Your Professional Bets

[JackJarvis]

Re: Your Professional Bets Thanks Ginge, appreciate all of your input, :ok Yeah I will always stick to football as my number 1 income from betting but I just thought it would be nice to price up races and give myself a different angle to view them when it comes to studying the big meetings.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Your Professional Bets Tried to do a tissue for the 12:30 Lingfield tomorrow, lets see how it works out: Agnes Love - Has 11 all weather runs to her name, notching up 2 wins and 5 places. Is just 1lb higher than her career best mark of 56 today since claimer Atzeni takes 3lbs off. Has yet to win over the distance but was 3rd over course and distance on her first try at the trip off a mark of 61 (3lb claimer on board though). Has not shown much signs that the distance will suit but it is in her pedigree. Cheap Thrills - 1/1 over course and distance when she won a maiden here at the start of the year. Has won once since off a mark of 71 on turf at Newmarket. Form has dipped since but did place at Kempton over the distance LTO off a mark of 71, dropped 1lb today to a mark of 70 so can win off this mark in my opinion. Dakota Hills - Lightly raced, placed 3 times from 4 runs on the All Weather in cluding a 2nd over course and distance in Decemberlast year. Runs off his lowest mark since hes gone handicapping. Hard to tell what he will do today but one I am willing to avoid. Doctor Hilary - Oldest horse in the race and his best form is definately in the past. Hasn't won since 2006 and that was at Nad Al Sheba. First run in over a year and has not won when reappeearing in the past. Mambo Spirit - Has not won in over 2 years but handicap mark has been plummeting and could potentially be well handicapped. Has placed on the All Weather before off a mark of 84 and won off 82 on turf, runs off a mark of 69 today. First run for new stable today as well. Was second at this course over 5 furlongs last Autumn when running on well off a mark of 78 so a repeat of that performance today and she may go close. Miss Hollybell - Has shown nothing on the All Weather so far in her 2 runs where she was beaten by 16 lengths and 36 lengths. Has won once and placed 3 times on turf but that doesn't take away the fact how poor she has been on her 2 runs on this surface. Partner - Unexposed on the All Weather with only 1 run to date on the surface which came LTO when he was 3rd over today's trip at Dundalk. Is raised 2lbs for that and wth no claimer on board today is technically 5lbs higher than that run. Has the one win on turf off a mark of 51 which came over 5 furlongs at Cork. Due to taking to this surface well LTO I think he could run a good race but others preferred for me. Suhayl Star - 1/2 over course and distance and a record of 3 wins and 9 places from 24 runs on the All Weather. Her 2nd here back in May can be looked into further as she was beaten by Lemon N Sugar by 2 1/2 lengths that day but that form has been franked since Lemon N Sugar has since went on to win a class 3 handicap over course and distance off a mark of 82 and also a class 3 handicap back on turf at Goodwood off a mark of 75 since. Has been off since June but should give a good account here and one of the leading players in my opinion. Titus Gent - Twice a distance winner, once on the AW at Wolverhampton. Recent 2nd over course and distance off a mark of 67, did run on well but never had a chance with the winner. Has claims. Todber - Off a career high mark today having been raised 5lbs for her win at Kempton over the distance back in October. Won fairly well that day with a 5lbs claimer on board so the rise in the weights of 10lb may be too much for her. Was below par LTO at Wolverhampton but could bounce back today. Yankee Storm - 3 wins and 8 places in 22 runs on the all weather. Last won over 5 furlongs at Great Leighs in May last year off a mark of 70. Is only 2lbs lower than that today but has placed off marks of 74 and 68 within the past year. Fallon on board today is a positive. Also has claims. Could go into more detail on most of the runners but felt I would keep it short and sweet and highlight the main points. Anyway here is my tissue: Suhayl Star 5/1, Yankee Storm 13/2, Cheap Thrills 7/1, Mambo Spirit 8/1, Partner 8/1, Todber 9/1, Titus Gent 10/1, Agnes Love 14/1, Dakota Hills 25/1, Doctor Hilary 33/1, Miss Hollybell 50/1. Hope I have done this right. Had a quick look at the Betfair market and seem pretty close with the majority but a fair bit out on a couple, we will see how the market forms tomorrow but going on Betfair prices right now my picks will probably be Suhayl Star, Cheap Thrills and Yankee Storm. Would ideally want to cut that down to two selections but as I said I will wait for the morning markets before deciding anything.

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets Great write up Simmy, hope your effort is rewarded.....

[StuSimmy]

Re: Your Professional Bets Cheers mate, here is the best prices available right now and I am very shocked at how short the favourite is, maybe somebody is in the know? Mambo Spirit 5/2 (is as short as 13/8) Yankee Storm 5/1 Todber 13/2 Titus Gent 7/1 Partner 9/1 Suhayl Star 14/1 Cheap Thrills 14/1 Agnes Love 25/1 Dakota Hills 40/1 Miss Hollybell 50/1 Doctor Hilary 100/1 Seem to have got the last 4 in order correct. The three in bold apart from Doctor Hilary are the ones that are higher prices than I have them down as, Partner is as well but is only 1 point higher. Going to have a play on two in the race: 1 pt E/W Suhayl Star @ 14/1 (WillHill - BOG) 0.5pts E/W Cheap Thrills @ 14/1 (VC - BOG0

[Spooner]

Re: Your Professional Bets I'm gonna have a pop at this when I got some time, looks interesting. :ok

[StuSimmy]

Re: Your Professional Bets Obviously the more you do the less time it will probably take, think it took me around an hour to get a % for each horse and then to convert that into prices. I then took about another 45 minutes to write it all up on here. Really hope it pays off :lol

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional Bets Good luck with your work Simmy.:ok

[StuSimmy]

Re: Your Professional Bets Well it didn't :sad Should have backed Partner at 9/1 :wall

[StuSimmy]

Re: Your Professional Bets

Good luck with your work Simmy.:ok

Cheers mate, thought I had the market pretty close for a first attempt apart from the 2 I backed who were around 5th or 6th. Partner was backed into 4/1 from 9/1!

[Spooner]

Re: Your Professional Bets A few positives to take out of that Stu, Mambo Spirit was unplaced.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Your Professional Bets

A few positives to take out of that Stu' date=' Mambo Spirit was unplaced.[/quote'] True and the bottom 4 I had were all unplaced as well :ok I also stated Partner could run a good race and said the 2nd and 3rd horses had claims but obviously in accordance to my prices only the winner was a value bet until it started to get backed in (which i didn't notice until nearer the off anyway).

[Tipster5000]

Re: Your Professional Bets May aswell contribute to this thread. Wetherby 12.50 Just For Men Should not be put off by his weight, Ran a cracker when running off 11-10 at Hexham last year over these conditions and has also tasted success in November 2007, Has Denis O'Regan on board who has been riding well for Mr Todhunter of late, Does have a 228 day lay off to cope with but his form after lay offs read 212P 4.1 (Win Market) & 2.06 (Place Market)

[Tipster5000]

Re: Your Professional Bets Chepstow 1.40 Devito Looks the one who could be relyed on with his experience, Seems to prefer Class 5 company and is sitting off a dangerous mark with Mr Wallis taking a handy 7lbs off and could easily make the frame. E/W @ 9/1

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets Simmy, don't worry that you didn't pick the winner today. The whole rationale behind this sort of betting is that if a punter is able to consistently back horses at odds available that exceed their true value, that they will make long term profit. What will determined whether long term profits are obtained is the accuracy of the tissue prices.

[Tipster5000]

Re: Your Professional Bets Wetherby 3.00 Minella Boys Should relish the distance in this race and conditions, In a race where the form over the chase fences is minimal, so if he can revert his hurdle form to the big fences he will take all the beating. @ 7/4

[StuSimmy]

Re: Your Professional Bets

Simmy' date=' don't worry that you didn't pick the winner today. The whole rationale behind this sort of betting is that if a punter is able to consistently back horses at odds available that exceed their true value, that they will make [i']long term profit. What will determined whether long term profits are obtained is the accuracy of the tissue prices.

Cheers fintron, might have a crack at doing another race tomorrow to see how I get on. Trying not to have too many bets in the next week or so until payday so maybe concentrating on one/two races a day will be better for me. Will post up one later if I get round to doing it.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Your Professional Bets I don't tend to do well at Kempton but feel I have better knowledge on flat/all weather racing than the jumps so gone for the 19:00 Kempton. Mildoura - Will need a career best to win off this mark of 79 today despite placing off a mark of 78 on the turf. That was over a shorter distance and since the horse has yet to show any form on the All Weather then I am willing to ignore. Has won over the distance on turf off a mark of 74 though. Cupids Glory - Oldest horse in the race and has plenty of experience by winning a total of 6 races in his career, one of those wins was in a group 3 contest back in 2004. Has not won since May 2008 and has never won over today's trip. Ran over course and distance off a mark of 84 last November and ran a poor race. Runs off 79 today and despite winning off 108 on turf and 97 on the all weather in the past I feel his best form is well and truely behind him. Is 13lbs higher than last win. Hallingdal - This horse is untried over the trip so it will be interesting to see she runs. Has 2 wins on the All Weather and 3 places from 16 runs and has also won once and placed twice here at Kempton. Is 1lb lower than her highest winning mark due to having a 3lb claimer on board today. This means she runs off 72 and with place form off marks of 78 and 73 on the all weather she is well handicapped. Could be one to watch. Saloon - Has 1 win from 2 attempts over course and distance. Runs really well at the distance but looks a bit lazy at times and maybe lacks that winning mentality since she has 5 places from 10 runs over the distance. 2 wins from that other 5 runs proves she does stay the trip so she should have a chance today, place claims anyway since she seems to lack that winning mentality. Does seem better suited to turf as well despite winning over course and distance (that was off a mark 20lbs lower than todays mark). Green Wadi - Lightly raced horse, especially on the AW where he has only had the one run in a maiden race over 6 furlongs. Is 1/1 over the trip when winning a maiden off a mark of 72 in June last year. Long absence to contend with but could be one to watch over this trip on the polytrack. First To Call - This horse has only had 8 runs since his debut in 2006. Was poor on his comeback LTO when he reared leaving the stalls. Has placed twice on the All Weather and once over the distance at Lingfield but that was over 2 years ago. Mannlichen - This is one I really like from the Johnston yard. Won easily over course and distance LTO when upped in trip off a mark of 73. Has been raised 5lbs for the win but is only 3 years old so more improvement is still to come in my opinion. Only one front runner here today means she can tuck herself in to a nice position. Only other win has also came on the polytrack at Great Leighs. Motarjm - Very consistent over this trip with 2 wins and 2 places. Has won 3 times and placed 3 times out of 12 runs on the AW so handles the surface. 1 place from 4 runs at the course as well. Best form saved for Wolverhampton it seems with 3 wins there. Won over the distance off a mark 1lb higher than he runs off today. Has also won off a mark of 80 on the all weather albeit over 2 furlongs further. Is 8lbs lower than that win today so is well handicapped and could be a potential danger at his favourite trip. Aurorian - Did have the beating of Motarjm LTO but over 2 furlongs shorter so I think that could be a lot closer today over Motarjm's favoured trip although Aurorian is untried over 12 furlongs and should suit the step up in trip. Has placed once at the course over 8 furlongs off a mark of 83, runs off 77 today which she ran off of here LTO over 10 furlongs. Lyra's Daemon - Is raised 6lbs for her win over the distance at Wolverhampton LTO. That was her first try over the trip. Her other run on the AW was here over a shorter trip of 10 furlongs. I think the 6lb rise may prove too much for her but is in with a shout over the distance on a surface she handles. Drum Dragon - Has yet to win on the AW but has only had 2 attempts at it, placed once and finished 4th over course and distance LTO. Has won over the distance on turf off a mark of 67 (5lb claimer on board though). Is 5lbs higher than that win today but ran off this mark here LTO when 4th. This race is probably tougher but still in with a chance. My Tissue: Mannlichen 3/1, Aurorian 6/1, Saloon 7/1, Drum Dragon 9/1, Hallingdal 10/1, Lyra's Deamon 11/1, Motarjm 14/1, Mildoura 16/1, First To Call 20/1 Green Wadi 28/1, Cupids Glory 66/1. Will see how the market forms tomorrow, think Mannlichen will take all the beating in all honesty and may back it no matter the price tomorrow but obviously won't post that in here as it won't be a value bet if its not higher than my 3/1 which I don't think it will be.

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets 2.40 Newbury - Hennessy Gold Cup Chase Bracketed is trainer and trainer wins-runs in last fortnight (as of Thursday): Stats from Sporting Life/Irish Racing Denman (P Nicholls 7-33) - 2008 Gold Cup winner that has won 9-12 over fences, including four group 1's. Won this race in 2007 off 161 and has subsequently progressed beyond that rating. However, was below best last season after heart problems, finding himself well beaten by Madison du Berlais in the Levy Board Chase at Kempton on his reappearance. His second to Kauto Star in the Gold Cup marked some sort of return to form even if he was well held, but he fell in the Totesport Bowl when last season, again beaten by Madison du Berlais, and it would take one of the best handicap performances in living memory for him to successfully give away so much weight to this field (rated 12 lbs clear than 2nd top weight). Joe Lively (C Tizzard 2-20) - course winner in novices Grade 2 in December 2007 and made good progress last term, winning a Grade 3 handicap at the Open Meeting at Cheltenham in November and again beating Halcon Genelardais at the same track in January. He was well held in the Levy Board chase since and disappointed at Down Royal on his reappearance recently. He is 19 lb higher than his last success in handicap company and would be vulnerable to a progressive rival from further down the weights in my opinion, even if stays this far and versatile ground wise. Mon Mome (v Williams 2-30) - 2009 Grand National winner but has been raised 13 lbs for that win which perhaps puts him in the vulnerable catergory also. Questions have been raised about the merit of his National win and it would take a mammoth effort to take this on his reappearance. My Will (P Nicholls 7-33) - His third in the 2009 National has seen his mark rise 5 lbs and he lacks the potential for improvement of some as a result. He was fifth in this race last year off a 3 lb lower mark and although an experienced and reliable chaser (has won 6-29 and only fallen once) is probably weighted for place claims at the most. 4 lbs above last handicap win but credible second to the Listener on his comeback run when last seen. Barber's Shop (N Henderson 12-25)- progressive chaser that emerged as a late outsider for the Gold Cup last season. He jumped really well and travelled nicely for the best part of the race, but simply did not get home and there are question marks as to whether this trip truly suits. He won a novices chase at this track last season and remains open to more improvement off this mark, possibly developing into a Grade 1/2 winner later in the season, and if he stays, could give the favourite plenty to worry about for a yard bang in form. Killyglen (H Johnson 7-33) - unexposed chaser of Howard Johnson's that fits the historical profile of winners for this contest nicely. 3-5 over chases but all wins have been at a modest level. Pulled up in the RSA at this years festival but bounced back to slam Shining Gale (recent winner) by nine lengthst at Aintree and was outpaced and looked in need of the race when second to Knochara Beau at Carlisle, latest. Looks open to significant improvement and likely to be a major player. War of Attrition (M Morris 1-9) - experienced chaser (has won 10-22) that won the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2006 and is classy on his day. The problem is he has no place to hide from the handicapper and his best chances of winning off 154 may come in a Graded race. Was behind My Will at Down Royal last time out. Casey Jones (N Meade 3-24) - fairly lightly raced Irish chaser that won a Leopardstown Grade 1 last November and is unexposed off this sort of mark. He has rarely raced beyond 25,f pulling up in the Irish National on the one occasion he has. Started this season well with a Grade 3 win on his comeback but behind a couple of these at Down Royal an opposed as a result, even if open to further improvement. What A Friend (P Nicholls 7-33) - a bit of a let down at Cheltenham this year when sixth in the RSA and well behind Cooldine. Had the beating of Ballyfitz (who reopposes here) on an earlier bit of form and has bounced back with a win when last seen, albeit in a noddy race at Stratford. 3-4 over fences and open to more improvement but percentage call to look elsehwere at these prices. An Accordion (D Pipe 5-31) - won a couple of valuable races last season at Doncaster and Cheltenham and although 9 lbs above last win, has only tackled 8 chases to date and could have more to offer. However, does have well being to prove after pulling up in the Levy Board chase last time out and makes reappearance here. The yard have been getting them ready first time out this season though. Gone to Lunch (J Scott 0-6) - second in the Scottish National he produced another fine effort to chase home Rare Bob at Punchestown in April. 3 lbs higher than his effort in the Scots National so still handicapped to be in with shout of place claims. Was well held at Ascot on his reappearance but will appreciate this extra yardage and not written off. Snowy Morning (W Mullins 12-28) - experienced chaser that was 9th in this years National but is another vulnerable to a sharp improver. Only 5 lb higher than when third in 2008 National and chase mark has been eased of late. Recent runs in lesser events (both codes) have sharpened him up but others appeal more. Chelsea Harbour (T Mullins 0-10) - 8 lbs lower than when falling in the 2009 National but is another one whose best chances of winning may come outside of handicap company. Has had the benefit of three runs this season to sharpen him up but exposed more than some. Cappa Bleu (E Williams 4-26) - highly promising chaser from the Evan Williams yard that has shown promise in point to points but has yet to prove he can mix it with horses of this calibre. Disappointing effort when turned over at Aintree, latest, but will appreciate step up in trip and surely the best is yet to come from him. Ballyfitz (N Twiston-Davies 7-52) - backed off the boards ahead of his run in the Paddypower Gold Cup last time out and not disgraced when staying on for fourth. Has run most of his best races at Cheltenham to date but that is no reason to assume he cannot reproduce that at other tracks for the time being and possibly well handicapped on a mark of 146 again. Will appreciate the step up in trip, but held by What a Friend on a piece of form last season. 2 lb out of handicap. Kornati Kid (P Hobbs 3-34) - young chaser with more to offer but as of yet unproved outside of novices chases. Did win Wetherby Grade 2 novice race in January and could possibly expoit this mark now handicapping. Didn't see out the trip (4m) last time out and this step back in trip a positive. 3 lb out of handicap. Nenuphar Collonges (A King 7-49) - 3 lb higher than when third to Wichita Lineman at this years Festival so not handicapped out of things, and his record in handicap chases is respectable. Hasn't set the world alight in his last two starts though and others look more obvious winners. 3 lb out of handicap. Niche Market (B Buckler 2-15) - Irish National winner who is 9 lbs higher now. Well held in the Badger Ales last time out and will appreciate further, but has never scored high in the consistency stakes. 3 lb out of handicap. State of Play (E Williams 4-26)- 2006 winner of this race but the fact he races out of the weights puts him 3 lb higher now. Was fourth in the National and the handicapper has cut him 5 lbs. Goes well fresh and has a decent record over fences. Outside claims. Been well backed in recent days. New Alco (D Pipe 5-31) - 584-day break to overcome means he faces a big task from 3 lb out of the weights but was second in the William Hill trophy at the 2008 festival so by no means a lost cause if trainer has him ready. But more exposed than some and opposed. Offshore Account (C Swan 0-8) - missed the whole of 2008 with a tendon injury but reportedly schooled well and was thrown into this years National off the back of just one hurdles run. He finished no better than 15th but he hasn't seen much daylight in handicaps and looks handicapped to go close in a big race this season. Winner of a Grade 1 chase at the Punchestown festival in 2007 he is let in on a mark of 141. Although racing out of the weights (oh 7 lb), it is not beyond the realms of possibility that he could run to a mark of 148 given that Punchestown piece of form. Had the benefit of a recent hurdles spin at Galway when outpaced over inadaquate trip, and trainer reports him to be fit and firing back home. Has targeted this race and bypassed the Becher chase to participate. Outsider possibilities. My tissue: Denman 7/1, Barber's Shop 8/1, Killyglen 9/1, What A Friend 11/1, Cappa Bleu 14/1, State of Play 16/1, Gone To Lunch 18/1, Ballyfitz 20/1, Casey Jones 22/1, My Will 25/1, Snowy Morning 25/1, Nenuphar Collonges 28/1, Niche Market 28/1, Offshore Account 33/1, Kornati Kid 33/1, An Accordion 40/1, Chelsea Harbour 50/1, War of Attrition 50/1, New Alco 66/1, Joe Lively 66/1, Mon Mome 100/1

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets

2.40 Newbury - Hennessy Gold Cup Chase My tissue: Denman 7/1, Barber's Shop 8/1, Killyglen 9/1, What A Friend 11/1, Cappa Bleu 14/1, State of Play 16/1, Gone To Lunch 18/1, Ballyfitz 20/1, Casey Jones 22/1, My Will 25/1, Snowy Morning 25/1, Nenuphar Collonges 28/1, Niche Market 28/1, Offshore Account 33/1, Kornati Kid 33/1, An Accordion 40/1, Chelsea Harbour 50/1, War of Attrition 50/1, New Alco 66/1, Joe Lively 66/1, Mon Mome 100/1

Best prices currently available: Denman 4/1 PP (-7.5 %) Barber's Shop 13/2 WH (-2.23 %) Killyglen 8/1 Bet 365 (-1.1 %) What A Friend 7/1 Lads (-4.2 %) Cappa Bleu 10/1 VC Bet (-2.43 %) State of Play 16/1 Bet 365 (0 %) Gone to Lunch 16/1 Bet 365 (-0.62 %) Ballyfitz 20/1 Bet 365 (0 %) Casey Jones 20/1 Lads (-0.45 %) My Will 33/1 Lads (+0.9 %) Snowy Morning 25/1 VC Bet (0 %) Nenuphar Collonges 25/1 Sporting Bet (-0.4 %) Niche Market 40/1 Bet 365 (+1.01 %) Offshore Account 40/1 Bet 365 (+0.51 %) Kornati Kid 33/1 Bet 365 (0 %) An Accordion 33/1 Bet 365 (-0.51 %) Chelsea Harbour 50/1 Bet 365 (0 %) War of Attrition 40/1 WH (-0.47 %) New Alco 40/1 bet 365 (-0.94 %) Joe Lively 40/1 Bet 365 (-0.94 %) Mon Mome 50/1 Lads (-1 %) I have already backed Offshore Account Ante-post at 70.0 (+1.5 %) and have now topped that up further at 55.0 and am also backing My Will at 33/1 with Lads. The percentages look tight according to my tissue but I am always open to allowing for a bit of error in my estimates and i think both are good each-way prices.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Your Professional Bets

19:00 Kempton My Tissue: Mannlichen 3/1, Aurorian 6/1, Saloon 7/1, Drum Dragon 9/1, Hallingdal 10/1, Lyra's Deamon 11/1, Motarjm 14/1, Mildoura 16/1, First To Call 20/1 Green Wadi 28/1, Cupids Glory 66/1. Will see how the market forms tomorrow, think Mannlichen will take all the beating in all honesty and may back it no matter the price tomorrow but obviously won't post that in here as it won't be a value bet if its not higher than my 3/1 which I don't think it will be.

Here are the best prices Available: Mannlichen - 5/4 Lyra's Daemon - 6/1 Saloon - 9/1 Drum Dragon 10/1 Mildoura 12/1 Green Wadi 12/1 First To Call 20/1 Hallingdal 22/1 Cupids Glory 25/1 Motarjm 28/1 4 prices longer than I have predicted, Hallingdal and Motarjm are probably the most value for me as Saloon and Drum Dragon are not much out. Still going to back Mannlichen but won't be a value bet as such. Value Bets: 0.5pts E/W Hallingdal (22/1 - Coral) and Motarjm (28/1 - Coral)

[stewartd14]

Re: Your Professional Bets

My Tissue: Mannlichen 3/1, Aurorian 6/1, Saloon 7/1, Drum Dragon 9/1, Hallingdal 10/1, Lyra's Deamon 11/1, Motarjm 14/1, Mildoura 16/1, First To Call 20/1 Green Wadi 28/1, Cupids Glory 66/1. Will see how the market forms tomorrow, think Mannlichen will take all the beating in all honesty and may back it no matter the price tomorrow but obviously won't post that in here as it won't be a value bet if its not higher than my 3/1 which I don't think it will be.

First of all, another great write up in this thread. One of many and :clap to all involved. However, if I may have some input. The last comment you make Stu makes no sense to me. Surely whether you have made a tissue or not, you should be looking to back a horse at a value price. The fact you have made a tissue is excellent, but in your tissue you have Mannlichen as 3/1. Surely there is no reason for you to back that horse at any price under 3/1, as it will not be a value bet in your eyes. If you think its a cert, then you should surely alter your tissue price, but thats the beauty about tissues IMO. They help you put a more objective view to the race. To go against that, though, and say you will back Mannlichen at any price, will not see you succeed at betting. Its like having a gut instince a coin is going to come up heads and backing heads at 4/6. You are pricing the horse up at 3/1, so trust your instinct mate. Your a good enough punter to make a good tissue, so dont go against it. :ok

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional Bets Here is my 100% book. Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup 3m2f110yds Chase Newbury Working out for soft ground. First line is best to worst chance, percentage, fair odds, (adding a “bookies mark up” to my prices as a check). 1/ 16% 11/2 (+ 2% = 9/2) 9 11-12 Denman 174 Brilliant winner of Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2008. Well handicapped on that run, despite now being off a 13lbs higher mark than when successful in this race two years ago. Needs to be better than last season when struggling with heart problems. Apparently looked well in a racecourse gallop at Exeter. Stable's horses generally need a run to bring them on this term. Races prominently (Stable form 6/10) 4/1 fav. R. Walsh 20/ 0.75% 132/1 (+ 0.75% = 66/1) 10 11-0 Joe Lively 162 Genuine stayer last season, injured in February and only 5^th in Ireland on return. Front runner / races prominently. (SF 6/10) 40/1 G. Hawkins (7) 17/ 1.25% 80/1 (+ 1% = 40/1) 9 10-13 Mon Mome 161 100/1 Grand National winner off a mark 13lbs lower than this. Speedier than Aintee suggests. Might have another primary target and need reappearance. Tracks pace / held up. (SF 6/10) 50/1 A. Coleman 13/ 2.25% 40/1 (+ 1% = 28/1) 9 10-9 My Will 157 Suited by 3m2f and more. Ran a good race to be 5^th in last years Cheltenham Gold Cup. Little below form 3^rd in Grand National and now races off a 5lb higher mark. Ran reasonably first time out, never with much chance of winning when 15 lengths 2^nd to The Listener in a 3m grade 1 chase in Ireland. Seems more exposed than most in this field, place chances but can't see him winning. Held up. (SF 6/10) 33/1 N. Schofield 3/ 10% 9/1 (+ 2.5% = 7/1) 7 10-8 Barbers Shop 156 Well backed in recent days to give The Queen a Hennessy winner. Seemed an unlikely stayer but ran really well 7^th in Gold Cup at this trip. Not run yet in 2009/10 but excellent record fresh (2^nd in Paddy Power Gold Cup last term). Should run well here if conditions don't place too much emphasis on stamina. Held up. Wears first time cheek pieces. (SF 10/10) 13/2 B. Gerrraghty 2/ 14.5% 6/1 (+ 2.5% = 5/1) 7 10-6 Killyglen154 Won Mildmay Novices Chase at Aintree on final start in 08/09.

Beat Shining Gale easily by 9 lengths when receiving 2lbs. Charlie Manns charge won a grade 2 handicap at the weekend from a mark of 145. Would have won a lot more decisively but for being injured on the run in. Before Aintree, Killyglen pulled up in RSA chase after interrupted preparation. Below form at Carlisle on reappearance over a vastly inadequate trip (2 ½ miles). Stable is in much better form now too. Only defeats so far over fences when possibly not 100% fit? Second season chaser with potential to improve. Goes well on a soft surface. Held up. (SF 7/10) 8/1 D. O'Regan 16/ 1.5% 66/1 (+ 0.75% = 40/1) 10 10-6 War Of Attrition 154 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner for the Irish in 2006, seems on the downgrade now but handicap mark is falling with ability. Ran reasonably when 3^rd to The Listener on soft. Very best form on firmer ground. Held up. (SF 5/10) 40/1 N. Madden 14/ 1.5% 66/1 (+ 1.25% = 33/1) 8 10-4 An Accordian 152 Looked to be capable of better when winning William Hill Handicap at Cheltenham Festival in 2008. Only seen once since, pulled up. Has looked a tricky ride and plays a silly tune when in front. Held up / tracks pace. Blinkered and tongue tied. (SF 6/10) 33/1 T.Scudamore 5/ 6.5% 15/1 (+ 2% = 11/1) 8 10-4 Casey Jones 152 Just behind War Of Attrition and My Will last time. Best in of the three at these weights and may be better suited by going left handed here. Carberry stopped riding too soon (gave up) when staying on 5^th in RSA Chase. Has been inconsistent in the past. Possibly needs more throttle to his engine. Held up / tracks pace. (SF 6/10) 20/1 N. Fehily. Tongue tied. 7/ 6.5% 15/1 (+ 2.5% = 10/1) 6 10-4 What A Friend 152 Second string of Paul Nicholls and second favourite to Denman. But the price relates more to trainer's opinion than form shown on the racecourse. Winner of three small field novice chases last term but flopped in the RSA starting second favourite. Owned by Sir Alex Ferguson, holds his head high and sometimes looks awkward. Held up. (SF 6/10) 7/1 S. Thomas 6/ 6.5% 15/1 (+ 2% = 11/1) 9 10-3 Gone To Lunch 151 From the small but successful yard of J. Scott. Suited by extreme distances, insufficient test on reappearance. Laziness means he's usually under pressure early. Though that trait possibly makes the handicapper struggle to get his worth. Went close in Scottish National and now off just a 3lb higher mark. Possibly at his very best away from very soft ground and goes well for AP McCoy. Held up. (SF 4/10) 16/1 S. Durack 10/ 3.75% 25/1 (+ 1% = 20/1) 9 10-2 Snowy Morning 150 Irish, dropped 6lbs since running 9^th in Grand National. Thought by trainer never quite right last season. Now just 5lbs higher than when 3^rd in 08 renewal. In next start 7 lengths second to Neptunes Collonges in Grade 1 2008 Punchestown Gold Cup. Most form not as good. Not as good a jumper of park fences and fell when favourite for Denman's Hennessy. Held up. (SF 9/10) 25/1 P. Townend 9/ 5.75% 16/1 (+ 2.25% = 12/1) 7 10-0 Cappa Bleu 148 Won Foxhunter Chase at Cheltenham for trainer Sheila Crow. Has age and physical scope to make a better horse against professionals this term. Now with Evan Williams who was successful in this race with State Of Play in 2007. Only 3^rd over inadequate 2m4f on return in October. Expected to do better at this distance, but stable jockey's decision to ride his stable companion seems a negative. Held up? (SF 6/10) 10/1 W. Hutchinson. Tongue tied. 21/ 0.25% 400/1 (+ 0.75% = 100/1) 9 10-0 Chelsea Harbour 148 Irish chaser who was only 6^th at Cheltenham last time, does not jump well enough to win a race like this. Likes a test of stamina. First time blinkers have to work wonders. Races prominently. (SF 4/10) 50/1 A. Lynch 8/ 6% 16/1 (+ 2% = 12/1) 9 10-0 (9-12) Ballyfitz 146 Ran well enough in terms of form when well fancied in Paddy Power (2m5f, 4^th). Staying on which suggest has a chance at 3m2f110yds. Will have to improve his jumping though, best efforts so far over fences in small fields when able to dominate. 2lbs out of the handicap. Carruthers coming out may help his jumping, front runner / races prominently / tracks pace. (SF 7/10) 20/1 P. Brennen 11/ 3.25%28/1 (+ 2% = 18/1) 7 10-0 (9-11) Kornati Kid 145 Found 4 miles too far in National Hunt Chase but should stay this trip. Progressive chaser up to that point and could do better in 09/10. Acts well on a soft surface. 3lbs out of the handicap. Tracks pace. (SF 6/10) 33/1 R. Johnson 12/ 2.75% 33/1 (+ 1.25% = 25/1) 8 10-0 (9-11) Nenuphar Collonges 145 Lazy but genuine staying chaser. 3^rd to Wichita Lineman in William Hill Handicap at Festival off a 3lbs lower mark. Suited by a strongly run race. Made mistakes on reappearance, only 6^th at Wincanton. 3lbs out of the handicap. Held up. (SF 5/10) 33/1 R. Thornton. Blinkered. 19/ 1% 100/1 (+ 1% = 50/1) 8 10-0 (9-11) New Alco 145 Last start on April 23^rd 2008. Now runs off same mark as when second to An Accordian in 08 William Hill Handicap. Now weighted to finish alongside if it was not for being 3lbs out of the handicap. May not stay this trip in very testing conditions. Held up. (SF 6/10) 40/1 M. O'Connell 15/ 1.5% 66/1 (+ 1% = 40/1) 8 10-0 (9-11) Niche Market 145 Good jumper. Progressed all last season and ended up an English trained winner of the Irish Grand National. Usually races prominently. Probably needed race first time this season, could be trained specifically for Aintree this time around. Races prominently. (SF 6/10) 40/1 A. Glassonberry (3) 4/ 7.25% 13/1 (+ 1.75% = 10/1) 9 10-0 (9-11) State Of Play 145 Winner of this in 2007 off this exact same mark. Though 3lbs out of the handicap here. Off a mark 5lbs higher when 4^th in the Grand National final start. This his first start since Aintree, but runs his best races fresh. Stable has better fancied Cappa Bleu. Held up / tracks pace. (SF 6/10) 16/1 P. Moloney 18/ 1.25% 80/1 (+ 1% = 40/1) 9 10-0 (9-7) Offshore Account 141Prolific winner in his novice season culminating in Grade 1 Champion Novice Chase. Benefited from Aces Four (2^nd to Denman in RSA) falling at the last. Well handicapped (even with being out of the weights) on that best run (firm surface), but injured and lightly raced since. Also a winner on heavy. Tracks pace / races prominently. (SF 4/10) 40/1 D. Casey. Tongue tied.

[mowgli77]

Re: Your Professional Bets Ginge/Fintron/StuSimmy etc - what is your idea of a tissue for the Fighting Fifth Hurdle on Saturday? There are only 7 runners and the betting is dominated by the first 2 in the betting but is there any value elsewhere in the race? Here is my idea of a tissue to 99.1% and current prices available in red bold: Binocular 11-8 (42%) EVS Solwhit 85-40 (32%) 13-8 Sublimity 6-1 (14%) 12-1 Go Native 20-1 (4.8%) 20-1 Al Eile 25-1 (3.8%) 20-1 Blue Bajan 66-1 (1.5%) 50-1 Won In The Dark 100-1 (1%) 50-1 I think Sublimity has been underestimated due to a poor run in lasy years Champion Hurdle when it was way back in the field but there seems to have been a genuine excuse for that and the jockey reported that the horse could not breathe. It has since had an operation and they seemed very pleased with it's 3rd place, only beaten 1 length in a listed race. It is a previous Champion Hurdle winner and was then 2nd in last years Fighting Fifth to Punjabi, which then went and won last years Champion Hurdle so that form looks pretty solid to me. It has proven it acts here last year and there are very positive vibes coming from the trainer. Binocular and Solwhit are the classy young pretenders and I rate both highly but it is dangerous to write off the older horses that have been there and done it - look what happened when Hardy Eustace took on Jered, Sizing Europe and Won In The Dark last year and won at 14-1. Sublimity is the bet for me at the odds available and what I would consider "value". :ok

[StuSimmy]

Re: Your Professional Bets

First of all, another great write up in this thread. One of many and :clap to all involved. However, if I may have some input. The last comment you make Stu makes no sense to me. Surely whether you have made a tissue or not, you should be looking to back a horse at a value price. The fact you have made a tissue is excellent, but in your tissue you have Mannlichen as 3/1. Surely there is no reason for you to back that horse at any price under 3/1, as it will not be a value bet in your eyes. If you think its a cert, then you should surely alter your tissue price, but thats the beauty about tissues IMO. They help you put a more objective view to the race. To go against that, though, and say you will back Mannlichen at any price, will not see you succeed at betting. Its like having a gut instince a coin is going to come up heads and backing heads at 4/6. You are pricing the horse up at 3/1, so trust your instinct mate. Your a good enough punter to make a good tissue, so dont go against it. :ok

Thanks mate and I understand where you are coming from. You are right, I should have ignored it since it was under 3/1 and ended up 2nd, obviously it wasn't beaten because of its odds but had I stuck to my own tissue and only backed those of value I would have ignored it and saved myself some cash. Will learn from my mistakes and I appreciate the feedback/comments you have made. Nice to know you regard me as a good punter :ok Will maybe have another crack tomorrow as the more I do, the more accurate I will hopefully become. Think I will still make picks without tissues as well and see if it really is worth my while doing a tissue.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Your Professional Bets Just noticed your post now mowgli, might have a go at doing a tissue for that tonight or tomorrow, not the most knowledgable on the jumps as of yet but after this season I hope to be but I might have a go at a tissue.

[billy the punter]

Re: Your Professional Bets I won't be playing in the Fighting Fifth but in the spirit of the thread... Binnocular's hurdle form is almost faultless. Beaten just twice and those two 2nd's were arguably his best performances. Solwhit has hardly put a foot wrong either. Due to opposition perhaps not being at their best against him (needing the run LTO, and perhaps over the top at Punchestown), I feel he has just a little to find with Binnocular on the book. Connections have struggled to get Sublimity right for a couple of years now. A shame as he could've added to his Chamption Hurdle win. As Mowgli says connections are happy they have ironed out some problems so an improved run could be on the cards, however even if he reproduces his Champion Hurdle form of 2008 (4th), would it be enough to lower the front two's colours? The level of Go Native's form looks just below this standard. We haven't seen much of Al Eile lately and I'm not sure this is his race. Rather back him in the spring. Blue Bajan is a horse I really like but I'm not sure he'll be at his best in this 7-runner affair. To me he enjoys the hustle and bustle of a big field and a handicap-style strong pace. If we had 16 runners and they were running off their marks then maybe I'd be interested. Some may think I'm being biased due to a certain flat formline ;), but I honestly believe Won In The Dark to be a very smart hurdler, especially on his ground. 1O1213120 on yeilding/gs or better including two decent runs at the Festival; 3rd in the 2008 Triumph and a respectable 10th in last season's Champion hurdle with plenty of good animals behind. A disappointing effort on the flat LTO, which is a worry, but a return to hurdle form would suggest he is far from a no-hoper. Think the betting is about right with Binnocular, Solwhit, Go Native and Blue Bajan. Think that Sublimity and Al Eile are possibly a little too short. Won In The Dark is over priced (50/1) in my opinion, around a 28/1 chance in my eyes. Would probably get involved with if there were 8 runners, if the 8th runner wasn't a threat obviously. :ok

[StuSimmy]

Re: Your Professional Bets Third attempt: 15:05 Lingfield Johnstown Lad - Yet to win on the All Weather but has 7 placed from 12 runs. One of those places was over Course and Distance LTO when he was 2nd in a Class 4 handicap off a mark of 81 (3lb claimer on board). Is a distance winner when he won on turf in September. Does have claims off this mark due to recent CD outing but others have stronger claims in my opinion. First start for new yard. Pawan - Last win came on New Years day in a class 2 handicap at Southwell over 5 furlongs. Hasn't really done much since and better form over 5 furlongs. Has won over course and distance but that was 5 years ago. River Kirov - Loves the All Weather course here with 2 wins and 1 place from 3 runs here, has run over CD on the turf here as well but was unplaced. Won a claimer in Octover at Wolverhampton over the distance off a mark of 76 and has won 4 times this year in total all off marks of 70+ with 3 of those wins coming in handicaps (2 class 4 and one class 5). Was 2nd here over CD off of 79 so must have claims off a mark of 80 today. Capone - Had the beating of River Kirov LTO. Is only 3 and has been improving very well since joining Roger Curtis. The switch to the AW seems to have worked well too with a good 5th in a Class 3 race over course and distance 2 outings ago and a 2nd over the distance at Kempton LTO off a mark of 80. Runs off the same mark today so is definately a leading player here. Lucky Leigh - This horse has some decent form in group company. Ran in a Group 2 race at Ascot last year as a 2 year old and finished 4/17 and was within a length of the winner. Was then 5/8 over the 6 furlong trip a month later. Has ran poorly in listed races since and has only won once since which came here over the minimum trip in October off a mark of 72. Better form has come over 5 furlongs. Could spring a surprise. Billy Red - Won well over course and distance in a Class 5 handicap off a mark of 68 back in October. Has ran poorly in both racrs since, 1 over course and distance where he was 11/12. Johnstown Lad ran in the same race and was well clear of him. Is still 7lbs higher than said win back in October. For Life - Twice a course and distance winner in Class 4 handicaps off a mark just 1lb lower than today. All wins have been when Natalie has been on board so she knows the horse well. Poor run LTO here which was 3 and a half months ago. Not sure how the break will effect the horse but could have a slight chance. Fazbee - Another 3 year old I like. Ran in a group 3 race back in April off a mark of 86, has dropped down to a mark of 71 now which means this horse could potentially be very well handicapped. The fact she has won over the distance at Great Leighs off a mark of 86 in 2008 (Class 5 Novice Stakes) and placed off of 88 over the distance at Great Leighs in a Class 4 handicap proves she can win/place on the AW off higher marks. All other runs on the AW have been over further and the drop back down to 6 furlongs today may be ideal for her. Brandywell Boy - Won 3 times this year but in weaker events than this. 2 of those wins were off lower marks of 58 and 68 (7lb claimer on board). Has also won off 72 (7lb claimer) but in a Class 6 claimer. Runs off 71 today but I just can't see him winning here. My Tissue: Capone 7/2, Fazbee 4/1, River Kirov 5/1, Johnstown Lad 17/2, For Life 10/1, Lucky Leigh 10/1, Billy Red 16/1, Pawan 25/1, Brandywell Boy 28/1. Fazbee is currently 14.5 on Betfair, would love to get around 12/1 for him tomorrow since I have him down as a 4/1 shot. River Kirov is trading at 7.8 so if he goes up at 7 or 8/1 I may back him as well. I know how much the market can change overnight though so I will see how the market is when I get up tomorrow. Just hope Hugh Taylor stays away from Fazbee :lol

[StuSimmy]

Re: Your Professional Bets

Third attempt: 15:05 Lingfield My Tissue: Capone 7/2, Fazbee 4/1, River Kirov 5/1, Johnstown Lad 17/2, For Life 10/1, Lucky Leigh 10/1, Billy Red 16/1, Pawan 25/1, Brandywell Boy 28/1.

Best odds available: Capone 2/1 Johnstown Lad 11/4 River Kirov 11/2 Billy Red 12/1 Fazbee - 16/1 Lucky Leigh 16/1 For Life - 20/1 Pawan 20/1 Brandywell Boy 25/1 As you can see there are 4 that are better prices. Would like around 13/2 before I consider River Kirov but may have a small saver at 11/2 or 6/1 (hopefully it drifts a bit). Think I will have an each way on all the other 3 with Fazbee being my strongest bet. 1.5 pts Each way Fazbee @ 16/1 (Stan James) 0.5pts Each Way Lucky Leigh @ 16/1 (Betfred) 0.5pts Each Way For Life @ 20/1 (Stan James)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Your Professional Bets Was well off with that race, the outsider in my tissue won at the price I had it at, Billy Red 2nd and Capone third. Might do another one over the weekend but probably won't have much time so maybe won't get round to doping one until into next week.

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets

Ginge/Fintron/StuSimmy etc - what is your idea of a tissue for the Fighting Fifth Hurdle on Saturday? There are only 7 runners and the betting is dominated by the first 2 in the betting but is there any value elsewhere in the race? Here is my idea of a tissue to 99.1% and current prices available in red bold: Binocular 11-8 (42%) EVS Solwhit 85-40 (32%) 13-8 Sublimity 6-1 (14%) 12-1 Go Native 20-1 (4.8%) 20-1 Al Eile 25-1 (3.8%) 20-1 Blue Bajan 66-1 (1.5%) 50-1 Won In The Dark 100-1 (1%) 50-1 I think Sublimity has been underestimated due to a poor run in lasy years Champion Hurdle when it was way back in the field but there seems to have been a genuine excuse for that and the jockey reported that the horse could not breathe. It has since had an operation and they seemed very pleased with it's 3rd place, only beaten 1 length in a listed race. It is a previous Champion Hurdle winner and was then 2nd in last years Fighting Fifth to Punjabi, which then went and won last years Champion Hurdle so that form looks pretty solid to me. It has proven it acts here last year and there are very positive vibes coming from the trainer. Binocular and Solwhit are the classy young pretenders and I rate both highly but it is dangerous to write off the older horses that have been there and done it - look what happened when Hardy Eustace took on Jered, Sizing Europe and Won In The Dark last year and won at 14-1. Sublimity is the bet for me at the odds available and what I would consider "value". :ok

I would personally price the race up (99.8 %) at this: Binocular 6/5, Solwhit 7/4, Sublimity 14/1, Go Native 22/1, Al Eile, 28/1, Won In The Dark 50/1, Blue Bajan 66/1 I thought that Solwhit had double the chance of the rest of the field (bar Binocular) combined and thought Binocular had stronger claims than Solwhit, so settled on those figures. I thought Sublimity was 5 or 6 times less likely to win than Solwhit so arrived at around the 13/1 - 14/1 mark, and tweaked the percentages for the bottom five in the market to bring it down below 100 %. If each-way betting had been available then like you I would have probably had an each-way bet on Sublimity for the sake of a few percent, but I can't see him edging out the front two so have not had a bet in the race.