chris34 Posted August 9, 2009 Share Posted August 9, 2009 3.45 Southwell Andean margin seems to be enjoying a progressive seasn having won off a mark of 57 and has since put a neat string of good placings together and now has to run off a mark of 75 today but doesnt look to harshly treated with all this progression, and hasnt been round southwell since that win so maybe back to winning venue will bring the winning spree back 0.5pt e.w andean margin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulw Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day 10th Aug 3.45 Southwell Swiss Art Is a bit of a track specialist winning a 5th 8f handicap last month yard are in excellent form and a good jockey in silvestre de sousa on bord who has had a few winners lately a solid E/W bet in my opinion.:hope:hope 0.5pt E/W Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day 10th Aug Southwell 14:45 - Duster 1pt win Do not want to make this a habit of backing short ones in maiden races but Duster realy does not look like having much to beat here, 2nd on debut at Lingfield on the all-weather surface looks fair enough form, obviously he should also improve for that run. Likely dangers comes from Mr Smithson and Coolella but the first named has had plenty of chances to break his maiden tag and looks exposed, his 3rd LTO at Southwell was not a great run and the form of that race looks poor, Collella showed some improvement LTO when 3rd at Carlisle but I'll stick with the one who is proven on the firbresand and this looks a great chance to get off the mark. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day 10th Aug 7.20 Windsor Orisis Way looks overpriced and could go well for Patrick Chamings. This class 3 handicap looks more straighforward than some of his previous assigments this term - which have included the Wokingham and the Stewards Cup. He ran well on his reappearance at Goodwood when fourth of thirteen as it was only close to home that he lost two places, and that run came off a 5 lb higher mark. Billy the Punter has already told how strongly the Wokingham form is working out in his thread, so his mere participation in the race at Ascot, when he was 15/26, is a positive for me, and I can excuse his latest effort in the Stewards Cup when he raced prominently. He has dropped back down to his last winning mark, is a four time distance winner and handles cut. 1 pt EW Supernap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day 10th Aug 800 Thirsk : Baan EW I reckon this looks a good bet to nothing at around 6/1 at the moment, the fav Spiders Star is improving and looks fairly solid but another big hike in the weights may find it tougher and the last time he won was a small field affair which isnt always a true race over these long trips. Bann came back to form last time with a positive ride from Jimmy Quinn and I expect the same here, pushing on in the straight and making it a real test of stamina. The fav may get to him but cant see many others doing likewise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day 10th Aug 7.50 Windsor Beauchamp Xerxes 1pt win 4th in the Wood Ditton stakes, a race that frequently throws up good horses, 4th in a class 4 maiden at Chester when drawn 9 ( very poor draw) and 2nd in a listed race at Goodwood 3 runs ago. The trainer seems to be still trying to measure up Beauchamp Xerxes and puts him in a class 5 maiden today! Beauchamp Xerxes is officially rated 100 and could simply outclass his rivals today in this 1M½F race. The negative is the distance today, Beauchamp Xerxes would be better at longer distances given his breeding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cc75 Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day 10th Aug Southwell 4.45: Good Humoured WIN Based on debut run when close 2nd round this course and distance could prove to be quite nicely handicapped. A couple of horses that finished behind that day have since went on to run well from higher marks than this in handicap company. Failed to build on that debut maiden run on polytrack and LTO made handicap debut when beaten favourite. Didn't have any luck on LTO run so can be forgiven finishing position and now dropped a further 2lbs could be a little bit of a handicap snip if return to fibresand holds the key to this horse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandgrounder Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day 10th Aug Ballinrobe.8.40. I keep doing this one, there is no reason why it can't win to night. a string of 2nds. last time on the flat, the time before in a chase, and earlyier over hurdles, the horse is. CoffeeTea or Me. Ruby Walsh rides, who has a couple of other good rides tonight, could be a treble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day 10th Aug 3.30 Wolverhampton Bahamian Music This one keeps on improving, placed on debut and then stepped up to win last time out so seems to be going the right way. Yard and jockey both in good form this season and strong in the market this morning. Win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DM99 Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day 10th Aug 3.15 Southwell - Kensington Oval (LAY) After a very promising debut, Kensington Oval has consistently underperformed. Stoute must be tearing his hair out in frustration. He makes his AW debut today where he will need to both take to the surface and step it up a notch to score. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishbugger Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day 10th Aug 3.15pm Southwell 'Kingsdale Orion' Horse in decent form, trainer runs 2 in the race and this looks the pick. Step up to 1m4f will suit based on running on 3rd at Kempton 2 runs back. Jockey gets on well with the horse. Moheeb boosted last time out form by winning its next 2. Think this horse is well over-priced for today's race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day 10th Aug 6.50 Windsor Clientele stands out for me here & i will risk a bet beforehand but 5/2 EP at Ladbrokes is probably worth taking especially with Johnstons recent form to take account of. Won its maiden easy enough at Pontefract 3 weeks ago & doesnt have too much to beat here with a number of these struggling off these marks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pumpit Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day 10th Aug Wolverhampton 4.00pm 1pt lay Desert Streak A few think this horse can follow up today after winning on Friday the 7th and from notes just held on to win so not a 100% vote from me,was leading at final furlong but just got it on the line can this happen today,dont think so. First run today at this track and the field will prove to much today with 3 others giving more for me today,laying. Goodluck Whatever You Bet Today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day 10th Aug Wolv - 4.00 - Kyleene Looks pretty well in here on her handicap debut off a mark of 70 Ran 2nd in a Ffos Las maiden with a couple of horses rated around 60 about 5 or 6 lengths behind her. The 4th in the race has since come out and won a maiden beating a horse rated 74. Using a rough pounds for lengths I reckon Kyleene should be rated around 80. That run at FL was her first of the season so she may come on a bit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucky-15 Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day 10th Aug Southwell 16.45 Twice C&D winner Yankee Storm comes here today looking like he's showing signs of getting back to form after improving in his three runs this season, running off the same mark when third LTO he's 2lb lower than his last winning mark and imo he can get back to winning ways.:ok 1pt win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lars Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day 10th Aug Southwell 16:45 Tri Chara hasn't really had a bad run on the all-weather and I feel it may be time for this horse to step up a little bit. It's past all-weather form is 1445645 and looking at it's turf runs, it's fairly obvious that all-weather is it's speciality. Back down to a lower mark than when it last won at, and it's a nice price at 10/1 Bet365 and that's decent value. A.Kirby aboard who is a decent jockey too. 0.5pt EW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boulder5111 Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day 10th Aug T7.00 Diamond Daisy 0.5pt E/W Ran one of its best races over this c&d in a big runnner field. De Souza takes the ride today and he won on the horse LTO. Fairly handicapped and may go in again now that its got its head in front. The horse should have every chance of making the frame at least so it looks like an e/w bet to nothing. The trainer is also flying at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day 10th Aug 7.50 Windsor Beauchamp Xerxes is without doubt the best 3yo maiden in training, and given his justified rating of 100, he is perhaps the best maiden of all time. With these types it's always important to judge whether or not a horse has been flattered by one or two performances. For example, with Beauchamp Xerxes at first look he may seem inconsistent (2nd in a Listed event then 8th in a maiden). However I do not agree, I believe he has shown a consistent level of form in maiden company and lost nothing in defeat in those maidens due to their high quality, that 8th LTO is very decent run for example. 4th on debut in the Wood Ditton behind Militarist, then 4th on his 2nd start at Chester in a maiden that has worked out well.... 1st Harbinger - won G3 NTO 2nd Changingoftheguard - 2/3 since, 5/1 for Ebor and 20/1 for St Leger 3rd Una Pelota - beaten on sole start since but trained by Nicky Vaughan so it doesn't count 4th Beauchamp Xerxes 5th Norwegian Dancer - 2/4 since No surprise to see him start single figures for a Listed race NTO and he ran another solid race when 2nd to Alwaary. Alwaary was an unlucky 2nd in a G2 NTO (easy Goodwood Cup winner alongside) and was then 4th in the King George. Beauchamp Xexeres' following run was his only below-par effort. He was tailed off in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot, pulling too hard at his first attempt at 1m4f his downfall. Was only 8th LTO in a Newmarket maiden but that race is another that is working out extremely well. The 2nd, 4th and 6th have won impressively since and the well beaten 10th and 11th have put in decent efforts in defeat NTO. Beauchamp Xerxes was short of room that day after pulling hard early (not for the first time). Back in trip here to a mile could suit, he is related to a host of mile (or thereabouts winners) and it should sort out his keeness early on. I cannot believe this horse is odds-against and even if you haven't played cheer him on for me as this is my biggest bet of the year so far. Beauchamp Xerxes - Double Nap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day 10th Aug Geez, Billy..........I bet you were having kittens when that horse came after him in ther last furlong..........:lol Won comfortably enough in the end tho'.......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day 10th Aug Geez, Billy..........I bet you were having kittens when that horse came after him in ther last furlong..........:lol Won comfortably enough in the end tho'.......... No way! Never a moments doubt, I was cool as a cucumber watching the race. I've just changed my pants. :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
south_eastern_ram Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day 10th Aug 8.30 Thirsk - Dark Lane E/W Competitive race here and i'm stuck between Dark Lane and Mullglen. Dark Lane seems to run in a class 4, run pretty well then be stepped up to a higher grade, run poor so is dropped back down again. So his last 4 races read 1020, but is once again in a class 4 today so could run well here. Can handle the ground and is running on his debut for the Fahey camp, which is always a plus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted August 11, 2009 Share Posted August 11, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day 10th Aug plenty of happy face in here yesterday Skylark, BTP, Hoprock, Trotter, Wizzkid, BH, Zero and Dudeman :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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