CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

[Gingertipster]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Was at Newbury today. Denman's coat not as good as it was in November. Ollie Magern was a terrible walker, seemed cow hocked. Air Force One seemed to need the race quite badly. Hope The handicapper does not put Niche Market up for the National.:hope Expect you saw on the TV, but Get Me Out Of Here returned with what looked a bad over-reach. Probably sustained with a mistake at the last.

[fintron]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion RSA - Diamond Harry - appeared not to impress some yesterday but a win is a win nonetheless and it ticked the staying box at least. For a yard supposedly effected by the cold snap nick williams isnt doing a bad job at all, infact his stats either side of xhritmas represent a new high in the last five years, so his preperations do not appear to have been adversely effected. The horse is proven around Heltenham, is a scopey horse that is open to more improvement in this sphere, so taken 7/1 with Laddies.

[Gingertipster]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

RSA - Diamond Harry - appeared not to impress some yesterday but a win is a win nonetheless and it ticked the staying box at least. For a yard supposedly effected by the cold snap nick williams isnt doing a bad job at all' date=' infact his stats either side of xhritmas represent a new high in the last five years, so his preperations do not appear to have been adversely effected. The horse is proven around Heltenham, is a scopey horse that is open to more improvement in this sphere, so taken 7/1 with Laddies.[/quote'] Proved Harry stays 3 miles yes. But it did look as though he'd win a lot easier. Without the Horlicks at the cross fence and Harry going accross him at the second last (or was it the last?); things may have been different. I wonder if Harry will be less suited by an even greater test of stamina at Cheltenham. At the prices I'd rather back Bensalem (though yet to do so) and take a chance King can get him to jump better. Rather hurdled his fences yesterday. Good luck with the bet anyway Fin.:ok

[fintron]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

Proved Harry stays 3 miles yes. But it did look as though he'd win a lot easier. Without the Horlicks at the cross fence and Harry going accross him at the second last (or was it the last?); things may have been different. I wonder if Harry will be less suited by an even greater test of stamina at Cheltenham. At the prices I'd rather back Bensalem (though yet to do so) and take a chance King can get him to jump better. Rather hurdled his fences yesterday. Good luck with the bet anyway Fin.:ok

Appreciate what you are saying Ginge. Bensalem isnt for me though, even at three times the price. Not only are big questions to be asked of his jumping after today, especially as he pummelled his way through the cross fence, but he fell when running up against Diamond harry earlier in the season. Also, Harry had the beating of him over hurdles at Cheltenham so thats three pieces of form that suggest to me that he is the better horse and should confirm placings at the festival. I always felt Harry was holding him here, although hats off for Bensalem and digging in to finish as close as he did after the errors. My method of betting is to try swim against the tide (when it is logical to do so) and I read the RP's report of the race and it said Diamond Harry was less than impressive. I thought that the majority would look at his jumping 'errors' if you can call them that and I wanted to oppose the general consensus if it was appropriate to do so. Having watched the race with my own eyes I was not put off by his jumping at all and infact placed my first bet on him after the race. He tended to get into some of the fences a little close on the first circuit but as the race wore on his jumping improved and although he brushed a couple of the fences, they were not horrendous errors, such as those displayed by Bensalem (who I think will really struggled in a quickly run RSA at Cheltenham on this evidence). I also thought that in such a small field, with the pace run modestly, there is a tendency for the runners to be stretched out, and in a big field with a more tightly defined pack and a true pace I think his jumping would improve. Some people will question whether he can jump fluently at speed, but when Inchidaly Rock upped the tempo on Saturday Diamond Harry's jumping was perfectly fine IMO, for a novice making only his second start in this sphere. He is in good hands indeed, I think Nick Williams is underratted, and I think he will be sent off shorter than 7/1 on raceday, so I was more than happy to back him and hope he can bring down Punchestowns as there is every chance he has more improvement to give. We all know the importance of course form at Cheltenham, Harry's record is 2-3 (All over hurdles) with the 3rd coming in Ballymore, impressive again and another box ticked.

[Gingertipster]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Nick Williams is certainly an under-rated trainer. I backed Diamond Harry last year at Cheltenham. To my mind going almost as well as the winner before the turn. Little disappointed in his response. I don't see there is too much wrong with Harry's jumping either. But strangely enough I'd have given him a better chance of winning the RSA had he not run at Newbury. Last term he needed a long time between races. At the Festival he looked light (in condition). It is my belief that DH runs best after a long break. Bensalem's jumping is a worry; and I'd say Harry has a better chance of winning. But not as much as three times that betting implies. 20/1 looks too big for Bensalem. Will certainly be suited by a test of stamina and genuine. Diamond Harry and Inchadailly Rock are good looking horses, but Bensalem stood out at Newbury. There's plenty of improvement in him if and when (think it'll be the latter) his jumping together. Just wonder if he'd go for the William Hill handicap instead. Like to see Bensalem ridden prominently as seemed to be distracted by rivals when making mistakes.

[mileni4uk]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

Nick Williams is certainly an under-rated trainer. I backed Diamond Harry last year at Cheltenham. To my mind going almost as well as the winner before the turn. Little disappointed in his response.

That's the problem for me. Karabak beat him again this season. Mikael D'haguenet will always find an extra gear against him. I think Diamond Harry could be the worst possible value for the RSA at this moment. I'd rather take Punchestowns at 3s than DH at 7s.

[Gingertipster]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Agree, with negatives in the press about DH, think he'll be bigger come March as long as Long Run runs. Agree rather take 100/30 (paddy Power) Punchestowns, though his stable companion is a big danger at 5/1. A combined price of 6/4 looks tempting. With Bensalem at 20/1 added brings it to between 6/5 and 5/4. (33/1 on betfair so between 5/4 and 11/8 (42.9%).

[mileni4uk]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Mikael D'haguenet is still very much on track for the festival. They will run him sometime in the next two weeks and if everything's well, he'll go. He has run over fences in France and few times over hurdles before his novice career last season, so he'll probably have more experience than most of them. Only one prerp run won't be a problem. He takes his races very quickly as well. Doesn't need much space between them.

[Gingertipster]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

Agree' date=' with negatives in the press about DH, think he'll be bigger come March as long as Long Run runs. Agree rather take 100/30 (paddy Power) Punchestowns, though his stable companion is a big danger at 5/1. A combined price of 6/4 looks tempting. With Bensalem at 20/1 added brings it to between 6/5 and 5/4. (33/1 on betfair so between 5/4 and 11/8 (42.9%).[/quote'] In fact too good to be ignored. Backed Punchestowns 100/30 (PP) and Bensalem 33/1 (betfair) with a saver on Long Run 5/1 (B365). Thanks to Fin and Mileni for getting me looking in to this race.

[fintron]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

That's the problem for me. Karabak beat him again this season. Mikael D'haguenet will always find an extra gear against him. I think Diamond Harry could be the worst possible value for the RSA at this moment. I'd rather take Punchestowns at 3s than DH at 7s.

Problem with Mikael D'Haguenet is that he hasnt seen the track all season and it will be a real rush job for him to be spot on for the big day. Anyone backing him does so banking not only on him getting race fit in the space of a month, but also showing enough ability to take to hurdles in a quickly run race that will be just his (likely) second start over fences. Theres too many questions to justify a bet at this stage IMO. The Cheltenham ante-post betting is tricky enough at the present time because of all the postponed races around Christmas, many runners are lagging behind in their preperations and sometimes runners are run over unsuitable trips just to get a run into them. Venetia Williams is a shining example of a trainer suffering. Look at her form around the start of the year over the course of the last five years and compare with this year. She usually hits a SR of 20 % or so, in Jan it was just 5 % and 14 % this month!! As for the RSA, Punchestowns deserves to be the favourite and like Nick Williams, Henderson is on fire, showing no ill effects of the cold snap on his horses preperations. The horse has also made a promising start to his chasing career and probably has a stronger staying credentials than Diamond Harry, but if everything was as black and white as it looks through ante-post betting glasses then Binocular and Kasbah Bliss would have been home and hosed last season...it didnt work that way ;) Looking at the form of the other runners I think the 7/1 for Diamond Harry is a good price. Weird Al is as short as 9/1, up to 11/1, yet on formlines through Knockara Beau, Diamond Harry should have his beating. A couple of the Irish runners could be interesting, Pandorama and Weapons Amnestry but Pandorama for one has no course form. I like my bets to have seen the course before and it because of his course form that I make the 7/1 a decent price. Two wins from three and his third in the Ballymore. Diamond Harry has got a bit of criticism for his jumping but most of these novices are not foot perfect yet and the ones around him in the betting have been making errors too. He is perfectly fine on good -soft ground which is what he will probably get this year, he strongly hinted he'd get the trip the way he ran on Saturday and the yard are bang in form. There is as much reason to expect him to improve for experience come Cheltenham as there is to expect him not the improve the way I see it.......

[Gingertipster]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

Mikael D'haguenet is still very much on track for the festival. They will run him sometime in the next two weeks and if everything's well' date=' he'll go. He has run over fences in France and few times over hurdles before his novice career last season, so he'll probably have more experience than most of them. Only one prerp run won't be a problem. He takes his races very quickly as well. Doesn't need much space between them.[/quote'] Anyone know what the problem has been with Mikael? Can't have been the idea not to run before now. There must be a good chance he won't make it to Cheltenham, being unsound this term. And after an injury, it is questionable whether he'll be able to show the same form this year if turning up.

[fintron]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

Anyone know what the problem has been with Mikael? Can't have been the idea not to run before now. There must be a good chance he won't make it to Cheltenham' date=' being unsound this term. And after an injury, it is questionable whether he'll be able to show the same form this year if turning up.[/quote'] RE Mikael.....

[Gingertipster]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Cheers for that Fin. :ok Wonder what "hopeful" means? Could be he thinks it has a 5% chance of making it to Cheltenham or 40% or 70%. Suspect it's between the latter two. Wish these trainers would put a percentage on. But then again I am "Mr. Percentage". ;)

[mileni4uk]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion The thing about him is, they don't care if they screw his novice campaign if he wins just once or twice this year. he had small setbacks. The last time he was about to run around Xmas and needed a week treatment on his back. It's nothing serious, just two small setbacks. Mullins is extremelly careful with him, because it's not just about his novice chasing season. They won't even care if he doesn't win an RSA. It's all about the Gold Cup next year and with the years to come. If he runs in the next two weeks, he might go to the RSA though.

[mileni4uk]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Actually, he may go for the Arkle. That was the original plan at the start of the season, because he has gears of a 2 miler. The thing is they now have Sports Line who is a genuine contender for the race and all 3 milers disappointed so far (The Midnight Club and Cousin Vinny), so it's probably either the RSA or save him for Punchestown.

[mileni4uk]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Just as we speak he's been backed to 25 for the Arkle .. was 250 a week ago :eek

[Gingertipster]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

In fact too good to be ignored. Backed Punchestowns 100/30 (PP) and Bensalem 33/1 (betfair) with a saver on Long Run 5/1 (B365). Thanks to Fin and Mileni for getting me looking in to this race.

Just watched the ATR interview with Alan King. Seems Bensalem is more likely to run in the William Hill. Have got oy by laying it back at 27/1.

[juliemay]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion sereth to win the coral cup tenderley handled saturday to ensure agood handicap weight no prices yet but was big gamble for ceswitch

[fintron]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Triumph Hurdle Advisor - race he won at Ascot last time out was the same hurdle won by 2009 Triumph winner Zaynar. Horse has won both starts over hurdles now and Nicholls has said he has improved a lot physically since his flat days since being gelded. Nicholls was delighted with his last win and said he wouldnt run him again before Cheltenham. As he says, there are no stars so far and the race looks wide open. Nicholls trained Celestial Halo to win this race in 2009. 14/1 Bet 365.

[bowles10]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

Triumph Hurdle Advisor - race he won at Ascot last time out was the same hurdle won by 2009 Triumph winner Zaynar. Horse has won both starts over hurdles now and Nicholls has said he has improved a lot physically since his flat days since being gelded. Nicholls was delighted with his last win and said he wouldnt run him again before Cheltenham. As he says, there are no stars so far and the race looks wide open. Nicholls trained Celestial Halo to win this race in 2009. 14/1 Bet 365.

on this one, already tipped it up on here at 29.0 prior to Ascot race. It needs soft ground though Fin, my dad knows one of the owners but they want to go for the race.

[diamond1924]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

on this one' date=' already tipped it up on here at 29.0 prior to Ascot race. It needs soft ground though Fin, my dad knows one of the owners but they want to go for the race.[/quote'] I've a notebook entry on Advisor from last month, trainer quoted he'd go straight to Ascot and the horse "has it all".

[Aykay1]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

Just watched the ATR interview with Alan King. Seems Bensalem is more likely to run in the William Hill. Have got oy by laying it back at 27/1.

A mark of 143 seems lenient if he does end up going for the WH

[Gingertipster]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Looks very lenient AK, be surprised if he is not favourite with a mark like that. See the sponsers priced him (and only him) up at 7/1. Will keep an eye on that price. One I do like is Peddler's Cross for the Neptunes Novice Hudle 12/1 (WH). been waiting for the McCain stable to decide which race to go for. Just been on ATR and said he'll run in the Neptunes unless it's soft or heavy. Impressed with the way he won at Haydock. Good attitude and jumps and travels well. Also think it's worth taking 16/1 for Celestial Halo for the Champion. Ran poorly last time and have waited for any physical problem to come to light. Nicholls is good at getting them back for the big race. Celestial goes really well at Cheltenham / the Festival. Went too hard too soon in last years race, the other front runners well beaten. Better than the placings suggest (imo) as the Wincanton race indicates.

[Gingertipster]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

A mark of 143 seems lenient if he does end up going for the WH

Have now taken the 7/1 (WH) Bensalem Some other bookmakers are going 5's, and that seems more like the true price. Expect it to be even shorter than 5/1 on the day. Had his jumping been better it would be shorter.

[fintron]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

Also think it's worth taking 16/1 for Celestial Halo for the Champion. Ran poorly last time and have waited for any physical problem to come to light. Nicholls is good at getting them back for the big race. Celestial goes really well at Cheltenham / the Festival. Went too hard too soon in last years race, the other front runners well beaten. Better than the placings suggest (imo) as the Wincanton race indicates.

I keep looking at this although havent backed anything yet. Nicholls seemed quite buyoant during the stable tour this week..

CELESTIAL HALO: He was second in last year's Champion Hurdle and won the Triumph Hurdle the season before. He's actually just beginning to come to himself and he's really good in the spring. I'm sure the key to this horse is decent ground. His two good runs at Cheltenham - his Champion Hurdle second and Triumph Hurdle win - were both on good spring ground and he's been running on really deep ground this winter. His run last time at Leopardstown was on desperate ground and I actually think that was a better run than last year's Champion Hurdle prep at Sandown where he just got home that day. He improved enormously from Sandown to Cheltenham last year and I think it was the ground as much as anything and I'm hopeful that a dry spell will spark him into life again. He loves Cheltenham and he ran well there earlier in the season when he gave weight to Khyber Kim. The Champion Hurdle looks a very open race on paper this season and you don't want them at their best for the trials. We'll go straight to the Champion Hurdle with him now, but whatever happens at Cheltenham we'll go novice chasing with him next season. We've already schooled him over fences and I think he'll make a smart novice chaser next term.

Best priced 16/1 with Lads, Coral, PP, Hills and Boyle.

[mileni4uk]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Wtf is Madison Du Brelais doing in the Albert Bartlett market? :loon Doesn't like Cheltenham, but interesting at 20/1 nrnb!

[bowles10]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Nicholls comments on RIVALISTE was enough for me to take the 7/1 available NRNB at Bet365 for the Jewson Novices Hcap chase Nicholls has kept the horse away from the racecourse to protect its mark for this race.

[fintron]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

Have now taken the 7/1 (WH) Bensalem Some other bookmakers are going 5's, and that seems more like the true price. Expect it to be even shorter than 5/1 on the day. Had his jumping been better it would be shorter.

One of the guys in Racing Plus fancies this too, there was a bit on Saturday, may have even been Richard Dunwoody, saying they think it may go off as short as 3/1 on the day. His jumping concerns me greatly though although he does seem very well handicapped and it seems a tempting bet.

[Gingertipster]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

One of the guys in Racing Plus fancies this too, there was a bit on Saturday, may have even been Richard Dunwoody, saying they think it may go off as short as 3/1 on the day. His jumping concerns me greatly though although he does seem very well handicapped and it seems a tempting bet.

Fin, I was pleased that someone else thinks Bensalem a good bet, until you mentioned it could be Richard Dunwoody. :lol At this point I'd say 3/1 would be a layers price, with that jumping flaw. 7/1 is well worth taking a chance (imo).

[fintron]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion It might not have been him, but was definately mentioned by one of the guys in Racing Plus, and I no longer have the paper (darn painting). He was 8/1 in a place yesterday but Ive looked past him and gone for an old boy who I hope can defy the weight trends........ BACK PIPE VETERAN FOR FESTIVAL VIC-TORY >William Hill Trophy - Ante-Post Bet With Bet 365 announcing at the weekend that they are offering non-runner no bet terms on all Festival markets, now seems the best time to strike and back OUR VIC for the William Hill Trophy on the opening day. David Pipe's veteran has enjoyed a mini revival this term which has left his trainer with options aplenty for next month. Indeed, the twelve year old currently holds entries in four races (William Hill Trophy on Tuesday and Pertemps Hurdle, Ryanair and the Bryne Plate on Thursday). However, he caught the eye over fences on his last two starts and it would be considered a backwards step if he were to contest the Pertemps. The Ryanair looks a rather ambitious entry even though he won the race two years ago, as his days at the highest level, that also included a nose beating of Kauto Star in the 2008 Totesport Bowl, look numbered. More realistic targets appear to the two handicap chases, and having impressed over 3m+ in recent months, Pipe may well opt for the 3m rather than 2m 5f route for a horse he once believed had the stamina to see out four miles. He actually started his season over shorter in the Paddypower Gold Cup when running credibly from the front but weakening two out, when his heavy weight burden told against less exposed types such as Tranquil Sea and Poquelin, two of those that beat him home and head to Cheltenham as ante-post market leaders for the Grade 1 Ryanair. Nevertheless, he built upon that run when beating the progressive Miss Mitch (fancied for the Racing Post Chase last weekend before being withdrawn after being found lame) at Warwick and he never got chance to test himself in the Boylesports Gold Cup returned to Cheltenham when his inexperienced pilot opted to take the wrong course after the third. The King George was always going to be a tough assignment thereafter, but back in handicaps, he made his class tell in the Peter Marsh Chase with a superb performance off a big weight, staying on gamely to fend off Palypso de Creek for his second win of the season. His last outing again came at Haydock, when second in the Blue Square Gold Cup, but he was outstayed by a less exposed rival, Grand National possible Silver By Nature. Bearing in mind his apparent stamina limitations, the drop back to three miles for the William Hill Trophy looks set to suit, and the handicapper has cut his rating 1 lb to 157, still only 5 lb higher than when a convincing winner at Haydock in January. Even if Pipe does send him to the Bryne Plate, backing with Bet 365 would ensure all stakes are refunded as part of the NRNB terms, and at 16/1 it is worth chancing that this Pond House stalwart takes his place in the William Hill Trophy and lands a fourth course win. Suggested bet: Our Vic 16/1 Bet 365 (NRNB), 0.75 pt win/0.25 pt place (4 places, 1/4 odds).