BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings

I might put ++ on that one. Would have won by a distance when falling and then won on the bridle. When Zaidpour was fit' date=' they were aiming him at the Supreme. Now he's Triumph bound with Zaidpour out injured :ok[/quote'] Yes he is definitely capable of better than his LTO form (which isn't much), but obviously he could only win as easily as he did. I saw the race where he fell, he would've won a comfortable 6l or so but the form is shocking. The horse who would've been 2nd if not hampered by him (Save My Blushes) has been beaten by everything. The eventual winner (Sword Fish), who would've been 3rd, was beaten 37l off a mark of 99 NTO. The eventual 2nd (Firm Foundations), who would've been 4th, was pulled up NTO and then 6th in a maiden hurdle. The eventual 4th (Tara Warrior) has also been well beaten since. I agree he won easy and will improve but he is woefully under priced in my opinion, as low as 7/1.

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings I agree he is a runner, and to be feared - I was talking merely as a betting proposition, and as someone who has missed the boat with the prices. ;):D

[mileni4uk]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Yes he's underpriced, becaus he's been gambled. Started from 40 on betfair and is now 10. You could also argue why Rite Of Passage is so short for the Neptune when only running once and beating a moderate field. Other horses have far better form than him.

[mileni4uk]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings This is when you take form under consideration. The other side of things is the reputation and ROP could well be the 2m4f Dunguib. Found the Champion Bumper too sharp just like Quel Esprit did.

[mileni4uk]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings The irish gambles are usually pretty accurate that's all :eyes

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings

This is when you take form under consideration. The other side of things is the reputation and ROP could well be the 2m4f Dunguib. Found the Champion Bumper too sharp just like Quel Esprit did.

Absolutely, the fact he managed to finish 3rd last year deserves much credit and for me he is much more interesting and exciting that Dunguib (my betting head on of course). I backed him on the flat when he won his maiden and saw his handicap win, I knew he would make a fine hurdler but due to the uncertainty with the races I put him to the back of my mind - until you mentioned the money for the 2m5f the other day. To be fair that HAD to be the option, he will improve so much for it, but it's always nice to have some confirmation.

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings

This is when you take form under consideration. The other side of things is the reputation and ROP could well be the 2m4f Dunguib. Found the Champion Bumper too sharp just like Quel Esprit did.

ROP has achieved much more IMO. He has Festival form at an inadeuate trip and decent flat form. Even though he is recently gone 9s to 5s, I think he is among the best value of all the current markets. Like I said above the only danger with an ante-post bet was getting the race wrong. The more I look at him the more I think he is a star.

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings

ROP has achieved much more IMO. He has Festival form at an inadeuate trip and decent flat form. Even though he is recently gone 9s to 5s, I think he is among the best value of all the current markets. Like I said above the only danger with an ante-post bet was getting the race wrong. The more I look at him the more I think he is a star.

And ROP's form LTO is very out anyway, the 2nd, Grey Soldier, was a very easy winner NTO. :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings And the fact that he didn't travel well last year. It wasn't mentioned anywhere. Think Weld mentioned it for the first time after his handicap win on the flat and I took a note. Should have paid more attention to his flat form, where he needed his trip. He was never going to be Supreme bound. If not that, should have at least traded. He was 20 for the Neptune before his hurdling debut. Well, I guess you can't have them all :)

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings

And the fact that he didn't travel well last year. It wasn't mentioned anywhere. Think Weld mentioned it for the first time after his handicap win on the flat and I took a note. Should have paid more attention to his flat form' date=' where he needed his trip. He was never going to be Supreme bound. If not that, should have at least traded. He was 20 for the Neptune before his hurdling debut. Well, I guess you can't have them all :)[/quote'] Indeed, although I don't mind "paying for info" with ante-post betting. By that I mean, taking less of a price in return for more knowledge, in this case the knowledge was the plan/route. That said, I agree, this one was gettable - same with the one we were talking about the other day, Taranis. :wall

[mileni4uk]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings When we were talking about Taranis we should have been "on the ball" as you say and backed pre-race. Was massive price w/o the big two :( I'm gutted about ROP after his last win too. I was telling you all these things and he was 8/1 and I went to check few hours later and he was 6/1. Just watched his run in the November handicap. So funny. 7 horses in line disputing 2nd place. He quickened past them like they had stopped.

[stewartd14]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings One thing that looks likely, to me anyway, is that the Triumph will be going across the water. The UK juveniles just dont look good enough to me to be able to cope with the likes of Secant Star (heart leading head :tongue2), Alaivan and Carlito Brigante. That said, however, it doesnt look that strong of a Triumph this year, and if it rains - well ..... Anak anyone ? Cant have Alaivan myself - I just cant excuse his defeat behind Carlito Brigante, who still looks overpriced at the current prices. Granted he didnt beat much today, but where's the best form for the Triumph ? One thing I am pretty sure is, is that Mille Chief is the worst value bet of the festival. As for Rite of Passage, I speak with a slightly clouded view due to my 7-8/1 ante post voucher, but yes - I think he can be special. The beauty with him is he is still a year younger than Dubguib, and will have a bright future. Clearly handles Cheltenham as well. Time will tell, and at 1 am in the morning, I cant think with much of a clear head :\

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings

When we were talking about Taranis we should have been "on the ball" as you say and backed pre-race. Was massive price w/o the big two :( I'm gutted about ROP after his last win too. I was telling you all these things and he was 8/1 and I went to check few hours later and he was 6/1. Just watched his run in the November handicap. So funny. 7 horses in line disputing 2nd place. He quickened past them like they had stopped.

And we're yet to see the best of him.

[stewartd14]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings For what its worth, I am not pi55ing about and missing the price this time - Carlito Brigante @ 10s got to be a bet I would say. Brings the best form (IMO) into the race, and as I said, I think Mille Chief is vulnerable. 10/1 seems very generous considering. NOTE: VCBet and Totesport are paying 4 places ante post on this race.

[mileni4uk]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings

Cant have Alaivan myself - I just cant excuse his defeat behind Carlito Brigante' date=' who still looks overpriced at the current prices.[/quote'] He was so keen when he got beat lto though. Still travelled well and beat the rest easily, but Carlito Brigante is no mug as we now know and settled well. Alaivan was impressive on his debut and jumps for fun. Let's wait and see.

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings

One thing that looks likely, to me anyway, is that the Triumph will be going across the water. The UK juveniles just dont look good enough to me to be able to cope with the likes of Secant Star (heart leading head :tongue2), Alaivan and Carlito Brigante. That said, however, it doesnt look that strong of a Triumph this year, and if it rains - well ..... Anak anyone ? Cant have Alaivan myself - I just cant excuse his defeat behind Carlito Brigante, who still looks overpriced at the current prices. Granted he didnt beat much today, but where's the best form for the Triumph ? One thing I am pretty sure is, is that Mille Chief is the worst value bet of the festival. As for Rite of Passage, I speak with a slightly clouded view due to my 7-8/1 ante post voucher, but yes - I think he can be special. The beauty with him is he is still a year younger than Dubguib, and will have a bright future. Clearly handles Cheltenham as well. Time will tell, and at 1 am in the morning, I cant think with much of a clear head :\

I think both sides have a lack of strength in depth. Mille Chief is poor value at the moment and I also think Pittoni is a baffling low price. Anak? Who? :lol If it's really soft and they go quick enough I can see him running into the money, so many future 3milers do. Heart ruling head maybe, it's catching. ;) Although the Fred Winter is an obvious option for all those 120-odd rated. I think Carlito is the form horse, and today's win is the best form so far this season, the ratings certainly suggest so. Ok, it's slightly less than Pistolet's early win but I that was early-season form and should always be treated with caution (slight hindsight). Around a track like Musselburgh, Ultimate is a genuine high 120's horse and he picked him up with ease - also the handicapper has massively under rated Orsippus and Melange. With this in mind I have to include Alaivan, yes he was well beaten but I'm always prepared to forgive Triumph horses one run - after all it's very rare of a Triumph winner to be unbeaten. I think juvenile hurdlers learn so much from a defeat and you need to be battle-hardy to win the Triumph. Celestial Halo, Katchit, Spectroscope, Detroit City, Scolardy all had a blip on the way to winning. World Hurdle 2012 - RFC ROP/Anak (NAP).

[mileni4uk]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings

World Hurdle 2012 - RFC ROP/Anak (NAP).

:rollin:rollin:rollin:rollin:rollin:rollin

[mileni4uk]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings I'd say ROP vs Dunguib vs Hurricane Fly vs Walkon - Champ Hurdle 2012 :loon

[stewartd14]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings

I think Carlito is the form horse, and today's win is the best form so far this season, the ratings certainly suggest so. Ok, it's slightly less than Pistolet's early win but I that was early-season form and should always be treated with caution (slight hindsight). Around a track like Musselburgh, Ultimate is a genuine high 120's horse and he picked him up with ease - also the handicapper has massively under rated Orsippus and Melange. With this in mind I have to include Alaivan, yes he was well beaten but I'm always prepared to forgive Triumph horses one run - after all it's very rare of a Triumph winner to be unbeaten. I think juvenile hurdlers learn so much from a defeat and you need to be battle-hardy to win the Triumph.

Yes, I agree - got to forgive these juveniles 1 bad run. However, I just cant see Alaivan reversing the form, and from a prices point of view, I dont think Alaivan deserves to be within 2 points of Carlito. If Carlito is 10's, Alaivan should be 16/1 - 18/1 in my opinion.

World Hurdle 2012 - RFC ROP/Anak (NAP).

Whats happening in 2011 like ? :tongue2

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings

I'd say ROP vs Dunguib vs Hurricane Fly vs Walkon - Champ Hurdle 2012 :loon

:D Dunguib is going to be so confused at Cheltenham, it's the first time he will have seen an opponent that can hit 30mph.

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings

Yes, I agree - got to forgive these juveniles 1 bad run. However, I just cant see Alaivan reversing the form, and from a prices point of view, I dont think Alaivan deserves to be within 2 points of Carlito. If Carlito is 10's, Alaivan should be 16/1 - 18/1 in my opinion. Whats happening in 2011 like ? :tongue2

Yeah, I think the next run for Alaivan is pivotal - understatement I know. 2011 - Coral Cup. :lol Nah seriously, the 5yo season can be difficult.

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings According 75+ Acquisitive 69 Advisor 127 Am I Blue 103 Anak 130 Alaivan 127+ Alazan 119 Albulharith 90 Alhaque 106x Al Qeddaaf 116 Arabian Silk 85 Ascendant 108 Ashes Summer 101 Astracad 109 Aven Mac 73 Baccalaureate 127x Bachelor Days 1 Bahamian Ceiliedh 57 Bahkov 80 Bandanaman 100 Barbarian 100x Bari Bay 69 Barizan 134x Barwell Bridge 124 Beat The Devil 70 Beat The Shower 103 Bedarra Boy 111 Beidh Tine Anseo 112 Billy Smart 61 Blakeneys Pet 48 Blazing Buck 112xx Blue Nymph 113 Blue Tango 99 Blushing Soul 101x Bocamix 124 Bothy 123 Bounty Reef 1 Brad's Luck 90 Braveheart Move 114 Bromhead 87 Bubses Boy 66 Camomile 1 Captain Walcot 11 Carlito Brigante 136 Catchmeifyoucan 1 Causeway King 124 Ciceron 111 Coeur Brule 102 Coka 46 Comprimario 93 Cornish Castle 98 Corredor Son 111 Cross Appeal 116 Dalrymple 90 Dannios 30 Dark Oasis 109 Dayanara 1 Decision 89+ Descaro 102x Devil To Pay 113 Diktalina 122 Doctor Deejay 112 Doran's Lodge 94 Douchkette 67 Dream Risk 102 Dreamwalk 102x Drumshambo 121 Drussell 93 Dr Valentine 106 Dubai Creek 66 Duke Of Urbino 1 Ebiayn 109+/97 Emirates World 55 Epee Celeste 112 Evening Sunset 120 Everaad 93 Extreme Impact 107x Father Figure 77 Fin Vin De Leu 110 First Bay 115 Flannel 86 Fongoli 86 Game Roseanna 70 Garter Knight 90 George Nympton 123 Gilded Age 115+ Good Lord 76 Googoobarabajagal 106 Group Leader 107 Gwyre 105 Halling Park 98 Hallstat 105 Hector's House 115 Hector Spectre 51+ Heez A Cracker 103+ Helieorbea 113 Heredias 90 Highway Code 97 History Lesson 85+ Hunterview 122+ Hydrant 82 Icy Colt 71 Igneous 75 Ingenue 94 Investisement 90+ Jeronimo Joe 109 K'Gari 93 Kapowee 1 Khan Tengri 102 Kind Heart 112 King's Chorister 74 King's Counsel 101 Kings Troop 114 Kochanski 95 Kudu Country 124 Lady Of Ashcott 52 Lady Rusty 71 Lakeman 105x Lastkingofscotland 87 Leblon 110 Lively Fling 113 Luthien 90x Mallory 104 Marsool 118 Maskateer 1 Master Fong 114 Mosstown 108 Melange 119 Me Voici 120 Midnight Bay 29 Mille Chief 127+ Moggy 69 Mohanad 122 Monsieur Jourdain 123 Mosstown 108 Mr Melodious 55 Mr Prolific 90 Ms Slocombe 94 Mt Kintyre 44 Mymateeric 109 Myshkin 70 Nafaath 111+ Navajo Nation 71 Nayessence 75 New Tricks 105 Nicky Nutjob 113 Night Knight 96 No Sting 111 Notus De La Tour 125 Olofi 130 Open Day 103+ Order Order 1 Orsippus 114 Orzare 125 Owls FC 60 Pacific Bay 66 Peace Corps 94 Perception 41+ Pergamon 6 Peter Grimes 120 Pezula 40 Pistolet Noir 134 Pittoni 120 Pokfulham 109 Prince Pippin 121 Princess Soroya 82 Puzzlemaster 82+ Quick Single 38 Racingisdreaming 100 Rajamand 113 Ravati 113 Rawaaj 91 Reaction 123x Regal Lyric 100 Rio Gael 52 Riptide 122 Riskareas 122 Rougham 123 Royal Max 112

Royal Mix 123+ Royal Premium 74 Rupestrain 127 Salontrye 97 Sang Bleu 126 Santo Thomas 86+ Screaming Brave 122 Seargeant Pink 119 Seaquel 73 Secant Star 124+ Shifting Gold 115 Singarpore Reef 116+ Sir John 56 Six Of Clubs 1 Sohcahtoa 72 Some Time Good 67 Space Telescope 107 Spiv 82 Stellar Cause 1 Stars Du Granits 121 Stormy Morning 50 Stormy Weather 124 Strong Storm 100 Super Fourteen 83 Supernoverre 96 Takelli 110 Tarawa Atoll 103 Theologist 105 The Saucy Snipe 79 Toldedo Gold 104 Toujours Souriante 85 Transporter 91 Tropical Bachelor 93 Troubletimestwo 119 True Britannia 119 Trumpstoo 120 Turn To Dreams 24 Ultimate 130x Vain Betoli 1 Valentine Bay 1 Valid Point 45+ Veiled 120 Venture Capitalist 71 Veronicas Boy 110 Warrior One 108 Watergate 107+ Westlin' Winds 132 Windpfeil 94 Woodlark Island 85 Worth A King's 108 Zarinski 116 Zelos Diktator 90 Zepnove 115

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings 1.30 Market Rasen Blue Nymph 113 Veronicas Boy 110 Astracad 109 Open Day 103+ Everaad 93 Sitwell 20+ Park Lane FTO Pool Of Knowledge FTO State General FTO Transformer FTO Think this is the only juvenile race this week.

[fintron]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Billy, I noticed The Saucy Snipe off the list is making her handicap debut today off 86 at Lingfield (3.20). Has she shown enough on those maiden runs to warrant an interest today at 25/1 or does she look happier on fast ground?

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings

Billy' date=' I noticed The Saucy Snipe off the list is making her handicap debut today off 86 at Lingfield (3.20). Has she shown enough on those maiden runs to warrant an interest today at 25/1 or does she look happier on fast ground?[/quote'] Well I think the lower rated types will improve a few pound once handicapping so she would come into thing at the price. I've never been a fan of the yard though. May struggle to get home on the ground like you say, but at the price a small bet wouldn't hurt.

[fintron]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Ok, I will have a small interest seen as this is her handicap debut, cheers.

[BillyHills]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings For what its worth, I agree with Stewart, i've been doing the novices all season and time and time again the Irish horses have come out best, i dont expect anything to change in the next month.

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings

For what its worth' date=' I agree with Stewart, i've been doing the novices all season and time and time again the Irish horses have come out best, i dont expect anything to change in the next month.[/quote'] I think the best two Irish-trained are the best two full stop; Carlito Brigante and Alaivan (potentially). Even if you add Secant Star to that group, is there much else? There is no strength in depth, but that is common with their juveniles, it's not really their thing, they tend to give them more time than some of our connections. Juvenile novices are a different kettle of fish to older novices. Compared to the other novice events their record in the Triumph is poor - for that very reason. Triumph - 1 Irish winner from last 11 Supreme Novice - 8 Irish winners from last 11 RSA/Ballymore/Neptune Novice - 4 Irish winners from last 11 (7 from last 15) I believe CB and Alaivan are the two to be with, but not because the Irish have a great crop, just they have two decent types. This year, there is no strength in depth in the UK either - has to be said.

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Both Zaynar and Walkon were officially rated in the 150's before finishing 1-2 last season. I can't see anyone (bar Carlito Brigante) hitting those heights before the day. Mille Chief 5/1 - 127+ Carlito Brigante 10/1 - 136 Secant Star 10/1 - 124+ Alaivan 12/1 - 127+ Advisor 14/1 - 127 Pittoni 16/1 - 120 Royal Mix 16/1 - 123+ Westlin' Winds 20/1 - 132 Notus De La Tour 25/1 - 125 Pistolet Noir 25/1 - 134 Me Voici 33/1 - 120 Sunwise 33/1 - unraced Super Kenny 33/1 - unraced Olofi 33/1 - 130 According 33/1 - 75+ Mosstown 33/1 - 108 Sang Bleu 40/1 - 126 Barizan 40/1 - 134x Orzare 40/1 - 125 Blue Nymph 40/1 - 113 (will be 120 with fillies' allowance) Remember Now 40/1 - unraced Souter Point 50/1 - unraced Baccalaureate 50/1 - 127x Diktalina 50/1 -122 (will be 129 with fillies' allowance) Anak 50/1 - 130 Barwell Bridge 50/1 - 124 Ascendant 50/1 - 108 Bothy 50/1 - 123 :ok

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Not long realised that the official handicap mark of every horse can be found on the BHB website, and having just worked out there are filters on there, I have been looking at the juvenile hurdlers. Thought it would be interesting to see how the two ratings compare, mine and the handicappers. Unlike the handicapper I rate every horse after it's first run, regardless of results so my ratings are up before. In a way it's better as I cannot be swayed by the official marks. Surprised there are so many that are close, even identical - normally from a punting point of view I would want to differ in opinion as much as possible (and then capitalise on those differences), however as there are hardly any juvenile handicaps it's less important. It will be interesting to see how my ratings fare next month for the big handicap at Cheltenham (Fred Winter). Anyway here is the list of those that are officially rated. My rating is first, those with a ? ran at the weekend and are obviously being re-assessed by the handicapper. Advisor 127 - 135 Am I Blue 103 - 100 Anak 130 - 124? Alazan 119 - 119 Ashes Summer 101 - 92 Baccalaureate 127x - 134? Bari Bay 69 - 70 Barizan 134x - 142 Barwell Bridge 124 - 130 Beidh Tine Anseo 112 - 99 Blazing Buck 112xx - 114 Blue Tango 99 - 104 Bocamix 124 - 124 Bothy 123 - 120 Causeway King 124 - 121? Ciceron 111 - 106 Coeur Brule 102 - 102 Coka 46 - 79 Corredor Son 111 - 110 Cornish Castle 98 - 92 Descaro 102x - 107 Diktalina 122 - 109? Dream Risk 102 - 98 Epee Celeste 112 - 106 Evening Sunset 120 - 119 First Bay 115 - 106 Garter Knight 90 - 115 George Nympton 123 - 123 Googoobarabajagal 106 - 105 Gwyre 105 - 104 Halling Park 98 - 91 Hector's House 115 - 113 Helieorbea 113 - 110 Heredias 90 - 97 Hunterview 122+ - 125 K'Gari 93 - 101 Kind Heart 112 - 112 King's Counsel 101 - 102 Kudu Country 124 - 124 Lady Of Ashcott 52 - 76 Lakeman 105x - 100 Lively Fling 113 - 107 Mallory 104 - 104 Marsool 118 - 109 Master Fong 114 - 119 Melange 119 - 109? Me Voici 120 - 136 Mille Chief 127+ - 136 Mohanad 122 - 117 Monsieur Jourdain 123 - 120 Ms Slocombe 94 - 92 Mymateeric 109 - 109 Navajo Nation 71 - 92 Nayessence 75 - 83 New Tricks 105 - 100 Nicky Nutjob 113 - 110 Notus De La Tour 125 - 134 Olofi 130 - 133 Orsippus 114 - 105? Peter Grimes 120 - 120 Pezula 40 - 77 Pistolet Noir 134 - 143 Pokfulham 109 - 110 Prince Pippin 121 - 128? Ravati 113 - 115 Regal Lyric 100 - 103 Riptide 122 - 122 Rougham 123 - 128 Royal Max 112 - 120 Royal Premium 74 - 85 Rupestrain 127 - 135 Salontrye 97 - 94 Screaming Brave 122 - 116 Seargeant Pink 119 - 122 Singarpore Reef 116+ - 115 Sir John 56 - 85 Space Telescope 107 - 102 Stormy Weather 124 - 122 Strong Storm 100 - 99 Supernoverre 96 - 110 Takelli 110 - 95 Tarawa Atoll 103 - 98 The Saucy Snipe 79 - 86 Toldedo Gold 104 - 107 Toujours Souriante 85 - 72 Transporter 91 - 99 Troubletimestwo 119 - 109 True Britannia 119 - 120 Trumpstoo 120 - 115 Veiled 120 - 115 Veronicas Boy 110 - 107 Warrior One 108 - 99 Westlin' Winds 132 - 136 Woodlark Island 85 - 92 Zarinski 116 - 111 Zepnove 115 - 113 Fairly big differences for Orsippus and Melange, given their big runs in the Scottish Triupmh Hurdle I think I may've been right with those two.