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BillyHills

NH Novice Hurdlers

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In the new year resolution thread we did I mentioned I wanted to start my own ratings for a specialised type of racing for the new jump season. I did this a few years ago and gave up due to lack of time but things have changed and the input is far easier and with the help of the new RP facility its up and running. The main reason I wanted to do this is to give me a focus during the summer jump season as I dont bet on the flat much. I have decided to concentrate on Novice races, primarily hurdlers but will include Chases when I see fit. It was going to be tested further but pleasing results so far have brought it forward. The ratings are heavily based on Class, something I believe counts a lot in these races, Grade of race and Course have a lot to say in my calculations. Extra points are awarded for different things, I watch every race and hopefully race reading experience over the years will tell me that I can believe my eyes and convert that into the rating figure. As all Ratings followers will know its not about betting the top rated horses blindly, that soon leads to the poor house, but how you can interpret the ratings on the race at hand and deciding if a certain horse is likely to reproduce its best in those conditions. I intend to review each Novice Hurdle and some Chases when they are run throughout the summer months, I will state the top rated horses and also what I think will run well and suggested selection(s). As its a rule on the PL (not mine!) to keep profit and loss figures in individual threads I will use just level stakes,I think you will know by my review whether I fancy one more than another, I will also keep a check on how the top rated ones perform stats wise to a £1 stake. BH

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Sunday 10th May 3 NH meetings to kick us off and although no novices at Southwell we have one at Plumpton and two at Uttoxeter to look at. Any bets are on a scale of 0-10pts. 240 Plumpton 106 Wade Farm Billy, 96 Rampant Ronnie, 77 Miss Cruisecontrol Wade Farm Billy stands out here and should be a short price to open his account after some decent placed efforts (7/4 in RP??). Doubts about his stamina have been raised but in this class on this ground he will get away with it. Plenty of unknowns in the race but will have to be smart first time out to upset the fav. Rampant Ronnie disappointed last time but ran well the time before and could bounce back. 200 Uttoxeter 109 Factotum, 108 China Gold, 103 Monterrico One thing you get to know about Novices if you watch them closely and thats you realise how hard it is carry a penalty to victory, China Gold and Monterrico may find that out here, they have the best form on offer but the 7lb Factotum recieves could just tip the balance. Should be quite close though and Risk could run well at a bigger price. 230 Uttoxeter 111 Jimbatai, 111 Khumbu, 102 Wolf Moon Dont like the look of this race really, 3 miles is unknown for nearly all of the runners. Allonby Bay and Wolf Moon head the market, the former was beaten miles last time out at Newbury and the latter won a poor race at Towcester over 2 miles for which he carries a penalty. He at least has ran over the trip in a bumper over in Ireland. Jimbatai ran ok on his debut for Tim Vaughan over 2m6f but finished very tired that day, may have needed the run? Khumbu achieved his rating last year and ran average in a handicap since. Bets;(Prices will be added if taken otherwise SP) 240 Plumpton: Wade Farm Billy 7pts Win 240 Plumpton: Rampant Ronnie 1pt Win 200 Uttoxeter: Risk 1pt E/W

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Wade Farm Billy was a disappointment, raced wide and hung right all the way up the home straight, doesnt look straightforward and the stamina doubts maybe right, it left the race open for Rampant Ronnie who came back to his best but beat nothing really. In the 2.00 top rated Factotum won but was a very skinny price and Risk stayed on to snatch third place for EW money, didnt expect 16's but all the help is appreciated. The 2.30 at Uttoxeter was fought out by the top four, i suspect Jimbatai doesnt stay 3 miles, Khumbu ran on well and would have been closer but for clouting the last the winner did well to deliver with a penalty but can be opposed if taking on anything above average and may have to go handicapping now. Results 240 Plumpton: Wade Farm Billy 7pts Win Lost 240 Plumpton: Rampant Ronnie 1pt Win Won 5/1 200 Uttoxeter: Risk 1pt E/W 3rd 16/1 Stakes: 10pts Returns: 7.20pts Loss : 2.80pts Top Rated Selections Stakes : 3pts Returns: 1.67pts Loss : 1.33pts BH

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 6.00 Towcester 114 Baron Breeze, 104 Upham Atom, 101 Right Option Just the one race today and not very satisfactory from a ratings point of view, the top rated horse is from Ireland and sometimes can be tricky equating the form. Baron Breeze looks like being odds on too but his 4th at Down Royal which was a £5k race does look better than the english form on offer. No bet

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Baron Breeze fell when leading and suffered a bad injury, far too early to say how the race would have panned out but the sceond and third fav ran below their marks leaving chaser Come Out Firing to win the race. Pretty pleased to have left the race alone. Top Rated Stats Stakes : 4pts Returns : 1.67pts Loss : 2.33pts

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009

Round Up Baron Breeze fell when leading and suffered a bad injury, far too early to say how the race would have panned out but the sceond and third fav ran below their marks leaving chaser Come Out Firing to win the race. Pretty pleased to have left the race alone. Top Rated Stats Stakes : 4pts Returns : 1.67pts Loss : 2.33pts
Its a thing people never take into account with chasing, ''falling'' or being brung down. I have a good interest in this also BH the flat is just not my game, am a fish out of water just now.

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Ok, two races at Newton Abbot today; 6.00 105 Candle, 103 Call Me A Legend, 80 Ambrose Princess Call Me A Legend obviously has the experience but has to conceed a stone to once useful flat horse Candle. On a line through Sylroy the horse that beat Candle last time actually gives the fav plenty in hand, its a close call for me. Ambrose Princess should improve for the better ground and wont be a million miles away. 7.30 105 Dais Return, 103 Pilgrims Lane, 97 Bolton Hall Dais Return is favourite here and has the most solid form, has improved the last twice for better ground and is a real battler. The two dangers in the market have questions to answer and look poor value due to the connections. The Nicholls horse Pilgrims Lane won a soft race and last time was beaten after a circuit. The McCoy mount Bolton Hall has been handicapping and steps up in trip, seems to me to have had his chance and looks moderate. Of the rags, Norwest and Merry Terry may run well a big prices. Bets 600 NA: Candle to Place (1.40 BF) 10pts 730 NA: Dais Return (2.60 BF) 2pts

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up In the 6.00 I got lucky with the place bet on Candle, he never jumped a hurdle and did well to get round. The winner always looked an improver and different tactics made the difference. The fav will find it hard carrying the penalties even at this time of year. I did say the other day these penalties are bigger than you think. The 7.30 went to plan, Dias Return led all the way, Bolton Hall looks exposed and Pligrims Way is over rated and i'll be re-assessing him. The third Norwest ran well at decent odds and may nick a poor race. Results 600 NA: Candle to Place (1.40 BF) 10pts 3rd +3.80 730 NA: Dais Return (2.60 BF) 2pts WON +2.94 Includes 5% Comm. Stakes: 22pts Returns: 25.94pts Profit : 3.94pts Top Rated SP to a £1 stake Stakes: 6pts Returns: 3.92pts BH Loss: -2.08pts

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009

Round Up In the 6.00 I got lucky with the place bet on Candle, he never jumped a hurdle and did well to get round. The winner always looked an improver and different tactics made the difference. The fav will find it hard carrying the penalties even at this time of year. I did say the other day these penalties are bigger than you think. The 7.30 went to plan, Dias Return led all the way, Bolton Hall looks exposed and Pligrims Way is over rated and i'll be re-assessing him. The third Norwest ran well at decent odds and may nick a poor race. Results 600 NA: Candle to Place (1.40 BF) 10pts 3rd +3.80 730 NA: Dais Return (2.60 BF) 2pts WON +2.94 Includes 5% Comm. Stakes: 22pts Returns: 25.94pts Profit : 3.94pts Top Rated SP to a £1 stake Stakes: 6pts Returns: 3.92pts BH Loss: -2.08pts
Nice returns on your 2 bets today Graham, best of luck with this thread - sure it will do grand mate!! :ok

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Wed 13th May Supposed to the flat season and we have three jump meetings, race planning has always been mind boggling to me. 220 Exeter 112 Lindy Lou, 99 Je Ne Sais Plus, 98 Sparkling Montjeu This looks a very good opportunity for the fav Lindy Lou, the only doubt is that she pulls hard and hasnt quite got home so far. AP in the saddle today and looks ready to win. Je Ne Sais Plus and Vics World look the dangers as I dont think the top one can win under a penalty. 200 Fontwell 112 Balthzar King, 109 Quantique, 106 Timons Present I find this race quite competative despite Balthazar King being very short in the betting, he's had a few chances now and still yet to win. I think the three mares at the bottom plus Ashmolian and Creagh Bay all have improvement in them and wouldnt like to take a short price about anything. 700 Perth 111 Wikaala, 103 Casual Affair, 69 Alans Legacy Awful race, 16 runners and only a few with any hurdles form, the fav has Irish form which looks good enough here with the only danger Casual Affair and not a race to get too involved with. Bets 220 Exeter: Lindy Lou 8pts (8/15 Sporting Bet) BH

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up The first thing to say is obviously a poor day, but like most things we hope to learn as we go on and the two bets that have been costly so far are very similar, on both occaisons I questioned their stamina beforehand yet still backed them, tells me that no matter how highly they may be rated they still have to get home to deliver and although people think you only need stamina in soft ground, because of the quicker pace they need to get home just as much on firm ground. Anyway, not all doom and gloom, take out Lindy Lou and the next two were first and second. Did well to avoid the fav in the next race and actually put the 20/1 winner Newsman up in the DHRC today and the last race was as unpredictable as I thought. Results 220 Exeter: Lindy Lou 8pts (8/15 Sporting Bet) Lost Stakes: 30pts Returns: 25.94pts Loss : (4.06)pts Top Rated Stakes : 9pts Returns: 3.92 Loss : (5.08) pts

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Moved this to the systems sections as the the races are decided by a stategy and the selections by way of points scoring, therefore I suppose its a system. Anyway on to today, two races to concentrate on, both small fields. 810 Ludlow 108 Kings Alchemist, 103 Horseford Hill, 96 Prince Of Gdansk Looks a two horse race and they make Horseford Hill the favourite but I think its overall form is nothing special and reckon Kings Alchemist is still improving and wants this type of trip. He had been knocking on the door a couple of times before being presented with the race last time when the clear leader came down, he beat the others fair and square and the Henderson horse scraped home at Towcester and may want 3 miles to show his best. 200 Perth 109 Present Gesture, 103 Divers, 100 Mr Woods Present Gesture comes over from Ireland once again and you cant ignore his defeat of Cobai and the a good run a £17k race at Cheltenham. Divers has had some decent chances lately and may find one too good once again. Bets 200 Perth: Present Gesture 2pts (7/4 Hills) 810 Ludlow: Kings Alchemist 4pts (6/4 Lads)

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Couldnt have got it more wrong today really, both selections travelled very well and neither found anything once push to came to shove. Never mind early days yet. 200 Perth: Present Gesture 2pts (7/4 Hills) Lost 810 Ludlow: Kings Alchemist 4pts (6/4 Lads) Lost Stakes: 36pts Returns: 25.94pts Loss : (10.06)pts Top Rated Stakes : 11pts Returns: 3.92 Loss : (7.08) pts

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 6.30 Aintree 103 Thumbs Up, 96 Thoroughly Red, 86 Shiwawa Interesting race, we have the proven form of the odds on fav Thumbs Up against two horses in Shiwawa and Coin Of The Realm who you feel will improve a lot on what they have shown so far. The outsider Thoroughly Red seems to have been ignored in the betting and could run well at a big price. The ground has gone Gd/Sft which wont inconvenience the fav so looks the solid option. Bet Thumbs Up 5pts (1/2 bet365 BOG)

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Well the form worked out for a change with Thumbs Up winning easily at a terrific price too! They backed Coin Of The Realm all day long but looks a non stayer to me. Shawiwa looks like the one to take out the race, ran on nicely and jumped better today. Bet Thumbs Up 5pts (1/2 bet365 BOG) Won 8/11 Stakes: 41pts Returns: 34.58pts Loss : (6.42)pts Top Rated Stakes : 12pts Returns: 5.65 pts Loss : (6.35) pts

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Sat 16th May Two races to sort out and with the going changing everywhere its not ideal. 355 Bangor 107 Grasscutter, 103 Shut The Bar, (McMurraugh was TR but now NR) With the withdrawal of probable fav McMurraugh this leaves the race to Shut The Bar who ran well on his debut at Exeter finishing third. Had won two bumpers previously one on Gd/Sft so the rain shouldnt be a problem. The main danger is from the McCain yard who always has winners here but this one is coming back after missing the winter ground only to find its still here! Could need the run and dislike the ground so has to be opposed. Jonjo's horse is unraced and third fav and could be dangerous. 620 Uttoxeter 105 Erzen, 99 Springtree, 96 Pasdelou The Henderson/McCoy horse Erzen is long odds on and has the best form by a fair way. Pasdelou should be fitter this time and could lead for a long way and once fair flat performer Planetarium could be anything. Of the outsiders Springtree and Adare may run well at bigger prices. Bets 355 Bangor: Shut The Bar 3pts (15/8 Bet365 BOG) 355 Bangor: Grasscutter 1pt (5/2 Bet365 BOG) 620 Uttox: Pasdelou 2pts to place (2.04 BF)

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Shut The Bar proved too good for Grasscutter, remains to be seen whether the second just needed it but is becoming frustrating now. Erzen won at Uttoxeter easily enough but the form doesnt look strong. Pasdelou ran poorly after leading, faded too far out to be his true form. Bets 355 Bangor: Shut The Bar 3pts (15/8 Bet365 BOG) Won 355 Bangor: Grasscutter 1pt (5/2 Bet365 BOG) 2nd 620 Uttox: Pasdelou 2pts to place (2.04 BF) Lost Stakes: 47pts Returns: 43.21pts Loss : (3.79)pts Top Rated Stakes : 14pts Returns: 7.09 pts Loss : (6.91) pts

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 350 Fakenham 103 Art Trend, 98 Tri Nations, 98 Dr Brass The Nicholls horse and probable fav Art Trend needs to put an awful run last time behind him, no apparant excuse but does like firm ground so thats in his favour. Both Tri Natiions and Dr Brass look likely to improve on their last runs and could pose a threat to the fav. Martins Friend is not without hope either. 200 Market Rasen 103 Night Orbit, 102 Dinarius Lots of unproven horses here and only two with any form over hurdles, not much to choose between them either, Dinarius ran in a grade 1 at Aintree last time and ran Silk Hall close so is marginally preferred. 400 Market Rasen 111 Pokanoket, 103 Springfiled Raki, 93 Quenzo Conti Slight worry about the trip for Pokanoket, didnt last home when tried at 2m4f but has since put in a good display at 2m and in recipt of a stone could worry the short priced fav Springfiled Raki who won a decent race over C/D last time. Will look at the prices and any NR's before deciding on any bets.

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 In the 350 at Fakenham Art Trend has drifted all morning and Tri Nations will go off very short, Martins Friend looks to be improving and at 6/1 looks a solid EW bet. At Market Rasen Night Orbit is now fav after some NR's, no value here and cant find an angle on the 4.00. Springfield Raki is too short at odds on and Pokanoket is too short to back for a place so will leave alone. Bets: 350 Fakenham: Martins Friend 1pt EW (6/1 Betfred)

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