CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

[fintron]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion I do consider trends from time to time Bill, but I have started to treat them with a bit of caution rather than gospel as I first did when using them. For example in the past trends told me that French breds don't win the national and that beaten horses don't regain their crown in the gold cup, but both trends were broken. Although I crossed a line through any French breds in the National looking back it was stupid when many of the French bred contenders that year including Mon Mome had proven form over marathon trips. What I didn't do was understand why the French bred trend was cited by so many? It seems that French breds are typically suited to shorter distances, but there were exceptions that had already proven themselves over marathon trips despite their breeding and I should have kept them in my analysis I think. With this Arkle the stats say horses over 7 rarely win it (1 winner since 1990 is the trend I found) but historically, every year, there have only tended to be a couple of runners in the above 7 age category anyway, so statistically you'd expect more winners from the 7 or under bracket. Furthermore, those aged over 7 have tended to be no hopers. For example, when Tidal Bay won the race in '08 the 8 year olds were priced 33/1 and 400/1 and the market expected them to finish at the back of the field. Last year when Forpadydeplaster won there were two again. One was was 150/1 rag that noone fancied, but the other Kalahari King, was second, by a short head like you say. So the one time in the last two years there was an eight year old near the fore of the betting, it actually ran well and nearly shattered the trend. Its like a Punters Lounge poster used to say in their signiture (Ive forgotten which member had the quote though)..."I use statistics as much as a drunken man uses lamp posts - for guidance, rather than illumination." I remember that quote because I think it is spot on, statistics can point punters in the right direction but they can often mask the real reasons that the trends appear to show. In this case I think the trend is actually saying look for a chaser that is open to more improvement and is not thoroughly exposed (given the race is open to any horse aged 5+) and I think Bedlam Boy is open to more improvement. He's only had three runs over 2m over fences and could feasibly have more to offer in this sphere. If he made it to Cheltenham and came into the race off the back of a solid run he'd be much shorter than the current price so thought it was a punt worth taking.

[bowles10]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion I like trends ;) i understand they are there to be broken especially long standing ones however what the trends do is narrow down the field to a more manageable field. No one was more upset by Mon Momes win in the National last year than me after tipping it early in the season as one to watch etc I am working on even more detail this year to the trends to include a "profile" of the winner of a number of the races.

[mowgli77]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion I think trends are useful but like Fintron says you have to explore them. I remember doing a big write up for the World Hurdle in 2008, it took me about 3 hrs to look through form and then write a preview that I posted in the Cheltenham sub forum then some newbie smart arse replies and just says "9 year olds don't win World Hurdles". I backed Inglis Drever ante post at about 8's and 4's despite the trends but when you look at those stats you find that there were a lack of runners of a specific age like Fin points out in previous World Hurdles and also that some of those in that age range were complete no hopers so those trends can be a bit skewed. I think you can sometimes use them to narrow a big field but you need to explore those trends such as age stats. You could get lightly raced horses that may have had a year out through injury etc and still remain progressive. :ok

[bowles10]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion National 2009 - no french bred in over 100 years - result 100/1 winner World hurdle - no 9yo winner - Inglis drever wins as a 9yo Champion Chase - no 5yo winner - Master Minded wins as a 5yo just picking out 3 high profile ones in last 2 years which shows they can be broken

[bowles10]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion personally i think the handicaps are better for the trends at cheltenham rather than the grade 1's :ok its getting closer............:ok

[billy the punter]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Trends have to make sense. If there is a logical reason as to why they relate to a race, rather than mere coincidence, I believe they can be useful.

[bowles10]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

Trends have to make sense. If there is a logical reason as to why they relate to a race' date=' rather than mere coincidence, I believe they can be useful.[/quote'] :oksums it up billy really, i first started in 2006 with trends and am still learning. I am a stats man and thats what it is to me, thats why some of us like it and others dont. You either like stats and believe in them or not. i once questioned a leading journo on why he had tipped a horse in a big race at a flat meeting when the stats / trends showed that horses drawn 1-7 were not favoured. He was certain the draw stat would be overcome, of course i was right & he wasnt! So he based everything on form, ground, trainer, jockey etc but discounted a heavily biased draw stat.

[billvernon]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion I understand Flintron point of view regarding Trends etc .. I was on Inglis in the world cup even though against trend (9yo) - also on Kauto Star in Gold Cup (cannot regain gold cup) and I had Katchit in the Champion (5yo) so I do not religously follow the Trends however I do think it helps to whittle down the field and then you look at the main protaganists in the race in some cases the horses stand out because there is no opposition upto the same class or its a muddling race that you cannot quite decide who to chose so you chose who you think stands best chance its down to the individual. In the case of the Arkle I khave looked at the 4 horses and my reasoning is this - Sizing Europe was a dead cert to some before he ran against Captain Cee Bee and then everyone was saying look Captain would have won if he had stood up.It showed Sizing was vunerable.And not the Dead Cert as quoted.Also I have had Sizing a few times and had my fingers burned - remember when he was favourite for the Champion Hurdle. Regarding Captain Cee Bee he is a good horse but I just get the impression he is slightly vunerable with his jumping he seems to brush the fences a few more times than I like.And is known for his leg problems. So I looked at the next two horses in the betting and I liked the way Somersby ran in the Henry VIII I liked his size and the way he stayed on. I also like a horse sired by "presenting" his progeny did well in Cheltenham Festival last season. Then there is Tatiano he ran a good trial is French bred and is trained by Paul Nicholls who wants to win this race.Both these two horses fill a lot of Trend statistics the French trained statistic has worked for me in the past so I am inclined to use something that has worked. Obviously all will be answered on the day I will probably get the " I told you so line" . But how else does a punter choose surely the methodology is what I have done in this case its all a gamble right you just use methods to increase your chances. Bowles I have found Trends do help in some cases amazingly well - the history of Cheltenham all the years statistics and trial races previous to the festival are great pointers - some years it works some years it goes spectacularly wrong and I end up saying - damn how did that happen. But if we could predict every race hell we would be running websites and making fortunes. One of the biggest things I have noticed this year is that a lot of Trainers are saying they are not running horse now until Cheltenham Festival.Its done great and has a great chance so not running until March. I will state this and it is from following the CHELTENHAM Festival for last 15 years most horses in most races were 1st or 2nd last time out they also had run late January to mid February of the same year as the festival.Check the stats it has been proven time and time again.So why this new trend of not running horses until March ? I think horses need to have a prep run in the Jan - Feb period.And need to have been placed.

[fintron]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion I agree Bill, I'd like to see the horse given a recent prep run, otherwise we're pricing them up on form from many months ago and its hard to tell whether they have held their form over that period. If the trainers are keeping them in their stable boxes we're gonna have to do a lot of guesswork unless we get inside info on their well being.

[billvernon]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Cheltenham 2009 Hello I would like to acknowledge Bowles for the info ideas below . The following is some useful info regarding winners at Cheltenham 2009 I think it gives something worth thinking about when looking at the festival this year. especially whittling large fields down. Day 1 Month Last Ran --Feb-Feb-DEC-Feb-Dec-Feb --- 4/6 ---In same year as festival LTO Pos--------- 1 ---2--- 1--- 3 ---1 ---1 --- 5/6 ---1st or 2nds Position last run Pre-Runs-------- 5 ---4 ---3--- 3 ---3 ---2 ----6/6 ---2 -5 runs pevious in season Age -------------6---7----8 ---6 ---10---5----------- Note: 10 year old Guarde Champetre CD Specialist Day 2 Month Last Ran-- Jan-Feb-Feb-Jan-DEC-Feb-DEC ---5/7 ---In Same year as festival LTO Pos---------- 2---1---1---1---1---1----1 -----7/7 ---1st or 2nds Position last run Pre-Runs--------- 5---4 ---3---2---4---8---2 ------6/7 ---2 -5 runs pevious in season Age --------------6---5---7---6---6---4---6 --------------Vincent O'Brian race 4yo only Day 3 Month Last Ran Jan-Feb-DEC-Jan-Feb-Feb 5/6 In Same Year as festival LTO Pos 1 1 6 1 2 9 4/6 1st or 2nds Position last run Pre-Runs 3 7 2 3 5 5 5/6 2 -5 runs pevious in season Age 5 7 8 6 8 9 Day 4 Month Last Ran Jan-Feb-Jan-DEC-Jan-Feb-Feb 6/7 In Same Year as festival LTO Pos 1 9 2 1 1 4 2 5/7 1st or 2nds Position last run Pre-Runs 2 4 2 3 3 4 5 7/7 2 -5 runs pevious in season Age 4 5 6 9 7 6 6 JCB Triumph 4 yo only Old horses 10+ do not fair well - except in specialised races the Cross Country has been won by Spot the Difference at age 10 11 12 and also not many 9 year olds except in the 3m+ chases which is to be expected . GOLD Cup 3m2f 7-9yo's & Fulke Walwyn 3m 1f 8yo - 9yo - 10yo olds have age and stamina for these type of races Substantial of races Number - have horses 1st 2nd LTO Also Majority have horses last run in --- Mid-Jan to Mid-Feb period same year as the festival Note: Imperial Commander & Kauto Star both had 1sts in season and run well fresh. Dunguib & Ninetieth Minute had a 1st in December Dunguibs race - Horses have gap of 3 months or even 3 weeks so not a shock. Guarde Champetre and Wichita Lineman both classy and run well fresh had 1st's in December so gap not significant. In 5 out of 6 cases of horses last run in December it can be argued that these could be spotted and ok as far as recent run gap is concerned. Position wise last race - the one that was 9th LTO - 3rd day Cheltenham is expected AS Fulke Walwyn - HANDICAP RACE - reason RACE has such High price winnners .DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF HORSE IN THIS RACE FELL OR PULLED UP LAST RACE. Also Imperial Commander - 3rd day Cheltenham - was placed 6th LTO to Kauto in King George Dec 08 but good 1st November 08. day 4 - American Trilogy 11.0 in Handicap was 9th LTO - not surprised - Vincent O'Brian HANDICAP race is notoriously hard to get winner. And Andytown 11.2 in Handicap - Martin pipe Conditional was 4th LTO another race hard to predict and no trend as of yet as first time this race was run. The Handicaps are always bringing up a shocker can get the 66/1 price or 50/1 popping up in these races. William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase Grade 3 - Wichita Lineman (IRE) 5/1F 8 10-9 Glenfarclas Handicap Chase Cross Country Chase - Garde Champetre (FR) 7/2 10 11-12 SPECIALISED RACE WEIGHT CARRIER CAN WIN THIS (Spot the Difference) Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle) Grade 3 - Ninetieth Minute (IRE) 14/1 6 10-3 Fred Winter Juvenile Novices' Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 - Silk Affair (IRE) 11/1 4 10-4 Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase (Listed Race) - Chapoturgeon (FR) 8/1 5 10-11 Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Listed Race) - Kayf Aramis 16/1 7 10-5 Freddie Williams Festival Plate (Handicap Chase) Grade 3 - Something Wells (FR) 33/1 8 10-7 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase - Character Building (IRE) 16/1 9 11-12 t classy stayer shock result 2009 - last 5 years .. under or around 11.0 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 - American Trilogy (IRE) 20/1 5 11-0 b Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle Class 2 - Andytown (IRE) 25/1 6 11-2 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 - Oh Crick (FR) 7/1 6 10-01 2009 Fulke Walwyn was a bit of a shocker- winner usually around 11.0 or below.check for classy weight carriers who stay. Cross Country is such a specialised race so not a shock a weight carrier can win this this can cut fields right down. in majority of other Handicaps - note weights around or below ll.0 mark

[bowles10]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Thanks Billvernon, i have been looking at those stats i put up last year. I would only back horses that finished LTO 1st or 2nd apart from the handicap races as thats where the value is sometimes. I had Something wells on the trends last year (took 46 on betfair) and 2 yrs ago hit 2 50/1 winners. I go a bit deeper than some trends and include some other stats also, thats why sometimes trends analysis does differ slightly. They certainly dont win you every race but ypu have to have a method of downsizing these large fields. Also dont forget the CHeltenham factor, horses normally win here when they have had a run at the course or were placed in previous festivals. Again, that counts for a lot of horses but it does rule out some others.

[mileni4uk]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion The most important thing for me is and will ever be the ability of the horse. Trends, jockeys, conditions etc. are always inferior factor swining in direction bet or no bet. I'll never pay too much attention on trends though if I believe a horse has the ability to win a race despite trends from the last 100 years saying he can't. I respect the guys using trends here a lot though. I admire the way you find winners with statts. Backing a statts horse over a form horse is not for me though. Anyway it just proves how good the forum is with trends specialists, flat specialists, jump specialists and now US horse racing specialist ;)

[mileni4uk]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion On that comment, I don't see Bedlam Boy as a horse progressive enough to win an Arkle. Kalahari King looked different type last year, but then again trainer comments are interesting and Ferdy usually knows what he has. If it's true, then 40s and 50s could be a nice e/w bet and he would probably be a lot shorter on the day. My opinion is he won't be good enough to win it and this chasing career is a bit belated and he didn't look anything special over hurdles either.

[billvernon]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Bowles - interesting comment on the I only back horses coming from a Handicap and 1st or 2nd LTO - You find high priced winners using this method then Bowles? Are you always looking for the high priced winner and not the more single priced winner I find the prices at Cheltenham are not that bad as you get 1/4 odds on all races and a lot of horses are quite good prices higher than they would be if running elsewhere by quite a lot.In normal racing you would struggle to make a lot from these horses as they are normally at such crap prices odds on in most cases. But at Cheltenham you can get a good return even backing E/W if you catch price right. Also its the festival you get a fantastic race for your money . God I love the CHELTENHAM fESTIVAL !!!;)

[fintron]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion kauto looks hot for the gold cup but the price is too short to interest me right now and the same applies to denman. Ive backed what a friend for the sake of interest and an opportunity to arb later on and have backed Rare Bob at 410.0 for the same reason. Improving Irish runner that will start shorter on the day if he lines up, allowing a later trade.

[mileni4uk]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion With that price it seems to me he won't even be entered, mate. It's declarations time these few days. 24 and 43 entered accordingly for Queen Mom and Ryanair today.

[fintron]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

With that price it seems to me he won't even be entered' date=' mate. It's declarations time these few days. 24 and 43 entered accordingly for Queen Mom and Ryanair today.[/quote'] He was entered for the Gold Cup yesterday so Id be annoyed if they pulled him out one day later! He does also hold a Ryanair entry but I think he'll get outpaced over that trip and that he may end up going for the big one, thats if connections don't wimp out against the two class horses!

[mileni4uk]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Yea, might be. Haven't seen any news on Gold Cup declarations, so could have missed it. He is a lot shorter for the Ryanair though. Hope you manage to trade it. Can't see him winning it, but he can definitely be an outside shot on the w/o the big two market. I think a horse ridden to be 3rd might sneak it there ahead of the likes of Imperial Commander, who would try to go with Denman and Kauto and would probably fail.

[billy the punter]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

Yea' date=' might be. Haven't seen any news on Gold Cup declarations, so could have missed it. He is a lot shorter for the Ryanair though. Hope you manage to trade it. Can't see him winning it, but he can definitely be an outside shot on the w/o the big two market.[b'] I think a horse ridden to be 3rd might sneak it there ahead of the likes of Imperial Commander, who would try to go with Denman and Kauto and would probably fail.

I agree with this. Although I believe that Imperial Commander and Carruthers are the 3rd and 4th best chasers in the line up I think they may pay for trying to win the race - especially as they are prominent racers. I have a few in mind for my w/o bet but being as it could be down to how the race is run I think it's best to wait a bit, until we get a real feel of who is running.

[fintron]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion thats what puts me off imperial commander too. I know he ran kauto close over 3m but a strongly run gold cup may stretch his stamina, and denman should really stretch them and make it a stamina test. I think that it will suit rare bob whi is a strong stayer. He didnt see out the irish national trip of 3m 5f but he chould probably see out a strongly run 3m 2f 110yd imo. He is 25/1 w/o the big two, and engaged on sunday at fairyhouse im inclined to take that now.

[markysimmo]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion In the Champion Chase what do you guys think about Twist Magic at 10s with Hills.. Won by a mile in December, is it good enough to beat Master Minded, etc.. Will Ruby ride Twist again or Master Minded ??

[diamond1924]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Guys, can you believe that Coral have priced up the Xcountry race and that Garde Champetre is an amazing 3/1 !!!!:loon:loon:loon He's sure to be odds on at start time, can't believe this price is actually available. :hope I've gone all 100pts of my ante-post budget

[bowles10]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

In the Champion Chase what do you guys think about Twist Magic at 10s with Hills.. Won by a mile in December, is it good enough to beat Master Minded, etc.. Will Ruby ride Twist again or Master Minded ??

The horse has never run well at Cheltenham to be honest and although seems back to his best, had it all his own way in the Tingle Creek over the sandown fences - nice flat track. Cheltenham is a different story. Master minded must be at least 15lb better but the injury may be a factor this year as its comeback race will be at Cheltenham which isnt ideal.

[markysimmo]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

The horse has never run well at Cheltenham to be honest and although seems back to his best, had it all his own way in the Tingle Creek over the sandown fences - nice flat track. Cheltenham is a different story. Master minded must be at least 15lb better but the injury may be a factor this year as its comeback race will be at Cheltenham which isnt ideal.

Thanks for the info Bowles...

[Aykay1]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

Guys, can you believe that Coral have priced up the Xcountry race and that Garde Champetre is an amazing 3/1 !!!!:loon:loon:loon He's sure to be odds on at start time, can't believe this price is actually available. :hope I've gone all 100pts of my ante-post budget

Hmmm, not sure mate. He is a worthy favourite but he has started 7/2 and 4/1 for the last 2 years, so 3/1 is probably about right.

[billvernon]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion fill your boots boys 3/1 is a good price grab it as he should be shorter weight carrier course specialist my cert for the Cheltenham festival .

[billvernon]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion Pul Nicholls - was waxing lyrical in his column in racing post with regards to masterminded said he would be happy to run him in the game spirit he is looking that fit.Said it was up to the owners.However said he would be happy if went straight to cheltenham.Sounds pretty confident. Also sung praises about celestial halo saying he has worked out how to train him and that he had done to much for his last run and that he is looking good.I do think he stands a good e/w in his race at cheltenham.

[fintron]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

One of the biggest things I have noticed this year is that a lot of Trainers are saying they are not running horse now until Cheltenham Festival.Its done great and has a great chance so not running until March. I will state this and it is from following the CHELTENHAM Festival for last 15 years most horses in most races were 1st or 2nd last time out they also had run late January to mid February of the same year as the festival.Check the stats it has been proven time and time again.So why this new trend of not running horses until March ? I think horses need to have a prep run in the Jan - Feb period.And need to have been placed.

For this reason I'm on Knockara Beau for the RSA. George Charlton has been quoted as saying he feels its important to keep fitness up, and he plans to give the horse a run every month to keep it on its toes for the festival. Although he doesnt yet hold and entry for this race the price on Betfair offers hope and he is due to run at Haydock this month. He has made a nice start to his chasing career and the step up in trip would be a logical way of continuing that improvement. 25/1 with Stan James.

[mileni4uk]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

For this reason I'm on Knockara Beau for the RSA. George Charlton has been quoted as saying he feels its important to keep fitness up' date=' and he plans to give the horse a run every month to keep it on its toes for the festival. Although he doesnt yet hold and entry for this race the price on Betfair offers hope and he is due to run at Haydock this month. He has made a nice start to his chasing career and the step up in trip would be a logical way of continuing that improvement. 25/1 with Stan James.[/quote'] If you worry about him not taking place in the RSA don't, trainer said the other day he is looking to give him a run in the next few weeks and then he is going straight for the RSA. I have 60 on betfair and while I think he could run a big race, he might just find one or two too good.

[fintron]

Re: CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion nice one. 60s is a great price for such a progressive type if the trainer confirmed he is going for the race. After Haydock you may even be able to lay a bit of it off. He is a horse i have kept an eye on throughout his chase career. Alexmac tipped me it at the punters lounge meet up over hurdles at Musselburgh last year so the name has stuck.

If you worry about him not taking place in the RSA don't' date=' trainer said the other day he is looking to give him a run in the next few weeks and then he is going straight for the RSA. I have 60 on betfair and while I think he could run a big race, he might just find one or two too good.[/quote']