Your Professional Bets

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional Bets

Betfair Chase Kauto Star Evs, Notre Pere 4/1, Madison du Berlais 11/2, Imperial Commander 12/1, Halcon Genelardais 20/1, Nozic 100/1, Rambling Minster 200/1, Seymour Weld 400/1, The Sawyer 500/1

We are not that far apart Fin My prices 100% book is: Kauto Star 11/10, Notre Pere 5/2, Madison du Berlais 13/2, Imperial Commander 18/1, Halcon Genelardais 25/1, Rambling Minster 132/1, The Sawyer 400/1, Seymour Weld 2000/1 Do make Kauto Star and Madison slight value now, but don't like betting something with fitness worries as the main bet. And not enough margin for error either. Just wish I'd taken that 7/2 each way Notre Pere I said about, early on in the Betfair Chase Thread.:loon

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets 3.05 Lingfield My tissue for this listed sprint... Fullandby 11/2, Green Manalishi 7/1, Ceremonial Jade 15/2, Arganil 8/1, Jaconet 9/1, Prescription 10/1, Himalya 12/1, Son of the Cat 16/1, Rowe Park 18/1, Turn on the Style 20/1, Ebraam 28/1, Sir Gerry 40/1. Best prices currently available this morning... Fullandby 15/2 Green Manalishi 11/1 Arganil 11/2 Jaconet 6/1 Prescrption 10/1 Himalya 9/1 Cermonial Jade 7/1 Son of the Cat 12/1 Rowe Park 25/1 Turn on the Style 16/1 Ebraam 25/1 Sir Gerry 20/1 Sorry for the lack of notes to accompany but in a rush this morning. However, I do feel not enough emphasis has been given to the hold up horses. Green Manalishi (7/1on my tissue, 11/1 avail) and Fullandby (11/2 fav on my tissue, 15/2 avail) would be my bets today. If we are keeping totals for thread purposes, then Green Manalishi 1 pt EW is the thread bet (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets just realised ive priced up orpenindeed in place of ceremonial jade. Original post now altered

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional Bets Just to help anyone who wants to price up the Hennessy. Have not done a 100% book yet, prices shown were best bookmakers prices this morning. Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup 3m2f110yds Chase Newbury. Horses are in current betting order. In brackets are long handicap weights. 9 11-12 Denman 174 Brilliant winner of Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2008. Well handicapped on that run, despite now being off a 13lbs higher mark than when successful in this race two years ago. Needs to be better than last season when struggling with heart problems. Nicholls is making all the right noises about him this year, and apparently looked well in racecourse gallop at Exeter. Although stables horses generally need a run to bring them on this term. 5/1 fav. 6 10-4 What A Friend 152 Second string of Paul Nicholls and second favourite to Denman. But the price relates more to trainer's opinion than form shown on the racecourse. Winner of three small field novice chases last term but flopped in the RSA starting second favourite. Owned by Sir Alex Ferguson, holds his head high and sometimes looks awkward. 6/1 7 10-8 Barbers Shop 156 Well backed in recent days to give The Queen a Hennessy winner. Seemed an unlikely stayer but ran really well 7^th in Gold Cup at this trip. Not run yet in 2009/10 but excellent record fresh (2^nd in Paddy Power Gold Cup last term). Should run well here if conditions don't place too much emphasis on stamina. 8/1 7 10-6 Killyglen 154 Won Mildmay Novices Chase at Aintree on final start in 08/09. Before that effort, pulled up in RSA chase after interrupted preparation. Below form at Carlisle on reappearance, but over a vastly inadequate trip (2 ½ miles). Stable is in much better form now too. Only defeats so far over fences when not 100% fit? Second season chaser with potential to improve. Goes well on a soft surface. 9/1 7 10-0 Cappa Bleu 148 Won Foxhunter Chase at Cheltenham for trainer Sheila Crow. Has age and physical scope to make a better horse with professional handling this term. Now with Evan Williams who was successful in this race with State Of Play in 2007. Only 3^rd over inadequate 2m4f on return in October. Expected to do better at this distance. 10/1 6 10-1 Carruthers 149 Second season chaser with potential to improve. Won Reynoldstown chase at Ascot as a novice. Possibly set too fast a pace when 4^th to Cooldine in RSA chase. Much better than finishing position suggests and could be well handicapped. Part owned by Lord Oaksey. Usually a bold jumping front runner. Only 5^th on reappearance at Wincanton, but weakened late and probably needed the run. 14/1 8 10-0 Atouchbetweenacara 148 With Venetia Williams last term when improved to win Silver Trophy (2m5f) by 24 lengths at Cheltenham in April. Runs here off a 19 lbs higher mark . Now with Tim Vaughan, one of the most promising young trainers around. Stays 3m but will need to settle better for his new yard to stay 3m2f110yds. 16/1 (64/1 on betfair, so unlikely runner)? 9 10-3 Gone To Lunch 151 From the small but successful yard of J. Scott. Suited by extreme distances, insufficient test on reappearance. Laziness means he's usually under pressure early. Though that trait possibly makes the handicapper struggle to get his worth. Went close in Scottish National and now off just a 3lb higher mark. Possibly at his very best away from very soft ground and goes well for AP McCoy. 16/1 7 10-0 (9-8) Horner Woods 142 Second at 66/1 to Cooldine in RSA chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Very much suited by being dropped out in an overly strong run race. Run poorly since and remains to be seen if he was flattered by that run. Should be suited by this test of stamina. Is currently 6lbs out of the handicap 20/1 8 10-4 Casey Jones 152 Just behind War Of Attrition and My Will last time. Best in of those three at these weights and may be better suited by going left handed here. Has been inconsistent in the past. Possibly needs more throttle to trouble the principles. 20/1 (40/1 on betfair so doubtful starter)? 9 10-0 (9-12) Ballyfitz 146 Ran well enough in terms of form when well fancied in Paddy Power (2m5f, 4^th). Staying on which suggest has a chance at 3m2f110yds. Will have to improve his jumping though, best efforts so far over fences in small fields when able to dominate. Currently 2lbs out of the handicap. 25/1 9 10-2 Snowy Morning 150 Irish, dropped 6lbs by the handicapper since running 9^th in National. Thought by trainer to be never quite right last season. Now just 5lbs higher than when 3^rd in 08 renewal. Is not as good a jumper of park fences and fell when favourite for Denman's Hennessy. 25/1 8 10-0 (9-11) Nenuphar Collonges 145 Lazy but genuine staying chaser. 3^rd to Wichita Lineman in William Hill Handicap at Festival off a 3lbs lower mark. Suited by a strongly run race. Made mistakes on reappearance, only 6^th at Wincanton. Is 3lbs out of the handicap. 25/1 8 11-7 Madison Du Berlais 169 Last year won this race off a mark 19lbs lower but has improved since. Winning Totesport Bowl at Aintree when Denman fell. Ran below form in Betfair Chase this weekend, seems unlikely to take part. 33/1 (same price on Betfair). 6 10-0 (8-12) The Package 132 Has no chance of getting a run in this off 132. 33/1 (220/1 betfair). 8 10-0 (9-8) According To Pete 142 Ran really well to be 5^th in Paddy Power, outpaced turning for home. Stays and goes well on a soft surface. Is 6lbs out of the weights. 33/1 (over 140/1 on betfair, unlikely starter)? 9 10-9 My Will 157 Suited by 3m2f and more. Good performance to be 5^th in last years Cheltenham Gold Cup. Little below form 3^rd in Grand National and now races off a 5lb higher mark. Ran reasonably first time out, never with much chance of winning when 15 lengths 2^nd to The Listener in a 3m grade 1 chase in Ireland. Seems more exposed than most in this field. 33/1 10 10-3 Darkness 151 Enigmatic but talented chaser, sometimes fails to go through with his effort. Stays well but inclined to make the odd bad mistake. Possibly best in small fields. 33/1 (94/1 on betfair, unlikely starter?) 8 10-4 An Accordian 152 Looked to be capable of better when winning William Hill Handicap at Cheltenham Festival in 2008. Only seen once since, pulled up. Has looked a tricky ride and plays a silly tune when in front. 33/1 (over 100/1 on betfair, unlikely starter)? 8 10-0 (9-10) Siegemaster 144 Only 3^rd in Grade 2 chase when a well fancied 13/8 last time. Chance disappeared with a bad error 5 out. Won't be able to make errors in this competitive race. 33/1 (294/1 betfair, unlikely starter)? 9 10-0 (9-11) State Of Play 145 Winner of this in 2007 off this exact same mark. Though 3lbs out of the handicap here. Off a mark 5lbs higher when 4^th in the Grand National final start. This his first start since Aintree, but runs his best races fresh. Stable has better fancied Cappa Bleu. 33/1 (94/1, unlikely starter)? 7 10-0 (9-11) Kornati Kid 145 Found 4 miles too far in National Hunt Chase but should stay this trip. Progressive chaser up to that point and could do better in 09/10. Acts well on a soft surface. Currently 3lbs out of the handicap. 33/1 9 10-9 Roll Along 157 Only just behind My Will in Gold Cup but ran poorly on first start for Twiston-Davis yard on reappearance. Not always looked 100% genuine. 33/1 (94/1 betfair, unlikely starter)? 9 10-10 Cloudy Lane 158 Winner of Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock last season before fell and unseated rider last two starts (latter in Grand National). Better jumper than those results imply. May not come down from his northern base. 33/1 (over 300/1 betfair) 7 10-0 (9-8) Arbor Supreme 142 Progressive Irish chaser, not raced since may. Stays well and usually held up for a late run. 33/1 (284/1 betfair, unlikely starter)? 8 10-0 (9-11) Niche Market 145 Good jumper. Progressed all last season and ended up an English trained winner of the Irish Grand National. Usually races prominently. Probably needed race first time this season, could be trained specifically for Aintree this time around. 40/1 6 10-0 (9-11) Calgary Bay 145 Very well thought of last season, disappointed when second favourite for Arkle chase. Is a big brute of a horse, type to improve with age. Yet to prove himself further than 2m4f. Pulled up before stamina became an issue in May 40/1 (161/1 betfair, unlikely starter)? 9 10-13 Mon Mome 161 100/1 Grand National winner off a mark 13lbs lower than this. Speedier than Aintee suggests. Might have another primary target and need reappearance. 40/1 (over 200/1 on betfair, unlikely starter)? 10 11-0 Joe Lively 162 Genuine stayer last season, injured in February and only 5^th in Ireland on return. 40/1 (274/1 betfair unlikely starter)? 8 10-0 (9-11) New Alco 145 Last start on April 23^rd 2008. Now runs off same mark as when second to An Accordian in 08 William Hill Handicap. Now weighted to finish alongside if it was not for being 3lbs out of the handicap. May not stay this trip in testing conditions. 50/1 10 10-6 War Of Attrition 154 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner for the Irish in 2006, seems on the downgrade now but handicap mark is falling with ability. Ran reasonably when 3^rd to The Listener on soft. Very best form on firmer ground. 50/1 9 10-0 Chelsea Harbour 148 Irish chaser who was only 6^th at Cheltenham last time, does not jump well enough to win a race like this. Likes a test of stamina. 50/1 8 10-0 (9-8) Dream Alliance 142 Second to Denman in this in 2008 off exactly the same mark of 142. Though is now 6lbs out of the handicap if his old rival runs. Lightly raced, injured and poor jumper since. Encouraging reappearance from a lower hurdles mark, but asking a lot to reproduce his best here. 50/1 (over 130/1 on betfair). 8 10-2 Regal Heights 150 Pulled up on first start this season. 100/1 (379/1 betfair unlikely runner)? 8 10-4 The Tother One 152 Former top class but enigmatic novice hurdler. Lightly raced second season chaser. Given tender handling on encouraging first start for 11 months at Wincanton. Capable of better but stable say he's a doubtful runner. No price

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets ginge, he arbor supreme, mullins has him entered in a thurles hurdle on thursday, so that may be his preferred engagement looking at the betfair odds you mention? The entry isnt listed on the rp but is on the irish racing database.

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets

3.05 Lingfield My tissue for this listed sprint... Fullandby 11/2, Green Manalishi 7/1, Ceremonial Jade 15/2, Arganil 8/1, Jaconet 9/1, Prescription 10/1, Himalya 12/1, Son of the Cat 16/1, Rowe Park 18/1, Turn on the Style 20/1, Ebraam 28/1, Sir Gerry 40/1. ....... Sorry for the lack of notes to accompany but in a rush this morning. However, I do feel not enough emphasis has been given to the hold up horses. Green Manalishi (7/1on my tissue, 11/1 avail) and Fullandby (11/2 fav on my tissue, 15/2 avail) would be my bets today. If we are keeping totals for thread purposes, then Green Manalishi 1 pt EW is the thread bet (3 places, 1/5 odds).

To try explain why this race went so horribly wrong.... It was a race that, on paper, looked as if it could be run at a good pace, with several front runners amongst the field, hence my thoughts on Fullandby being the most likely winner of the race as he is a hold up horse that capitalises on a strongly run race. Green Manalishi is tactically versatile but can be ridden well from mid-division and from a wide draw and with Spencer booked I thought he may have been given one of his mid-div days. As it turned out Spencer had him up with the pace. I actually think that was a wise move from the jockey, the winner broke well and made all unchallenged throughout - something that did not seem that likely considering horses like Arganil were in the field and could have, on another day, disputed the lead. Green Manalishi came into the race in good form but seems to have gone over the top on that showing. He is capable of winning in listed grade, so it wasn't so much the strength of the opposition that found him out, he simply didn't look on top of his game. In contrast, the winner has just kept on improving, and is a great credit to her trainer, who has already shown with Sirvino he can just keep improving horses beyond all recognition. So looking back with the benefit of hindsight, my tissue prices were quite a way out, but that was because they were formed on the assumption the winner would be taken on for the lead, which ultimately didn't happen. The one to take from the race in my opinion was Himalya.

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets 2.15 Ludlow See Me Soon - fair debut when fifth in novices hurdle last December but slipped at Newbury thereafter and well beaten in novices hurdle at Southwell recently. This his first start over fences, lots to prove. Cannon Fire - strike rate is 5-31 over hurdles but a seventeen race maiden over fences, including several runs over this sort of trip. 7 lb claimer put up to try bring down handicap mark to more realistic and price looks plenty short enough. Sydney Sling - the second of Evan Williams' runners, lightly raced chaser that is 1-4 in this sphere. Was beaten a head off 105 over hurdles, win over Foxesbow over fences came off 104 and up to 109 here. Has won on soft ground, but has to prove stays three miles. Wizard's Dust - 6 lbs higher than when winning at Wetherby last month and although he flopped at the same track, latest, the trainer puts up a claimer today to ease the weight burden. He has also won off 1 lb higher previously. He has won on sharp tracks in the past, as well as going right-handed, the sticking point could be the ground. He has never won on soft but has placed on good-soft, but the price factors in that uncertainty. Pagan Sword - 3 lb lower than when beaten by half a length at Plumpton over shorter and shaped as if wanted further, so even though is yet to win beyond 2m, seems as though worth a crack at this trip. weakened on heavy ground last time out but all of his wins had come on quicker. Could feasibly bounce back and seems one of the most likely winners. My tissue: Sydney Sling 6/4, Pagan Sword 7/2, Wizard's Dust 9/2, Cannon Fire 11/2, See Me Soon 22/1 best prices currently available: Sydney Sling 13/8 (1.9 % discrepency) Pagan Sword 4/1 (2.2 % discrepency) Wizard's Dust 11/2 (2.8 % discrepency) Cannon Fire 3/1 - poor value See Me Soon 14/1 - poor value So a pretty tight race if the tissue is anything near appropriate, but Wizard's Dust is my bet at 11/2 with Paddypower - the form of the yard just swaying my decision.

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets

2.15 Ludlow My tissue: Sydney Sling 6/4, Pagan Sword 7/2, Wizard's Dust 9/2, Cannon Fire 11/2, See Me Soon 22/1 best prices currently available: Sydney Sling 13/8 (1.9 % discrepency) Pagan Sword 4/1 (2.2 % discrepency) Wizard's Dust 11/2 (2.8 % discrepency) Cannon Fire 3/1 - poor value See Me Soon 14/1 - poor value So a pretty tight race if the tissue is anything near appropriate, but Wizard's Dust is my bet at 11/2 with Paddypower - the form of the yard just swaying my decision.

Wizards Dust was backed off the boards into 3/1, and won by a length. The fav drifted out to 2/1, Cannon Fire was nibbled into 5/2 and would have made an ideal lay, whilst Pagan Sword was a huge drifter, out to 11/2.

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets 3.20 Sedgefield Ya I Know - had been subject to plenty of support in recent runs but always failed to complete, so no surprise that when he did finally complete, last time out, he was a winner on his second start for Susan Humphrey. Although 7 lb penalty puts him up to a mark of 99 he had placed several times off 96 at the start of the year and his mark should prohibit further improvement if in the right mood as he is lightly raced in this sphere. Soft ground poses no problems, is proven over futher and ticks plenty of boxes. Bafana Boy - CD winner off 1 lb lower three years ago. May prefer quicker ground to be at his best though and recent form uninspiring - has pulled up on both of last two chase starts. Finbin - unexposed chaser that was second over CD off 1 lb higher in June. Only had three runs over fences under rules, over hurdles had won off marks up to 82. 1-5 in Irish points, and open to more improvement. May have needed run when well held at Carlisle last time out, has placed on soft and fair claims. Patchoulie Conti - lightly raced type that makes handicap debut after finishing well back over shorter on chase debut here last time out. Was a good second off 83 over hurdles, 5 lb higher in this sphere but yard do well with their chasers and no surprise to see him go well now handicapping/if handling ground. Matmata de Tendron - expereinced chaser that is 13 lbs lower than win here over CD in Jan '08. Won here over further over hurdles too, so clearly handles track. Looked in need of a break with poor placings during the first third of the year, but bounced back to form on reappearance at Carlisle on soft ground latest, and providing doesn't bounce, should go well. Lethem Present - 12 lbs higher than last win and although an experience chaser, not had many runs over this far so could possibly eke out a bit of improvement. Will be gradually building fitness up now after two runs returned from a long absence, but others look more likely winners. El Tuco - makes his chase debut under rules, sole win to date came in Irish point, but 0-9 over hurdles. Win came on yielding ground over 3 miles, was well beaten at this track in a selling hurdle recently and even though moves into this sphere, too many questions to answer for now. Shulmin - only 2 lb higher than CD win on soft ground here last year but has failed to follow up since. Mark is steadily dropping but never looked like winning at Hexham last time out, even if the trip was always gonna be on the sharp side. Lacks the potential for improvement of some but all four career wins came here, three of which were over CD, so respect on that alone. Opus Cafe - returns from massive break, lacks experience after only 7 career runs, and hard to know what to expect as a result as pulled up when last seen and held in handicaps previously. Lusento - mark is dropping as 0-4 over fences now and hadn't won over hurdles either. Has been held in handicaps, is relying on a huge step up in trip prompting improvement, but far from certain. Ellandshe - 0-10 over fences, beaten by a distance at Newcastle last time out, plenty to prove in handicaps and opposed. 1 lb out of the handicap. Liz's Dream - could possibly improve now handicapping, but sole start over fences didn't show a great deal and would have to backed with a great leap of faith. Fair fifth in handicap hurdle last time out sharpened up his fitness though and 5 lb lower from this on official ratings, although is 2 lb out of the handicap. My tissue: Ya I Know 7/2, Matmata de Tendron 5/1, Finbin 7/1, Shulmin 17/2, Patchoulie Conti 12/1, Bafana Boy 16/1, Lethem Present 16/1, El Tuco 20/1, Liz's Dream 22/1, Lusento 25/1, Opus Cafe 33/1, Ellandshe 40/1 Bet 365's book tonight Ya I Know 3/1 Matmata 4/1 Finbin 13/2 Shulmin 7/1 Patchoulie Conti 15/2 Bafana Boy 14/1 Lethem Present 10/1 El Tuco 10/1 Liz's Dream 12/1 Lusento 25/1 Opus Cafe 16/1 Ellandshe 33/1 Will wait until a few more firms have priced up the race but leaning towards Finbin at the minute.

[JackJarvis]

Re: Your Professional Bets Fin/Ginge, I like the idea of drawing up your own tissue prices and comparing with bookmakers, hence looking for the value. I am currently reading Dave Nevisons book (A Bloody Good Winner) and this is how he approaches betting saying it is the only way to win at horseracing. I only bet seriously on football now and I will now only bet if I think a team represents good value. Obviously it is more difficult with horse racing as there are more runners and such. Anyway, I notice Fin & Ginge seem to be on this thread alot and I would like to ask if you now take Nevisons approach in drawing up your own tissue in each race that interests you before betting? I would like to have a go at this myself, obviously for fun starting out and then see if I am any good at it. Any advice would be appreciated aswell. Thanks. :)

[billy the punter]

Re: Your Professional Bets Good work Fin :clap

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets Cheers Billy :ok Jack, Ginge is the most experienced in this area, I am still learning how to do it myself at the minute to be honest, but I have also read Nevison's book and I liked the idea, so yes it has influenced the way I look at races. If you have any questions, fire away, I will do my best to help. I do not draw up a tissue for every race I bet in, simply because I don't have time to do so, but I am trying more and more to practice drawing up tissues. I enjoy fiddling with numbers and think it caps off 30 -60 mins or study or whatever nicely. Odds compiling is an area I would possibly be interested into going into, so I am using this thread to get practice. I hope Ginge doesn't mind, afterall he did start the the thread. We know from earlier in the thread the punters that don't agree with this approach but all I would say is that it is each to their own. Some people like to use trends, others like to use speed figures, others compile their own ratings etc, but it is possible to make a profit from a whole host of ways and there is no right or wrong way. The problem people see with the drawing up your own tissue approach is that the whole thing falls apart if your prices are wrong, and they are 100 % correct. In order for the method to work, you need to be able to price up horses accurately and not be heavily swayed by other influences IMO. If you are able to asses horses chances accurately and form strong opinions then you will make a profit, if you aren't then you won't! For me right now, I find some of my prices differ greatly from those reflected in the actual market, but I put that down to inexpereince and the only way I'm gonna improve is to keep practicing. Maybe my opinions have been too strong at times (the Lingfield sprint on Sat a glaring example IMO). That said, since moving away from 'finding the winner' to obtaining the best value, I have seen a marked improvement in my profit and it is a style that suits me, so I think those opinions have been more right than they have been wrong, I don't want that to come across cockily though.:unsure The first step is to go through the form of all runners and make notes. Once you have the notes, make a list of who is the most likely winner of the race, right down to the runner with the least chances of winning. Then start at the favourite and work out his price. If you think he has as much chance of winning as the rest of the field combined, allocate him a percentage of 50 % etc, and from there work through your list and allocate the percentages. Add all of the percentages up and if they exceed 100 %, cut them down until they are 100 %, or if they have to be either side of 100 %, cut them down below 100 %, allowing for a bit of error in your calculations. If you are happy with the percentages you have given each horse, then convert into fractional odds and you have your tissue. What I would like to ask Ginge, or indeed any other punters that draw up tissues but haven't contributed to the thread yet, is what checks do you do to your prices to try ensure they are as accurate as possible? At the minute I have two - are these followed by others? Firstly, I look at the prices I have given and think, is that normal for that type of horse, given the strength of the opposition. For example, if you have a progressive handicapper that is 2-2 since handicapping and he is running against a field of exposed and out of form rivals then he is never gonna be 5/1, for example. Secondly, I take a random runner from tissue and compare its percentage against that of the others. E.g. if I have horse A as a 25 % chance and horse B and horse C as 10 % chances each, then I have to weigh up whether I would actually back horse A over the other two combined, and if I didn't, then I would adjust the percentages of horse A. Does that make sense? What other checks are they?

[chris34]

Re: Your Professional Bets Hi fin/ginge I have said before this is something I wanna play with over the quiet months, like you it unlikely to suit my time restrains nor is it likely to suite my sort of betting at times but anything to further my knowledge. The way I bet now i have a price in my head that I would be happy backing at but no sound proof as to why i come to that price. Do you find it easier to price up say a 6/8 runner field than a 16 runner field? And do you find handicaps easier? (obviously you renowned for being a bit of a handicap whizz anyway)

[chris34]

Re: Your Professional Bets Oh and btw having being reading the thread throughout and you 2 are clearly great at what you do keep it up ;)!!

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional Bets Fin, You have made giant strides in making 100% books. It was ages before I had grasped it as well as that. Jack, Will reply with a longer message tomorrow, but if you want to know the type of thing I take in to account, then have a look at a thread called "How To Produce A 100% Book". :ok It's good to here some members giving true value a try. Good luck to all of you.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional Bets Have now brought the thread mentioned above to the fore once more.

[billy the punter]

Re: Your Professional Bets Don't forget guys, EVERY bet you have should be "professional" bet - as described in this thread, if that makes sense. How far you take the concept and how you use the whole process is what's always created discussion - too much at times! :lol

[chris34]

Re: Your Professional Bets

Don't forget guys, EVERY bet you have should be "professional" bet - as described in this thread, if that makes sense. How far you take the concept and how you use the whole process is what's always created discussion - too much at times! :lol

Couldnt agree more Billy this thread is perhaps wrongly named because like you say every bet you make should be professional this is just another way to attack your professional punting!

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets chris, to answer your questions, i definately find handicaps easier to price up as they are what i study most, especially flat/aw ones- i reckon this will be the same for you too when you have a go? Re field size, 16 runner jobs are harder to price up imo, there is more studying required and more tweaking to get the percentages down to 100 %

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional Bets Without wishing to start it all up again. As I said earlier, the reason I called it "your professional bets", was: Had I called it "Your Value Bets" it might get bets of 5/1 plus, without those at odds-on who may also be true value. And did not want it called "True Value" because thought that would encourage a debate about; "there is no such thing as true odds in horse racing". Seems the debate got out of hand anyway. ;) I thought most pro gamblers work (at least partly) in this way anyway, hence the name. Those who do not work out a 100% book should not be discouraged in posting. I do not work out a book for every race I bet in. You can sometimes look at every horse in a race and believe one in paticular is vastly over-priced. Whether that is the odds-on fav, rank outsider or anything in between.

[BillyHills]

Re: Your Professional Bets Still a mass debate then?

[markmywords]

Re: Your Professional Bets I have always been a gambler rather than a punter but since being on this website I am hopefully becoming a punter. Oct I finished £500 profit and Nov currently £700 profit could of been higher if not gambling whilst drunk. Anyway since October I have been looking alot into speed ratings and then trying to find the value from that. Going through every race and giving a percentage win seems to thorough for me I like the idea of eliminating so many and then trying to find value. I have bought no books so am very fresh on punting but my current figures are making me realise I am not for away. I now do nothing but talk about horseracing and want to learn more. Keep up all interesting debates on this site it helps alot of people on their way. Great debates lads:clap

[markmywords]

Re: Your Professional Bets With my view in mind I seriously think Magic Sky is undervalued 6-1 its dropped from 132+ and is running at 115 2nd at 132 at Cheltenham. Its problem is it hasn't run for 551 days but I would say it has place chances I think 9 - 2 is value. 15:10 Lingfield

[markmywords]

Re: Your Professional Bets Can't Get 6-1 Betfair are advertising does that make me void. They advertise 6.4 but go to place bet and its SP

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets

3.20 Sedgefield Ya I Know - had been subject to plenty of support in recent runs but always failed to complete, so no surprise that when he did finally complete, last time out, he was a winner on his second start for Susan Humphrey. Although 7 lb penalty puts him up to a mark of 99 he had placed several times off 96 at the start of the year and his mark should prohibit further improvement if in the right mood as he is lightly raced in this sphere. Soft ground poses no problems, is proven over futher and ticks plenty of boxes. Bafana Boy - CD winner off 1 lb lower three years ago. May prefer quicker ground to be at his best though and recent form uninspiring - has pulled up on both of last two chase starts. Finbin - unexposed chaser that was second over CD off 1 lb higher in June. Only had three runs over fences under rules, over hurdles had won off marks up to 82. 1-5 in Irish points, and open to more improvement. May have needed run when well held at Carlisle last time out, has placed on soft and fair claims. Patchoulie Conti - lightly raced type that makes handicap debut after finishing well back over shorter on chase debut here last time out. Was a good second off 83 over hurdles, 5 lb higher in this sphere but yard do well with their chasers and no surprise to see him go well now handicapping/if handling ground. Matmata de Tendron - expereinced chaser that is 13 lbs lower than win here over CD in Jan '08. Won here over further over hurdles too, so clearly handles track. Looked in need of a break with poor placings during the first third of the year, but bounced back to form on reappearance at Carlisle on soft ground latest, and providing doesn't bounce, should go well. Lethem Present - 12 lbs higher than last win and although an experience chaser, not had many runs over this far so could possibly eke out a bit of improvement. Will be gradually building fitness up now after two runs returned from a long absence, but others look more likely winners. El Tuco - makes his chase debut under rules, sole win to date came in Irish point, but 0-9 over hurdles. Win came on yielding ground over 3 miles, was well beaten at this track in a selling hurdle recently and even though moves into this sphere, too many questions to answer for now. Shulmin - only 2 lb higher than CD win on soft ground here last year but has failed to follow up since. Mark is steadily dropping but never looked like winning at Hexham last time out, even if the trip was always gonna be on the sharp side. Lacks the potential for improvement of some but all four career wins came here, three of which were over CD, so respect on that alone. Opus Cafe - returns from massive break, lacks experience after only 7 career runs, and hard to know what to expect as a result as pulled up when last seen and held in handicaps previously. Lusento - mark is dropping as 0-4 over fences now and hadn't won over hurdles either. Has been held in handicaps, is relying on a huge step up in trip prompting improvement, but far from certain. Ellandshe - 0-10 over fences, beaten by a distance at Newcastle last time out, plenty to prove in handicaps and opposed. 1 lb out of the handicap. Liz's Dream - could possibly improve now handicapping, but sole start over fences didn't show a great deal and would have to backed with a great leap of faith. Fair fifth in handicap hurdle last time out sharpened up his fitness though and 5 lb lower from this on official ratings, although is 2 lb out of the handicap. My tissue: Ya I Know 7/2, Matmata de Tendron 5/1, Finbin 7/1, Shulmin 17/2, Patchoulie Conti 12/1, Bafana Boy 16/1, Lethem Present 16/1, El Tuco 20/1, Liz's Dream 22/1, Lusento 25/1, Opus Cafe 33/1, Ellandshe 40/1 Bet 365's book tonight Ya I Know 3/1 Matmata 4/1 Finbin 13/2 Shulmin 7/1 Patchoulie Conti 15/2 Bafana Boy 14/1 Lethem Present 10/1 El Tuco 10/1 Liz's Dream 12/1 Lusento 25/1 Opus Cafe 16/1 Ellandshe 33/1 Will wait until a few more firms have priced up the race but leaning towards Finbin at the minute.

Best prices now available Ya I Know 11/2 Matmata de Tendron 7/2 Finbin 17/2 Shulmin 15/2 Patchoulie Conti 9/1 Bafana Boy 20/1 Lethem Present 18/1 El Tuco 20/1 Liz's Dream 6/1 Lusento 40/1 Opus Cafe 22/1 Ellandshe 33/1 With that in mind, Finbin has now become a bet as hoped (17/2 SJ, 0.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). I'm ignoring the market move for Liz's Dream and am backing the drifter, Ya I Know, as a saver 11/2 Sporting Bet, 0.2 pt.

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets 2.00 Southwell Shakespeare's Son - CD winner off 3 lb higher in Sep 08. Disappointed here in last run in August though and although good second at Wolverhampton recently, is very hit and miss. Wide draw today. Goldie Dixie - well drawn today but out of form. 1 lb lower than turf win at Chep in June this year but ten year old without room for improvement and ability to handle surface taken on trust. Silk Gallery - placed on fibrsand of 4 lbs lower when second to Efisio Princess at start of season. Recently broke maiden tag at Catterick when winning on slow ground off 4 lb lower. Flopped last time out but 3 lb ease in mark today may help. Could have been better drawn but possibility of more improvement. Monte Cassino - placed here off 3 lb higher in past but yet to win a race after 21 runs. Was out of his depth in class 4 Pontefract handicap, latest, but would have to be backed with a big leap of faith today. Embra - placed off this mark at Kempton earlier in month and open to more improvement. Races off competitive mark, but unproven on surface. Martin Lane claims useful 3 lbs to aid cause. Thunder Bay - Fahey runner that was placed behind the usefull Ebraam in a Wolverhampton claimer recently. Is 1 lb higher than when placed in turf handicap in Sep, may possibly be better on quicker surface though. Dickie Le Davoir - course winner over further and handicapped to go well, but drop back in trip not certain to suit and hold up style can present problems on this surface. Cape Cobra - former John Gosden now with Hugh Morrison. Open to more improvement and handicapped to go close, but not yet shown the speed to act over 5f and unproven on fibresand. Glencairn Star - CD winner five years ago, would be well handicapped on best of old form - won off 16 lb higher previously, but now on downgrade. Count Cougar- has 299 day break to overcome, 17 lb lower than 2007 win over CD but was severely out of form when last seen and at 9 no room for major improvement. Kingi - goes well on sand but done most of winning in plating races. Is handicapped to go close judging on Wolverhampton third, latest, but drop in trip not sure to suit. First Swallow - only 1 lb higher than Ayr second in October but untried on this track. Turf form, when winning maiden and when subsequently placed in handicap, suggests may handle slow surface though. One of most likely winners. Ursus - won turf handicap off this mark last year (also on slow ground). Was a good second at newcastle recently and handicapped to have a chance, but well behind Silk Gallery at Catterick, latest. Sherjawy - CD winner in claimer prevously, but is handicapped to go well as 1 lb lower than Goodwood win in June. Racing style uncertain, but percentage call to look elsewhere given recent form flops. My tissue : Silk Gallery 7/1, First Swallow 9/1, Kinigi 9/1, Dickie Le Davoir 10/1, Ursus 11/1 Thunder Bay 11/1, Embra 12/1, Cape Cobra 14/1, Monte Cassino 14/1 Shakespeare's Son 16/1 Sherjawy 18/1, Golden Dixie 20/1, Glencairn Star 40/1, Count Cougar 50/1 Selected bet: Silk Gallery 14/1 Bet 365, 0.75 pt win/0.25 pt place (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional Bets

Still a mass debate then?

No BH, we've past that stage. ;) Have written up my form study of the Hennessy, what I think of each horse. Some stuff that I usually make short hand notes of and included other obvious things. The only thing I will not be showing is Timeform ratings (might put them on it after the race). There is a more up to date version on Key Threads. Will put on that post how I work out the prices, with each stage of the process. As it happens. What chance in order (from best to worst), I believe each horse has. Percentage chance, each stage until getting it to 100%. Adding a "bookies mark up" to my odds. To try and double check my 100% book. (Will probably do all this once I get back from Newbury on friday). I know you wanted it before the betting is known BH, but might do that some other time. :ok

[chris34]

Re: Your Professional Bets Cheers for your answer fin ;) may have a go at an aw handicap tonight as there is a couple priced up already by bet365 so can compare when finished will see what time i get left when sorted out tomorrows racing ;)

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional Bets

Fin/Ginge, I like the idea of drawing up your own tissue prices and comparing with bookmakers, hence looking for the value. I am currently reading Dave Nevisons book (A Bloody Good Winner) and this is how he approaches betting saying it is the only way to win at horseracing. I only bet seriously on football now and I will now only bet if I think a team represents good value. Obviously it is more difficult with horse racing as there are more runners and such. Anyway, I notice Fin & Ginge seem to be on this thread alot and I would like to ask if you now take Nevisons approach in drawing up your own tissue in each race that interests you before betting? I would like to have a go at this myself, obviously for fun starting out and then see if I am any good at it. Any advice would be appreciated aswell. Thanks. :)

Jack, If you know more about football then why not stick to football? Working out the percentage chance of a home win, draw or away win. I have been making my own tissues for some time now (found Kleenex too rough), long time before I heard of Dave Nevison. Been a little disappointed in his "Bloody Good Winner", gave very little away. Not bothered getting his new one. Was first told about "the table" by another pro, Alan Potts in a chance meeting at Wincanton Races. Believe Nevison learnt a lot of his tissue skills from Eddie ("the shoe") Freemantle. Don't work out every race that I have a bet in. Like to do 100% books for handicaps and condition races. Ordinary novices and maidens I tend to judge on the TRW figures. Timeform give the rating for winners of the last five renewals (and average winner of said five) of any non-handicap. It is usually possible to assess whether the race is above or below the average standard for the corresponding race. So being able to judge the value of each horse against the average winner, without the need of a "100% book". Some knowledge of breeding and trainers first and second time out strike rates is also a help. Like to bet in maidens at the course, seeing green and edgy two year olds, scopey types etc. If seeing a horse sweating up, edgy, good or poor coat, etc. will change the price I am willing to take. Tend to bet in just three or four races on a card / day. Hope that helps Jack.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional Bets Fintron asked about ways to check whether you have the right assessment? One way I do this is to add a mark up to each price, as if I were a bookie. e.g. If I thought a horse has a fair 4/1 (20%) chance. If it was exposed I add 2% to make it 22% 7/2 (if unexposed I'd add 3% making it 100/30). Then ask myself would I be prepared to lay the horse at 7/2 (or 100/30 if applicable) if I were a bookie. If not then 4/1 is probably wrong. The same is obviously true if I'd still want to back it at 7/2. The amount bookmakers mark up their prices relates to how big the price is. May be less than 1% mark up for a 50/1 (fair 2%). Where as a 4/6 60% may have 4% added. The other way is to do as you imply yourself. Looking at one horse v two, three or more horses. If you make one horse a 25% 3/1 shot and two 12.5% 7/1 shots in your book. Do you really think the 3/1 shot has the same chance as the two combined? If not then you might want to drop it to 24% or 23% 100/30. Alternatively add to the two 7/1 shots. If the answer is it stands a better chance than the two 7/1's you may want to either add to the 3/1 or drop the two 7/1's. You can do this with each runner. Also, ask whether you'd prefer two of horse C running for you instead of one horse B? etc.