No bet is no problem....or is it?

[RussP]

Interested to hear people's views on this. Personally, no bet is no problem. I can go days or weeks without a bet, as I won't bet just for the sake of it. Unless a horse ticks all the boxes, I'm happy to ignore it even if I 'fancy' it. If it wins, then I've missed a winner but I'm sure there would be more losing 'fancies' than not. However, on the flip side, it is important to 'keep your eye in' so, for that main reason, I've decided to take up laying, albeit to smaller stakes. This way, I can still bet on a race where I can narrow down the contenders but not necessarily pinpoint the winner. The one thing that will not change is the type of race I'll bet on....it will always be all age flat handicaps. 2 things that intrigue me (mainly because I can't do it anymore) is: - what is the motivation behind backing 5 or 6 horses a day? It is because you feel the need to have a bet or is it that you 'fancy' a horse & don't want to miss a winner? Or another reason? - how easy do you find it concentrating on all types of racing? Do you try to stick to one type? Again, is it the need to have a bet? I'd be really interested to hear views on this. I have a style that suits me but that is not to say it cannot be changed. I'm happy doing what I do but it's good to share opinions. :ok

[fintron]

Re: No bet is no problem....or is it? Interesting topic. I have tried the approach whereby I stick only to my strongest fancies and it was a disaster for me personally. The ones I thought were very strong chances often got beat whilst the half fancies sometimes won (i think they call this sods law!!) so for me the back several horses a day approach works best. I think the problem is that if a punter only has a small number of bets then it can take longer for their judgment to shine through. In the long term they will eventually get ahead, but if they had more bets over a quicker period of time (and this is assuming all are backed on the same grounds as usual, not for the sake of it) then they get on top quicker. So for me the motivation for backing lots each day is trying to unearth my edge quicker. If I only have a small number of bets I don't know whether I am a good/bad punter or whether my success/failure is down to coincidence. I think this is very much down to the indivual though. For you Russ, betting to levels and having a small number of bets each week works very well and your threads are in nice profit. For me though, I am an action junkie, I think I have more chance of getting ahead by backing several each day, and think if bets fall within a staking plan then I can do that long term. As I back within a broad SP band it seems daft for me to have equal stakes on a 5/1 or 20/1 shot, because the probability of them winning is drastically different. As for the second question, that isn't really something that effects me. Pretty much all my bets come from handicaps and I feel I have a good understanding of how they work. When it comes to Group stuff I'm hopeless so tend to duck that altogether.

[chris34]

Re: No bet is no problem....or is it? Nice debate for a sunday evening - what is the motivation behind backing 5 or 6 horses a day? It is because you feel the need to have a bet or is it that you 'fancy' a horse & don't want to miss a winner? Or another reason? For me perosnally I may back anything from 0-10 horses a day, just depends on how much time ive got on my hands and whether I can narrow down a field enough, also depends if I have notes on any of the runners in a race. I mean today I only had one bet today because of it being summer jumping at that was the one i put up in BBOTD otherwise ive just sat back and enjoyed a quiet afternoon looking at tomorrows racing so may have found more than I usually would as had some spair time lol! - how easy do you find it concentrating on all types of racing? Do you try to stick to one type? Again, is it the need to have a bet? Very very hard to concentrate on all type of racing, recently given up trying to follow irish racing also dont follow summer jumps, also given up most claiming and selling races so unpredictable at times unless i have a hot fancy or notes to go with a runner dont bother with them anymore, So that mainly leaves all age and 3yo handicaps that i concentrate on these days and dont do to badly out of it, Also have a look at Nurseries aswell but if dont have the time dont touch them I find they require a hell of a lot more time especially right now when theyre all running in their first handicaps! This place has taught me a hell of a lot since joining, I used to be the usual mug punter following RP tips, betting on every race, and no real knowledge since then learnt a lot and now dont look at a single tip from ATR or RP or anywhere until my days bets are placed!

[BillyHills]

Re: No bet is no problem....or is it? Answers in reverse order; 2)I dont bet much nowadays, just dont have the time to take it seriously anymore so just concentrate on my Novice Hurdles these days, i find it makes me more focussed and enjoy it as a result. Its good to feel you have a certain amount of knowledge which breeds confidence. With few Novice Hurdles just now I feel I have a very good angle on the form which in turn helps in making the right decisions, just too much racing nowadays to be confident in all types of racing unless you have many hours and a bloody good memory. I have the second but not the first, I only look at flat racing when in need of a BBOTD entry which I like to support each day. 1) I find that some people that back 5 or 6 or more horses a day are those that have bad starts to the afternoon and end up chasing their losses. Others have so much to 'spend' and will keep going until its all gone, whether that be on one good thing or several throughout the day. I used to have a punter that came in with £200 most days, always backed favs, he could be there half the afternoon or just for two or three races, if he won he increased his stakes, it was mindless really but there are many just like him. Some have 10 yankees covering almost every race, each to their own and i'm not about to start a clinic on sensible gambling. I dont think there is a right or wrong where opinions and gambling are concerned, you only have to look around the PL to see different styles and they all work for some, for me its all about staking and money management and not how many bets you have. A problem some have is this, you look at the cards for the day, you find a race that interests you and you start going through the form book, at the end of it all you cant really pin it down to a selection but because you have just spent some valuable time on the race you feel you have a small understanding of it you feel forced into having a bet on it, obviously you should move on and find something else or not bother at all, its a trap the less experienced punter or compulsive punter falls into every day.

[Blair Boy]

Re: No bet is no problem....or is it? When I first started betting I was what I call a paper punter where I would pick horses based on a quick judge of form from the daily papers was usually 1 tenner bet per day, in the long as you would expect I was still at loss when I did eventually win. Know I will study anything from 1-5 races the night before and usually only back the strongest 1-2 from the list regardless of a win or lose situation. Also when I first started to bet I would bet for the sake of it but know if I can help it I usually wont place a bet unless I'm fairly confident in the selection, better while under the influence is a danger I've also had which had lead to off the cuff selections I won't usually think twice about going near.

[Stevet1859]

Re: No bet is no problem....or is it? I tend to bet when I can watch it....usually on a Saturday afternoon. Thats when my wife and three daughters go out shopping....!! I have the place to myself and try to make hay while the sun shines so to speak. This usually means the most competetive handicaps of the week... I have got ATR as part of Sky package but not Racing UK. Its a bit hard to push me daughters off the pc when they are doing their homework during the week. Having recently tried to concentrate on speed ratings I probably should stick to races up to a mile or 1m 1f say, but that went out the window this afternoon when I got on the pc and allowed myself to get suckered in to backing Beauty O'Gwain, mainly beacuse Ladbrokes were so short. I don't like to watch the racing without having a bet - lack of self discipline unfortuantely...but trying to do better.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: No bet is no problem....or is it? - what is the motivation behind backing 5 or 6 horses a day? It is because you feel the need to have a bet or is it that you 'fancy' a horse & don't want to miss a winner? Or another reason? I bet on horses, because i enjoy it, gives me something to look forward to each day. There's no better feeling than picking a winner even if i dont have any money on it. The money side just adds to the enjoyment and the buzz. If i've got something better to do then i wont even look at horse racing, mostly over weekends when i'm playing cricket. - how easy do you find it concentrating on all types of racing? Do you try to stick to one type? Again, is it the need to have a bet? I stick to fields of less than 10, and avoid maidens, summer hurdles, grade 1/2, listed races, Irish racing. So today, i didnt have a bet

[jtw1]

Re: No bet is no problem....or is it? Personally i find that concentrating on one particular type of racing [ Listed/Group class ] means that i no longer have a bet for betting's sake . If that means one or two bets in a week then so be it and if results keep going the way they have been i'll be going into hibernation shortly ;)

[bowles10]

Re: No bet is no problem....or is it? This debate has come at the right time for me Russ after a very poor week (1 return from last 24 bets), but when you see the horses i backed, there is a good reason for doing so & they were also well supported in a number of cases but didnt run to form at all. That frustrates me, as you put all the work in & then its just not a "going" day for the horse at all. Money down the drain. I am a person who if i pick something out, i will have a bet on it. The reason for my thread since April was to analyse just what i do over a period of time. After near on 3 months (say 85 days) i have had 175 bets which in truth isnt bad as it also included 3 trips to the races where you are bound to have a few bets. So, an average of just over 2 bets a day, the next analysis i need to do is how much i win on a weekend as i expect it could show a heavy loss. I know i have won decent money on Monday nights this year due to some great results at Windsor however is it just a coincidence? weekend racing must be the hardest & yet, i bet the majority of us have 30% of our betting in a week on a saturday if not more. Yesterday, i backed 5 horses, 1st one was a major blow as it came last despite being favourite, the 2nd won at 7/2 (a horse i had followed for some time), the 3rd was in the big handicap of the day & i didnt want to miss it if it came in at a nice price. It ran well in about 8th at the end, & there may be another day. The 4th horse was e/w at 10/1 & was headed on the line for 3rd place, & the last bet went off 11/1 & i know it should have covered it ew at that price, it came 3rd. I have thought about a weeks rest but......is there any point. What i do know is when i break a losing run, normally its a nice price. I do like to keep my eye in but when low on confidence i get too careful & sometimes miss the things I am good at. I know others who just look at a race & say "thats going to win today & Spencer is riding it & so on" ok, but do they know if it has won off that rating before, what ground it likes, does it go over C/D?? So many factors that i know people dont even consider before having a bet. my mate won £1200 last year from a £12 bet, 5 winners in a super heinz, good luck to him, but how did he pick them when all he reads is the Tabloid page?? During the flat season, i rarely back over the sticks & i normally stop backing on the flat as soon as the main jump meetings start.

[Irishbugger]

Re: No bet is no problem....or is it? I look at the racing cards the night before, if something catches my eye, I'll have a go, if not I won't go near the computer, such as today when only Sariska stood out and I'm not one for 1/1 favs. If I'm killing time I might mess about with small stakes to pass an hour, but generally only bet when I fancy a horse. Something that attracts me more than anything else to a race is 'an oddity' .... strange jockey bookings, travellers check for a trainer not renowned for it being 2 of my favourite, and profitable, things. I also absolutely love horses dropping in grade or unlucky last time out. When I'm watching racing, the first thing I do after seeing something unlucky/badly ridden is add the horse to my 'nag me' stable, then next time out, if the grade, course, distance and jockey are right, I'm all over it. I like to think I know enough to pick winners, I lack the discipline to do this as anything more than a hobby though.

[ken678]

Re: No bet is no problem....or is it? Yes great debale for a Sunday eveneing - read them all with interest but only reall decided to add anything when reading the last post - which says to paraphrase - something about having the discipline required. After many years I have sadly realised I have not!! I remain absolutely convinced that there is money to be be made - not seamlessly - but overall IF, but ONLY IF, you have the almost schizoid personality required! By that I mean you have to have the punting/almost thrill seeking element of enjoying a bet (which is at least in part "pitting your wits" against the rest) whilst at the same time have the boring self-denying ordinance of the average Chartered Accountant! Some have it - most of us don't. As someone else said on here it is great fun (and satisfying - not only in money terms) to ferret out something "laid out" for a punt. For that reason I love sellers/claimers/Amateur or Apprentice rider races - they lend themselves particularly to a coup.

[kevsul]

Re: No bet is no problem....or is it?

Interested to hear people's views on this. 2 things that intrigue me (mainly because I can't do it anymore) is: - what is the motivation behind backing 5 or 6 horses a day? It is because you feel the need to have a bet or is it that you 'fancy' a horse & don't want to miss a winner? Or another reason? In truth I don't study as hard as you guys here at ATR, I still have a look at my distance bet. I Don't back horses for the sake of it, I do tend to follow certain guys on PL - how easy do you find it concentrating on all types of racing? Do you try to stick to one type? Again, is it the need to have a bet?

Again, not really into the hard work of looking for a race to play in, My New thing now is looking at Laying one of the distance's, as I had an attempt at dutching, with some success, not brilliant but ok. When I read about you finding races and saying, this is possible, but it's a no bet day. as it did not stand out and tick the correct boxes, now you look at the laying. So I tried this with the distance bet, so far so good, now need to put this into action on ATR. Great debate again, as it is vastly different for everyone

[billy the punter]

Re: No bet is no problem....or is it? This is a facsinating subject and there have been many myths on it over the years. It used to be that case that almost all pros were ultra-selective, today the reverse is true. Many pros/winning punters are very active. The majority who win without help, play daily. The easy access to data (form and replays) in recent years and the introduction betting exchanges have dictated this. A huge amount of pros/winning punters bet daily during the season's the specialise in. I honestly believe that it is mainly only information-only punters are those that are ultra-selective. Personally I bet in a huge amount of races. Especially during the summer months where there can be up to six flat meetings day. I averaged over 6 bets a in June. I study for many hours daily though, so naturally I will have more opinions than most and therefore have more bets. I don't think a time limit is the issue with regards to how many bets, the amount of bets in a 24 hour period is irrelevant really. As long as sufficent study has been carried out then it's fine surely? Maybe amount of bets per hours studied should be the question? I'm more than comfortable with the amounts of bets I have as I believe that a higher turnover accounts for possible poor fortune and that over a bigger sample judgement will always be king. Also If you're a varied stakes punter then the amount of bets and the S/R they produce is less important. Staking is key. In theory you can be 1/1000 over the course of the year and still show massive profits. I think the important factor is the ability to say "no" even when you have an opinion. I can give you a selection in every race that is run, how many of those opinions turn into bets is key. This is where many gamblers fail. Not every opinion should be acted upon. In simplistic terms I would secure an x% S/R on every race, however by filtering those opinions I will raise that S/R and therefore maximise profits. So, I think a high turnover is fine, but only if there are good reasons for a high turnover. There should be no guesses or chasing bets in those possible 5/6 bets a day. Specialising is a tricky subject. I'm more comfortable betting in certain types of races but you should never say never. I stopped betting on NH racing until last winter, I was basically forced back into studying jumps due to new interests. It turned out to be very profitable for me personally. Gamblers should always be looking to improve and evolve. 90% of my bets will always be in handicaps/claimers/sellers/non-handicap hurdles but that doesn't mean I should always ignore handicap chases or G1 sprints - just that most of the time my time is best spent elsewhere. :ok

[billy the punter]

Re: No bet is no problem....or is it? I meant to add. As Russ touches upon earlier, he has a system that suits him - that is key. I suppose there are no right or wrong methods really, just right and wrong methods for each individual. It would be incorrect for some to play in many races due to other commitments they may have for example. If a punter is making a profit they are without doubt on the right track, however as I've mentioned many times, there is always room for improvement and evolving can increase already impressive results. :ok

[downjag]

Re: No bet is no problem....or is it? What a lot of punters fail to grasp is the more horses you back the harder it is to get in front. Stick to one or two strong fancies per day and you have more chance of a profit. The more horses you back, the more chance the bookie has of getting money and therefore the less chance you have of a good profit. As someone who has been gambling for the best part of 40 years I have plenty of experience to draw on. Also from having owned horses I know what goes on in the game, especially with gambling stables.

[fintron]

Re: No bet is no problem....or is it? but surely the effects of bad luck/misfortune are amplified if a punter only has 5 bets a week compared to 50 bets? Providing there was solid judgement behind all bets of course.

[King Theoden]

Re: No bet is no problem....or is it? I think Billy The Punter is right when he says number of bets per day is up to one's systems. I think most profiting horse bettors, racing or trotting, have some kind of system or some systematical reasoning behind their bets. I'm from country where racing is trotting racing, and I remember how I first found that warmblooded(we have also coldblood races) race leaders are often good bets. That was good enough for me for long time, I concentrated on those situations. I avoided coldblood-races that time, because they gallop(forbidden in trotting races) two times as often as warmblooded. Then I was at some race and looked warm-up for one coldblood-race. The favourite didn't trot at all, it was galloping and looked sore. I looked at odds board and couldn't believe that 2nd and 3rd favourite paid 18-times in quennella. Usually favourite and second favourite pay 4 to 7-seven times in quennella and we could almost certainly rule favourite out in this race. Nobody seem to put any notice that favourite had very hard time to trot on that day. The race came and favourite was disqualified at start and 2nd and 3rd favourite won and placed second paying that 18-times. Soon afterwards I realised that coldblooded very often showed their day's galopping tendency in the warm-up but people don't react to that at the betting desk. I' did found another betting "system" or angle and that happened in the races I earlier avoided at all costs. That thing was really an eye-opener for me and I realised that they are many ways to find value in horse racing and many times finding those angles one needs to be out of his "comfort zone". As newbie to British racing I can only guess if there's different methods for example jumps and flat racing.

[fintron]

Re: No bet is no problem....or is it? Just been reading through the comments on this subject again as I find it really interesting and wanted to re-assess things again for me personally. I've come to the conclusion that bets should only be made when betting opportunities are there and properly researched, picking up on BTP's point above. Each race is an independent event and the result of race 1 on day 1 plays no part in determining the outcome of race 2 on day 1, so there is no sensible reason to ignore race 2 in my opinion, holding out for another bet later in the week. If the horse in race two meets all usual criteria and the bet has been properly researched then IMO that horse has to be backed. By restricting themselves to one bet or day or only a couple of bets a week a punter may be passing up opportunities to build up their profit, and they don't know whether such other opportunities may be around the corner. At Newmarket last week, for example, there was plenty of good racing and for me plenty of bets. I'm glad I cashed in when I did, because yesterday's flat racing was substandard and I felt picks only deserved much lower stakes. Its been said above that there is a split in the camp as to which is the best approach here but for me, with plenty of free time to study I don't feel comfortable backing one winner/loser and just sitting on it, I want to try improve upon that and find my edge quicker.

[StuSimmy]

Re: No bet is no problem....or is it? I tend to have at least 2-3 bets a day, I study a fair bit everyday and tend to just back in the races where I fancy the horse much more strongly than the others rather than the races where I am between 2-4 horses. Saying that sometimes I am too busy to come on and study and therefore usually don't bet and on the odd occasion I will follow some tips on this board if I like the write up and fancy the horse myself.