billy the punter Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 I'm not a huge stats man, however I do like stats that are born from logic. Hopefully in this thread I will flag up some useful, logical, non-obvious stats. I do not read the racing press a lot these days so apologies if any are mentioned there, or elsewhere on PL. These are all from my own findings but some are bound to be seen by others too. I will try my best to post daily. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 Re: BTP's Stat of the Day will look forward to this Billy as i AM a HUGE stats man! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 Re: BTP's Stat of the Day Cheers Billy...........should be interesting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 20, 2009 Author Share Posted June 20, 2009 Re: BTP's Stat of the Day #1 Royal Ascot - Wokingham Stakes 6f 7f+ horses perform well 7 of the last 10 winners had won over 7f or a mile 13 of the last 15 winners had at least placed over 7f or a mile 6 of the last 8 winners had recorded an average winning distance of OVER 6f With this being a fiercy run 6f on a stiff track it's no wonder that 7f horses have done so well over the years. Two winners had even won over a mile - Ratio and Lafi. 7f+ winners Asset 33/1 Carcinetto 200/1 High Standing 7/1 Joseph Henry 100/1 Markab 18/1 Tamagin 33/1 (all have average winning distance over 6f) Placed over 7f Advanced 33/1 Beaver Patrol 40/1 Evens And Odds 18/1 Orpsie Boy 33/1 Prohibit 40/1 Rock Of Rochelle 80/1 Unfortunately we only narrow things down to 12, but that isn't too bad considering it's an 86% stat (13/15 placed over 7f+) - and of course most of the horses in question are tasty prices. For me those in the "winners group" are the most interesting, I will probably back all of those. Given his draw perhaps Markab is the best option. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 Re: BTP's Stat of the Day Great idea Billy , anything that can point us in the right direction is welcome Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 Re: BTP's Stat of the Day First 4 all mentioned in your post :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 20, 2009 Author Share Posted June 20, 2009 Re: BTP's Stat of the Day The stronger group of 6 were responsible for 3 of the 4 placed horses. The 1-2-3-4-5-6 were all highlighted above, 8 from the first 9 home in total. 7f+ winners Asset 33/1 - 2nd Carcinetto 200/1 High Standing 7/1 - WON Joseph Henry 100/1 - 8th Markab 18/1 - 4th Tamagin 33/1 (all have average winning distance over 6f) Placed over 7f Advanced 33/1 - 6th Beaver Patrol 40/1 Evens And Odds 18/1 Orpsie Boy 33/1 - 9th Prohibit 40/1 - 5th Rock Of Rochelle 80/1 - 3rd Markab was the one I singled out and I had a bigger E/W bet on him, he ran a cracker considering most of the pace switched to the far rail. I went level stakes on the remaining 5 from the "winners" list. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 21, 2009 Author Share Posted June 21, 2009 Re: BTP's Stat of the Day Pleased with stat number 1, it's something we will have to remember for next season's Wokingham. #2 Sugar Ray (3.40 Pontefract) Dane O'Neill is 50% (2-4) for Godolphin Godolphin are 56% (5-9) with older horses at Pontefract 75% (8-12) of yard's last 12 runners have at least placed Dane O'Neill has ridden four times for Godolphin: Natural Force - WON 9/2 Lunar Landscape - 5th All The Good - WON 25/1 Silk Trail - 3rd A 50% S/R and £27.50 profit to £1 level stakes, with every selection running well. Sugar Ray also has decent record when fresh (3125) and should get an easy lead here. I think there are plenty of negatives regarding his rivals, in fact I am most worried about Zaham. Although Zaham has shown nothing since returning to the action, if he improves towards his best he would have a big chance. I may regret backing a Godolphin in a non-handicap race but I'm going with a "Betfair E/W" bet on Sugar Ray. Only 6 runners go to post but he is close to evens a place (1-2-3) and 7.8 on the win side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 21, 2009 Author Share Posted June 21, 2009 Re: BTP's Stat of the Day Sugar Ray beaten a nose for place - 1/5 in-running too. The race didn't go to plan, Zaham reverted to front running tactics so Sugar Ray didn't get the expected lead. Not that informative today, I really didn't want to go down to the jockey for trainer, trainer at track route. Like I said in the original post I want to look for some non-obvious ones. Gonna struggle to do that every day though. Hopefully come up with something more interesting tomorrow. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted June 21, 2009 Share Posted June 21, 2009 Re: BTP's Stat of the Day Billy.........it struck me, looking at the race, that they were running Zaham as a spoiler.........to make sure Sugar Ray didn't get a soft lead and to set the race up for Drumfire. Have to watch M Johnston - he often goes into races with more than one runner - maybe he's trying the Ballydoyle tactics - have to keep an eye on him ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 22, 2009 Author Share Posted June 22, 2009 Re: BTP's Stat of the Day Billy.........it struck me, looking at the race, that they were running Zaham as a spoiler.........to make sure Sugar Ray didn't get a soft lead and to set the race up for Drumfire. Have to watch M Johnston - he often goes into races with more than one runner - maybe he's trying the Ballydoyle tactics - have to keep an eye on him ! That's a good point mate and not something I thought of when watching the race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 22, 2009 Author Share Posted June 22, 2009 Re: BTP's Stat of the Day #3 5f Nottingham Maiden 28th April (won by Gilt Edge Girl) - working out well 67% (6/9) of those that have run since, have won 89% (8/9) of those that have run since, have at least placed since Those that have run have won 7 races between them from 20 starts since (35%). Those that have run have at least placed 15 times between them from 20 starts (75%). The first six home have run 14 times since, this has resulted in... 6 wins 7 placed efforts (only unplaced effort was a 4th) Global Village (5th) runs in the 4.30 Wolverhampton. Devil You Know (4th) runs in the 7.40 Windsor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted June 22, 2009 Share Posted June 22, 2009 Re: BTP's Stat of the Day #3 5f Nottingham Maiden 28th April (won by Gilt Edge Girl) - working out well 67% (6/9) of those that have run since, have won 89% (8/9) of those that have run since, have at least placed since Those that have run have won 7 races between them from 20 starts since (35%). Those that have run have at least placed 15 times between them from 20 starts (75%). The first six home have run 14 times since, this has resulted in... 6 wins 7 placed efforts (only unplaced effort was a 4th) Global Village (5th) runs in the 4.30 Wolverhampton. Devil You Know (4th) runs in the 7.40 Windsor. Global Village placed @1.51 betfair so thats decent odds for a Fav to place :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted June 22, 2009 Share Posted June 22, 2009 Re: BTP's Stat of the Day Yes, just got outpaced at a vital stage IMO and needs further. Good thread though Billy and interesting research. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted June 22, 2009 Share Posted June 22, 2009 Re: BTP's Stat of the Day Great thread Billy, always an interesting read. Both the highlighted horses today finished in the money so well done:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 22, 2009 Author Share Posted June 22, 2009 Re: BTP's Stat of the Day Cheers guys, and jwt for Saturday. Both ran well continuing the decent place record of those who race in the race - especially the top 6 home. Both horses were on my list prior to these runs and I'm convinced as ever that there is more to come from Global Village and Devil You Know. Agree with others that the former needs 7f. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 22, 2009 Author Share Posted June 22, 2009 Re: BTP's Stat of the Day #4 Newbury Handicaps (Straight course) - High numbers favoured in double figure fields As always I proportion fields into three groups, the low third, the middle third and the high third. 89% (8/9) of winners this season were drawn "middle" or "high" 57% (17/30) of all placed horses this season were drawn "high" 9.00 Newbury - 14 runners Sherjawy (10) Triple Dream (11) Louie's Lad (12) Done Pele (13) Trivia (14) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 Re: BTP's Stat of the Day lookıng forward to readıng more of thıs Bılly. Lıke your stat for the 9 pm, as on Don Pele myself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 25, 2009 Author Share Posted June 25, 2009 Re: BTP's Stat of the Day The high draws all finished in the first 7 home. Triple Dream was my bet (on my diary list) and he came from way off the pace to be beaten around half a length. Low draw won though so the stat is now... 80% (8/10) of winners this season were drawn "middle" or "high" 55% (18/33) of all placed horses this season were drawn "high" ---------------------------- No time yesterday. #5 Henry Cecil - runners at Newcastle 56% with 3yos since 1996 (14/25) 43% with 3yos since 1988 (27/63) 39% with all runners since 1988 (36/92) Like I've mentioned already, I wanted this to be a little more than trainer/course stats however the great man's record at Newcastle is so prolific it has to be mentioned. Amazing consistency over a long period of time based on many runners, it's not usual to see these S/R's on samples as big as these. One runner at Newcastle day... 5.00 Grisholm Castle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted June 25, 2009 Share Posted June 25, 2009 Re: BTP's Stat of the Day can i just add this Billy http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f13/newcastle-24-june-86558/#post1413383 i hope it doesnt go tits up today but the 1 or 2 draw havent won in the last 21 races over the straight course at Newcastle, in fact only 3 times have they made the frame. :ok i see the cecil runner is a 6/4 chance. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 25, 2009 Author Share Posted June 25, 2009 Re: BTP's Stat of the Day can i just add this Billy http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f13/newcastle-24-june-86558/#post1413383 i hope it doesnt go tits up today but the 1 or 2 draw havent won in the last 21 races over the straight course at Newcastle, in fact only 3 times have they made the frame. :ok i see the cecil runner is a 6/4 chance. :ok Of course. Great work mate. :ok Cecil's looks to hold massive form chances also - the 2nd was 2nd in the Ribblesdale and the horse tailed off in last was rated 81. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted June 25, 2009 Share Posted June 25, 2009 Re: BTP's Stat of the Day Hi all think its significant but according to ATR Newcastle have moved their stalls to stand side so that should negate the stall 1 or 2 bias Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted June 25, 2009 Share Posted June 25, 2009 Re: BTP's Stat of the Day Hi all think its significant but according to ATR Newcastle have moved their stalls to stand side so that should negate the stall 1 or 2 bias 1 draw is on the outside, so they have to come across. You do have to be careful with the stalls here, but the key is that near side rail. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted June 25, 2009 Share Posted June 25, 2009 Re: BTP's Stat of the Day I agree bowles but the centre or stand side rail is a hell of a lot better than the much slower far rail so in an 8 horse race i dont think GC will be too inconvenienced by stall 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted June 25, 2009 Share Posted June 25, 2009 Re: BTP's Stat of the Day I agree bowles but the centre or stand side rail is a hell of a lot better than the much slower far rail so in an 8 horse race i dont think GC will be too inconvenienced by stall 2 its ok Larry, GC is running over 1m2f, so has to come round the bend, so my stats dont apply to that race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 25, 2009 Author Share Posted June 25, 2009 Re: BTP's Stat of the Day The Cecil stat didn't improve today. :( Still finding my feet with this thread, don't want it to offer up tips really, just want to relay info - the first post is a prime example. Hopefully it will take shape soon. #6 Chester - those coming from off the pace are at a disadvantage Only 8% (2/24) winners this season had "held up" or "in rear" in their winning formline Nothing new with this one but perhaps the figures are even lower than we expect. Fareer is the only horse to win this season after purposely being held up. Given what Fareer did after (won the Britannia off 4lb higher) it looks as if a hold up horse has to have a great deal in hand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 26, 2009 Author Share Posted June 26, 2009 Re: BTP's Stat of the Day The Cecil stat didn't improve today. :( Still finding my feet with this thread, don't want it to offer up tips really, just want to relay info - the first post is a prime example. Hopefully it will take shape soon. #6 Chester - those coming from off the pace are at a disadvantage Only 8% (2/24) winners this season had "held up" or "in rear" in their winning formline Nothing new with this one but perhaps the figures are even lower than we expect. Fareer is the only horse to win this season after purposely being held up. Given what Fareer did after (won the Britannia off 4lb higher) it looks as if a hold up horse has to have a great deal in hand. Tonight's Chester winners... Made all Made all Made all Chased leaders Held up Tracked leader, led 3 out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 27, 2009 Author Share Posted June 27, 2009 Re: BTP's Stat of the Day No time for a stat today but yesterday's still applied with their being another Chester meeting. Today's Chester winners were... Chased leaders In touch Made all Tracked leaders Chased leaders Tracked leaders Now 3/36 had won with a "held up" or "in rear" form line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 28, 2009 Author Share Posted June 28, 2009 Re: BTP's Stat of the Day #7 Irish Derby - Aiden O'Brien's "other runners" over perform Ignoring his first strings, Aiden O'Brien has run 35 horses in the Irish Derby, resulting in three winners and nine placers. £1 E/W on all of those (£70) has returned... £182.80 £112.80 Profit 161% Yield Ignoring the first string (Fame And Glory), today he runs... Masterofthehorse 10/3 Paddy Power Golden Sword 12/1 Lads/Hills Drumbeat 66/1 Padd Power/Bet365 (110 Betfair) Rockhampton 250/1 Sportingbet (1000 Betfair) Byzantine 500/1 Lads/Coral/VC (1000 Betfair) I expect at least one of these to run better than the market suggests. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted June 28, 2009 Share Posted June 28, 2009 Re: BTP's Stat of the Day Reading that, think ill have a bit on Drumbeat EW at 66/1 to go with Gan Amhras who i've followed of Mowgli's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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