Your Opinions Please

[billy the punter]

I sorely need closure on this hand so I would really appreciate your thoughts, what you would do and why, ie what you put the other player on. Live tournament Runners : 70 odd Buy-in : £200+20 Freezeout Starting stack : 10,000 Blinds : 25 minute We're coming to the end of level 2, blinds now 50/100. You're in the BB with T4 offsuit and have just shy of 11,000. Pre-flop action: Fold Fold Uber-fish raises to 300 Caller Caller Button Calls SB Calls You call with T4 in BB for another 200. --- Flop comes Th 8h 4c SB checks You bet 1000 Original raiser folds Caller Caller Button folds SB folds (now three runners) --- Turn comes Th 8h 4c Kh You check Check Bet 1800 You call 1800 other chap passes --- River comes Th 8h 4c Kh 5d You check He moves all-in for 5,000. This is the 4th hand he has played since the tournament began (over 40 mins ago). :\ So, what do you do and why?

[deadlydaveLDN]

Re: Your Opinions Please Fold pre-flop. You can say it's only 200 to call into a pot of 1000, but T4 is only every a hand that's going to get you into trouble (unless you're Blair Hinkle and you flop a full house and turn quads as he did Heads Up for a Bracelet, all in pre flop vs James Akenhead's AK) Fold turn. Fold river. Wouldn't be massively surprised if he flopped a set. Plus he could have better 2-pair combos, a flush or a straight. Of course there's hands you beat in his range too, but there's not many.

[deadlydaveLDN]

Re: Your Opinions Please Plus you have a decent stack if you fold anyway, and not much if you call and lose.

[Nade]

Re: Your Opinions Please So they've bet 1800 into 4800 on the turn? That's a strange bet size. My first thought was to either bet/fold turn or bet/fold river but pot to stack sizes make things awkward whatever happens. He could be betting small on the turn to try and induce a c/r AI or he could be betting small on turn to bluff the river with a bigger more intimidating looking shove on river after cheaply repping a flush on turn. The decision is really close for me the points i keep thinking about are:

• He's only played 4 hands in 40mins
• Would he play a made flush like this? Considering virtually any solid bet he makes on turn leaves him with less than pot sized bet left on river so his smaller bet size is significant i can't make up my mind which way.
• I definitely think they can play 9J/QJ like this which missed but also 76 which got there. I think it's more likely they play a semi-bluffing draw like this than a big made hand.

In the end i'd timebank for ages and just settle on 4 hands in 40mins and puke fold FWIW i agree with Dave even though the price is vgood to see a flop the only time you're going to be happy continuing post flop with T4o is if you flop two pair or better which is like less than 5% of the time.

[ELCAKER]

Re: Your Opinions Please Billy, First of all glad you didnt get caught up in the Upton Park debacle! AS Danny Dyer might say,"It looked right pretty naughty!" Onto more important matters, namely this hand. For what it is worth here's my opinion. Working backwards I think you have to fold. PRedominantly because you dont have enough info on him. 4 hands in 40 mins suggests he's tight - and there are plenty of hands out there that beat yours. * I dont think he's playing 76, unless it is 7h6h. * Tight players, dont tend to put their tourney at stake on a total bluff, and as he has gone all-in you have to give him credit for a very strong hand. * He knows you must be strong as you have showed strength at every street after the flop, bet 1k, then calling 1.8k. What might he be holding? Well AhXh isn't out of the equation for me. Low rag aces arent neccessarily a hand you want to play too strongly pre-flop in early levels of a tourney. And as Nade suggests maybe QhJh is a possibility. He calls to see a flop and he hits as well as he can hope....Definitely worth calling 1k bet. Turn comes GIN...nut flush..Check Check - then as NAde says he bets 1.8 into 4.8. This to my mind is actually clever bet sizing as if you have anything bigger than 1 pair you'll definitely be calling and he can then try and get it all on the river. When you call he knows you must be pretty strong. The board doesnt pair, you check the river, he decides to push all in. If you make a disciplined fold then he collects a pot worth 8.6k, if you call it is 18.k and barring a miracle you've done a bottle!! That's my reading of it, but if he's a total donkey then maybe he just totally overplayed kq!!

[Dodger]

Re: Your Opinions Please

Flop comes Th 8h 4c SB checks You bet 1000 Original raiser folds Caller Caller Button folds SB folds (now three runners)

At this stage you get two callers, so however you want to reduce their possible ranges you must surely be putting one at least on the flush draw. Trip 8s is a nightmare, overpair would be nice, straight draw also helps, T with JQKA also possible...but the flush draw looks the most dangerous and, as you have such little player information, at least as likely as anything else. I would have tended towards a check/raise on the flop, either taking it down there and then or isolating a single opponent hopefully on a draw. You opted to bet and got two callers. The turn puts the scary heart on the board and the bet of 1800 just throws up more questions than answers...has he hit the flush and wants a bit of action? or is at a bet to take the pot as he's missed. He could have AhTx and still be looking for another heart...but I feel he has likely already hit (:unsure) and would have folded here. The river doesn't complete anything that you could realistically put him on...his bet looks like he wants you off the pot. Your call on the turn implies you either think he does not have a flush or that you can shove him off a smallish flush on the river. His river bet leaves you only with the one question...has he hit his flush?? (or holds KT) My answer...I don't know! ------------------------------ I am being swayed here by the large buy-in, assuming there are clues in every move that's made. However, if this were my local pub £5 game...I would definitely be calling here as everybody plays like lunatics at the best of times and the 2 pair does beat just about everything bar the flush. ----------------------------- But at this level I think I would be folding, but I wouldn't be happy if he didn't show and left my brain in turmoil.

[Hooloovoo]

Re: Your Opinions Please

Pre-flop action: Fold Fold Uber-fish raises to 300 Caller Caller Button Calls SB Calls You call with T4 in BB for another 200. Pot odds 1:8 makes this a mandatory call even with the worst of rags. :ok --- Flop comes Th 8h 4c SB checks You bet 1000 Original raiser folds Caller Caller Button folds SB folds (now three runners) Considering the pot size (1800) and the number of opponents, this is a reasonable bet size to get some information :ok Turn comes Th 8h 4c Kh You check Check Bet 1800 You call 1800 other chap passes I would have gone for the min-raise here, i get the feeling he has nuts or air. If you're getting called, check/fold river. If your'e getting raised, fold. Maybe this is too aggro for some people but checking and calling doesn't answer any questions. You're essentially giving away the initiative in the hand by calling here imo. You know that when you're calling this bet, you will face another bet on the river, and that is probably an all-in bet. Your possibilities to improve are almost nil with 4 outs, so your'e really hoping he's bluffing, and it's cheaper to find out on turn. River comes Th 8h 4c Kh 5d You check He moves all-in for 5,000. This is the 4th hand he has played since the tournament began (over 40 mins ago). 4 hands in 40 minutes in a LIVE tournament, at a full table, is not as tight as some of the previous posters suggested. It would have been good to know how many hands you have been dealt, but this is (of course) not easy to answer. So, what do you do and why? As described, i would have chosen a different line on turn, but IF i was in this situation, i would fold. Too many possible hands in his range beats yours imo.

The fish has spoken :)

[ELCAKER]

Re: Your Opinions Please Hooloovoo, I like your point about min re-raising the turn, I think there is alot to be said for this move however it is tricky to do if you think the guy has the nuts. I think folding is still the only option in this spot. Also 4 hands in 40 mins is pretty tight especially at this early stage. You are highly likely to be calling small bets into your sb and bb. The blinds will definitely have gone through you at least 3 times in 40 mins. In fairness if it is 4 hands to the river then I agree that isnt tight, however to see a flop 4 times in 40 minutes is tight.

[Hooloovoo]

Re: Your Opinions Please Thanks for the comments elcaker. Some clarifications below:

I like your point about min re-raising the turn' date=' I think there is alot to be said for this move however it is tricky to do [b']if you think the guy has the nuts.

If i think/believe/am convinced he has the nuts, i probably wouldn't do this. This move is designed to clear up a murky situation where you feel either option (nuts/air) is equally likely. :ok

Also 4 hands in 40 mins is pretty tight especially at this early stage. You are highly likely to be calling small bets into your sb and bb. The blinds will definitely have gone through you at least 3 times in 40 mins. In fairness if it is 4 hands to the river then I agree that isnt tight, however to see a flop 4 times in 40 minutes is tight.

Well technically you play a hand if you limp-see a flop, but i read 4 hands as if he played them post-flop :)

[glceud]

Re: Your Opinions Please Got to say I don't think 4 hands in 40 mins is that tight, probably at least 25% of hands. I would also have called preflop but it has to be a leak in my play. On the flop I would have bet more, 1500-1600. Would have check folded the turn as his bet size is screaming value bet please call. Definitely fold the river if I had gone that far.

[Hooloovoo]

Re: Your Opinions Please

Would have check folded the turn as his bet size is screaming value bet please call.

Yes it does, and here it is crucial to know something about your opponent. Is he the kind of player who knows that it's screaming value bet? In that case he could be representing. Does he know what kind of player YOU are? Then he knows that you knows that he could be representing, and it's suddenly more likely he do have a hand

[billy the punter]

Re: Your Opinions Please

Yes it does, and here it is crucial to know something about your opponent. Is he the kind of player who knows that it's screaming value bet? In that case he could be representing. Does he know what kind of player YOU are? Then he knows that you knows that he could be representing, and it's suddenly more likely he do have a hand

Zero history between the players prior to this game, if that makes any differnce. Some great responses so far - thank you. I will do a proper reply (with what happened) but I'm out today so wil do so asap. In the meantime please continue. :ok

[Dodger]

Re: Your Opinions Please {please bear with me on this one, wandering off this particular hand for a moment} Just how complex can you allow your thinking to go? Starting from the premise that you know he could be representing. ah...but what if he knows that you know? but...maybe you know that he knows that you know...but bugger me 'cos if he knows that you know that he knows that you know that he can represent... Just how deep can you go here before your brain melts? However, having thought about it for a while, I am now pretty certain that the top pros must go a fair way further down this road than most of us do. It's rather analagous to Chess I think...a reasonable player may sometimes be able to think three or four moves ahead, but a grand master will be thinking right through to the end game. What I am trying to get across is that this sort of deep thinking may actually be very important in getting those fractional advantages that are so important in this game. A prime example from my own poker notes...one of my favourite notes is ''He thinks I'm a donkey''. That can be very useful in itself as such a player will often pay off my better hands. However how long will it take for that player to realise that I know that he thinks I'm a donkey...and then further how long before I spot that he now knows. I hope I am getting my point across without sending everybody to sleep...but I now realise that I am often not thinking about situations quite deeply enough. Bloody hell...it's a complicated game!

[Hooloovoo]

Re: Your Opinions Please Yeah it is complicated Dodger, but most of the time your opponent isn't thinking that deep so 1 level or 2 might be enough, if you get me

[Dodger]

Re: Your Opinions Please I agree...at least at the level I play. Just starting to reckon that to advance to higher levels you have to be always thinking at deeper levels and, for me at least, I find that a daunting prospect. So...at the next PL game, when my time keeps ticking down...beware...I'm trying to get inside your head!

[ELCAKER]

Re: Your Opinions Please Deep thinking is definitely something that sets apart the very best players. Obviously this will tend to apply to the so called "pros" and I dont mean that to be disparaging in anyway. However much of the "deep thinking" does come from the experience of playing against one another. One of the first hands I saw on tv that made me just realise how awesome Ivey is came from his heads up battle with Paul Jackson to win the Monte Carlo Millions back in around 2005. Jackson, who was outchipped, re-raises Ivey's bet from the sb....Ivey re-raises back.....JAckson re-raises leaving behind not very much...Ivey moves in with absolute air, Jackson has to fold. At the time watching it I just couldnt believe what i was seeing. Yet it transpires afterwards that Ivey's whole decision making throughout the hand was based on the fact that Jackson always checked his monsters. So as soon as Paul re-raised Ivey's initial bet, Ivey knew there was a chance he was making a move. When the Englishman continued to bet, Phil just saw straight through it, and ultimately his hunch proved correct. There have to be so many factors to making "plays", which arent just a case of betting with nothing. (Moneymaker's all in re-raise against Sam Farha springs to mind in 2003 - a ballsy play but not based on any great deduction). To really make it count you have to know what your oppo has. Daniel Negreanu once got Freddie Deeb off AK on a king high board. Which had paired on the river, in a heads up battle! Without going into the intricasies of the hand, (I'll dig it out if anyone really wants to know) Negreanu deduced what Deeb had and put out a crying bet on the river which screamed of "call me". If he had gone all-in, Deeb may well have called and won the hand and tourney, but thanks to brilliant bet-sizing Deeb thought Daniel must have either trips or a house and folded. Commentating, Howard LEderer described it as the best bluff he had ever seen, and considering he doesnt have alot of time for NEgreanu it was high praise indeed. Which leads back to the hand in question - if the villain was making a play then whatever Billy suspects he cant call, certainly not without knowledge of what the guys range might be, or whether he knows he often shoves on the river when he has missed etc etc. I am surprised that Billy actually needs closure on this hand as he more than most understands that survival is key in tournaments. Gambling with two pair on a board that has potentially made a flush is not good poker in my opinion.

[deadlydaveLDN]

Re: Your Opinions Please

One of the first hands I saw on tv that made me just realise how awesome Ivey is came from his heads up battle with Paul Jackson to win the Monte Carlo Millions back in around 2005. Jackson, who was outchipped, re-raises Ivey's bet from the sb....Ivey re-raises back.....JAckson re-raises leaving behind not very much...Ivey moves in with absolute air, Jackson has to fold. At the time watching it I just couldnt believe what i was seeing. Yet it transpires afterwards that Ivey's whole decision making throughout the hand was based on the fact that Jackson always checked his monsters. So as soon as Paul re-raised Ivey's initial bet, Ivey knew there was a chance he was making a move. When the Englishman continued to bet, Phil just saw straight through it, and ultimately his hunch proved correct.

Probably some deal making during the break :ok

[ubermonkey1]

Re: Your Opinions Please

I agree...at least at the level I play. Just starting to reckon that to advance to higher levels you have to be always thinking at deeper levels and, for me at least, I find that a daunting prospect.

you ever read the art of war by sun tzu dodger? although its a military strategy book a lot of the references run true in poker. try to test your enemy without risking a large number of troops(chips;)) use that information to find their weakness. formulate a plan to destroy as much of the enemy as possible. if possible never go to war without a significant advantage. of course you need a lot of hands of experiance to be able to pick up that sort of info off a decent player, but i dont think i takes a genius :tongue2 billys hand is a tricky one. i would have called pre . you might only hit a good flop 5% of the time but if you do you might well get paid off,its a pretty well disguised hand:ok flop same as you i think,a good flop but always a little scary with a bad 2 pair ,so try to protect. i might have put in a little bit larger bet :unsuremaybe pot sized. turn. not a good card,i think i would have folded here. a bet and someone to play still and with a hand unlikely to improve.the button may be ahead already and its hard to raise to protect even if he's not:\ river just got a little worse as he could have had 67 (although unlikely)difficult decision ,you could be ahead but as this guys pretty tight i'd guess not.

[Nade]

Re: Your Opinions Please I was watching a DC video yesterday by Krantz playing a mid stakes 6max cash game and there was a hand where in a 4bet pot his opponent bet really small on the flop ( 55$ into a 190$ pot) so they could have a pot sized shove on turn. Seeing it in real time like that it was obvious the guy had a huge hand (in this case over pair KK) Krantz had AQ, hit Q on turn and stacked off. He said it's important to note that they must be a good player to pay attention to how bet sizes can be used on later streets. As i said in the first post i was confused about his bet size on turn to pot shove river, well now having heard Krantz in this video re. bet sizing it weights my decision towards villain being a good solid tight player and not just any random monkey who could shove with random 2 pair on river. So they either have total air or the flush IMO, going on they're probably good solid tight player it should be a fold.