Your Professional Bets

[Gingertipster]

Thought I would start a thread where any PL member can put a tip in that they believe is a “professional bet”. Realise there are many different definitions of what a professional bet is; but in this case: You must believe his chance is much better (not just slightly over-priced) than the odds available imply. A price likely to crash. Not a thread each member should contribute to every day or even every week, just when he's seen outstanding value. So if you consider a horse to be a true 4/7 63.6% chance and is available at 4/5 52.4% it's a professional bet. Likewise one believed to be a 3/1 25% chance available at 9/2 18.2%; a 10/1 9% chance at 16/1 5.9%, 20/1 4.8% at 40/1 2.4% or 50/1 2% at 200/1 0.5% and so on. The bigger the price the less (percentage) difference is needed to be a professional bet. To help PL members who are not accustomed to the table of odds and chances, I here is an explanation that even a novice punter should understand. To make it easier for them to spot a “professional bet”. “Every punter knows for each £ he / she stakes on a 3/1 winner, he gets £4 returned (winning £3 plus £1 stake back). For every 100 bets of level stakes at 3/1 a punter must win 25 to break even (25 X 4 = 100). Staking 100 points and getting 100 back. If he wins more than 25 he will make a profit, less than 25 will result in a loss. Therefore, 25% = true odds of 3/1. So a punter should only back a 3/1 shot if he believes it has a better than 25% chance of winning. Gamblers want to know “who's going to win”? But they should not necessarily back the horse with “the best chance of winning”. The important question is “in your opinion, who is “VALUE to win”. Bookmakers stay in business by betting to an over-round figure. In a four horse race with a competitive market he may offer: A 11/8 (42.1%), B 2/1 (33.3%), C 100/30 (23.1%), D 11/1 (8.3%). 42.1 + 33.3 + 23.1 + 8.3 = 106.8% Working to 106.8% for an over-round of 6.8%. Yet betting is all about opinions, bookmakers prices might not be right. If after studying form of the race above a punter believes: A has a 40% 6/4 chance of winning. B 30% almost 9/4 C 20% 4/1 D 10% 9/1 All four adding up to 100%. Comparing the punters prices to bookmakers; the only horse at a better price (value) with bookmakers is D at 11/1. D is the only possible bet, despite in the punters own opinion having the worst chance of winning. Quarter of A's chance, a third of B's and half of C. With a 10% strike rate at 11/1 showing a profit. Where as a 40% strike rate at 11/8, 30% at 2/1 and 20% at 100/30 all result in a loss. (Though in our Professional Bets thread D would not constitute a bet as the value is only a marginal 1.7%. 10% - 8.3% = 1.7%). Even if a punter does not want to work out a race to 100%, knowing the table, seeing each price as a percentage and vice versa helps to find value. To calculate the percentage each price is worth, add a point and divide by 100. So 3/1 = 3 + 1 = 4, 100 '/, 4 = 25%. 100/30 = 3.33/1 + 1 = 4.33, 100 '/, 4.33 = 23.1% And so on”. For odds in decimals (what you see on betfair or tote) there is no need to add the 1, just divide 100 by the figure. Here are the prices and their percentages. Evens 50, 21/20 48.8, 11/10 47.6, 6/5 45.5, 5/4 44.4, 11/8 42.1, 6/4 40, 13/8 38.1, 7/4 36.4, 15/8 34.8, 2/1 33.3, 85/40 32, 9/4 30.8, 5/2 28.6, 11/4 26.7, 3/1 25, 100/30 23.1, 7/2 22.2, 4/1 20, 9/2 18.2, 5/1 16.7, 11/2 15.4, 6/1 14.3, 13/2 13.3, 7/1 12.5, 15/2 11.7, 8/1 11.1, 17/2 10.5, 9/1 10, 10/1 9.1, 11/1 8.3, 12/1 7.7, 13/1 7.1, 14/1 6.7, 15/1 6.2, 16/1 5.9, 18/1 5.3, 20/1 4.8, 22/1 4.3, 25/1 3.8, 28/1 3.4, 33/1 3, 40/1 2.4, 50/1 2, 66/1 1.5, 80/1 1.2, 100/1 1, 132/1 0.75, 150/1 0.66, 200/1 0.5, 250/1 0.4, 300/1 0.33, 400/1 0.25, 500/1 0.2, 800/1 0.125, 1000/1 0.1, 2000/1 0.05 For an Evens shot to be a good bet you must believe it to have a better than 50% chance of winning, 21/20 48.8%, 11/10 47.6% and so on (see above). Though a margin for error should be factored in. Few gamblers are 100% accurate, so it may be best not to back what you consider a true 4/1 shot at 9/2 but to do so at 5/1 or more. For the benefit of this thread it should be considerably more. For odds-on percentages, subtract the odds-against equivalent from 100. So for 4/6, 6/4 = 40% , 100 – 40 = 60, therefore 4/6 = 60% Mark

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional bets I've got a bet to chip in here to try kick things off... 5.50 Kempton - King Olav - 20/1 currently avail with Hills, trading at 17.5 on the exchanges. I'd take any price greater than 10/1 for this one. Reason for the discrepancy? I would like to think too much emphasis has been placed on his turf form but if you look at his all-weather form over 10f then he can't be a 20/1 chance...he is 2/2. I think Uncle Fred, Muftarres and Mister New York are all too short. Ordoney should be fav here IMO but I am worried slightly that he may be help up. I want one up with the pace.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets

I've got a bet to chip in here to try kick things off... 5.50 Kempton - King Olav - 20/1 currently avail with Hills, trading at 17.5 on the exchanges. I'd take any price greater than 10/1 for this one. Reason for the discrepancy? I would like to think too much emphasis has been placed on his turf form but if you look at his all-weather form over 10f then he can't be a 20/1 chance...he is 2/2. I think Uncle Fred, Muftarres and Mister New York are all too short. Ordoney should be fav here IMO but I am worried slightly that he may be help up. I want one up with the pace.

Nice to see someone starting the thread proper Fintron. Good luck with King Olav. Now down to 16/1, 14/1 in most places. Mark

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional bets RE the first Bet, King Olav was sent off 16/1, finished a 3/4 length second. Another one for tonight 7.20 Kempton Foxtrot Alpha - sliding back down the weights on the basis of a poor run on turf but AW form offers hope and 4 lbs lower than when placed here in August and when shaped as if todays trip of a mile would suit. Well drawn in stall 11, hopefully Luke Morris keeps him in contention. 25/1 avail with Betfred, would take anything down to 14/1 ish EW.

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional bets

RE the first Bet, King Olav was sent off 16/1, finished a 3/4 length second. Another one for tonight 7.20 Kempton Foxtrot Alpha - sliding back down the weights on the basis of a poor run on turf but AW form offers hope and 4 lbs lower than when placed here in August and when shaped as if todays trip of a mile would suit. Well drawn in stall 11, hopefully Luke Morris keeps him in contention. 25/1 avail with Betfred, would take anything down to 14/1 ish EW.

Looked to have a chance of a place 2f out but ultimately was too one paced to get himself into the frame. No excuses really as was put in the race but stood no chance of winning, Ensnare bolted up for Ian Williams.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets

I've got a bet to chip in here to try kick things off... 5.50 Kempton - King Olav - 20/1 currently avail with Hills, trading at 17.5 on the exchanges. I'd take any price greater than 10/1 for this one. Reason for the discrepancy? I would like to think too much emphasis has been placed on his turf form but if you look at his all-weather form over 10f then he can't be a 20/1 chance...he is 2/2. I think Uncle Fred, Muftarres and Mister New York are all too short. Ordoney should be fav here IMO but I am worried slightly that he may be help up. I want one up with the pace.

That's a very good start Fintron, if we call it a 20/1 each way second, from two bets.:ok

[bowles10]

Re: Your Professional bets wasn't going to get involved but. 2.15 Wincanton Celestial Halo 45% 6/4 Blue Bajan 15% 11/2 Whiteoak 14% 6/1 Tasheba 10% 9/1 Mamlook 7.5% 12/1 Katies tuitor 8% 11/1 Marodima 0.5% 200/1 The only horse that beats my price at the moment is Celestial Halo which is available at 2/1 Paddy Power

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional bets I think Beat The Boys is overpriced in the Badger Ales Trophy tomorrow. Paddypower are offering 11/1 but he is only 8/1 with Bet 365 and that I more what I was expecting. I think he is priced up as long as 11/1 for a couple of reasons, probably due to the fact he made all to score last time out and with Carruthers in opposition here it may be felt he will get taken on for the lead. However, he does not necessarily have to lead to win. Secondly, jumping errors have been his downfall in the past and he failed to complete several high profile races last season. Nevertheless, he jumped much better when winning at Chepstow when last and Twiston-Davies may have sharpened up his jumping at home in the meantime. He has been put up almost a stone for that last win but has raced off marks this high before and if can now jump more reliably, could fulfill the expectation that came his way when on 140 previously. Would back this down to 8/1, 11/1 currently avail with paddy.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Your Professional bets 3.25 Wincanton - Bowleaze 28/1 Sky, 20/1 and 16/1 everywhere else. Certainly without making a tissue it is blindly obvious that 28/1 is overpriced. Horse has record 2,1 .. 1,2 in 06 and 07. And a win in November 08. Finished 2nd lto and clearly the ability is still there. Runs well this time of the year after his summer breaks.The yard is in great form. Most of the horses in the race have this as a prep for other things later in the month. This for me is a value bet without making a tissue or whatsoever. Hope it makes sense :ok

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets Well done Bowles.:clap Francome said before the race he looked plenty fit enough and Ruby pressed on at the right point. Got one myself now. Ante-post. Arkle Trophy. Crack Away Jack 8/1 with WH, FD, PP. I would think he has around an 18% true 9/2 or 17% 5/1 chance right now. If he was trained by Nicholls or Henderson the price would be half that. Has grade 1 Hurdles form and best performances at the Cheltenham Festival. Also like Somersby for this, but will keep just the one bet for now. The "fav" Sizing Europe has looked impressive so far, but seemed last season that he had a physical or mental problem. Not finding much under pressure. Worth opposing. Tataniano had an encouraging first start but is desperately short for what he's done. Priced up on reputation.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Your Professional bets

3.25 Wincanton - Bowleaze 28/1 Sky, 20/1 and 16/1 everywhere else. Certainly without making a tissue it is blindly obvious that 28/1 is overpriced. Horse has record 2,1 .. 1,2 in 06 and 07. And a win in November 08. Finished 2nd lto and clearly the ability is still there. Runs well this time of the year after his summer breaks.The yard is in great form. Most of the horses in the race have this as a prep for other things later in the month. This for me is a value bet without making a tissue or whatsoever. Hope it makes sense :ok

SP 18/1 .. placed :ok

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets Do think Fleeting Spirit is very good value at 10/1 each way. Is normally held up so a 9 draw should not be too much trouble.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets Rip Van Winkle looks an outstanding bet on USA odds. Around 6/1 is at least double if not treble correct odds. Will probably shorten by post time. But WOW, time to raid the piggy bank?

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional bets 3.10 Limerick Paddy Pub ranks as a massive danger but I feel it too short to touch at 6/4 so will side with the unexposed Away We Go. He is a course winner over hurdles, handles slow ground, and was off the mark on his chase debut when last seen. 10/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt EW.

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional bets

3.10 Limerick Paddy Pub ranks as a massive danger but I feel it too short to touch at 6/4 so will side with the unexposed Away We Go. He is a course winner over hurdles, handles slow ground, and was off the mark on his chase debut when last seen. 10/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt EW.

Drifted out to 12/1 but travelled really well and looks a winner in waiting in handicap company, finishing second. Was simply unlucky to bump into a well handicapped rival that always looked as though he would win. Paddy Pub was unlucky to bump into Treacle when running at Limerick last time but gained compensation by winning today after his last engagement at Cork was abandoned due to waterlogging and I think the same pattern will emerge with Away We Go here, he is very unexposed in chaser and has shot straight to the top of my notebook after today. As for tomorrow I have Justcallmehandsome down as a good bet at 16/1 in thr 4.40 at Wolverhampton. He has been messed around over different trips and with a plethora of jockeys but he is back over his ideal course and distance tomorrow as he is a six time winner over the extended mile at Wolverhampton. He has slipped 6 lbs below his last winning mark and should get the race run just as he wants, so the 16/1 on offer tonight looks too big. I would back this at any price down to 10/1 if I am being honest, so either I am majorly overrating him or have found an ideal bet for this thread.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Your Professional bets

Also like Somersby for this' date=' but will keep just the one bet for now.[/quote'] What about Medermit? He was unlucky not to win the Supreme. Alan King is saying in every interview I watch that he is dying to run him over fences and if Somersby is 16/1 on Betfair and Medermit is 26/1 isn't the latter the value? I know Somersby won already over the bigger obstacles and jumped well, but he beat nothing. Do you price your novice chasers after you see them jump a fence or it's not necessary? Because on bare hurdling form Medermit will beat Somersby anyday and imo there's a big probability he'll do it over fences too. We all saw what heppened to Calgary Bay. His price for the Arkle was an absolute joke last year just because he was trained by this particular trainer and it was the Arkle. With Somersby it's a bit different, because 2m is his ideal trip and the situation is not entirely like Calgary Bay, who looked like a true 3 miler.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets

Another value ante-post bet. World Hurdle Big Buck's @ 9/4 (sportingbet) 2.3/1 betfair. Biggest potential rival Punchestowns goes over fences and Kasbah Bliss unlikely to race over obstacles; Mighty Man isn't getting any younger and injury prone. The latter comment also applicable to Irish Fivefourthree and Inglis Drever is sadly no longer with us. Top novice hurdlers Mikael d'Hagunet, Pandorama, Pride Of Dulcote, Bensalem, and Diamond Harry all go chasing this season. Zaynar (apparently) more likely to stay at two miles (expect a change there). Seems as though Big Buck's hasn't got much to beat this season in staying hurdles. Possible dangers are the Alan King and Emma Lavelle trained ex-novices Karabak and Bouggler. Both need to make vast improvement to beat a top form Big Buck's. Nicholls horse never wins by far, idles badly at times. There is always a chance one or two novice chasers coming back to hurdles. But as long as that does not turn in to a temperament problem, will be very difficult to beat. Must have a much better than 31% chance of following up his 2009 win in the Stayers (World) Hurdle.

[James Bondage]

Re: Your Professional bets I'm interested what you think Big Buck's true chance of winning is currently? What price do you think he will be if lining up on the day? How likely would it be for a random horse to pick up an injury between now and four months time? 9/4 seems to be a bookie price with all the water that can pass under the bridge by the time the tape goes up.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets James, I would estimate that Big Bucks has roughly a 40% 6/4 or 42% 11/8 chance right now; including chance of injury. I would not exactly call it a random chance. In his time with Nicholls he is yet to pick up any injury (to keep him out for long), therefore he is quite a sound horse. Though of course it is always possible. His price will depend on whether any of the "novice chasers" go back to hurdling (particularly Punchestowns), or a re-think from Kasbah Bliss's connections. However, I think it's likely Big Buck's will start odds-on or near to it. Between 5/4 and 4/5. What percentage chance would you think he has at this point in time James? I can only think of possibly one better Staying hurdler (Baracouda) in the last 20 years. So if he runs to form, the others have to improve out of all recognition to win. So I don't think it's a bookies price.

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional bets 7.50 Kempton tonight, Arteus is as big as 11/1 with skybet and tote, yet is as short as 7/1 with Stan James. Even allowing for the fact the NR was a 5/1 chance, that is a maximum deduction of 15p in the £1, effectively making him 9.35/1 - and that looks value even if a R4 is applied. Anyway, the horse is open to more improvement on the all-weather and responded to headgear previously. From a good draw I was expecting this to be around a 6/1 chance here....I think Tourist deserves to be the fav but that the others prominent in the betting have been overestimated.

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional bets

7.50 Kempton tonight, Arteus is as big as 11/1 with skybet and tote, yet is as short as 7/1 with Stan James. Even allowing for the fact the NR was a 5/1 chance, that is a maximum deduction of 15p in the £1, effectively making him 9.35/1 - and that looks value even if a R4 is applied. Anyway, the horse is open to more improvement on the all-weather and responded to headgear previously. From a good draw I was expecting this to be around a 6/1 chance here....I think Tourist deserves to be the fav but that the others prominent in the betting have been overestimated.

Won at an SP of 8/1, the kind souls at Skybet only deducted 10p in the £1 on the 11/1 taken too which was a nice bonus, so was effectively backed just under 10/1 :)

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets Was going to hang on for this, but with the trainer's good words about his chance; thought better put it up now. PADDY POWER GOLD CUP Hold Em @ 39/1 (Betfair) 33/1 (elsewhere) Has been running well but failing to get home over 3 miles. Back in trip now could surprise a few if putting in a good round of jumping.

[billy the punter]

Re: Your Professional bets

Was going to hang on for this, but with the trainer's good words about his chance; thought better put it up now. PADDY POWER GOLD CUP Hold Em @ 39/1 (Betfair) 33/1 (elsewhere) Has been running well but failing to get home over 3 miles. Back in trip now could surprise a few if putting in a good round of jumping.

That's the thing with this horse. I've backed him in a couple of big handicaps already and he always seems to put that one bad jump in. I would worry about his jumping as even on soft ground they are likely to go a clip in this. I do think there is a decent race in him, although have the suspicion his success may come in smaller fields. Is the ground ok for him?

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets Hold Em won on heavy on his hurdles debut and good-soft that year too. Though it's true he's improved since on a sound surface. Another one, even better value. PADDY POWER GOLD CUP Bible Lord @ 28/1 (betfair) Has not got the 10 lb penalty of Mark Grant on board this year and improved his jumping on reappearance. May yet win the good race connections believe he's capable of. He likes soft ground. I'd say he was around a true 10/1 or 12/1 shot.

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional bets There is a decent looking handicap chase tomorrow in the 1.55. The RP tissue isn't up yet and the market hasn't formed on Betfair, so will be interested to see if this is anywhere near... Don't Push It 5/1, Majimar 13/2, Russian Trigger 7/1, Hello Bud 15/2, Lacdoudal 10/1, Zacharova 12/1, Miko du Beauchene 14/1, Chelsea Harbour 16/1, Best Actor 18/1, Galant Nuit 20/1, Regal Heights 25/1, Baron Windrush 40/1

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets

1:55 Cheltenham Scottish National winner Hello Bud looks very well priced. Ran a good race first time up at just 3 miles on good ground. Today's 3m3f on a stiff course on very soft should play to his strengths. I also like Galant Nuit who finished well under his amateur 7lb claimer last time. But as he comes from a yard yet to hit top form, has just a half bet. Have saved on Lacdoudal too. 7/1 (WH) Hello Bud 7.4/1 (betfair) Galant Nuit 17/1 (betfair) Lacdoudal

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional bets It's hard to keep track of the bets in here as arguments outnumer bets but from what I can see the thread has identified the following bets to date.. Fintron - King Olav 20/1 - Placed Fintron - Foxtrot Alpha 25/1 - unp Bowles - Celestial Halo - 11/4 - Won Fintron - Beat The Boys 11/1 unp Mileni - Bowleaze 28/1 - Placed Fintron - Justcallmehandsome - unp Ginge - Fleeting Spirit 10/1 unp Ginge - Rip Van Winkle 6/1 - unp Fintron - Away We Go 10/1 - Placed Fintron - Aretus 11/1 (-10p R4) - Won So anyone backing those to 1 pt win or 0.5 pt EW stakes would be in profit nicely. 20/1, 28/1, 12/1 (bog) shots placed and winners at 9.9/1 and 11/4 :ok

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets

Was going to hang on for this, but with the trainer's good words about his chance; thought better put it up now. PADDY POWER GOLD CUP Hold Em @ 39/1 (Betfair) 33/1 (elsewhere) Has been running well but failing to get home over 3 miles. Back in trip now could surprise a few if putting in a good round of jumping.

Backed in to 14/1 3rd

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets

1:55 Cheltenham Scottish National winner Hello Bud looks very well priced. Ran a good race first time up at just 3 miles on good ground. Today's 3m3f on a stiff course on very soft should play to his strengths. I also like Galant Nuit who finished well under his amateur 7lb claimer last time. But as he comes from a yard yet to hit top form, has just a half bet. Have saved on Lacdoudal too. 7/1 (WH) Hello Bud 7.4/1 (betfair) Galant Nuit 17/1 (betfair) Lacdoudal

Galant Nuit backed in to 9/2 winner!:nana Hello bud 3rd

[BillyHills]

Your Professional Bets All advised bets moved in here:ok