Your Professional Bets

[chris34]

Re: Your Professional Bets Im gonna put one forward for tomorrow: This is taken from my personal thread/daily thread

4.00 Wolverhampton Highlight of the card and many of these look set for a winter in similar races and spending the months clashing so good to get on top early, it’s a thoroughly exposed line up with many of these getting on in the years. Toms Laughter is massively over priced in my opinion at 10/1, his tendency to be slow away at stalls is costing him races valuably now but if they can get him to start on level terms he should go well having run on strongly on latest start over this trip, clearly didn’t get home last time over 6f having to be pushed along at the start to get on terms but back to 5f should suit much better and is now running of last winning mark from a good draw from stall 6. Fantasy explorer is rightly favourite here with a good draw from stall 1, won over 6f well infront of some well fancied sorts although form not brilliant from that race but he went on to prove he is in form when second behind Green Manalishi in same race toms laughter caught my eye and gets to run off same mark today and can string decent efforts together. 0.5pt e/w toms laughter 10/1 bet365 0.25pt win fantasy explorer 9/2 bet365

Toms laughter throws his races away all to easily at start and got caught short over 6f recently but return to 5f is ideal and he was only 1/2length down on the second fantasy explorer they meet again today on same terms yet theres a huge price difference and tom looks the better value and I would be happy backing down to 5/1! (since posted these earlier both have been trimmed 7/2 and 9/1 respectively)

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional Bets

Im gonna put one forward for tomorrow: This is taken from my personal thread/daily thread Toms laughter throws his races away all to easily at start and got caught short over 6f recently but return to 5f is ideal and he was only 1/2length down on the second fantasy explorer they meet again today on same terms yet theres a huge price difference and tom looks the better value and I would be happy backing down to 5/1! (since posted these earlier both have been trimmed 7/2 and 9/1 respectively)

Unlucky Chris, Fantasy Believer was going really well, backed down to 15/8 fav too (tipped at 9/2). So you picked the value. Lost second on the line. Toms Laughter also shortened to 8/1 (tipped at 10/1), losing all chance at the start when slowly away. Making some ground up late on. :ok

[chris34]

Re: Your Professional Bets Yeah, my main worry was the slow away tactics of toms laughter, if he broke on level terms he would have to be pushed along and exert so much so earlier, also forced wide route aswell, as fin said in his thread there is more to come from him this winter. Toms laughter did shorten up a bit more but then market got slapped by Hugh Taylors tip and fav was heavily backed aswell so im still convinced that was a good value bet. Unfortunately dont get many opportunities to participate in this sort of betting due to my work but i certainly hope to tackle this a bit more over the winter might try my first attempt at a 100% book later this week if get a chance ;)

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets

Yeah' date=' my main worry was the slow away tactics of toms laughter, if he broke on level terms he would have to be pushed along and exert so much so earlier, also forced wide route aswell, as fin said in his thread there is more to come from him this winter. Toms laughter did shorten up a bit more but then market got slapped by Hugh Taylors tip and fav was heavily backed aswell so im still convinced that was a good value bet. Unfortunately dont get many opportunities to participate in this sort of betting due to my work but i certainly hope to tackle this a bit more over the winter might try my first attempt at a 100% book later this week if get a chance ;)[/quote'] Yeah, like you say Tom's Laughter ran on well at the end, but having been forced so far wide (practically onto the stands rail) coming into the straight, he lost a bit of ground. By contract, Ivory Silk, who had been also held up at the back throughout, managed to find gaps on the inside, and found her way into the places.

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets My notes for the 2.40 at Folkestone today 2.40 Folkestone Pur de Sivola - distance winner in '07, has won RH but prefers galloping tracks. Back down to winning mark, from novice handicap in '07 but recent form offputting and absence to overcome (has needed run prev). Misty Dancer - has won chases over dist between 16-19f, inc RH, but all wins but none on undulating tracks. Has dropped 2 lb lowe than last chase win but that was back in '07. Sharp from recent outings but others appeal more. Sovereign King - course winner in novices hurdle in '07, has won a beginners chase since (Dec '08). Open to more imprvoement but well held in handicaps last twice and absence to overcome. William Bonney - has responded well to headgear and won a couple of novcies events over two miles at Ludlow. Has won RH and on undulating tracks, and although has stamina to prove, encouraging third to Kew Jumper over this trip at Worcester off 1 lb lower when last seen. Fair chance. Pauillac - won novice chase two years ago but not since. Well held over both hurdles and chases in recent starts and more questions than answers today on return from 249-day break. Yard falsifies price. Nikos Extra - Stable first string on jockey bookings, has won over trip over hurdles and shaped well enough on chase debut last time out at Wetherby. Has won RH, on undulating track although may not want much slower ground. Leading contender if rain stays away. Manm0on - chase maiden after six runs, had won over 2m 3f at Exeter over hurdles though. Plenty to prove off back of recent chase efforts when well beaten. Sninfia - modest strike race over hurdles but 1-5 in chases and lightly races in handicap chases. 11 lb higher than when winning at Bangor last May but pulled up when last seen and opposable today following lengthy break. Pistol Desbois - lightly raced six year old that won over 20-22f over hurdles and on RH/undulating tracks. Chase form has been pretty uninspiring today in three runs, but open to improvement all the same if schooled well - returns from break today. Giolla De - won at Clonmel off 85 three years ago, now 26 lbs higher, but has placed since off intermediate marks. Has often left impression that would be worth a crack at 3m though, so may find todays trip on sharp side. Far More Serious - turned out under penalty for 10 length win in Hereford chase last week and open to further improvement over fences. Started chasing in '06, never really took off, switched back to hurdles, but since coming back into this sphere this year has looked improved, placing over further at Exeter off 3 lb lower and didn't get home over that track over 3 miles next time out. Clearly handles RH, undulating course, leading contender. Shake The Barley - inconsistent but has won 3-10 in this sphere and, notably, yard firing in the winners this week. Only 3 lb higher than last handicap win, proven over distance, on ground and on RH/undulating tracks. Outsider claims now race fit. Ammunition - 7 lb higher than last win two years ago, but placed last time out at Towcester off 2 lb lower. Will handle this track, soft ground no problem if conditions worsen and has won two races over 2m 4f so trip here should suit. Good chance. Oncle Kid - 23 race NH maiden, pulled up when last seen and confidently opposed. Sandy Mac - winner off 100 over hurdles a couple of years ago, has recently moved into this sphere and made a pleasing start, winning off 10 lb lower at Fontwell in May (over slightly further), was then fourth to Shake The Barley at the same track later than month, before bouncing back with credible second off 4 lb lower last time out at Wincanton. Runs off same terms with Shake The Barley today, work to do to reverse that form if that rival is at his best, but solid claims nonetheless.

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets My tissue for that race: Far More Serious 5/1, Nikos Extra 13/2, William Bonney 7/1, Ammunition 8/1, Shake The Barley 11/1, Sandy Mac 12/1, Misty Dancer 12/1, Giolla De 16/1, Pistol Desbois 20/1, Sninfia 28/1, Pauillac 40/1, Sovereign King 50/1, Manmoon 66/1, Pur de Sivola 80/1, Oncle Kid 100/1 I struggled pricing it up to be honest, I was sure I thought Far More Serious would be my fav, but deciding the percentages for those around 2nd - 5th in the betting was the ones that caused me most hassle. I seem to have missed something with Pauillac - an 11/1 chance with the bookies - probably down to trainer reputation/work at home? Still happy with my original selection in this race though, Shake The Barley - seems overpriced to me at 20/1 with Bet 365. I have him down as an 8.3 % chance (11/1) yet he can be backed at 4.76 % (20/1). Others ones that are seemingly value in my eyes would be the favourite (2.4 % discrepency), Misty Dancer (1 % discrepency), Giolla De (2 % discrepency) and Sninfia (1.43 % discrepency) but accounting for a bit of leeway I wouldn't touch those anyway. As I say, still a learning curve for me is this, so will be interesting to see why I have overestimated Shake The Barley so much or whether that was justified.....

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Your Professional Bets

My tissue for that race: Far More Serious 5/1, Nikos Extra 13/2, William Bonney 7/1, Ammunition 8/1, Shake The Barley 11/1, Sandy Mac 12/1, Misty Dancer 12/1, Giolla De 16/1, Pistol Desbois 20/1, Sninfia 28/1, Pauillac 40/1, Sovereign King 50/1, Manmoon 66/1, Pur de Sivola 80/1, Oncle Kid 100/1

I really must be missing something as everyone seemingly rates the horse in bold as having little or no chance and he is being priced up everywhere at massive odds. I have obviously looked at this race very very wrong, as no way can I be right, and everyone else wrong. :unsure

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets Its all down to opinions though RB, you may have sensed something others haven't. Myself, looking at that horse, I thought he was stable second string and would come on for the run given his 200+ day break. The reason I gave him such a big price was because his win came in a small field, non-handicap and in two previous runs in handicap company he has been beaten by wide margins. But for every person like me looking at the negatives there will be one such as yourself looking at the positives............ he is open to more improvement over fences (only 4 runs to date) and the yard is in very good form (e.g. Bensalem and Betchworth Kid going in yesterday). Looking at my selection again I think the reason for the apparent discrepency in price is down inconsistency. Both Timeform (on ATR) and RP comment on his jumping being hit and miss, and perhaps their odds compilers have erred on the side of caution, whereas I have perhaps not factored enough of the inconsistency into my price?

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Your Professional Bets

Its all down to opinions though RB, you may have sensed something others haven't. Myself, looking at that horse, I thought he was stable second string and would come on for the run given his 200+ day break.

Yeah, I see what you mean mate. I was thinking more that he seemingly runs ok after a layoff. Won seasonal debut 2 years ago, at this course, beating Oh Crick in a Novice hurdle at huge odds. Unseated rider, on last years debut at the 6th but was going ok...too early to really tell though. The other positive is, it wouldn't be the first time a King second string this season would run well at a big price, off a big weight, when another seemingly more fancied runner in the field. Today Nikos Extra / Sovereign King Couple Weeks back Bouggler / Trenchant All about opinions though as you say, just a little less positive about mine now :rollin

[mileni4uk]

Re: Your Professional Bets Bouggler is Ema Lavelle's. Lake Legend was the 1st string from King that day and finished PU.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Your Professional Bets

Bouggler is Ema Lavelle's. Lake Legend was the 1st string from King that day and finished PU.

:$ I knew there was one well fancied. Still a good example. :ok There is another one I recall as well... I just need to dig it out.

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets shake the barley is trading at 40.0 plus on the exchanges. Just snapped up some 40.0, as even allowing for poor jumping that is too big imo.

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets Not seen the 2.40 as I've been busy but I auto-laid Shake The Barley at 2/1 in running for guaranteed profit and saw it matched to it must have gone close, finished 3rd at 25/1, btn by a couple of lengths.No surprises with the front two either really, both were logical picks, even if the fav went off shorter then expected so pretty pleased with that.

[JackJarvis]

Re: Your Professional Bets

Not seen the 2.40 as I've been busy but I auto-laid Shake The Barley at 2/1 in running for guaranteed profit and saw it matched to it must have gone close' date=' finished 3rd at 25/1, btn by a couple of lengths.No surprises with the front two either really, both were logical picks, even if the fav went off shorter then expected so pretty pleased with that.[/quote'] Great pick mate, was in front jumping the last but just faded on the run in. :ok

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets Bollocks, would have been my biggest win of the season :@

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional Bets Well done Fin, good pick, it's always some consolation getting value. Even if the pocket does not feel it.:ok

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Your Professional Bets Good pick Fin :clap (and Milen in the Folkestone thread) Sovereign King stayed on for 4th. (I thought he would stay on given previous record). Still can't judge if he was really overpriced or not though. Was I way out in my judgement of him?

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets I'd say you were more right than I was and the others that made him a 50/1 chance or whatever. He was no match for the leading trio but one was bang in form, one was open to plenty of improvement and was well backed, and the third was well handicapped if in one of his good moods - which he was. Soverign King was in mid-division alongside Shake The Barley iirc, and although he couldn't go with that trio, that run surely has to go down as a career best, it looked a competitive race and it was much more closer to winning then when in handicap company previously. He will be sharper for the run, and possibly even a step up in trip to three miles may help in my opinion.

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets

Well done Fin' date=' good pick, it's always some consolation getting value. Even if the pocket does not feel it.:ok[/quote'] Cheers, the thread is nicely in profit after Gallant Nuit went in the other day (nice pick btw)for you and now this one has earned a bit of place money, effectively a winner at 3.63. I think Tom's Laughter was a bit unlucky to be forced so wide for Chris yesterday, and could gain compensation soon.

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets Most eyes will be on Haydock this weekend but the race I am most looking forward to is the Troytown H'Cap Chase run at Navan on the Sunday (2.35). Treacle, Paddy Pub and Away We Go are three young chasers I have been really impressed with this season and they lock horns in this valuable three mile chase that contains several more experienced faces like Ballytrim, A New Story and Pomme Tiepy. Treacle had the beating of Paddy Pub in the Munster National at Limerick in October, that rival has franked the form, but the former is weighted to confirm placings here off better terms. For that reason I think Treacle is deservedly favourite but I am wanting to chance Away We Go at a much bigger price, as he impressed me when chasing home Paddy Pub two weeks ago. He travelled well throughout and looks handicapped to win races. he has been put up 3 lbs despite a two and a half length beating but the winner has gone up 8 lbs, so there is hope of him reversing placings. Proven in testing conditions, he got the three miles no problem at Limerick, and I think relative to the likes of Paddy Pub and Treacle he is too big. 16/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt EW (4 places, 1/4 odds).

[mileni4uk]

Re: Your Professional Bets I am more than happy with my 7/1 on the place market. He always looked held by Nikos Extra, who was well handicapped and cruised into the lead. Won easily. And the Charlie Longsdon horse was also well handicapped, he absolutely romped home last time and the penalty would have never stopped him. Tom George is really hitting form and Nacarat is 90 for the Betfair chase on Betfair :D

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets mileni, is nacarat swerving the race? 100.0 seems way way too big to be normal, same with barbers shop, who travelled well but didnt get home in the gold cup.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Your Professional Bets

mileni' date=' is nacarat swerving the race? 100.0 seems way way too big to be normal, same with barbers shop, who travelled well but didnt get home in the gold cup.[/quote'] Yea, he isn't priced with bookies, so I guess he won't run. And Barbers Shop is going for the Hennessy.

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets One for tonight at Kempton in the 8.50. Soccerjackpot - currently backable at 10/1 with Stans, which does seem overly big. The whole bet falls down if the Godolphin fav, trading at 1.7 (which I have laid) runs to form. He is about 10 lb better off with Soccerjackpot compared to in a handicap, but Khor Dubai is a hold up horse and needs a pace to chase. I am not convinced he will get that here. With every possibility of an easy lead Soccerjackpot could go very well, especially since he has the rail draw in stall 10 (he is also 2-2 for the jockey). Even if he fades in the straight, this looks one for the traders as he should trade much shorter in running. I think the fav should be odds against personally, and think Soccerjackpot should be a couple of points shorter.

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets

One for tonight at Kempton in the 8.50. Soccerjackpot - currently backable at 10/1 with Stans, which does seem overly big. The whole bet falls down if the Godolphin fav, trading at 1.7 (which I have laid) runs to form. He is about 10 lb better off with Soccerjackpot compared to in a handicap, but Khor Dubai is a hold up horse and needs a pace to chase. I am not convinced he will get that here. With every possibility of an easy lead Soccerjackpot could go very well, especially since he has the rail draw in stall 10 (he is also 2-2 for the jockey). Even if he fades in the straight, this looks one for the traders as he should trade much shorter in running. I think the fav should be odds against personally, and think Soccerjackpot should be a couple of points shorter.

Well the price taken was undoubted value with does compensate a little for the unplaced result. He was sent off 7/1 and well backed throughout the day. The NR made no difference really as was 14/1 at the point of withdrawl anwyway. Unfortunately, Soccerjackpot ended up well held in fifth. The winner was well in at the weights and raced more prominently than usual. Once Durcan pressed the button it was goodnight all, he won with authority and as he should have done really given the weight he was getting. Soccerjackpot looked as if he would come on for the run, although even if he was 100 % fit he wouldn't have been a match for the winner tonight. His placed form behind Gitano Hernando (subsequent Group winner) has obviously proved a benchmark for his recent improvement, as several months ago he wasn't running to form.

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets We've got a field of 9 for the Betfair chase now I'm gonna attempt a tissue..here are my notes, tissue to follow later this afternoon when time permits.... 2.55 Haydock (Saturday) Halcon Genelardais - strong stayer that would appreciate the ground turning to heavy to turn this into as much of a stamina test as possible. Won Welsh National in 2006 and beaten by a head in the following years renewal. Is probably too high in the handicap to make his mark in handicaps now if up against progressive types so Graded events pretty much his only option. PU in the Gold Cup, has something to find with Kauto Star on official figures again. Can go well fresh and yard in form, but may find 3m sharp enough and lack the pace of some in the closing stages. Imperial Commander - winner of the Paddypower Gold Cup last year on his reappearance so proven to go well fresh. All of his wins under rules have come over 2m 5f though and may find 3m on potentially heavy ground stretches his stamina in such strong company. Was well held in the King George, pulled up at Punchestowns when last seen, which ended the season on a disappointing note after glory at the fesitval in the Ryanair. 4-7 over fences and could still have more to offer but would have been of more interest at Cheltenham. Kauto Star - won this race in 2006 and 2007 and unseated rider in last years renewal when possibly still in with a chance of winning. On official figures, has at least 17 lbs in hand on the field. Has won over futher on GS ground, and has won over shorter on soft ground, but is yet to encounter heavy ground so that is the one unknown. Winner off 11 Grade 1 chases his class cannot be questioned, but when he has looked vulnerable, it has been returning from a break. Was third on reappearance in 2003 and fell on his comeback in 2006. Madison du Berlais - has improved for the fitting on cheekpieces and has now won 3-4 in headgear, including the Hennessy, Levy board chase and Totesport Bowl at Aintree when last seen. The defeat came when sixth in the Gold Cup but seems better suited to flatter tracks and acts well at a similar sort of track to this, Newbury, where he is a multiple winner. Has tended to need the run in the past and has to overcome an absence here, but the yard have been getting their horses ready this year (some of whom have also needed a run in the past) and this will be his first reappearance wearing headgear. He is proven on slow ground and having won over further, should get this three mile trip on slower ground. Is second best to the favourite at these weights and open to possible improvement. Notre Pere - highly promising chaser that is well thought of back home in Ireland and is another strong stayer that would favour further rain. Winner of the Welsh National in 2008 he added the Punchestown Gold Cup to his collection in April. He fell on his reappearance last time out but is open to further improvement after only 13 chase starts (won 5). He may possibly find the trip on the sharp side unless conditions worsen but has been well backed in the past week or so and prefers this race to the Hennessy. The trainer seemed to want to avoid the hustle and bustle of a large field, saying that alternative engagement often leaves its mark on a horse. Perhaps he wants to get another run into his horse here and put behind him that recent fall. Nozic - Nicholls second string that has a good strike rate in this sphere but does look out of his depth in this company. The pinnacle of his acheivements to date is a Grade 3 chase, but he has something to prove off the back of recent runs and must find plenty on these terms to even place. Rambling Minster - another strong stayer that came into the reckoning for the National last term after his win here in the Blue Square Gold Cup. However, he is another one that may find three miles sharp enough for him. At 11, he lacks the potential for improvement of some and rated 149 he must find around a stone of improvement to outmuscle the principals. Seymour Weld - has won 5-11 over fences but all have been in novices races and this demands so much more. Pulled up in a valuable listed chase at uttoxeter when last seen and has fallen and been well held in other two tries in handicaps. All wins have come on faster ground, needs to find several stones of improvement to figure and confidently opposed. The Sawyer - ran a cracker at cheltenham last time out when finding an unexposed rival too strong, but that came in a handicap and this is a completely different kettle of fish. His limitations have been well exposed now and another with too much to find at these weights.

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets Betfair Chase Kauto Star Evs, Notre Pere 4/1, Madison du Berlais 11/2, Imperial Commander 12/1, Halcon Genelardais 20/1, Nozic 100/1, Rambling Minster 200/1, Seymour Weld 400/1, The Sawyer 500/1

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional Bets Brilliant write up Fin.:ok Wow, you aren't too keen on Notre Pere. When I work my 100% books, I like to add what would be a bookmakers mark up to those percentages (prices). Would you be happy laying Kauto 10/11, Notre 100/30, Madison 9/2, Imperial 17/2, Halcon 15/1, Rambling 80/1, Seymour 100/1, Sawyer 125/1. At those prices I'd like a bit of Berlington Bertie please.;)

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional Bets Ginge, RE Notre Pere, a couple of news clippings I have read have offput me on his chances. I get the impression that Dreaper just wants to get a run into him and put behind him the fall at Down Royal. The trainer said this earlier in the month

"I wouldn't be concerned about taking on Kauto Star - we need to get Notre Pere running after that blip the other day. We could wait until the Hennessy, which is always a very competitive race, but we are inclined to go for the first race that is available to him."

There was a similar sort of quote in the Racing Post where Dreaper said....

"Part of reason for going to Haydock is the fact the race will end up with say seven or eight runners, while in the Hennessy Gold Cup there'll be 22 or 23 and they'll be going flat to the boards from the word go. "The Hennessy has always been a very competitive race and has often left a mark on a horse."

I know you cannot always trust what trainers say 100 % and he may be putting up a smokescreen, but I had my doubts as to whether 3m would be ideal anyway, even on heavy ground, and with him being so short in the betting now, I'd want 4/1 before beginning to entertain the idea of backing him. I also thought that some of the hype that currently surrounds the horse has driven his price down too far. If he was coming into the race off the back of a last time out win and was open to masses of improvement then I may be tempted to buy into it but he has over a stone of improvement to bridge with Kauto (either on official figures or Timeform ratings (well those in their Jumpers to follow book, not sure if they are up to date)), and given the trainers comments, where he says pretty much he wants to get a run into him I thought Kauto had at least double the chance of winning than Notre Pere. I gave Kauto a percentage of 50 % as I think he has as much chance of winning as the rest of the field combined, and I thus started with a percentage of 25 % for Notre Pere, but then knocked it down to 20 % on reflection as I genuinely believe Madison du Berlais has been underestimated. That isn't uncommon for the horse and he often goes off too big IMO. A lot of punters may think he has only landed big prizes because the best horses in the race have underperformed but I like to think he is a much better animal in headgear. I kind of view his situation like a school kid with ADHD trying to sit an exam at school without his medication - he struggles. When he has the drugs in him his concentration improves and his performance is improved, and that is my thoughts of Madison du Berlais. Hopefully they still work their magic as they did last season? I don't think the current 6/1 available for Madison du Berlais is tremendous value and seems pretty much right, but I have backed him at 10.5 on Betfair (only for a few quid, mind) which I thought was a very good price - more than I would get from laying Notre Pere to you at 10/3!! If money continues to come in for Notre Pere I think I will back Kauto as well, providing the ground isn't heavy. If Kauto drifts to 6/4 and I back him to identical stakes that gives me odds of 5.25 for Madison du Berlais, with Kauto acting as a saver, which which probably beats the odds I would get from laying off Madison du Berlais to give myself a free bet on that selection (although admittedly I would have 8 of the field on my side if I did this). Argh, im confusing even myself now.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional Bets

We've got a field of 8 for the Betfair chase now I'm gonna attempt a tissue..here are my notes, tissue to follow later this afternoon when time permits.... Added a few of my thoughts in red Fin. 2.55 Haydock (Saturday) Halcon Genelardais - strong stayer that would appreciate the ground turning to heavy to turn this into as much of a stamina test as possible. Won Welsh National in 2006 and beaten by a head in the following years renewal. Is probably too high in the handicap to make his mark in handicaps now if up against progressive types so Graded events pretty much his only option. PU in the Gold Cup, has something to find with Kauto Star on official figures again. Can go well fresh and yard in form, but may find 3m sharp enough and lack the pace of some in the closing stages. Agree, Ran a fair race on reappearance last year when secont to Joe Lively (3m3f on soft at Cheltenham. Trouble is, if he wasn't quick enough there against handicapppers.... Imperial Commander - winner of the Paddypower Gold Cup last year on his reappearance so proven to go well fresh. All of his wins under rules have come over 2m 5f though and may find 3m on potentially heavy ground stretches his stamina in such strong company. Was well held in the King George, pulled up at Punchestowns when last seen, which ended the season on a disappointing note after glory at the fesitval in the Ryanair. 4-7 over fences and could still have more to offer but would have been of more interest at Cheltenham. Twister reckons because IC won on soft at Cheltenham (PP), he should get 3m around Haydock on very soft. Somehow doubt it myself. I do remember NTD was in very poor form at the time of his King George run, but the Punchestown run is not easy dismiss. May be taken on for the lead by Madison Du Berlais and / or The Sawyer. Hoefully Seymour Weld (another possible front runner) will keep out of the way. Kauto Star - won this race in 2006 and 2007 and unseated rider in last years renewal when possibly still in with a chance of winning. On official figures, has at least 17 lbs in hand on the field. Has won over futher on GS ground, and has won over shorter on soft ground, but is yet to encounter heavy ground so that is the one unknown. Winner off 11 Grade 1 chases his class cannot be questioned, but when he has looked vulnerable, it has been returning from a break. Was third on reappearance in 2003 and fell on his comeback in 2006. Heavy is a worry, so too is fitness. I've tried to allow for fitness in my book, but it is difficult to know for sure. Does have a stone in hand at his best. My prices do still make him value, but think I'll sit this one out (unless as a saver). Madison du Berlais - has improved for the fitting on cheekpieces and has now won 3-4 in headgear, including the Hennessy, Levy board chase and Totesport Bowl at Aintree when last seen. The defeat came when sixth in the Gold Cup but seems better suited to flatter tracks and acts well at a similar sort of track to this, Newbury, where he is a multiple winner. Has tended to need the run in the past and has to overcome an absence here, but the yard have been getting their horses ready this year (some of whom have also needed a run in the past) and this will be his first reappearance wearing headgear. He is proven on slow ground and having won over further, should get this three mile trip on slower ground. Is second best to the favourite at these weights and open to possible improvement. First time out is a big worry for me. So too is if he's taken on. Not convinced of the flat track scenario (Yet). At Cheltenham did seem to down tools when two rivals came up both sides. Being crowded might be an issue these days. Though if he goes out fast, it's unlikely IC will take him on. As that horse will need to keep something back (stamina issues). Wish I had the 10.0 Fin. Notre Pere - highly promising chaser that is well thought of back home in Ireland and is another strong stayer that would favour further rain. Winner of the Welsh National in 2008 he added the Punchestown Gold Cup to his collection in April. He fell on his reappearance last time out but is open to further improvement after only 13 chase starts (won 5). He may possibly find the trip on the sharp side unless conditions worsen but has been well backed in the past week or so and prefers this race to the Hennessy. The trainer seemed to want to avoid the hustle and bustle of a large field, saying that alternative engagement often leaves its mark on a horse. Perhaps he wants to get another run into his horse here and put behind him that recent fall. Can't see the trip being an issue Fin. Did win the Welsh National, but has improved since at 3 miles on good-soft. So 3m on soft should right up his street. Think the trainer is trying to be cautious, not over hyping his chance. Kauto remains the one with the best hope of winning after all. Nozic - Nicholls second string that has a good strike rate in this sphere but does look out of his depth in this company. The pinnacle of his acheivements to date is a Grade 3 chase, but he has something to prove off the back of recent runs and must find plenty on these terms to even place. Non-runner. Rambling Minster - another strong stayer that came into the reckoning for the National last term after his win here in the Blue Square Gold Cup. However, he is another one that may find three miles sharp enough for him. At 11, he lacks the potential for improvement of some and rated 149 he must find around a stone of improvement to outmuscle the principals. I did say I thought this might be value at 66/1, have to go back on that (sorry). Forgot he is 11 going on 12. And the improvement shown last term was when tackling further than 3m. Seymour Weld - has won 5-11 over fences but all have been in novices races and this demands so much more. Pulled up in a valuable listed chase at uttoxeter when last seen and has fallen and been well held in other two tries in handicaps. All wins have come on faster ground, needs to find several stones of improvement to figure and confidently opposed. Ground, jumping, company all major worries. The Sawyer - ran a cracker at cheltenham last time out when finding an unexposed rival too strong, but that came in a handicap and this is a completely different kettle of fish. His limitations have been well exposed now and another with too much to find at these weights.

One of my favourite horses in training, real trier. However, not in this grade. Don't know either whether he'll be allowed to bowl along in front as normal. Other front runners in the field and may be ridden like many rank outsiders. kept out of the way. Stays 3m and acts on heavy, but does he stay 3m on heavy?