NH Novice Hurdlers

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Need to get things done early as no time tomorrow and plenty of jump racing, todays races went to form somewhat with Risk leading all the way and a brilliant ride by AP holding off Williams Wishes. Would have been interesting if Dots Delight had not fallen when travelling well three out. In the 3yo race Riptide won very easily by 25l, none of the newcomers showed much promise and will find it difficult this season. Bets; 215 Fon: Riptide 5pts (15/8 PP Bog) Won 2/1 215 Fon: Ravine Rose 1pt (10/1 Bet365 Bog) lost Stakes: 684.00pts Returns: 687.92pts Profit : 3.92 pts R.O.I. : 0.57% Top Rated Stakes : 184 pts Returns: 184.32 pts Profit: 0.32pts R.O.I : 0.17%

[Spooner]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Nice winner BH. :clap Busy day for you tomorrow with three NH meetings!! :eek

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Cheers Spooner mate:ok 320 Huntingdon 87 Marsool, 77 Takelli, 64 Richo Marsool should be the short priced fav here after his easy win at N.Abbot, ran well before that too and the form looks solid. Takelli was well behind on his debut and then won a claimer, this is tougher. Nothing else looks good enough. 425 Huntingdon 93 Press The Button, 86 Tayarat, 84 Amwell Brave Lovely race with plenty of form on offer and the fav Press The Button having the profile of a horse who could make his mark over timber. Really like the form over C/D when he won with authority and has Tayarat to beat, he didnt look straight forward when beating Rockys Choice and the form has been let down since. Amwell Brave has form from a while back and could run on into a place. 235 Uttoxeter 89 Psychological, 78 Jim Tango, 71 Feel The Force Only modest form here and wont atke much winning and the debutant Moorlands Teri could take all the beating if atking to hurdles, it wont be much of a pace so should be given time to warm up. Psychological has the best form but is only moderate. 305 Uttoxeter 81 Aather, 81 Timocracy, 81 Gamesters Lady Another very average affair and nothing to choose between a few of them. Aather ran a while a go at Doncaster in a decent race so this is a step down in class as long as he doesnt need it. Timocracy ran awful last week and may have had his confidence affected when falling before that, he could bounce back. Gamesters Lady was well behind when last seen but it was a fair race. The one that will attract money is Alan Kings newcomer Seventh Cavalry, rated 65 on the flat and could be anything. 405 Kelso 92 Monsieur Jordain, 91 Strevelyn, 90 Transporter Tight looking race with a few chances, Monsieur Jordain ran well at Perth and has progressed since his debut, he will be therabouts and Berriedale was 10l further back in that Perth race and needs to improve to get involved under a penalty. Transporter also finished behind MJ on his debut while Stravelyn was placed in a very poor race at Sedgefield which Berriedale won. Of the newcomers K'Gari and New Tricks look the best. Bets; 320 Hun: Marsool 5pts (4/9 PP Bog) 425 Hun: Press The Button 5pts (1/2 Bet365 Bog) 405 Kel: Monsieur Jordain 1pt (3/1 Bet365 Bog) Prices In Morning

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Marsool looked beaten on the home turn but battled on well and used his experience to get home, this wasnt as impressive as before but maybe the tarck was a bit sharp, anyhow will do well to carry a double penalty next time. The runner Dark Oasis up will improve and worth noting. Press The Button was ever so impressive and must be the leading novice around at the moment, his jumping was better too so maybe more to come, not sure what they do with now though? Moorlands Teri was not that impressive when winning a very poor opener at Uttoxeter, cant take anything out of the race. Seventh Cavalry won the other race there finally waring down long time leader Aather, they both can come on for the run. At Kelso Monsuier Jordain ran well again but was outpointed on the run in by Knock Three Times, they all finished quite close in behind so probably wanst a very good race. Bets; 320 ***: Marsool 5pts (4/9 PP Bog) Won 8/13 425 ***: Press The Button 5pts (1/2 Bet365 Bog) Won R4 15p 405 Kel: Monsieur Jordain 1pt (3/1 Bet365 Bog) 2nd Stakes: 695.00pts Returns: 703.12pts Profit : 8.12 pts R.O.I. : 1.17% Top Rated Stakes : 188 pts Returns: 187.27 pts Profit: -0.63pts R.O.I : -0.33%

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 350 Exeter 95 Jim Bobs Girl, 85 Lucky Dancer, 83 Bradford Boris A puzzle here between the top two in the market, odds on fav Jim Bobs Girl hasnt run over hurdles for quite a while and her wins have come over fences. A real stayer who needs a strong gallop which i'm sure she will get here. Lucky Dancer was impressive on his debut but ran poorly last time, if bouncing back could win this and looks the value. 420 Exeter 96 Cool Friend, 93 Penyfan Dawn, 90 Consulate The fav Cool Friend looks good in this grade, won well here in march and then ran a decent race at Aintree, the rivals here have all had plenty of chances and the possible problem could be the ground, she has done all her racing on softer conditions. Recieves the mares allowance and also the jockey takes another 3lbs off. Penyfan Dawn and Consulate are solid enough opponents and will run their races as usual while Mumbles Peir got the full AP treatment last time and might find the penalty just too much. Selling winner Rathscourt Rock needs to step up to get involved here. 330 Towcester 93 Dots Delight, 91 Pilgrims Lane, 90 Agente Romano A bit of a poser in the fact that Dots Delight fell the other day before the race really got going, she was travelling well and my thoughts are she would have been in the shake up, given that she is top rated on her previous run anyway she must go close recieving all the allowances. Pligrims Lane has been a little inconsistant and has been chasing the last twice, switched from the Nicholls yard so questions to answer. Agente Romano won at last at Plumpton but made hard work of it, needs to be produced on the run in and looks a quirky sort, the win however was deserved as the form is very solid. One at bigger odds is Pipers Song, the sixth at Ffos Las was decent form and is no 20/1 shot. Tim Vaughan runs a bumper horse which could be dangerous on her hurdles debut but will have to be fairly sharp to win here first time out. Bets; 350 Exe: Lucky Dancer 1pt (10/3 Betfred) 420 Exe: Cool Friend 5pts (5/4 WHill Bog) 330 Tow: Dots Delight 1pt (7/2 PP Bog)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up At Towcester the debutant Hayes Princess was a game winner after leading for much of the way, thats not easy at this track and held off Pilgrims Lane who had every chance. Dots Delight made up a lot of ground over the last two flights and was closing on the run in. Agente Romano was one paced and the penalty stopped him. Over at Exeter we couldnt see much due to the fog, Lucky Dancer was going well when falling two according to reports, not sure if we were unlucky or not but the winner Jim Bobs Girl was under the cosh at the time. Cool Friend won by a head but the trainer seemed to think it was comfortable enough, she's off chasing now as her novice tag ends on Oct 31st. Bets; 350 Exe: Lucky Dancer 1pt (10/3 Betfred) lost 420 Exe: Cool Friend 5pts (5/4 WHill Bog) Won R4 15p 330 Tow: Dots Delight 1pt (7/2 PP Bog) lost Stakes: 702.00pts Returns: 713.43pts Profit : 11.43 pts R.O.I. : 1.62% Top Rated Stakes : 191 pts Returns: 190.85 pts Profit: -0.15pts R.O.I : -0.07%

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 225 Wincanton 92 Alazan, 89 Troubletimestwo Only a couple of horses with form and the second that Alazan ran at Perth was a pleasing effort behind Tillietudlem who had good form in the book previous to that. Troubletimestwo has had three tries over hurdles now and a point can be made that he has improved each run. You would have to think Alazan is the more progressive at this stage and will be hard to beat. 345 Worcester 91 Champagne Dancer, 86 King Of Castille, 50 Joes A Boy A couple of divisions of 'National Hunt' Novice hurdles which include pointers and bumpers and very limited form. Champagne Dancer ran well in a weak race here behind Fred Kennet, he finished well that day. King Of Castille ran two quite promising races in the summer and wears blinkers here so could improve. Joes A Boy is from the McCain stable and hasnt showed much yet but expect that one to come on too. The fav is the Twiston Davies bumper horse De Bansha Man who is obviously well thought of. 415 Worcester 89 Calaficial, 87 Rocky River Division two isnt any easier to fathom, Calaficial won at last using front running tactics, he could lead a long way here but has been disappointing before so it will be interesting to see how he runs today. Rocky River returns after a break, he ran in a much better race than this at Newbury and if fit will be the one to beat with form. A newcomer from the Jonjo yard Get Me Out of Here is well respected after winning a bumper race and will be a short price to open his account at the first try over timber. Bets; 225 Win: Alazan 5pts (2/5 Bet365 Bog)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Well Alizan won very easily despite making several mistakes, he had to lead them as there was no pace and this along with the blinkers probably lit him up and would much rather have a stronger pace to follow, anyway he got the job done and could be half decent. Nothing in behind looked progressive. At Worcester Calaficial set a suicide gallop as usual and was very tired and picked off by the fav Get Me Out Of Here who was very green indeed and looks to have plenty of scope. In the other division the fav De Bansha Man was pulled up such is the unknown about these debutants, the other recruit Sprosser went on to win quite well but with two rags close up the form doesnt look great. Champagen Dancer was well off the pace before making up some ground and handicaps will suit him later on. Bets; 225 Win: Alazan 5pts (2/5 Bet365 Bog) Won 4/9 Stakes: 707.00pts Returns: 720.65pts Profit : 13.65 pts R.O.I. : 1.93% Top Rated Stakes : 194 pts Returns: 192.29 pts Profit: -1.71pts R.O.I : -0.88%

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 200 Carlisle 111 McMurrough, 91 Aint She The Lady, 68 Weetfromthechaff You dont need to be an expert to know that McMurrough is a class above this lot on all know form, ran three times last season in two Class 1's and and a Class 2 and wasnt disgraced in any of them. Was put away for a second campaign and this looks like a confidence booster before going on to better things later on. Alvarado is a debutant from the Howard Johnson yard that ran in the big bumper race at Punchestown last season such was the promise he had shown when winning before that, has had temperament problems and may need this first run. The only other one with fair hurdle form is Aint She The Lady who stayed on well at Catterick back in December, an big improvement on that is needed here. Bet; 200 Car: McMurrough 5pts (4/7 Bet365 Bog)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up A slight surprise in that McMurrough got turned over but if you saw the race the fav was never really travelling and made one or two mistakes, didnt look fully wound up to me and the fact that his stablemate who is rated miles below him finished along side, there was talk of him going novice chasing so maybe this was just a prep for that? Anyway the winner did it ok on his debut although to me didnt look to be going that well round the home turn but can only improve. Bet; 200 Car: McMurrough 5pts (4/7 Bet365 Bog)2nd Stakes: 712.00pts Returns: 720.65pts Profit : 8.65 pts R.O.I. : 1.23% Top Rated Stakes : 195 pts Returns: 192.29 pts Profit: -2.71pts R.O.I : -1.3%

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Lots to get through today as we see the better horses appearing and three meetings. 250 Bangor 97 Pugilist, 91 Paddy Live, 80 Quianshan Leader Interesting race and another Jonjo debutant heads the market with City Theatre, won a race at Fontwell before running ok in the grade 2 bumper at Aintree, obviously the one to beat. Those with form, Pugilist looks the best, his fifth in a Kempton novice looking quite good in this race. 430 Bangor 88 Kingsben, 87 Shadow Dancer, 85 Mr Logistics Shadow Dancer look beat two out on his debut at MRasen but rallied well to win on the run in with Kingsben back in third, they are closely matched now at the weights but you would think Shadow Dancer would improve a fair bit on that and is odds on to follow up. One I quite like for the future is Mr Logistics and is not out of this. 155 Chepstow 101 Silver Point, 89 Stage Acclaim Lots of unkonowns in this race with only two horses with much experience and the market headed by a Nicholls/Walsh newcomer at poor value as per usual. Silver Point comes out best of the two hurdlers although has a below par run last time to get over. Stage Acclaim ran some good races last season in better company. 445 Chepstow 87 Fongoli, 77 Takelli Low level 3yo hurdle with only a few with experience, two of those have won races but to be honest both have doubts about their ways of running. Fongoli certainly hasnt looked straight forward but is preferred to Tikelli who won a claimer. 245 Hexham 84 Quivvy Bridge, 84 Josephine Malines, 80 Give A Little The ultra consistant Quivvy Bridge goes here with a triple penalty, not many novices manage that, you cant get away from her chances but a short price is not reccomended. Josephine Malines recieves a stone and has ran on the flat three times since the victory at Cartmel. The other Irish challenger Give A Little was a bit disappointing last time but on her Irish form has every chance. 425 Hexham A race full of debutants, a couple with form but very poor and will a shock if this doesnt go to one of the newcomers, a good race to watch for the future. Bet: 430 Bangor: Mr Logistics 1pt (8/1 Bet365 Bog)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Mr Logistics was pulled out so no bet but still an interesting race with Kingsben getting revenge over Shadow Dancer who is definitely thinking about the game. Of the other races Fongoli showed why we need to avoid backing him, very moody. Quivvy Bridge did really well to win with a triple penalty, the second Josephine Malines just about showed her form but will need a really soft race to win now. The first at Bangor was fought out between the three top rated with Qianshan Leader doing a quite impressive peice of front running and has improved no end from his debut. Bet: 430 Bangor: Mr Logistics 1pt (8/1 Bet365 Bog) Non Runner Stakes: 712.00pts Returns: 720.65pts Profit : 8.65 pts R.O.I. : 1.23% Top Rated Stakes : 200 pts Returns: 195.98 pts Profit: -4.02pts R.O.I : -2.01%

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 210 Ffos Las 87 Aohna, 76 A Haon A Do, 66 Spangle Island Has to be said a few of the King runners havnt been spot on as yet so a chance has to be taken with Aohana who looks a cut above these, his run at Stratford was very promising as she pulled hard and still finished the race off. The Irish challenger needs to put a poor run last time behind her. 320 Ffos Las 92 Mac Halen, 87 Balthazar King, 82 Francly Flora Balthazar King has had many chances before now and if he cant win this then Mr Hobbs has a problem on his hands. A distant second last time behind a useful sort was a satisfactory seasonal debut but must go on now. Mac Halen is well in on some form but he was well beaten when falling last time and has been off a while. Uffa Fox ran ok in a handicap last time and could be improving enough to be the danger. Bets; 210 FLas: Aohna 3pts (11/8 VCBet Bog)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Balthazars King finally got his head in front in a disappointing race for many of his market rivals, i'm sure this on will go handicapping now as they wont be many easy targets to aim at from now on. Nothing really came out of the race. The other race was a funny one, Aohna was backed off the boards down to 4/7 yet drifted like a barge on the exchanges and was around Evens in running, the horse nevre looked liked winning and i'm treading weary of the King stable for a week or two. The winner did it well and was still a bit novicey so could improive a bit more. Bets; 210 FLas: Aohna 3pts (11/8 VCBet Bog)Lost Stakes: 715.00pts Returns: 720.65pts Profit : 5.65 pts R.O.I. : 0.79% Top Rated Stakes : 202 pts Returns: 195.98 pts Profit: -6.02pts R.O.I : -3.01%

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Ok from now on we pretty much have jump racing everyday so its time to put all the practice into reality and try and get the strategy and staking right. I have decided to tweak the ratings just a touch to try and put some distance between winners of similar types of races, at the moment nearly all the novice races have been Class 4's on Grade 3/4 tracks therefore a majority of the winners have been closely rated, I dont like this and as now we will be seeing races at Cheltenham, Newbury etc..I want some more input and will be using a scale within the ratings based on my own thinking of how strong the race was, something i always wanted to do but it takes time to get a real feel for the level of form and the summer has helped enormously with that. The staking has been a bit all over the place and should have performed better really with the amount of winners backed, a lot of winners have been missed too by not backing in certain races, take Balthazars King for example yesterday! I have decided to give a positive vote for a horse in every race I rate, the stakes will be on a scale of 1-5, 1 being a token selection, 5 being a nap, some races will carry more than one selection if the prices allow. With the figures being about level its a good time to start this from now on. Should be fun, Huntingdon tomorrow kicks us off. BH

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 330 Huntingdon 93 Penyfan Dawn, 84 Mid Valley, 82 Viva Colonia Penyfan Dawn has had stacks of chances but his best run was arguably here in these conditions behind Another Trump, his last run was not too bad either when second to Williams Wishes and may finally get a win against some very modest opposition. Charlie Mann who isnt having a great time of it runs Viva Colonia who won back in May at Fontwell, the race was a poor one and you have to worry about the absence. Mid Valley is the only other one with form and his 4th behind Press The Button wasnt a bad effort but last time was beaten along way behind Tarayat so didnt really progress. Nick Gifford gives a debut to Casual Garcia who was rated in the high 60's on the flat and could be dangerous. Bet: Penyfan Dawn 1pt (7/4 VCBet Bog)

[mowgli77]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 How have you found doing your own ratings and is it very time consuming? It's something I've considered for the jumps season but don't know if I would have the time needed to keep it up to date etc.

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 *Phil, normally it would be too much to do to be honest but by just selecting one type of race I find it fairly easy especially with the RPost ratings section which enables me to work out a race in seconds. Round Up Well Penyfan Dawn beat those with form but still found one to beat him and is very frustrating, the race looked very weak and wont be taking anything out of the race. Bet: Penyfan Dawn 1pt (7/4 VCBet Bog)2nd Stakes: 716.00pts Returns: 720.65pts Profit : 4.65 pts R.O.I. : 0.64% Top Rated Stakes : 203 pts Returns: 195.98 pts Profit: -7.02pts R.O.I : -3.5%

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Cant believe Ive just lost the whole post I have been writing this morning, 7 races to plough through too, i'll just give the top rated and the selections:@ Uttoxeter 220 Addison De Witt 87, Zepnove 87, Choisr Breeze 84 250 No Ratings 325 Alfie Spinner 92, Civil Servant 92, Playing With Fire 85 Wetherby 210 Ravati 93, Sydney Cove 91, Classic Contours 87 420 No Ratings 525 Manor Park 94, Fell Pack 78, Whispering Death 74 555 Monsieur Jordain 93, Miss Gabboa 90, Avitus 85 Bets; Utt 220: Addison De Witt 2pts (85/40 VCBet Bog) Utt 325: Alfie Spinner 1pt (11/4 VCBet Bog) Wet 210: Sydney Cove 1pt EW (8/1 Bet365 Bog) Wet 210: Classic Contours 3pts (Evens PP Bog) Wet 525: Manor Park 5pts (8/11 Bet365 Bog) Wet 555: Monsieur Jordain 1pt (4/1 WH Bog)

[StuSimmy]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 I understand fully what you mean about losing the whole post, twice when I was switching tabs by clicking a stupid yahoo toolbar button during my 14.30 Lingfield post I lost it when I was more than most the way through, was so annoying when I clicked to back to notice none of my post was there :(

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Mixed day with the ratings performing well with 4 winners either top or joint top. The selections themselves suffered one of those days with Addison De Witt going well when getting injured and Sydney Cove looking nailed on for a place at 12/1 when sprawling on landing two out, the nap Manor Park saved the day somewhat with a smooth victory just confirming the Irish form is a touch better at the moment. Others of note, Zepnove was very game in the first and gives the form a nice solid look. Civil Servant finally won but main rival Alfie Spinner ran a dreadful race so the jury is out on the strength of the race. Another disappointment was Classic Contours, never going well although Ravati was in top form and won easily. Bets; Utt 220: Addison De Witt 2pts (85/40 VCBet Bog) PU Utt 325: Alfie Spinner 1pt (11/4 VCBet Bog) lost Wet 210: Sydney Cove 1pt EW (8/1 Bet365 Bog) lost Wet 210: Classic Contours 3pts (Evens PP Bog) lost Wet 525: Manor Park 5pts (8/11 Bet365 Bog) Won Wet 555: Monsieur Jordain 1pt (4/1 WH Bog) 2nd Stakes: 730.00pts Returns: 729.28pts Profit : -0.72 pts R.O.I. : -0.09% Top Rated Stakes : 208 pts Returns: 205.93 pts Profit: -2.07pts R.O.I : -0.99%

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 220 Ludlow 88 Dots Delight, 87 Amie Magnificent, 87 Flutter Bye Quite a tight race this and another chance is given to Dots Delight, ran ok last time at Towcester making up late ground without looking like winning, this track is much different and should be able to lay handier this time. The Irish horse Amie Magnificent looks a shade lower class than some of those that have been coming over and Flutter Bye needs to improve for her break. Henderson runs a debutant which is obviously worth noting but I have a feeling his may need a run. 420 Ludlow 91 Nicky Nutjob, 90 Dark Oasis, 84 Leulayleulaylay 3yo hurdle in which half a dozen of them have run before, the hot pot however is a debutant Brett Vale who won at Newmarket last time and is rated well above any of the opposition on the flat, you would have to think it will win if it jumps ok. Of those with form Nicky Nutjob didnt seem to improve on his second run which is worrying and Dark Oasis might be a fair EW bet, his second to Marsool wasnt a bad effort. Leulahleulahlay is one to avoid, looks very temperamental to me. Bets; 220 Lud: Dots Delight 1pt (5/2 Bet365 Bog) 420 Lud: Brett Vale 2pts (11/8 Bet365 Bog)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up later; 440 Cheltenham 98 Barizan, 94 Forty Thirty, 94 Royal Max Quite fitting that these 4 have it themselves for the first 3yo race at Cheltenham this year, they have led the way and met before. Barizan was really impressive last time and cant be opposed really, he should make all with Royal Max and the other two will sit in and hope to come up the hill with a challenge, I fear Barizan will be clear by then. 550 Cheltenham 89 Reland, 87 William Hogarth, 81 Boo Hot pot The Jigsaw Man has been so impressive in his bumper races that you have to think he will be better than those who have the experience. The horse has gears and is an exciting recruit. Reland looks best of those with form, his second top Mesbah looks ok, William Hogarth could run well at a decent price too. Bets; 440 Ch: Barizan 3pts (1/3 Bet365 Bog) 550 Ch: The Jigsaw Man 2pts (5/4 Bet365 Bog)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Yesterday was a disappointment with debutant Brett Vale not taking to the winter game and beaten miles out, he may be given another chance but needs to learn fast. The winner Dark Oasis was a good winner and well backed to do so, 12/1 in the morning! In the other race once again the Irish form won the day, Aimie Magnificent won but I didnt think had much up his sleeve, Flutter Bye ran on well but Dots Delight is going to be difficult to place over hurdles, travels well and finds nothing, needs a real sharp track. Today it went as it should with Barizan leading them a merry dance and coming home clear but did make some mistakes and one day this will undo him, be warned! Jigsaw Man won aswell but not as easy as I thought he would, the EW bet William Hogarth (DHRC) pushed him all the way and at one time thought he was going to go past, anyway the winner must come on for that and still remains one to follow I reckon. Bets; 220 Lud: Dots Delight 1pt (5/2 Bet365 Bog) lost 420 Lud: Brett Vale 2pts (11/8 Bet365 Bog) lost 440 Ch: Barizan 3pts (1/3 Bet365 Bog) Won 550 Ch: The Jigsaw Man 2pts (5/4 Bet365 Bog)Won Stakes: 738.00pts Returns: 737.78pts Profit : -0.22 pts R.O.I. : -0.03% Top Rated Stakes : 212 pts Returns: 207.18 pts Profit: -4.82pts R.O.I : -2.27%

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 240 Cheltenham 100 Billie Magern, 93 Risk, 93 Baddam Good class event this with the Nicholls horse Picture This fav at the moment, his novice hurdle form isnt that spectacular to be honest but did win a novice chase here so has the scope. Baddam has done nothing wrong over timber winning his races quite well, this is tougher. Billie Magern has done very well over the summer but has been busy and hopefully is still fresh enough to show his best. Risk has improved since a small operation and got the full AP drive to win last time, i'm sure he will try and win this from the front. 145 Kelso 99 McMurrough, 87 Skylancer, 87 Jewelled Dagger McMurrough certainly has the form to win this but was a bit one paced on his debut run last week, hopefully will be fully wound up today. Skylancer will find this hard to give the weight, his win at Sedgefield looked good but the form has been let down since. Jewelled Dagger ran a nice race on his debut at Perth and should be more prominent today. 255 Kelso 91 Ifbutandwhy, 90 Canadian Blaze, 40 Art Bank Very poor race, the Irish challenger Canadian Blaze has some fair form and is the hot favourite but wouldnt want to take a short price for big money personally. Ifbutandwhy ran a decent race some time back and if he can reproduce that would go close. The Johnson debutant is obviously feared too. 440 Kelso 87 Nocturnal Knight, 85 Itstooearly, 75 Le Platino Another moderate race with Nocturnal Knight looking the most reliable at the moment, his run behind Blacktoft was fair in the context of this race. Itstooearly could run well and Grand Diamond is capable but was beaten in a claimer last time out. Bets; 240 Ch: Billie Magern 1pt (10/3 PP Bog) 145 Kel: McMurrough 3pts (Evens PP Bog) 255 Kel: Canadian Blaze 1pt (6/5 Bet365 Bog) 440 Kel: Nocturnal Knight 1pt (3/1 Bet 365 Bog)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up tomorrow Kempton 220 89 Alazan, 78 Mohanad, 72 Strong Storm This should be straight forward for Alazan, he won well last time although he had to make his own running and was still wandering about a bit and made the odd error. Mohanad and Strong Storm have shown a bit of promise but will need to step up a lot. 325 Kempton 95 Press The Button, 90 Cootehill, 88 Australia Day Fascinating race featuring three of my ones to follow this season, Cootehill has been busy and taking on lesser opposition so is passed over this time. Australia Day was really impressive when winning his debut and has since gone back to the flat and ran well, the track will suit this one. Press The Button has been the most impressive of all the novices for me so far, winning two races at Huntingdon very easily, this will be tougher no doubt but cant be faulted and must be followed until beaten. 510 Kempton 89 Balthazar King, 87 The Big Orse, 83 Torta Nel Cielo Balthazars King finally got his head in front last time at Ffos Las but doesnt look a complete natural to me and I said at the time he may struggle with a penalty, well he meets a promising one in The Big Orse here and he ran well behind Kangaroo Court last season and if fit enough could be the one to upset the previous winner. 300 Fontwell 90 Consulate, 87 Blacktoft, The race has lost some of its appeal with Dinarius and Horseshoe Reef being withdrawn, this leaves debutant Theres No Panic with an easier task than he thought. A good bumper win from High Gales who has gone on to win a couple of hurdle races looks even better now and will be a warm order to beat Consulate and Blacktoft. Blacktoft surprised me last time and improved to win a fair race while Consulate has been pulled out of a couple of races due to the ground but before that ran ok but does make mistakes to often. Bets; Kem 220: Alazan 3pts (1/2 VCBet Bog) Kem 325: Press The Button 5pts (2/1 WH Bog) Kem 325: Australia Day 3pts (11/10 Lad Bog) Kem 510: The Big Orse 1pt (13/8 WH Bog) Fon: 300: Theres No Panic 1pt (8/13 Bet365 Bog)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Not a great weekend, started off with Billie Magern falling when well beaten, a long season done for him. The winner Benbane Head was a surprise and could be useful. Over at Kelso McMurrough isnt the horse he was last year for whatever reason and is best left alone for now. Skylancer won well under a penalty but hardly a tough race as it turned out. Canadian Blaze and Nocturnal Knight just confirmed the strength of the Irish form and saved a poor day, they are only moderate and will continue to pick off the weak races up north at the likes of Hexham, Carlisle etc.. Sunday was desperate with Australia Day falling at the first and soemthing amiss with Press The Button, he hung throughout which he hadnt done before so the run has to be ignored and now puts question marks on his next run which is frustrating. Coothill was left to win the race as he liked. In the first Alazan went off far to freely and paid the price with Mohanad picking him off, this was a big improvement on his debut run. Balthazar King beat the The Big Orse in a match, it was clearly fitness that gained the day and I know who I would bet if they met again soon. For the second time in three days a well backed newcomer bit the dust which just shows you have to jump to win at this game, its alright being well reated on the flat or winning a good bumper, a lesson learnt early on on the season, the losses were minmal though on the whole. The top rated ones continue to hold their own and although the selections were not that great the amount of seconds and fallers give me plenty of encouragement so all is not too gloomy. Bets; 240 Ch: Billie Magern 1pt (10/3 PP Bog) lost 145 Kel: McMurrough 3pts (Evens PP Bog) 2nd 255 Kel: Canadian Blaze 1pt (6/5 Bet365 Bog) Won 11/8 440 Kel: Nocturnal Knight 1pt (3/1 Bet 365 Bog) Won Kem 220: Alazan 3pts (1/2 VCBet Bog) 2nd Kem 325: Press The Button 5pts (2/1 WH Bog) 2nd Kem 325: Australia Day 3pts (11/10 Lad Bog) fell Kem 510: The Big Orse 1pt (13/8 WH Bog)2nd Fon: 300: Theres No Panic 1pt (8/13 Bet365 Bog) fell Stakes: 757.00pts Returns: 744.16pts Profit : -12.84 pts R.O.I. : -1.7% Top Rated Stakes : 220 pts Returns: 216.59 pts Profit: -3.41pts R.O.I : -1.6%

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 220 Plumpton 91 Capall Eile, 82 Mid Valley, 78 Natural Action Ex flat horses are dominating the market, Gunslinger and the 100+rated Fairmile making their debuts, hard to know which way to look at the race but no doubt that Capall Eile has the best hurdle form, even he has doubts as he has been novice chasing since and not very well at that. Of the bigger prices, Geoffdaw is worth a look, ran well when 5th on his debut, Natural Action could improve and Mid Valley needs to put his last run behind him, before that was doing ok. 250 Plumpton 88 Nur Tau, 87 Baily Storm, , 65 Jessica Baily Storm made a good impression on his debut at Stratford winning nicely and should improve further. Nur Tau showed some faor form last season and then fell on his chasing debut, questions to answer and this ground wont help either, done all his best work on soft ground. Bets; 250 Plu: Baily Strom 2pts (1/3 Bet365 Bog) 220 Plu: Geoffdaw 0.5pts EW (25/1 PP Bog) 220 Plu: Mid Valley 0.5pts EW (11/1 Bet365 Bog)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Baily Storm was being niggled some way out for a 1/4 shot, think the problem here is certain stables dont improve them from their first run as much as you might think as nowadays they get them 100% first time out, its easy to ver estimate a horses chance. Top rated Nur Tau had form and experience and it told in the end. Three ex flat horses filled the frame in the other race with the selections finishing 4th and 5th which is the way its going at the mo, the winner Whenever looked quite impressive and could go on to make a useful recruit. Bets; 250 Plu: Baily Strom 2pts (1/3 Bet365 Bog) 2nd 220 Plu: Geoffdaw 0.5pts EW (25/1 PP Bog) 4th 220 Plu: Mid Valley 0.5pts EW (11/1 Bet365 Bog) 5th Stakes: 760.00pts Returns: 744.16pts Profit : -15.84 pts R.O.I. : -2.1% Top Rated Stakes : 222 pts Returns: 221.09 pts Profit: -0.91pts R.O.I : -0.6%

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 210 Exeter 86 Thedeboftheyear, 83 Ballyvesey, 81 Love Of Tara Plenty in with chances here and the market is headed by a Nicholls debutant, he will have to be above average to win first time here and maybe worth taking on. Not sure with what though as Thedeboftheyear has a poor run to forget, Balleyvesey comes back to hurdles after disappointing over fences and Dawn At Sea has been handicapping and wont find running off level weights as enjoyable. 240 Exeter 89 Haulden Caulfield, 86 Tayarat, 64 Over The Hill Nightmare this with only a few with form and loads of potentially decent types from the bumper field. Hauldon Caulfield has ran respectably a few times but hasnt the scope and looks exposed while Tayarat did beat Rockys Choice so thats not too bad but the doublem penalty looks a real stopper. The hot pot is another Nicholls horse making his debut, Rebel Du Maquis ex french with some fair form, should be interesting to see how good the hype is. Strategic Approach has fell twice so far but is well regarded so if he can get round you would have to think a place is within reach in this company. Bets; 240 Ex: Strategic Approach 1pt EW (8/1 PP Bog) 210 Ex: Thedeboftheyear 1pt (9/2 Bet365 Bog)