NH Novice Hurdlers

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up The first race was won by Love Of Tara who clearly liked the softened ground which I think caught out one or two of the fancied horses here. The fav weakened over the last two and Thedeboftheyear pulled up along with Ballyvesey who appeared to be going ok to that point. Nicholls did get the winner in the next, always going well and pulled away over the last, Strategic Choice plugged on for the EW money but just looks a stayer. Bets; 240 Ex: Strategic Approach 1pt EW (8/1 PP Bog)3rd 210 Ex: Thedeboftheyear 1pt (9/2 Bet365 Bog) PU Stakes: 763.00pts Returns: 746.76pts Profit : -16.24 pts R.O.I. : -2.12% Top Rated Stakes : 224 pts Returns: 221.09 pts Profit: -2.91pts R.O.I : -1.3%

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 220 Worcester 91 Orbital Orchid, 89 Be Smart, 87 Hayes Princess Towcester winner Hayes Princess carries the penalty and must have every chance in this weak race, he beat a couple of fairly solid types that day and the ground should be ok here. Orbital Orchid came out of the fog to run Cool Friend close on his debut this season which on bare figures is a good effort, not sure what the race was made up of though. There are a couple of bumper horses that could be useful but the Henderson horse may need the run like many others from his stable. 320 Worcester 88 Emperor Concerto, 88 Quelqu Un Comme Toi, 82 Springtree Emperor Concerto brings some useful form from last season to the table, his third behind Midnight Sail at Ascot is plenty good enough if fit on his seasonal debut. French horse Quelqu Un Comme Toi ran third at Fontwell but on reflection that doesnt look as good as the fav's overall form. Bumper winner Triggerman and pointer Hopeful Start are fancied on their debuts and outsider Springtree has bits of form. Bets; 220 Wor: Orbital Orchid 1pt EW(6/1 bet365 Bog) 320 Wor: Emperor Concerto 2pts (9/4 bet365 Bog)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Wonders may never cease, two winners in one day! Orbital Orchid loved the ground and just outstayed the challengers and won nicely, as thought the Henderson runner needed the run badly having looked to be going well two out and weakened. The runner up Sisella from the Hobbs yard ran really well. Hayes Princess wasnt disgraced either with the penalty. Emperor Concerto confirmed the promise he showed when last seen and could go on from here to better things, the runner up did well to stick with him for so long up the run in and both debutants needed the race. Bets; 220 Wor: Orbital Orchid 1pt EW(6/1 bet365 Bog) Won 320 Wor: Emperor Concerto 2pts (9/4 bet365 Bog) Won Stakes: 767.00pts Returns: 760.46pts Profit : -6.54 pts R.O.I. : -0.85% Top Rated Stakes : 226 pts Returns: 227.84 pts Profit: 1.84pts R.O.I : 0.81%

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Carlisle 210 89 Doc Wells, 84 Dree Hill, 73 Joes A Boy Very low key stuff here and Doc Wells looks best of those with form, his third to the later disqualified Dais Return wasnt a bad effort, Skaylancer was behind him taht day who has won two races since. Dree Hill is a bit of a plodder but could get placed again at a fair price. Joes A Boy ran with promise on his last run and is also a candidate for a place. The market will be interesting as far as the Murphy and Johnson debutants are concerned. Ludlow 220 94 Choisir Breeze, 92 Blazing Buck, 87 Dark Oasis Choisir Breeze seemed to improve for the switch to the Hobbs yard last time and with the stable in such good form he should go close here, the top one Dark Oasis led all the way here last time but I reckon this is tougher and will need to step up again. Blazing Buck was second in an average race at Chepstow and could get involved taking to this much different track. Both Mr Deal and Ravine Rose are big prices and wont be too far away. 530 Ludlow 97 Quentin Collonges, 94 Williams Wishes, 79 Substitute Be surprised if this isnt a two horse race, William Wishes hasnt been on my list of ones to follow but his win and then the last time out second to Risk arent bad runs but just think he's a bit quirky and doesnt always put it in. Quentin Collonges from the Daly yard which is doing well has some fair form from last season including two close up seconds and a fair fourth at Cheltenham, he usually tries to lead which could set up the race for his market rival but woulnt bet on WW going by when it comes down to it. Bets; 210 Car: Doc Wells 1pt (3/1 PP Bog) 220 Lud: Choisir Breeze 1pt 5/2 (bet365 Bog) 530 Lud: Quentin Collonges 2pts (Evens bet365 Bog)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Doc Wells was obviously not right for his first run after a break, never going well and pulled up in the straight, the race was quite moderate with the first two being bumper horses. Dark Oasis defied his penalty in game fashion, leading all the way and looking like second best two out, he battled on well, maybe handicaps now for that one. Chosir Breeze didnt look like winning from someway out and that was a step back from his previous run. In the last the fav Quentin Coillonges won very easily as expected, this Williams Wishes is not one to trust and was outclassed, the winner could win again if the ground stays firmish. Bets; 210 Car: Doc Wells 1pt (3/1 PP Bog) lost 220 Lud: Choisir Breeze 1pt 5/2 (bet365 Bog) lost 530 Lud: Quentin Collonges 2pts (Evens bet365 Bog) Won Stakes: 771.00pts Returns: 764.46pts Profit : -6.54 pts R.O.I. : -0.85% Top Rated Stakes : 229 pts Returns: 229.67 pts Profit: 0.67pts R.O.I : 0.3%

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 310 Fakenham 91 Baily Storm, 85 Shut The Bar Awful race that concerns just two with Baily Storm trying to compenaste for his defeat at 1/4 the other day, although disappointing he still looks to have the best form and this track does suit his front running style. Shut The Bar has had a break since his summer campaign in which he had a win over Grasscutter when the ground was a bit soft. Bets; 310 Fak: Baily Storm 2pts (4/7 VCBet Bog)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Not much to say really, it was a two horse race for the last circuit and although Shut The Bar looked like he was travelling well the winner Baily Storm was always just a few lengths too good, a positive ride by Richard Johnson should be mentioned, he gets a lot of flak but he got this spot on. Bets; 310 Fak: Baily Storm 2pts (4/7 VCBet Bog)WON Stakes: 773.00pts Returns: 767.60pts Profit : -5.40 pts R.O.I. : -0.69% Top Rated Stakes : 230 pts Returns: 231.24 pts Profit: 1.24pts R.O.I : 0.53

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 435 Aintree 92 Marc Aurele, 87 Sumak, 57 Pheonix Eye Not much form to go on here and a substandard race for the track. Marc Aurele has a good second to Riverside Theatre to his name but was slightly under par the last time we saw him. Sumak was 4th in a moderate race at Hexham and apart from that the dangers should be the two debutants from the powerful stables of Swinbank and Jonjo. 120 Chepstow 116 Reve De Sivola, 96 Pterodactyl A lovely little race and the best novice hurdle class wise this season so far, its just a shame we only have two runners with any real form and the fav is a newcomer from the Nicholls yard who has been so impressive in points and bumpers. Reve De Sivola represents some of the best juvenile form from last season winding up with a great run behind Walkon, he will take some stopping here, Pterodactyl isnt a mug either but looks to have plenty on his plate in this company. 445 Chepstow 94 Finmere, 80 Knight In The City, 55 Rhum The market here is dominated by the debutants from the King yard (which isnt firing just yet) and the Nicholls horse from France Royal Collonges, they should go well but not a betting race really. Finmere shows the best of those with experience and might run ok at a big price. 425 Stratford : 78 Points Of View, 75 Just Victor, 55 Quelbel A maiden race with very little form to go on, Points Of view has shown the best of those with any form but is a tentative selection. Bets; 425 Str: Points Of View 1pt (9/2 Bet365 Bog) 445 Che: Royal Collonges 1pt (8/11 WH Bog) 120 Che: Reve De Sivola 2pts (6/4 PP Bog) 435 Ain: Marc Aurele 2pts (7/4 Bet 365 Bog)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up At Chepstow the race of the day was a bit of a let down when the Nicholls newcomer just didnt perform and it was left to Reve De Sivola to waltz home, very impressive and should win again. Another poor display by Royal Collonges left Nicholls with a day to forget in the other race, Tell Massini was most impressive beating the King runner which will improve a lot I think. The Stratford race was a poor affair although Slip did it nicely, the second will come on for the run and I dont think the track suited that one. Points Of View sweated up badly and ran ok in third. At Aintree I couldnt believe the price on Marc Arele, drifted badly and another below par effort for the stable, the front two pulled wll clear and could be useful. Bets; 425 Str: Points Of View 1pt (9/2 Bet365 Bog) 3rd 445 Che: Royal Collonges 1pt (8/11 WH Bog) 3rd 120 Che: Reve De Sivola 2pts (6/4 PP Bog) Won 435 Ain: Marc Aurele 2pts (7/4 Bet 365 Bog) 3rd Stakes: 779.00pts Returns: 772.60pts Profit : -6.40 pts R.O.I. : -0.82% Top Rated Stakes : 234 pts Returns: 233.44 pts Profit: -0.56pts R.O.I : -0.23

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Busy day today; 135 Aintree 89 Knock Three Times, 87 Couer Brule, 81 New Tricks Stormy Weather fit from the flat and rated miles above any of these on flat form, from the powerful yard of Howard Johnson and should win if he jumps, wont be a price though. Knock Three Times won a very ordinary race at Kelso in which a couple of these were in behind that day, good prospects of reaching the frame as does Couer Brule who was secons at Wincanton. 355 Aintree 89 Cranky Corner, 88 Pure Faith, 80 Solway Ally Cranky Corner represents decent Irish form which has been a few pounds better than the English this summer so should take all the beating now he has moved to the Jonjo yard. Pure Faith was a fair second at Worcester and should make the frame. The fly in the ointment is Bold Addition from the Nicholls stable, a good bumper winner but wouldnt want to be wading in at a short price. 125 Towcester 88 Silver Bay, 86 Global Flyer, 81 Lord Generous I quite liked Silver Bay when we saw him last at Worcester, beat his rivals easily and looked one to follow, has had a break and takes on a few with a chance, some unraced and a couple with form. Lord Generous ran in a good race at Lingfield last season in which a few have come out and ran well since so that form looks solid but has had his problems. Global Flyer ran second in a poor race at Hexham and would be surprised if thats good enough. 235 Towcester 91 Bathwick Quest, 88 Aime Magnificent, 81 Garafeena The Irish horse Aime Magnificent won the other day but I dont think he had as much left in the tank as he tried to make out and will be hard pressed to win with the penalty. Bathwick Quest has patchy form but on his going days he's not bad. The market is headed by an Alan King debutant, his horses are not winning and will have to be decent to overcome these first time up. Henderson also runs a newcomer and the same applies to his runners at the moment. Shaylee ran a good race at MR behind Zafar and could be therabouts. 115 Wincanton 91 Champagne Dancer, 90 Ffos Las Diamond, 88 Seraphim Knight Interestin race and another Nicholls newcomer which heads the market, Shacklesborough is well regarded and should run well here in this company. Of those that have ran FfosLas Diamond was a touch disappointing last time but before that was fairly solid and Seraphim Knight has a really poor run last time to get over, again from the out of form King yard. Champagne Dancer ran well on his debut and then never really got into the race last time, maybe looking for a fair handicap mark? 410 Wincanton 90 Alesandro Mantegna, 88 Maggio, 88 Departed The head of the market is dominated by two well regarded debutants, Pepe Simo will be trying to win the trainers own race and Henry King from the Dartnall stable has finished in front of that one in a bumper. Big prices van be had for anything else and Alesandro Mantegna brings a fair level of form to the table, ran well in a handicap last time. Maggio and Departed have shown glimpses of ability and are worth noting. Bets; 135 Ain: Stormy Weather 3pts (4/6 Bet365 Bog) 355 Ain: Cranky Corner 2pts (7/4 WH Bog) 125 Tow: Silver Bay 1pt (9/4 PP Bog) 125 Tow: Lord Generous 1pt (4/1 PP Bog) 235 Tow: Shaylee 1pt place (10/3 PP) 115 Win: Shacklesbrough 1pt Lay (2.86 Betfair) 410 Win: No Bet

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up A day of near misses and one or two very disappointing runs, especially from Cranky Corner who faded some way out. Silver Bay and Lord Generous were beaten by a debutant and Alan King finally had a winner in the 235 at Towcester, his novice won with plenty in hand. The Nicholls yard also had a winner with Pepe Simo but his hot pot Shacklesbrough was a disappointment finishing very tired, nothing really all day caught the eye for the future, too many unknown quantities are running at the moment to get a form grip on the form, November should be useful if not profitable to build up the base form of the winter novices and will tread carefully for a while. Bets; 135 Ain: Stormy Weather 3pts (4/6 Bet365 Bog) 2nd 355 Ain: Cranky Corner 2pts (7/4 WH Bog)lost 125 Tow: Silver Bay 1pt (9/4 PP Bog) 3rd 125 Tow: Lord Generous 1pt (4/1 PP Bog) 2nd 235 Tow: Shaylee 1pt place (10/3 PP) lost 115 Win: Shacklesbrough 1pt Lay (2.86 Betfair) WON Stakes: 788.00pts Returns: 773.60pts Profit : -14.40 pts R.O.I. : -1.87% Top Rated Stakes : 240 pts Returns: 233.44 pts Profit: -6.56pts R.O.I : -2.7%

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 220 Haydock 90 Transporter, 83 Tae Kwon Do, 42 Tricky Trev 3 horse contest really with two horses with form taking on a 70+ rated flat debutant from the Easterby yard. Those with form are nothing special and are closely matched with their running behind Monsiuer Jordain, Transporter is also Tim Easterby's and went backwards after a fair debut, Tae Kwon Do ran a nice race when 4th at Wetherby and that looks the strongest race any of them have contested. 430 Haydock 95 Kack Handed, 88 Lap Of Honour, 87 Bruslini Nice race with lots to go on and Kack Handed brings some fair form from last season, the Daly yard is going well too so will be hard to beat here. Bruslini ran in a good heat at MRasen and was second behind Carrolls Cross, anything from the Hobbs stable has to be respected. Gunslinger ran well on his debut when second to the impressive Whenever, we cant be sure what that form amounts too at the moment but it was a promising debut. The Ferdy Murphy trained Lap Of Honour ran three quietish races last season and we can expect that on to improve this winter, may just need this though. Bets 430 Hay: Kack Handed 4pts (9/4 Bet365 Bog) 430 Hay: Bruslini 2pts (9/4 WH Bog) 220 Hay: Tae Kwon Do 1pt (11/8 PP Bog)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Bruslini got the better of long time leader Kack Handed who just couldnt shake off his rival, they both should pay there way, no doubting the Hobbs yard are bang in form at the moment. Gunslinger was very disappointing it has to be said. Lap Of Honour will win soon on this running. The other race was again won by a flat horse, surprised me that it stayed so well but the race may have been run to suit as they tanked off in front. Transporter is one to avoid but Tae Kwon Do may pick up a weak race in the north. Bets 430 Hay: Kack Handed 4pts (9/4 Bet365 Bog) 2nd 430 Hay: Bruslini 2pts (9/4 WH Bog) WON 220 Hay: Tae Kwon Do 1pt (11/8 PP Bog) 2nd Stakes: 795.00pts Returns: 780.10pts Profit : -14.90 pts R.O.I. : -1.87% Top Rated Stakes : 242 pts Returns: 233.44 pts Profit: -8.56pts R.O.I : -3.7%

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 320 Stratford 88 Calaficial, 87 Civil Servant, 75 RathrocksCourt Spoily by the absence of the Jonjo runners and now only 5 go to post. Civil Servant won well enough last time but was a poor race, Rathrockscourt won a seller but has the ability to run well in this sphere. Calaficial blazes off and tries to pinch his races and this track will suit him. Newcomer Ballybach is well fancied on his debut and ran in a grade 2 bumper at Ascot before finishing second at Kempton, connections will hope that he can beat this lot I imagine. 420 Stratford 89 Star Of Angels, 74 Casual Garcia, 52 Star Of Memory Terrible race and the hot fav Star Of Anfgels should make no mistake. 100 Newcastle 93 Monsiuer Jotdain, 91 Sydney Cove, 73 Hunting Magic Lots of unknowns here and the market should tell us where the newcomers stand, Shifting Gold and Dr Jameson look the two most likely. Of those that have run only two interest me, Monsiuer Jordain has had a few goes now and although is consistant he looks a bit one paced and would rather take a much bigger price about Sydney Cove who spoilt his run last time with a terrible blunder two out, had earlier ran the fav close on similar terms. 200 Newcastle 87 King In Waiting, 84 Weetfromthechaff, 77 Best Horse Wide open race with a few moderate hurdlers mixing it with bumpers, pointers and poor flat horses. Gala Casino Star was the best of the flat recruits and will be a poor price here. King In Waiting has been busy on the level and its a while since he finished a good second to Red Moloney, has also tried novice chasing since. Weetfromtehchaff ran a nice race at Carlisle but didnt seem to get home that day so will be interesting to see if he can finish his race here. Bets; 320 Str: Ballybach 2pts (13/8 Bet365 Bog) 320 Str: Rathrockscourt 1pt (15/2 VCBet Bog) 420 Str: Star Of Angels 10pts (1/5 PP Bog) 100 New: Sydney Cove 1pt EW (12/1 BlSq) 200 New: No Bet

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up A bit more like it today, Monsiuer Jordain finally won a race, battled on well to win going away, not sure the race was that good and will find it hard to defy a penalty. Sydney Cove was never travelling and trailed home seventh. The other race at Newcastle King In Waiting was well backed to win on his comeback and duly obliged, idled in front on the run in and nearly got caught close home, he may win again. At Stratford Rathrockscourt did us a favour by beating Civil Servant, much improved this one and as game as anything. The debutant was disappointing and another chance must be given before writing him off. Star Of Angels won at 1/5 in the last, nothing to be gained from the race really. Anyway a profit which is good on the long road back and on we go to Wetherby and Uttoxeter. Bets; 320 Str: Ballybach 2pts (13/8 Bet365 Bog) lost 320 Str: Rathrockscourt 1pt (15/2 VCBet Bog) WON 420 Str: Star Of Angels 10pts (1/5 PP Bog) WON 100 New: Sydney Cove 1pt EW (12/1 BlSq) lost Stakes: 810.00pts Returns: 800.60pts Profit : -9.40 pts R.O.I. : -1.17% Top Rated Stakes : 246 pts Returns: 242.69 pts Profit: -3.31pts R.O.I : -1.34%

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 105 Uttoxeter 92 Wester Ross, 90 Fassaroe, 86 Ermine Sea Many of these are having their debuts or coming back after a break but Wester Ross had his first run of the season at Huntingdon and ran a fine race behind Press The Button, since ran ok on the level and should be up to winning a race of this nature. Fassaroe and Ermine Sea have both been costly to follow over hurdles after showing a lot of promise. 140 Uttoxeter 101 Mauricetheathlete, 94 Tanks For That, 87 Daurica I think this is all about if you can trust the Henderson yard having Tanks For That straight enough for his debut, certainly has the form in the book and will be a shortish price. Mauricetheatlete ran a nice race last time staying on at the end, he may have been flattered by his finishing position but he's a big price here and may get into the frame again. Daurica carries a penalty for beating Starlight Air at Southwell, that race was ok and cant be written off. A few other dangers are lurking that havnt been over timber including one from the Jonjo yard. 205 Wetherby 94 Ifbutandwhy, 90 Banville, 86 Railway Park The fav Banville beat Rockys Choice in a driving finish at Stratford, the race itself wasnt any great shakes but is clearly progressing. Ifbutandwhy has a useful run last season to his name that would give him every chance but unseated at the first last week at Kelso so has questions to answer. Railway Park was second in a poor race last time and will have to improve a fair bit here. 315 Wetherby 96 Zepnove, 93 Marsool, 92 Mohanad A class 1 race and probably the most competative hurdle so far this season with all bar the debutant Regal Lyric having fair runs this season. Zepnove has won twice and recieves the fillys allowance and her battling qualities should see her in the frame. Marsool hasnt really been tested yet but you cant complain about the form. Mohanad is interesting, ran poorly on his debut and then beat Alazan easily at Kempton, he may have had the race run to suit as they went hard up front that day. Ravati and Trumpstoo have claims, the former won really well last time over this course while Trumpstoo beat Monsiuer Jordain last time also here and needs to step up on that. Bets; 105 Utt: Wester Ross 2pts (7/2 PP Bog) 140 Utt: No Bet 205 Weth: No Bet 315 Weth: Ravati 1pt (8/1 Lad Bog) 315 Weth: Zepnove 1pt (7/1 Bet365 Bog)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Another decent day with top rated horses winning at 7/2 and 8/1. Wester Ross won nicely, taking command in the home straight and never looked in trouble, surprising money for Ermine Sea, not often Henrietta Knight has one ready first time and in the end that was the case but sure to be ready next time. Fassaroe ran flat and will improve for a longer trip. Tanks for That was a major disappointment and you just cant limp on the Henderson team at the moment, the winner did it very well and looks a nice prospect. Mauricetheatlete ran another honest race and was second at a big price. Banville was also beaten a long way out, his Stratford form wasnt that good anyway but this wasnt his running, Ifbutandwhy was left to go off as the outsider of the party which baffled me but the 8/1 was a nice surprise, he can improve further too. In the listed race the form was turned upside down, Nicky Nutjob winning at 18/1, a messy race and I think Mohanad was unlucky and will gain compensation. Bets; 105 Utt: Wester Ross 2pts (7/2 PP Bog) Won 315 Weth: Ravati 1pt (8/1 Lad Bog) lost 315 Weth: Zepnove 1pt (7/1 Bet365 Bog) lost Stakes: 814.00pts Returns: 809.60pts Profit : -4.40 pts R.O.I. : -0.54% Top Rated Stakes : 250 pts Returns: 256.19 pts Profit: 6.19pts R.O.I : 2.47%

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 225 Ascot 100 William Hogarth, 93 Your The Top, 92 Pterodactyl Once again we have a Nicky Henderson hot pot in Your The Top, has sound form but isnt value in my mind and is best watched. William Hogarth ran the promising Jigsaw Man close last time and if that run was to be taken at face value then the weight recieved should swing it in his favour. Both Pterodactyl and Valento are no mugs and will take advantage if the front two are not at their best. 110 Wetherby 94 Pilgrims Lane, 94 Palmito, 93 Manor Park Interesting race with the very well regarded Manor Park trying to follow up his easy win here last time, no doubting the horses ability but not sure he should be so short in the market. Palmito won nicely at Ffos Las, didnt beat all that much but did it well. Pilgrims Lane has a strange profile for a novice as he has had a go at fences already, his hurdle is not that bad and is a big price here. The Irish have Skylancer going for the hattrick, did well to win under a penalty last time and is clearly improving. Bets; 225 As: William Hogarth 2pts (13/8 Bet365 Bog) 110 Weth: Pilgrims Lane 0.5pts EW (14/1 VCBet Bog)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Your The Top proved much too good for William Hogarth, no doubt he would have started odds on if the stable had been firing, he did say that this one didnt take much getting right. They pulled miles clear and nothing else looked promising. At Wetherby Manor Park was disappointing at 4/7, feel like I swerved one there, the jockey dismounted soon after so I hope nothing is wrong with the horse. Messy finish and Skylancer showed he hasnt stopped improving just yet. Bets; 225 As: William Hogarth 2pts (13/8 Bet365 Bog) 2nd 110 Weth: Pilgrims Lane 0.5pts EW (14/1 VCBet Bog) 4th Stakes: 817.00pts Returns: 809.60pts Profit : -7.40 pts R.O.I. : -0.54% Top Rated Stakes : 252 pts Returns: 256.19 pts Profit: 4.19pts R.O.I : 2.47%

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 110 Huntingdon 92 Aohna, 91 Seefin Mountain, 88 Playing With Fire Not many with current form here, Aohna looked disappointing last time but the form was held up by Palmito yesterday and the King horses are running better for a run so wouldnt discount just yet. Seefin Mountain ran well last season but last time was bogged down in the heavy ground, has had a good break and if he can reproduce his earlier form he wont be far away in this company. Playing With Fire can reach the frame and Tom George has a newcomer who could be dangerous. 220 Huntingdon 90 Saddlers Star, 87 Mission Control, 64 Jetlag Concerns just three here with Mission Control and Saddlers Star represnting good form and Arkose making his debut for the Sherwood stable. Mission Control carries a whopping 12st5lbs for all his wins but still must have a chance, his second in a handicap last time was a good run too. Saddlers Star has been a bit disappointing and proving very difficult to win with, he'll be there at the last but not sure I want to be on him. 100 Carlisle 89 Frankie Anson, 89 Easter Queen, 88 Turtle Spirit This looks an average race with modest form put up by a few of these. The favourite is a McCain first time out over hurdles horse and must be respected. Frankie Anson just shades those that have ran. Easter Queen and Turtle Spirit are massive prices and wouldnt be surprised if either of them ran well. Bets; 110 Hunt: Seefin Mountain 2pts (2/1 PP Bog) 220 ***: No Bet 100 Car: No Bet

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Getting frustrating this, top rated Aohna won at 4/1 and was always travelling the best, just pushed out on the run in. The experts reckon Seefin Mountain doesnt stay but i'd like to see another run before jumping to conclusions. Newcomer Arkose won the battle with Mission Control and the dissapointing Saddlers Star, this was a good effort by the front two though. The race up at Carlisle was dominated by the front two from some way out and Going Wrong put in a useful effort in soft conditions. 110 Hunt: Seefin Mountain 2pts (2/1 PP Bog) 3rd Stakes: 819.00pts Returns: 809.60pts Profit : -9.40 pts R.O.I. : -1.02% Top Rated Stakes : 255 pts Returns: 261.19 pts Profit: 6.19pts R.O.I : 2.42%

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 1250 Kempton 92 Slip, 88 Departed, 81 Hellfire Club Slip ran well to win on his debut at Stratford, he finished full of running and this being a similar track should again go well under a penalty. Of the newcomers El Distintivo from the Venetia Williams yard looks the best. Hellfire Club is fancied to step up and Departed is a big price and could reach a place. 120 Kempton : No Ratings 110 Plumpton 93 Rileyev, 90 Coin Of The Realm, 77 Geoffdaw Just three with form and Rileyev comes out best after his good run at Aintree when holding Shiwawa right until close home. Shiwawa was in great form at the time so the run was even better than it looked at the time, had a break since and the stable not really firing just yet. Coin Of The Realm was second to Thumbs Up last time over hurdles, went on to win on the flat in June and then has ran a couple of below average races since, this type of race is definitely within his compass. Geoffdaw looks a bit one paced but could run well at around 25/1. 145 Plumpton 95 Gan On, 92 Love Of Tara, 88 Knar Mardy Think this could be a straight fight between previous winner Love Of Tara and promising sort from last season in Gan On. The former stepped up to win at Exeter, is was a decent race and always travelled well on the outside. Gan On was second to a good type in Cool Friend, that form gives her every chance here if straight forward enough after the break. Hendersons Knar Mardy needed the run last time and may improve. 255 Plumpton 83 Troubletimestwo, 78 Mr Deal, 75 Which Of The Wave A novice claiming hurdle here and Hectors House is fav, dont ask me why, I see no reason to justify it except that he's from the Evan Williams stable and he's gave him a chance at the weights. Others in the race have much better form, Troubletimestwo has ran well on all three outings this season finishing behind Alazan and Zepnove recently. Mr Deal looks like he could improve too and isnt without a chance here. Bets; 1250 Kem: Slip 4pts (11/10 Bet365 Bog) 110 Plum: Coin Of The Realm 2pts (5/2 PP Bog) 110 Plum: Rileyev 2pts (9/4 PP Bog) 255 Plum: Troubletimestwo 2pts (11/4 PP Bog) 255 Plum: Mr Deal 1pt (4/1 Bet365 Bog)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Desperate results in the main although the top rated selections made a profit again with Gan On winning at 9/2, he ran on really well and looks like he could defy a penalty. Troubletimestwo was unlucky, hampered by Hectors House at the last and went down by a head, that would have rescued the day. Slip was most disappointing at Kempton, well beaten and no excuses apparantly. Rileyev was also well below par and Venetia has had a few setbacks now and may need to tread carefully with her stable for a week or two. The winner looked a fair sort and could go on to better things. Bets; 1250 Kem: Slip 4pts (11/10 Bet365 Bog) 110 Plum: Coin Of The Realm 2pts (5/2 PP Bog)NR 110 Plum: Rileyev 2pts (9/4 PP Bog) 255 Plum: Troubletimestwo 2pts (11/4 PP Bog) 2nd 255 Plum: Mr Deal 1pt (4/1 Bet365 Bog) Stakes: 828.00pts Returns: 809.60pts Profit : -18.40 pts R.O.I. : -2.2% Top Rated Stakes : 259 pts Returns: 266.69 pts Profit: 7.69pts R.O.I : 2.96%

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 200 Exeter 82 Moleskin, 74 City Theatre, 71 Hopeful Start Trappy looking race with the betting dominated by two debutants from the Nicholls and Hoobs yards, personally wouldnt bet anything from Paul Nicholls first time over hurdles just yet. Of those that have ran City Theatre was a let down on his debut and can only improve, his stable mate Hopeful Start also needs to forget his last run. Moleskin comes out best, his form last season was not that bad and could find the frame. 230 Exeter 104 Royal Charm, 77 Robo, 61 Shaking Hands You dont have to be a brain surgeon to work out that Royal Charm is miles clear on hurdle form here, he will be very short indeed but cant be opposed. His second at Sandown was a really promising effort and even if he does need the run he should win here. Robo and Shaking Hands look to have a little ability and may fill the places. Bets 230 Ex: Royal Charm 10pts (4/11 PP Bog)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Better day all round with Moleskin leading all the way in the first to win at 5/1, the front two in the market both ran a bit flat which made the job easier. The runner up ran well for Charlie Mann but apart from that the race didnt look the greatest. Royal Charm won as he wanted, the sp was generous, no doubt the weakness following on from another poor debutant run in the first for the Nicholls yard. This one had experience a good level of form and likes soft ground and as I said even if he did need the run he should have beat these anyway. General Kutuzov ran with promise in second and pulled away from the others. Bets 230 Ex: Royal Charm 10pts (4/11 PP Bog) WON 4/9 Stakes: 838.00pts Returns: 824.04pts Profit : -13.96 pts R.O.I. : -1.16% Top Rated Stakes : 261 pts Returns: 274.13 pts Profit: 13.13pts R.O.I : 5.03%

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 305 Warwick 93 Paddy Live, 91 Lord Generous, 85 Holmwood Legend No superstars here and a few in with a shout over this extended trip. Lord Generous stepped up last time at Towcester, the fact that he came up the hill well enough suggests he wants a test of stamina. Holmwood Legend weakened close hom behind Sprosser and more is needed here while Son Histoire from the Hobbs yard has bits and peices of form last season but did have a few goes without winning. Henry Daly brings back Pantalaimon after a couple of years absence, if you knew he retained the ability and was fit he would be interesting. Paddy Live represents the best form for me, finished strongly at Bangor over a shorter trip and ran well before that over this trip and should be spot on now. 100 Chepstow 97 My Friend Sandy, 96 Song Sung Blue, 94 St Killians Run Wide open event and above average level of form represented. My Friend Sandy tops the ratings on his second over C/D but Jim Old does tend to leave a bit to work on first time out. Song Sung Blue was pulled up last time but that was a Grade 1 affair at Sandown, before that was very promising. St Killians Run was second at Wincanton and needs to improve a touch while Strategic Approach looked one paced at Exeter but at least he got round and can now build on that. Pearly Steps is interesting on his Sandown run and could run well at a fair price. 205 Chepstow 90 Lady Jinks, 85 Shali San, 79 Shalimyr This race is all about Manyriverstocross, a highly rated flat horse making his debut for Alan King over hurdles, looks the type to take to this and should be a warm order. Of those that have ran before Lady Jinks comes out best on her second over this track, massive price that day but didnt appear to be a fluke, the third was Shalimyr who made up lots of ground and should be closer today. Shali San has a fair level of form but will need to have come on to get involved here. Bets: 305 War: Paddy Live 1pt (4/1 PP Bog)

[detek]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Hi BH... Have been following this thread with interest. Just like to say I'm enjoying the write ups and have seen some good results..:ok Good start again today:clap Anyway, hope the thread continues through the season.. Thanks

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Thanks very much Detek, appreciated:ok The ratings are therabouts no question, maybe my judgement has been off course over the last month, sometimes you cant win, you ignore the debutants and they beat you, back them and they need the run. Think I should start believing in the ratings more, at least they are paying for my errors elsewhere! Seriously thinking of applying the ratings to some handicaps but the time is the issue here which is why i selected just one type of race to start with, lots of unknowns though in the novice section which is whats beating me at the minute, i'll plough on though and hope to get the overall thing in profit. Thanks again, BH

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Manyriverstocross was impressive on his debut, quickening up between the last two and winning easily from Shalamyr and Lady Jinks who both ran well enough. The winner should go on now and will be better on a sounder surface. The top three in the ratings filled the frame in the first at Warwick, Lord Generous was given a positive ride by AP and that sorted them out on the final circuit. Paddy Live was the only one to come out of the pack but never got in a blow. San Histoire was disappointing again and the Daly horse ran ok after 2 years off. The other race My Freind Sandy won at 5/1 from Song Sung Blue, the winner looked beat on the home turn so was a really game effort here, I reckon it was a decent race for this level and a few will come out and win, those like Pearly Steps, Strategic Approach, St Killians Run and the unlucky second should all be interesting next time. Bets: 305 War: Paddy Live 1pt (4/1 PP Bog) 2nd Stakes: 839.00pts Returns: 824.04pts Profit : -14.96 pts R.O.I. : -1.76% Top Rated Stakes : 264 pts Returns: 280.13 pts Profit: 16.13pts R.O.I : 6.1%

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 120 Haydock 91 Tuillietudlem, 87 Riptide, 83 Beidh Tine Anseo Soft ground here which is a worry for the top two, Tillitudlem keeps on improving though and is as genuine as they come. Riptide won easily before his second to Barizan which is no disaster and the local trainer has booked AP here, sure to be therabouts. Beidh Tine Anseo was well touted at Perth but was a shade disappointing, you would have to think he his better than that so any improvement puts hin bang there. Debutant Kudu Country from the Tate yard could be dangerous, he was rated 70 on the level. 340 Haydock : Should go to a newcomer, those with experience are poor and not rated good enough. 100 Towcester: No ratings Bets; 120 Hay: Riptide 2pts (13/8 PP Bog)