McCoy as he thinks he is a good horse the trainer Rebecca Curtis thinks he is one of best she has in yard.He is to run this weekend in the Bumper Bet totepool At totesport.com Winter Bumper (A Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race) Grade 2 at the end of the card at Newbury which has 24 runners - good stat for champion at cheltenham - If made in time runs well and wins then I should look at this horse as well even though not irish trained. It will be aimed at the champion bumper at cheltenham. And grab 20/1 e/w at williamhills.

[NewPunter]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

Champion Hurdle i should advise i have just taken 90.0 on Betfair for 1pt on American Trilogy from Nicholls stable. This was a horse Nicholls really rated as a 4yo but didnt show the promise on a racecourse until last season winning twice in 7 starts. Won the county hurdle at last years festival by 11L making it a procession and possibly making a mockery of a 136 rating. It then went to Aintree and narrowly failed to beat El Dancer in a decent novice hurdle. Now AT is due out at Cheltenham on Saturday in a handicap hurdle over 2m 1f which it should walk if fit. Nicholls can bring horses on from 5 to 6 and make them even better and stronger. I just have a feeling the 90.0 may look a value hunch if it wins Saturday and Nicholls decides to run in the CH especially after Celestial's performance last weekend.

Any news on this horse Bowles?

[Gingertipster]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Schindler's Hunt looks a stand out bet @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes) each way for the Ryanair. I'd expect him to start around half that price. Showed he's back to his best last weekend, just failing to stay 3 miles in soft ground. We know he goes well at Cheltenham. Close 3rd to Imperial Commander and Voy Por Ustedes last year. Former goes for the Gold Cup, latter not in the same form so far this term yet is half the price of Schindler's. Poquelin and Tranquil Sea could be good horses but are yet to prove it at this level (need to improve). Barber Shop has yet to put in the performance connections feel he's capable of (though has promised to). Joncol may be better on softer ground. Schindler's Hunt hasn't found that much under pressure at times which is why I've taken each way (don't normally with AP bets). Another possible way is win only and lay him back two out when going well (travels well).

[Gingertipster]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Another Ante-Post bet: Queen Mum Kalahari King 6/1 each way (T, L, WH) Am a great fan of Master Minded, backed him at 12/1 AP for first win in this. However, hes not put up that class of performance for over a year now. And that's before a ribb injury. Want to be against Twist Magic, may even plant himself at the start. Possibly needs to lead to produce his best. Yet to show form at Cheltenham and found little in the past. Big Zeb, does he jump well enough to win a Champion? Does he travel (away from Ireland)? Was going to back Petit Robin, before I saw Kalahari. Henderson's horse is much better suited to left-handed course, ignore Ascot. 16/1 looks good each way value. Placed in this last year. Just feel Kalahari King has a much better chance of actually winning it. Ferdy's charge was mightily impressive at Donny. Sprinted clear of a good competitive handicap field. More in hand than distances suggest. Was not a fan of KK before that but has certainly improved. Goes on a sound and easy surface, good record at the festival too (placed twice). Just hope he remains fit and well, Ferdy is a past master at getting them spot on for March.

[mileni4uk]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Paul Nicholls on Inchidaly Rock: "I'm looking for a confidence-booster for him. I know he'd fallen by halfway in the Argento Chase, but Ruby was very impressed with him up to that point, so a good run here would seal his place in the RSA line-up." I know few of you are on him for the RSA like me, so good signs here they aren't thinking of the 4 miler :ok

[markysimmo]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion After Denman's problems today he has drifted out to 3s and Kauto into 4/7 for the Gold Cup..

[Gingertipster]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

Paul Nicholls on Inchidaly Rock: "I'm looking for a confidence-booster for him. I know he'd fallen by halfway in the Argento Chase' date= but Ruby was very impressed with him up to that point, so a good run here would seal his place in the RSA line-up." I know few of you are on him for the RSA like me, so good signs here they aren't thinking of the 4 miler :ok

Think Mileni, what that commment meant was: If IR ran Harry close today he'd go for the RSA. But the NHC (4 miler) if he's well beaten. Sadly, it may be academic, as he was seen by someone I know entering the ambulance horsebox afterwards. Don't expect it to be life threatening, but I hadn't seen him jump right handed before. So there may have been a reason for that.